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Politics

Universal Income plans depend on Westminster

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MARK DRAKEFORD’s announcement that the Welsh Government plans to trial Universal Basic Income in a few locations in Wales captured headlines in online media.

The First Minister was variously said to have ‘hinted’ at a trial or announced a trial would take place.

However, nobody should have been surprised by the First Minister’s announcement.

Not only was the policy contained in Labour’s Manifesto for May 6’s election – a bit more than ’a hint’ – but also the principle of holding a trial in Wales was enthusiastically passed by the last Welsh Parliament in September last year. It was a policy in Plaid Cymru’s election manifesto and Labour’s; so, whether Labour went it alone in Government or was in partnership with Plaid Cymru, a trial was on the cards.

WG KNOWS WESTMINSTER HAS THE FINAL WORD

However, whether the Welsh Government can carry out a trial is beyond its immediate control.

Headlines that said the Welsh Government WILL carry out even limited Universal Basic Income trials are also jumping the gun.

When the Senedd debated a motion brought forward by Jack Sargeant MS on September 30, 2020, here is what the Finance Minister Rebecca Evans had to say about it: “The Welsh Government would be open to such a trial taking place in Wales, but we have to be realistic that such a trial would not be possible without the active cooperation of the UK Government, and this is because of the interaction of universal basic income with the tax and benefit system. 

“If such a trial were offered, we would also require that conditions were met to ensure that the Welsh Government and this Senedd were able to play a significant role in the design, governance and accountability of any scheme. 

“Were the Welsh Government to make payments to individuals without the cooperation of the UK Government, this could simply result in them being ineligible for existing benefits or paying more in tax. 

“Aside from the fact that this would not then be a proper test of the effect of an unconditional payment, it would result in the transfer of resources from the Welsh Government to the UK Government. 

“And, sadly, our recent experience of the UK Government’s approach to the taxation of our payments to social care workers doesn’t suggest that we should expect their active cooperation.”

In short, the Welsh Government needs Westminster’s ‘active cooperation’ to make a trial possible.

Without Westminster’s cooperation, those who get the Universal Basic Income could (are almost certain to) lose all of their entitlements to other benefits, tax credits, and other means-tested benefits. They could also have to pay tax on it.

WHAT IS UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME?

Universal Basic Income is not a new idea. Its long history stretches back to antiquity and has been a feature of both romantic and progressive political theory for centuries.

At its simplest, Universal Basic Income does away with a raft of welfare benefits. It substitutes them with a single payment of a fixed amount.

Schemes that guarantee a basic income, short of enough to live on, exist in a few US states and a handful of national economies. However, those are more of an income floor for those who are otherwise dependent on welfare benefits. They are not an actual Universal Basic Income.

A national trial in Finland ended after two years with no definitive finding of better outcomes for those who received UBI over those who did not.

The Covid pandemic increased interest in the idea of UBI in continental Europe. At the same time, the US used a series of relatively modest income replacement initiatives to stop people’s descent into poverty (or into deeper poverty). 

The UK’s furlough scheme was – essentially – a basic income guarantee but not genuinely universal in nature. 

A major multi-national academic study published in 2017 found that UBI probably improved some health outcomes and increased the likelihood of children attending school. 

However, the same report also concluded the evidence for positive outcomes from UBI-type schemes was ‘very uncertain’.

THE COST TO WALES

The main deterrent to a truly Universal Basic Income is cost.

• If a full universal basic income were paid in Wales to all working-age adults and set at the level of the official living wage, the cost would be around £35 billion a year. 

• If set at the level of the real living wage, the cost would be around £40 billion. 

• For illustration, those figures are around twice the size of the Welsh Government’s budget. As a further comparison, income tax in Wales raises in total just over £5 billion. 

• Of course, the costs could be much reduced if universal basic income were paid at a lower rate. However, payment at a lower rate would reduce its attractiveness.

Those last four points are not our own words. They are the Welsh Government’s position as set out in 2020 by its own Finance Minister.

Nothing has changed those figures since September 30, 2020.

They demonstrate the prohibitive and unsupportable cost of UBI to Wales without massive and systemic change across the whole UK.

SCOTCH MIST

As an illustrative example of the timescales and complexity of introducing even a pilot scheme, we only need to look at Scotland.

In September 2017, the Scottish Government announced it would support local authority areas to explore a Citizen’s Basic Income Scheme by establishing a fund to help regions to develop their proposals further and establish appropriate testing. 

The funding offered was £250,000 over the two financial years 2018/19 and 2019/20. 

Four local authority areas: Fife Council, City of Edinburgh Council, Glasgow City Council and North Ayrshire Council, worked together to research and explore the feasibility of local pilots of Basic Income in Scotland. 

Notlaunch a basic income. Explore its feasibility.

Over three and a half years since the Scottish Government’s announcement, there is still no UBI trial in Scotland.

Putting such a scheme in place depends, yet again, on Westminster’s cooperation.

