News
Covid cases at highest locally since January
R-rate as high as before the last lockdown
Positive tests rise
Vaccination programme reduces hospitalisations
THE LOCAL rate of community transmission of Covid-19 is now as high as it was when Wales entered lockdown in January this year
The Herald investigated a suggestion that the number of cases of confirmed Covid infections was increasing, and businesses were caught between a general shortage of staff and a rising number of staff absences caused by Covid-19.
THE CURRENT NUMBERS
Data shared with The Herald by Hywel Dda UHB shows that the R-rate, used as an indicator for Covid-19’s spread, is now 1.44.
That means that every person infected with Covid transmits the virus to more than 1 person.
Earlier this year, before lockdown eased, the R-rate was around 0.8.
The rate is now headed towards an autumn and winter peak, the same as 2020.
In the last month, the number of positive tests for the killer virus in the Hywel Dda UHB area has significantly increased.
On August 25 alone, the Board recorded 264 confirmed new cases.
In each of the last three weeks to August 25, the number of confirmed new cases has risen.
That fits the national picture, which shows cases rising at a much sharper rate now than they did at the beginning of the second wave in October last year.
However, and importantly, the rates for hospitalisation for those infected with Covid have fallen.
That suggests that the Welsh Government’s vaccination programme has loosened the link between Covid infection and the type of serious sickness that needs hospital treatment as a result.

Although the Welsh Government has extended its vaccination programme to include young people, take-up among that group remains relatively low.
Swayed by scare stories and the sort of pseudo-science peddled online, some in older age groups have either been deterred from taking the vaccine when it’s offered or refused it altogether.
Reaching those groups, potentially at greater risk than younger people, and addressing the gap in vaccine take-up among BAME individuals, remains a major challenge for the Welsh Government.
To take two data points four weeks apart, in the week to August 3, there were five Covid deaths in Wales.
In the week ending August 31, that number was 18.
Five new deaths were recorded on August 31 alone.
The drivers for those increases are undoubtedly this summer’s relaxation of restrictions on social distancing, the opening of nightclubs and bars, and a significant drop in the number of people wearing masks or taking the same precautions as they did before Wales moved to Level Zero.
Those factors, combined with the greater infectiousness of Covid’s Delta variant, mean that Wales heads into the autumn – and the flu season – with more sick people and a greater likelihood of abnormal seasonal strains on NHS services.
SCHOOLS’ RETURN LIKELY TO HAVE AN IMPACT
As schools and further education colleges return from the summer holiday and universities return later in September, the number of young people mixing together will inevitably rise.It follows that the increased number of contacts increases the possibility of infection with Covid-19.Headteachers have criticised new guidance from the WelshGovernment for schools as being both too late in the day and contradictory.
Laura Doel, director of school leaders’ union, NAHT Cymru, said: “We welcome the fact that schools have until 20 September to transition to the new framework.
“However, there are elements of the framework that are contradictory and likely to lead to confusion.
“The framework states that Wales is at low risk, yet the Welsh Government instructed schools to continue with lateral flow testing on secondary pupils and all school staff. According to today’s framework, that is a practice for when we are at high risk.
“The advice refers to rising hospital admissions and the seven-day rolling incidence of infection, which appears to put us in the moderate risk category.
“Added to this, there is a lack of differentiation between the measures to take, depending on the risk level. When we are talking risk, when we are planning for what we want to be a sustainable return, we must be absolutely clear of the risk level.”
In the three-weekly Covid update delivered last week, Mark Drakeford said: “Coronavirus has not gone away. While we are able to remain at Alert Level Zero, we must not abandon all the simple measures which have done so much to keep us all safe.”
When questioned, the First Minister refused to rule out reimposing restrictions if the situation deteriorated.
Russell George, the Shadow Health Minister, responded to that prospect: “Talk of reimposing restrictions is completely unnecessary at this stage.
“Moving forward we need to ensure all public health decisions in Wales are taken on the best possible data, with a focus on hospitalisation figures and a clear breakdown of those who are admitted due to COVID or other illnesses, and also those who acquire it in a hospital setting.”
In July, an S4C investigation revealed a quarter of all deaths from Covid-19 in Wales arose from hospital transmission.
PRESSURES AGAINST LOCKDOWN
Both the UK and Welsh Governments are determined to avoid any further lockdown or reimposition of restrictions now relaxed.
Much, however, depends on how long vaccination programmes, including booster shots and an extended flu vaccination programme in Wales, can keep a lid on the number of hospitalisations and whether a new and more infectious strain arises.
The issue is especially acute in the UK, which has fewer Intensive Care Beds per head of population and fewer Intensive
Care specialists than any other Western European nation.
At the start of the pandemic, Wales’s ICU bed capacity was 153.
That is 4.9 for every 100,000 of our population.
In Croatia, a country of approximately the same population and around the same size of Wales, the number of ICU beds was 14.7 for every 100,000 of population.
Any further pressure on Wales’s sensitive NHS capacity will have an inevitable knock-on effect on the availability and promptness of diagnoses and treatments for chronic conditions, including heart disease and cancer.
The picture is further complicated by a yawning gap between the demand for social care staff and the number of applicants for job vacancies.
Those pressures, combined with the economic costs of lockdown, act as an effective brake on governments’ range of actions.
And that’s setting aside the inevitable political fallout of new restrictions’ imposition, especially in Westminster.
Health
Resident doctors in Wales vote to accept new contract
RESIDENT doctors across Wales have voted to accept a new contract, with 83% of those who took part in a referendum backing the agreement, according to BMA Cymru Wales.
