Politics

Brexit: not the least surprised

Published

4 years ago

July 23, 2020

IF it was a tiger that went in the tank, as enthusiastically advocated by Prime Minister Johnson, it was a paper tiger. And all that does is clog up the filters and prevent the engine running. Furthermore, cleaning out the debris is a difficult and expensive job.

But that’s always the same with Johnson. He bounces onto the stage, utters some singularly inappropriate phrases, prattles incoherently for a while and then buggers off to let everyone else – anyone else – sort out the details that he can’t be bothered with (which is all of them).

And so it has come to pass that those “future relationship” talks, even with the “tiger in their tank”, have got absolutely nowhere and have broken up early over “serious” disagreements, with Michel Barnier complaining of “lack of respect and engagement by the UK”.

“Our goal was to get negotiations successfully and quickly on a trajectory to reach an agreement”, Barnier said in a statement. “However, after four days of discussions, serious divergences remain”.

That, of course, comes as absolutely no surprise. If there is any surprise to be had, it’s that the talks lasted as long as four days. There have never been any indications that Johnson has been serious about these talks, so the likelihood was always that they were going to break up in disarray.

NO NEW PROPOSALS FROM UK
Barnier says that Brussels had “listened carefully” to Johnson when he did his “thing” about tigers, and made vacuous noises about wanting a “political agreement” over the summer. And now that the talks have broken down, the recriminations flow, to the point where not much sense can be made of them.

We learn from Barnier, for instance, that the EU has recognised British “red lines”. These include the role of the ECJ, the refusal to be bound by EU law, and a fisheries agreement that recognises the UK’s sovereignty. It has thus hinted at several concessions, across the board.
This is matched by a complaint that the EU’s willingness to be flexible on its initial demands in light of the British positions had not been met with similar understanding from Downing Street over Brussels’ red lines. Downing Street needed to “reciprocate with new proposals”, the EU says.

David Frost, on the other hand, seems to be in the market for extruded verbal material, saying virtually nothing at some length. His big thing is that the British side still wants “an early understanding of the principles underlying an agreement”, which he hopes can be secured by the end of July.

SHIFTING THE BLAME
Oddly enough, the normally astute Denis Staunton for the Irish Times seems to think that the abrupt end to these talks was “not only surprising but perplexing”.

Perplexing it may be – nothing to do with Johnson is ever straightforward – but surprising it never was. The writing has been on the wall so long it is starting to fade.

Staunton, however, takes some comfort from “the language on both sides”. He says it was “restrained” and Frost’s had none of the belligerence that often characterises his rhetoric towards Brussels.

The fact that Barnier chose not to give a press conference, he says, was seen by some as another happy augury but Staunton says it wasn’t. Simply, he was deferring to Angela Merkel and Ursula von der Leyen, who gave a joint press conference later.

However, Barnier is also said to have accused British trade negotiators of “a lack of respect” and when von der Leyen and the German Chancellor got going, Merkel warned the EU Member States that they needed to be prepared for a no-deal TransEnd.

Why the tone of the two parties should thus give rise to such optimism isn’t immediately apparent. At this stage, with little to be gained either way – with only a very limited trade deal on the stocks, one of the greater concerns must be to establish a firm base for blame avoidance.

Barnier, in particular, will want to tell his domestic audience that the EU has gone the extra mile, not least because it then clears the way for the EU to do what it always does – screw the Brits.

A WEAK, UNLOVELY THING
Team Johnson, from the look of it, is away with the fairies anyway. And with Frost apparently trotting off to a new job at the end of the month (or not), he has good reasons for not starting a spat that he can’t finish.

But what makes this more than a little bit redundant – and so utterly tedious – is that we’re almost down to the level of two bald men fighting over a comb. Any deal done – if there is one done – must be measured not by what it includes but what is left out. So very little can be agreed in the time that anything delivered will be a weak, unlovely thing.

But the real giveaway is that the UK has yet to set out plans for how it wants an agreement to work, on areas as diverse its own state aid regime, to a fully functioning fishing policy.

Throughout the entire Brexit period the UK stance has been to let the EU make the running, and then knock down what it offers. There is only so much of that one can take before even the most patient of negotiators begins to feel they are being taken for mugs.

JOHNSON GOING THROUGH THE MOTIONS
Yet, on fishing, in particular, Barnier is saying that there needs to be a “sustainable and long-term solution” on fisheries, taking into account the needs of European fishermen for certainty over their livelihoods. An effective all-encompassing dispute settlement mechanism is also necessary, to ensure both sides stick to their obligations.

Here, the issue is – as it is elsewhere – that the British government doesn’t have the first idea of how to manage a modern fishery. The Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAFF) has given way to Defra, which doesn’t even have “fisheries” in its title. Any expertise there was in the department has long gone.

