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Covid cases at highest locally since January

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R-rate as high as before the last lockdown

Positive tests rise

Vaccination programme reduces hospitalisations

THE LOCAL rate of community transmission of Covid-19 is now as high as it was when Wales entered lockdown in January this year

The Herald investigated a suggestion that the number of cases of confirmed Covid infections was increasing, and businesses were caught between a general shortage of staff and a rising number of staff absences caused by Covid-19.

THE CURRENT NUMBERS

Data shared with The Herald by Hywel Dda UHB shows that the R-rate, used as an indicator for Covid-19’s spread, is now 1.44.

That means that every person infected with Covid transmits the virus to more than 1 person.

Earlier this year, before lockdown eased, the R-rate was around 0.8.

The rate is now headed towards an autumn and winter peak, the same as 2020.

In the last month, the number of positive tests for the killer virus in the Hywel Dda UHB area has significantly increased.

On August 25 alone, the Board recorded 264 confirmed new cases.

In each of the last three weeks to August 25, the number of confirmed new cases has risen.

That fits the national picture, which shows cases rising at a much sharper rate now than they did at the beginning of the second wave in October last year.

However, and importantly, the rates for hospitalisation for those infected with Covid have fallen.

That suggests that the Welsh Government’s vaccination programme has loosened the link between Covid infection and the type of serious sickness that needs hospital treatment as a result.

Although the Welsh Government has extended its vaccination programme to include young people, take-up among that group remains relatively low.

Swayed by scare stories and the sort of pseudo-science peddled online, some in older age groups have either been deterred from taking the vaccine when it’s offered or refused it altogether.

Reaching those groups, potentially at greater risk than younger people, and addressing the gap in vaccine take-up among BAME individuals, remains a major challenge for the Welsh Government.

To take two data points four weeks apart, in the week to August 3, there were five Covid deaths in Wales.
In the week ending August 31, that number was 18.

Five new deaths were recorded on August 31 alone.

The drivers for those increases are undoubtedly this summer’s relaxation of restrictions on social distancing, the opening of nightclubs and bars, and a significant drop in the number of people wearing masks or taking the same precautions as they did before Wales moved to Level Zero.

Those factors, combined with the greater infectiousness of Covid’s Delta variant, mean that Wales heads into the autumn – and the flu season – with more sick people and a greater likelihood of abnormal seasonal strains on NHS services.

SCHOOLS’ RETURN LIKELY TO HAVE AN IMPACT

As schools and further education colleges return from the summer holiday and universities return later in September, the number of young people mixing together will inevitably rise.It follows that the increased number of contacts increases the possibility of infection with Covid-19.Headteachers have criticised new guidance from the WelshGovernment for schools as being both too late in the day and contradictory.

Laura Doel, director of school leaders’ union, NAHT Cymru, said: “We welcome the fact that schools have until 20 September to transition to the new framework.
“However, there are elements of the framework that are contradictory and likely to lead to confusion.
“The framework states that Wales is at low risk, yet the Welsh Government instructed schools to continue with lateral flow testing on secondary pupils and all school staff. According to today’s framework, that is a practice for when we are at high risk.
“The advice refers to rising hospital admissions and the seven-day rolling incidence of infection, which appears to put us in the moderate risk category.
“Added to this, there is a lack of differentiation between the measures to take, depending on the risk level. When we are talking risk, when we are planning for what we want to be a sustainable return, we must be absolutely clear of the risk level.”

In the three-weekly Covid update delivered last week, Mark Drakeford said: “Coronavirus has not gone away. While we are able to remain at Alert Level Zero, we must not abandon all the simple measures which have done so much to keep us all safe.”

When questioned, the First Minister refused to rule out reimposing restrictions if the situation deteriorated.

Russell George, the Shadow Health Minister, responded to that prospect: “Talk of reimposing restrictions is completely unnecessary at this stage.
“Moving forward we need to ensure all public health decisions in Wales are taken on the best possible data, with a focus on hospitalisation figures and a clear breakdown of those who are admitted due to COVID or other illnesses, and also those who acquire it in a hospital setting.”

In July, an S4C investigation revealed a quarter of all deaths from Covid-19 in Wales arose from hospital transmission.