A report on the progress of the feasibility study notes’ any pilot [must] have the necessary support to influence the future of national policy and the role of Department of Work and Pensions (DWP), HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC), HM Treasury and the NHS will be vital in the design and implementation of a Basic Income pilot.’

Three years to design and complete a feasibility study into a limited trial in four local authority areas in Scotland combined with the need to wait for Westminster approval does not suggest a quick fix.

And if it’s not a rapid process in Scotland, it will scarcely be quicker in Wales.

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Council’s Planning Enforcement Team demolish ‘illegal development’

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PEMBROKESHIRE COUNTY COUNCIL has taken direct action to remove a lean-to that was built against a neighbour’s listed building without consent.

Paul Mason built the lean to without planning permission or listed building consent from the Council contrary to section 43 of Planning (Listed Buildings and Conservation Areas) Act 1990.

As a result, the Council issued a Listed Buildings Enforcement Notice on June 17th 2021.

The notice related to ‘the construction of a rendered blockwork outbuilding within the curtilage of 1, Newport Road, Fishguard, Pembrokeshire, and the attachment of this building to the neighbouring property at 1, Glyn-y-Mel Road, Lower Town, Fishguard.’

The notice required demolition of the outbuilding and removal of all the resultant materials from the site and reinstatement of the gable end wall of 1, Glyn-y-Mel Road, to its former condition within three months.

Mr Mason appealed against but a Planning Inspector from Planning Decisions Environment Wales subsequently dismissed the appeal and upheld the Council’s enforcement notice on December 22nd 2022.

The Inspector considered that the outbuilding had a detrimental effect on the special character and setting of the listed buildings and that its removal was necessary to restore the architectural character of the listed building to its former condition.

After the appeal, the Council brought a prosecution for non-compliance with the requirements of the Notice.

Mr Mason pleaded guilty on the day of the trial on December 7th 2023 and was required to pay a fine, costs and victim surcharge.

Following prosecution, the owner failed to carry out the demolition of the outbuilding and so the Council’s Planning Enforcement Team stepped in and undertook direct action by way of contractors to remove the illegal outbuilding.

The outbuilding was removed on March 6, 2023 and the architectural character of the listed building has been restored.

The cost of the demolition will be recovered from Mr Mason.

Following the action, Cllr Jon Harvey, Cabinet Member for Planning and Housing Delivery, said: “It is sad that this situation had to get to this point and this is the first time in more than 10 years that the Council has been forced to take direct action.

“However, it was clear that the defendant was not willing to comply with the terms of the enforcement notice requiring removal so we have taken the necessary action.

“I thank our teams involved, including the Planning Enforcement and Legal officers and hope this action demonstrates our commitment to enforcing breaches of planning control and upholding the integrity of the decision making process.”

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Politics

Senedd Members quiz Transport Scotland on free buses for under-22s

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THE SENEDD’S petitions committee took evidence on the feasibility of Wales following Scotland’s lead by making buses free for under-22s.

MSs quizzed Transport Scotland officials about the Scottish Government’s free bus pass for children and young people aged five to 21, which was introduced in January 2022.

Petitioners, Wales’ children’s commissioner, and the Welsh Youth Parliament have all added their voices to a chorus of calls for a similar free travel scheme in recent years.

Gillian Kelly, from Transport Scotland, said the smartcard encourages younger generations to develop sustainable travel habits early, contributing to efforts to tackle the climate crisis.

Ms Kelly, who is corporate programmes team leader, told Senedd members the free bus pass also helps reduce child poverty by improving access to education and healthcare.

She told the committee 123 million journeys have so far been undertaken under the scheme, which was part of a budget deal between the Scottish Government and Scottish Greens.

She explained the age limit was extended from 19 to 22 in line with national minimum wage rates and over-16s can apply directly rather than through a parent, guardian or carer.

Ms Kelly said the Scottish scheme has so far cost £249m, which is mostly made up of the cost of reimbursing bus companies with the rates negotiated annually with the industry.

Paul White, director of the Confederation of Passenger Transport Scotland, the trade association for the bus and coach sector, described the scheme as fantastic.

He said: “I think the real prize that we hope to see at the end of it, is that when people age out of the scheme they continue to use public transport.”

Mr White told committee members the pass has led to a move from home to school transport to commercial bus routes, creating a saving for councils.

He said bus operators are left no worse off, with Transport Scotland committing to paying for journeys, which has allayed fears growth in passenger numbers could outpace the budget.

Carole Stewart, head of bus strategy at Transport Scotland, said an evaluation of the first year found positive progress towards long-term policy goals.

She told the meeting on March 18 that the pass has opened opportunities for young people to access universities, colleges, apprenticeships and employment.

Mr White added that Scotland has experienced a drop in travel via concessionary schemes for older and disabled people, with passenger numbers at 80% of pre-pandemic levels.

“The free travel scheme has essentially plugged that hole,” he said.