Something about which we haven’t been hearing much of late is also of importance – governance. A little while back, this was of some importance, with the EU wanting a single, over-arching agreement, with standard rules and institutions, and a common dispute procedure.
Now we don’t seem to hear so much of this, but that doesn’t mean it is no longer important. Most likely, Barnier has given up on trying to get any sense out of Team Johnson and is just going through the motions.

THE EU CAN WAIT
The thing for sure here is that he doesn’t need to throw his toys out of the pram. All he has to do is wait until after December 31, and watch the Brits having hissy-fits when they discover what being outside the internal market really means.

In time – and perhaps when there is a different administration – Barnier (or his successor) can come back and we can all start talking again. Then perhaps the UK will have people who are prepared to behave like adults and look anew at what sort of relationship we need with our closest neighbours.

Until then, we are going to see a lot of this sort of ritual dance. It may die down during the holiday period and pick up the tempo as the autumn turns to winter. And there may be a last flurry of activity in the dying days of December, although that will be for show. Any agreement has to be ratified, so a last-minute deal is not on the cards.

Meanwhile, there will be more talks next week. These will be in London, another session of face-to-face meetings. I don’t expect we’ll get much more out of them than we did this week. If we do, then that really will be a surprise.

This article is reproduced by kind permission of Dr Richard North from his blog http://eureferendum.com/.

Dr Richard North is a veteran supported of Britain’s exit from the EU and co-author, with Christopher Booker, of ‘The Great Deception: The Definitive History of the EU’ and before that co-author of two other books on EU-related matters.

He was group research director of the EDD group in the European Parliament and has written numerous pamphlets and articles on EU matters.

News

Campaigners urge Welsh Government to adopt proportional representation for Local Elections

Published

4 hours ago

November 14, 2024

Tom Sinclair

CAMPAIGNERS are calling on the Welsh Government to introduce the Single Transferable Vote (STV) system for local elections, following moves by two councils to shift away from the First Past the Post (FPTP) system being blocked on technical grounds.

Yesterday (Nov 14), Ceredigion Council voted narrowly, with an 18 to 17 majority, in favor of adopting STV. This follows Gwynedd Council’s decision last month, where 65% of councillors backed the move. However, both councils have been prevented from implementing STV due to a requirement for a two-thirds majority under the Local Government and Elections (Wales) Act 2021.

In recent consultations, public support for STV has been overwhelming, with over 70% in Gwynedd and 67% in Ceredigion favoring the change. Only Powys Council rejected the proposal, despite 60.5% of its respondents supporting STV. Campaigners argue that the current system deprives voters of representation, citing that over 100,000 people were denied a vote in the 2022 elections due to uncontested seats.

The Electoral Reform Society Cymru (ERS Cymru) highlights the contrast with Scotland, where the introduction of STV for local elections in 2007 has significantly reduced uncontested seats. According to ERS Cymru, Scotland has had fewer uncontested seats in the last four elections combined than Gwynedd Council recorded alone in 2022.

Jess Blair, Director of ERS Cymru, said:

“Decisions made in council chambers affect everyone in those areas, so every vote should count. It’s absurd that councils choosing STV are blocked by a technicality, leaving them stuck with an outdated system that denies representation to thousands. The Welsh Government must act to avoid repeating the undemocratic outcomes of the last elections.”

Campaigners are now calling on the Welsh Government to introduce STV across all councils in Wales, ensuring representation that reflects the electorate’s wishes.

Politics

Alarm over Wales’ domestic violence ‘epidemic’

Published

6 hours ago

November 14, 2024

Chris Haines, ICNN Senedd reporter

DOMESTIC violence against women and girls is the scourge of Wales and a national emergency, Senedd Members warned.

Mabon ap Gwynfor said Welsh police reported more than 45,000 cases of domestic abuse in 2022/23 and almost 10,000 sexual offences the previous year, with many more unrecorded.

Leading a Senedd debate, the Plaid Cymru politician challenged a tendency to believe rural Wales is an exception, with domestic abuse “limited” to urban areas only.

“The evidence shows otherwise,” he said. “Rates of domestic abuse in north Wales are higher than those in the city of London.

“North Wales even faces the same level of sexual crimes as Greater Manchester, which has a population five times the size.”

Mr ap Gwynfor added: “I am afraid the election of President Trump in the US is going to make things much worse as he makes misogynistic attitudes acceptable again.”

He said victims wait a year for support in Cardiff or Merthyr but four months in Swansea, asking: “How can we justify someone’s trauma being dependent on a postcode lottery?”

He told the Senedd that 16 children per 1,000 in north Wales are being seen by sexual assault referral centres compared with a rate of 2.9 per 1,000 in London.

Mr ap Gwynfor said the NSPCC found one in five children have experienced domestic violence, with Childline Cardiff holding 4,000 counselling sessions in the past year.

Calling for urgent devolution, he warned that prosecution statistics suggest sexual violence has effectively been legalised, with victims let down and public trust eroded.