PRESSURES AGAINST LOCKDOWN

Both the UK and Welsh Governments are determined to avoid any further lockdown or reimposition of restrictions now relaxed.

Much, however, depends on how long vaccination programmes, including booster shots and an extended flu vaccination programme in Wales, can keep a lid on the number of hospitalisations and whether a new and more infectious strain arises.

The issue is especially acute in the UK, which has fewer Intensive Care Beds per head of population and fewer Intensive

Care specialists than any other Western European nation.

At the start of the pandemic, Wales’s ICU bed capacity was 153.

That is 4.9 for every 100,000 of our population.

In Croatia, a country of approximately the same population and around the same size of Wales, the number of ICU beds was 14.7 for every 100,000 of population.

Any further pressure on Wales’s sensitive NHS capacity will have an inevitable knock-on effect on the availability and promptness of diagnoses and treatments for chronic conditions, including heart disease and cancer.

The picture is further complicated by a yawning gap between the demand for social care staff and the number of applicants for job vacancies.

Those pressures, combined with the economic costs of lockdown, act as an effective brake on governments’ range of actions.

And that’s setting aside the inevitable political fallout of new restrictions’ imposition, especially in Westminster.

 

News

Paris in February made easy with special direct Air France flights from Cardiff

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TRAVELLING to Paris has never been simpler for Welsh holidaymakers, with Air France launching a series of special direct weekend services from Cardiff Airport to the French capital this month.

The limited-period flights offer a convenient, non-stop journey of under two hours to Paris, giving passengers more time to enjoy the city’s culture, cuisine and famous landmarks without the hassle of connections or long road transfers to other UK airports.

Timed perfectly for winter city breaks and Valentine’s getaways, the services run between February 13 and February 16, making them ideal for long weekends.

February is widely considered one of the best times to visit the French capital, with fewer crowds and a relaxed, romantic atmosphere. Visitors can explore world-famous attractions including the Eiffel Tower, the Arc de Triomphe and Notre-Dame Cathedral, browse galleries at the Louvre and Musée d’Orsay, or simply enjoy cafés, bistros and Michelin-starred dining across the city.

With Valentine’s Day falling during the operating period, the flights offer couples an easy escape for scenic walks along the Seine, memorable meals and classic Parisian experiences.

Jon Bridge, CEO of Cardiff Airport, said: “We’re delighted to offer direct flights to such a vibrant city for Valentine’s weekend. Cardiff Airport is expanding its reach, giving customers an easy, friendly travel experience and fantastic options. We’ve listened to passenger demand and are excited to make this opportunity possible, with more to come from Cardiff.”

Seats are available now via airfrance.co.uk and through travel agents. As availability is limited, early booking is recommended.

Flight schedule

Cardiff (CWL) to Paris (CDG)

• Feb 13 – AF4149 – 6:20pm → 8:50pm
• Feb 14 – AF4149 – 3:20pm → 5:50pm
• Feb 15 – AF4149 – 9:20am → 11:50am
• Feb 15 – AF4151 – 9:00pm → 11:30pm
• Feb 16 – AF4149 – 9:20am → 11:50am
• Feb 16 – AF4151 – 5:50pm → 8:20pm

Paris (CDG) to Cardiff (CWL)

• Feb 13 – AF4148 – 5:00pm → 5:30pm
• Feb 14 – AF4148 – 2:00pm → 2:30pm
• Feb 15 – AF4148 – 8:00am → 8:30am
• Feb 15 – AF4150 – 7:40pm → 8:10pm
• Feb 16 – AF4148 – 8:00am → 8:30am
• Feb 16 – AF4150 – 4:30pm → 5:00pm

 

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Education

Language commissioner launches probe into school closure impact on Welsh

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THE WELSH Language Commissioner has launched a formal investigation into claims that the proposed closure of a rural Carmarthenshire primary school did not properly assess the impact on the Welsh language.

Campaign group Cymdeithas yr Iaith confirmed this week that the Welsh Language Commissioner will examine whether Carmarthenshire County Council complied with its legal duties when producing a language impact assessment linked to plans to close Ysgol Llansteffan.

The council issued a statutory notice last year proposing to shut the village school at the end of the summer term as part of wider education reorganisation. A final decision had been expected this spring.