Asked about lessons learned from the rollout, Ms Kelly pointed to teething issues with the complexity of the initial online application process.

Ms Stewart said Scotland has seen an uptick in antisocial behaviour on buses but the majority of young people use the offer with respect for drivers and other passengers.

Mr White echoes concerns about an increase in instances of antisocial behaviour, including substance misuse, abuse of drivers or passengers and damage to vehicles.

He warned antisocial behaviour makes recruitment and retention of drivers more difficult, and he suggested it could be a factor in suppressing travel by older and disabled people.

The industry representative said another lesson learned was the need for clear processes of engagement between Police Scotland and bus operators to tackle problem hotspots.

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Politics

Wales’ First Minister: What happens next?

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THIS WEEK will see Mark Drakeford formally step down, with his successor as Wales’ new first minister set to be appointed and a cabinet reshuffle on the horizon.

Following Vaughan Gething’s victory in the Welsh Labour leadership contest, here’s what you can expect as the formal resignation and nomination process gets under way.

Mark Drakeford announced he would be stepping down on 13 December, exactly five years to the day since he was appointed Wales’ first minister in 2018.

He will take his final first minister’s questions on Tuesday, 19 March from 1.30pm.

The outgoing First Minister will be quizzed about his record in office, with questions tabled on the 20mph limit, disused mines and Wales’ place in the world.

Mr Drakeford will then formally tender his resignation to King Charles III.

He is scheduled to give a 30-minute resignation statement in the Senedd at about 3.45pm, with party leaders and MSs expected to take this opportunity to pay tribute.

On Wednesday March 20, the Welsh Government will inform Elin Jones, the Senedd’s speaker or Llywydd, as soon as the Palace confirms the resignation has been accepted.

Ms Jones will then make a written statement to notify the Senedd that this has been received, which marks the point at which Mark Drakeford has formally resigned.

Nominations for the next First Minister will then take place in the Senedd’s chamber or Siambr during the afternoon’s plenary session.

Exact timings are to be confirmed on Wednesday morning but it will either be the first item on the agenda at 1.30pm or after climate change and health questions at nearer 3pm.

If only Vaughan Gething is nominated, he will be declared the First Minister-elect.

But if more than one nomination is made, every Senedd member – except Ms Jones and her deputy, David Rees – will vote by roll call with the nominee requiring a simple majority.

The Llywydd will recommend the Welsh Parliament’s nominee to the King and the First Minister-elect will address the Senedd.

The First Minister will be appointed by Royal Warrant, a legal document authorised by the King, before being sworn in at the Welsh Government’s Cathays Park headquarters.

Mr Drakeford was the only nominee after the 2021 election but when he was first appointed in 2018, Plaid Cymru and the Tories put forward their leaders as a symbolic gesture.

However, after the 2016 election, the vote for First Minister between Carwyn Jones and Leanne Wood was tied until the deadlock was broken a week later.

The current parliamentary arithmetic means a tied vote is a possibility but it remains unlikely as it would require agreement between the Tories, Plaid Cymru and Lib Dems.

Vaughan Gething is expected to reshuffle the cabinet in the first week of the Senedd’s Easter recess, which begins on Monday, March 25.

Ministers remain in post in the interim but the counsel general, the Welsh Government’s chief legal adviser, will cease to hold office when the First Minister is appointed.

While Mr Gething will want to put his own stamp on the government, most of the Labour group backed his opponent, Jeremy Miles, so he will need to build some bridges.

Mr Miles, who is education minister, is likely to be offered a ministerial post as a result.

However, a handful of MSs could leave the frontbenches, with Lee Waters already having confirmed he is set to leave his post as deputy minister for transport.

Eluned Morgan and Rebecca Evans, Wales’ health and finance ministers respectively, both backed Mr Gething for leader and will likely stay in the cabinet.

Lynne Neagle and Dawn Bowden, deputy ministers for mental health and culture respectively, also supported his leadership bid and could be promoted.

Jayne Bryant and Ken Skates, who ran Mr Gething’s campaign, could be set for new roles.

Mr Skates stood down as economy minister in 2021 after eight years in government to spend more time in his Clwyd South constituency.

Alyn and Deeside MS Jack Sargeant, and Cynon Valley MS Vikki Howells, could be among the fresh faces in the running – as could Caerphilly MS Hefin David.

The new First Minister can appoint a temporary counsel general with Mick Antoniw, the incumbent, seen as the frontrunner. 

Uniquely, this role can be filled by a non-Senedd member but Theodore Huckle, a barrister, was the first, and so far only, independent professional counsel general from 2011 to 2016.

In the days following the Welsh Government reshuffle, the Conservatives are expected to rearrange their own frontbench team in the Senedd.

Wales’ new First Minister will take their first FMQs following the Easter recess on April 16.

That week is likely to see changes to Senedd committee memberships and a motion to formally recommend a new counsel general to the King.

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