Labour’s Joyce Watson said a vigil will be held outside the Senedd on November 25 to mark White Ribbon Day, the international day for ending violence against women and children.

Ms Watson highlighted her party’s pledge to halve violence against women and girls over the next decade, calling for funding from Westminster to further the aim in Wales.

She told the Senedd: “It is a national threat and it is an epidemic. There’s no getting away from that. It’s deep-rooted, it’s wide-reaching.”

Sioned Williams raised the NSPCC’s calls for sustainable long-term funding for specialist support for children and young people who are survivors of domestic violence.

Her Plaid Cymru colleague Luke Fletcher warned of the “corrosive” effect of social media, calling for a crackdown on misogynistic content targeted at young men.

Responding to the debate on November 13, Jane Hutt pointed to progress made in tackling violence against women and girls but she recognised “so much more needs to be done”.

Ms Hutt, who is Wales’ social justice secretary, highlighted horrifying statistics from July showing that two million women in the UK are victims of male violence every year.

She described domestic violence as a national emergency, with one woman killed by a man every three days and the number of recorded offences up 37% in the past five years.

She hailed the 20th anniversary of the Live Fear Free helpline, a free 24/7 service run by Welsh Women’s Aid and funded by the Welsh Government.

Ms Hutt said she raised evidence of failures in the justice system with Jess Phillips during a meeting with the UK minister

Politics

Senedd debates Eluned Morgan’s first 100 days as First Minister

Published

13 hours ago

November 14, 2024

Chris Haines, ICNN Senedd reporter

SENEDD members debated Eluned Morgan’s record following her first 100 days, with the First Minister rejecting claims she has failed to stand up for Wales.

Andrew RT Davies led a Conservative debate on the eve of November 14, which marks Eluned Morgan’s hundredth day in office.

He accused the First Minister of letting the country down, pointing to the withdrawal of the universal winter fuel allowance for pensioners and warnings of 4,000 premature deaths.

The leader of the opposition also criticised Labour’s decision to raise national insurance contributions for employers, with unemployment in Wales at 5.3% and rising.

Mr Davies said 4,000 patients have been added to NHS waiting lists since the First Minister took office in August, with a total of 614,000 people now waiting for treatment.

He told the Senedd: “That is a damning indictment of government failure here …. That is not standing up for patients here in Wales, it’s not standing up for clinicians, and it’s not standing up, importantly, for the workforce.”

Rhun ap Iorwerth said Baroness Morgan’s first 100 days have shown little evidence of a change in direction from the Welsh Government.

The Plaid Cymru leader said: “By any objective measure, nothing has fundamentally changed in those 100 days.”

He said Baroness Morgan has no plan to grow the economy nor tackle a crisis in the NHS.

Mr ap Iorwerth accused the First Minister of failing to make the case for replacing the Barnett formula, devolving the Crown Estate, and compensating Wales for HS2 spending.

He said: “I’m afraid that what we’ve seen is Labour in Welsh Government, under the new First Minister, shifting into the mode of defending their masters at Westminster….

“A fundamental difference between Plaid Cymru and Labour is that we will never let Westminster diktat hamper our ambitions for Wales.”

Labour’s Hefin David was unconvinced by the 100-day measure of success, which was coined by former US President Franklin Roosevelt in the 1930s.

He said: “It worked for him; I’m not sure it’s going to work so much across modern politics, which moves so quickly and so differently.”

He suggested the next Senedd election in 18 months will be a much better yardstick.

The Caerphilly Senedd Member pointed out that Wales’ first female First Minister, from Ely, Cardiff, one of the poorest parts of the UK, succeeded against the odds.

Describing Baroness Morgan as a “listening First Minister”, Dr David joked: “She’s the only First Minister who gives me a cwtch every time I see her. I can see Mark Drakeford getting a little worried there. I’m not expecting anything, finance minister.

“But I do think it demonstrates the warmth of Eluned Morgan.”

Responding to the debate, Eluned Morgan reeled off a list of achievements including £28m to cut waiting times, £13m on better end of life care and a new north Wales medical school.

She said £7.7m has been invested in a specialist burns and plastic surgery centre at Swansea’s Morriston Hospital, serving ten million people from Aberystwyth to Oxford.

Baroness Morgan lauded a “landmark” £1bn investment in the redevelopment of Shotton Mill, Deeside, protecting 137 jobs and creating 220 more.

She claimed the Labour Welsh and UK Governments also secured a better deal for Tata steelworkers, accusing the Tories of failing to budget for a £80m transition fund.

“This is a lengthy list,” she said. “But it could be longer and it will be longer as we continue to deliver…. The first 100 days demonstrates how Welsh Labour is delivering real investment, real jobs, real support for communities – not promises and pledges but delivery.

“I am so proud of everything this government has already delivered since I became First Minister and I’m optimistic about what we can achieve as we move forward.”