However, the investigation now creates fresh uncertainty over the timetable.

Complaint over ‘insufficient assessment’

Cymdeithas yr Iaith says it submitted a formal complaint arguing that the council failed to produce a sufficiently detailed assessment of how the closure could affect Welsh-medium education and the wider Welsh-speaking community.

The group claims the authority selectively used data to support closure rather than examining all available evidence objectively.

Two key concerns were raised.

Firstly, campaigners argue there may not be enough places in neighbouring Welsh-medium schools to accommodate pupils from Llansteffan and nearby housing developments, potentially forcing some families into English-medium provision.

Secondly, they say the assessment did not meaningfully consider the school’s role as a community hub or explore ways the site could generate income and support local Welsh-language activities.

On behalf of local members, Ffred Ffransis said: “There will not be places for all the Llansteffan children, nor for the children of the new housing estates, in other Welsh-medium schools in the area.

“The most cost-effective way of providing sufficient places locally in Welsh-medium education is by keeping open Ysgol Llansteffan and making better use of the buildings, including environmental education and community use.”

Formal investigation

In a letter to the group, the commissioner confirmed an investigation will be held under Section 71 of the Welsh Language Measure to determine whether the council complied with Welsh language standards.

The probe could take up to three months.

Campaigners believe this may delay implementation of the closure and could require the council to revisit its assessment and potentially carry out a fresh statutory consultation.

Ffransis said: “Even if the council now decided to make a full and meaningful assessment, there would likely have to be a new consultation. The original decision may have been taken on a faulty basis.”

He added that similar concerns had been raised about language impact assessments connected to other proposed school closures in the county.

Council position

The council has previously said that school reorganisation proposals are driven by falling pupil numbers, financial pressures and the need to ensure sustainable, high-quality education.

Authorities across Wales have faced difficult decisions in recent years as rural rolls decline and building maintenance costs rise.

It is expected the council will respond formally to the commissioner’s investigation in due course.

What happens next

If the commissioner finds that language standards were not properly followed, enforcement steps could be taken and the process delayed or revisited.

For families in Llansteffan, the outcome may determine whether their local Welsh-medium school remains open beyond the summer term.

The Herald has contacted Carmarthenshire County Council for comment.

Further updates will follow as the investigation progresses.

 

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Business

First Minister criticised after ‘Netflix’ comment on struggling high streets

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Government announces 15% support package but campaigners say costs still crushing hospitality

PUBS, cafés and restaurants across Wales will receive extra business rates relief — but ministers are facing criticism after comments suggesting people staying home watching Netflix are partly to blame for struggling high streets.

The Welsh Government has announced a 15% business rates discount for around 4,400 hospitality businesses in 2026-27, backed by up to £8 million in funding.

Announcing the package, Welsh Government Finance Secretary Mark Drakeford said: “Pubs, restaurants, cafés, bars, and live music venues are at the heart of communities across Wales. We know they are facing real pressures, from rising costs to changing consumer habits.

“This additional support will help around 4,400 businesses as they adapt to these challenges.”

The announcement came hours after Eluned Morgan suggested in Senedd discussions that changing lifestyles — including more time spent at home on streaming services — were contributing to falling footfall in town centres.

The remarks prompted political backlash.

Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats, Jane Dodds, said: “People are not willingly choosing Netflix over the high street. They are being forced indoors because prices keep rising and wages are not.

“Blaming people for staying at home is an insult to business owners who are working longer hours just to survive.”

Industry groups say the problem runs deeper than consumer behaviour.

The Campaign for Real Ale (CAMRA) welcomed the discount but warned it would not prevent closures.

Chris Charters, CAMRA Wales director, said: “15% off for a year is only the start. It won’t fix the unfair business rates system our pubs are being crushed by.

“Welsh publicans need a permanent solution, or doors will continue to close.”

Across Pembrokeshire, traders have repeatedly told The Herald that rising energy bills, wage pressures and rates — rather than a lack of willingness to go out — are keeping customers away.

Several town centres have seen growing numbers of empty units over the past year, with independent shops and hospitality venues reporting reduced footfall outside the main tourist season.

While ministers say the relief balances support with tight public finances, business groups are calling for wider and longer-term reform.

Further debate on rates changes is expected later this year.

 

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