The contract includes a four per cent additional investment in the resident doctor workforce and introduces a range of reforms aimed at improving training conditions, wellbeing and long-term workforce sustainability within NHS Wales. The BMA says the deal also supports progress towards pay restoration, which remains a central issue for doctors.
Key changes include new safeguards to limit the most fatiguing working patterns, measures intended to address medical unemployment and career progression concerns, and reforms to study budgets and study leave to improve access to training opportunities.
Negotiations between the BMA’s Welsh Resident Doctors Committee, NHS Wales Employers and the Welsh Government concluded earlier this year. Following a consultation period, a referendum of resident doctors and final-year medical students in Wales was held, resulting in a clear majority in favour of the proposals.
Welsh Resident Doctors Committee chair Dr Oba Babs Osibodu said the agreement marked a significant step forward for doctors working in Wales.
He said: “We’re proud to have negotiated this contract, which offers our colleagues and the future generation of doctors safer terms of service, fairer pay, and better prospects so that they can grow and develop their careers in Wales.
“This contract will help to retain the doctors already in training, and also attract more doctors to work in Wales, where they can offer their expertise and benefit patients.”
Dr Osibodu added that the BMA remains committed to achieving full pay restoration and acknowledged that challenges remain for some doctors.
“Whilst this contract sets the foundations for a brighter future for resident doctors in Wales, we recognise that there are still doctors who are struggling to develop their careers and secure permanent work,” he said. “We need to work with the Welsh Government and NHS employers to address training bottlenecks and underemployment.”
The Welsh Government has previously said it recognises the pressures facing resident doctors and the importance of improving recruitment and retention across NHS Wales, while also highlighting the need to balance pay agreements with wider NHS funding pressures and patient demand.
The new contract is expected to be phased in from August 2026. It will initially apply to doctors in foundation programmes, those in specialty training with unbanded rotas, and new starters, before being rolled out to all resident doctors across Wales.
Crime
Swansea man jailed for online child sex offence dies in prison
A SWANSEA man who was jailed earlier this year for attempting to engage in sexual communication with a child has died while in custody.
Gareth Davies, aged 59, of the Maritime Quarter, was serving an 18-month prison sentence after being convicted in May of sending sexually explicit messages to what he believed was a 14-year-old girl. The account was in fact a decoy used as part of an online safeguarding operation.
The court heard that Davies began communicating with the decoy between November and December 2024 and persistently pursued the individual, later attempting to arrange a face-to-face meeting. He was arrested after being confronted by the decoy operators.
Davies had pleaded not guilty but was convicted following a trial. At the time of sentencing, police described the messages as extremely concerning and said his imprisonment was necessary to protect children.
It has now been confirmed that Davies died at HMP Parc on Wednesday (Nov 27) while serving his sentence.
The Prisons and Probation Ombudsman has launched an independent investigation into the death, which is standard procedure in all cases where someone dies in custody. No cause of death has been released at this stage.
A coroner will determine the circumstances in due course.
Farming
Welsh Conservatives warn climate plans could mean fewer livestock on Welsh farms
THE WELSH CONSERVATIVES have challenged the Welsh Government over climate change policies they say could lead to reductions in livestock numbers across Wales, raising concerns about the future of Welsh farming.
The row follows the Welsh Government’s decision, alongside Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Liberal Democrats, to support the UK Climate Change Committee’s Fourth Carbon Budget, which sets out the pathway towards Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
The Carbon Budget, produced by the independent Climate Change Committee (CCC), states that meeting Net Zero targets will require a reduction in agricultural emissions, including changes to land use and, in some scenarios, a reduction in livestock numbers.
During questioning in the Senedd, the Welsh Conservatives pressed the Deputy First Minister and Cabinet Secretary for Climate Change and Rural Affairs on whether the Welsh Government supports reducing livestock numbers as part of its climate strategy.
Speaking after the exchange, Welsh Conservative Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Rural Affairs, Samuel Kurtz MS, said the Welsh Government could not distance itself from the implications of the policy it had backed.
Mr Kurtz said: “By voting in favour of these climate change regulations, Labour, Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats have signed up to the UK Climate Change Committee’s call to cut livestock numbers in Wales, and they cannot dodge that reality.
“The Deputy First Minister’s smoke-and-mirrors answers only confirm what farmers already fear: that Labour, along with their budget bedfellows in Plaid and the Lib Dems, are prepared to sacrifice Welsh agriculture in pursuit of climate targets.”
He added that the issue came at a time of growing pressure on the farming sector, pointing to uncertainty over the proposed Sustainable Farming Scheme, the ongoing failure to eradicate bovine TB, nitrogen pollution regulations under the Nitrate Vulnerable Zones (NVZs), and proposed changes to inheritance tax rules affecting family farms.
The Welsh Government has repeatedly said it does not have a target to forcibly reduce livestock numbers and has argued that future emissions reductions will come through a combination of improved farming practices, environmental land management, and changes in land use agreed with farmers.
Ministers have also said the Sustainable Farming Scheme, which is due to replace the Basic Payment Scheme, is intended to reward farmers for food production alongside environmental outcomes, rather than remove land from agriculture.
The UK Climate Change Committee, which advises governments across the UK, has stressed that its pathways are based on modelling rather than fixed quotas, and that devolved governments have flexibility in how targets are met.
However, farming unions and rural groups in Wales have warned that policies focused on emissions reduction risk undermining the viability of livestock farming, particularly in upland and marginal areas where alternatives to grazing are limited.
The debate highlights the growing tension between climate targets and food production in Wales, with livestock farming remaining a central part of the rural economy and Welsh cultural identity.
As discussions continue over the final shape of the Sustainable Farming Scheme and Wales’ long-term climate plans, pressure is mounting on the Welsh Government to reassure farmers that climate policy will not come at the expense of the sector’s survival.
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