News
Covid cases at highest locally since January
R-rate as high as before the last lockdown
Positive tests rise
Vaccination programme reduces hospitalisations
THE LOCAL rate of community transmission of Covid-19 is now as high as it was when Wales entered lockdown in January this year
The Herald investigated a suggestion that the number of cases of confirmed Covid infections was increasing, and businesses were caught between a general shortage of staff and a rising number of staff absences caused by Covid-19.
THE CURRENT NUMBERS
Data shared with The Herald by Hywel Dda UHB shows that the R-rate, used as an indicator for Covid-19’s spread, is now 1.44.
That means that every person infected with Covid transmits the virus to more than 1 person.
Earlier this year, before lockdown eased, the R-rate was around 0.8.
The rate is now headed towards an autumn and winter peak, the same as 2020.
In the last month, the number of positive tests for the killer virus in the Hywel Dda UHB area has significantly increased.
On August 25 alone, the Board recorded 264 confirmed new cases.
In each of the last three weeks to August 25, the number of confirmed new cases has risen.
That fits the national picture, which shows cases rising at a much sharper rate now than they did at the beginning of the second wave in October last year.
However, and importantly, the rates for hospitalisation for those infected with Covid have fallen.
That suggests that the Welsh Government’s vaccination programme has loosened the link between Covid infection and the type of serious sickness that needs hospital treatment as a result.
Although the Welsh Government has extended its vaccination programme to include young people, take-up among that group remains relatively low.
Swayed by scare stories and the sort of pseudo-science peddled online, some in older age groups have either been deterred from taking the vaccine when it’s offered or refused it altogether.
Reaching those groups, potentially at greater risk than younger people, and addressing the gap in vaccine take-up among BAME individuals, remains a major challenge for the Welsh Government.
To take two data points four weeks apart, in the week to August 3, there were five Covid deaths in Wales.
In the week ending August 31, that number was 18.
Five new deaths were recorded on August 31 alone.
The drivers for those increases are undoubtedly this summer’s relaxation of restrictions on social distancing, the opening of nightclubs and bars, and a significant drop in the number of people wearing masks or taking the same precautions as they did before Wales moved to Level Zero.
Those factors, combined with the greater infectiousness of Covid’s Delta variant, mean that Wales heads into the autumn – and the flu season – with more sick people and a greater likelihood of abnormal seasonal strains on NHS services.
SCHOOLS’ RETURN LIKELY TO HAVE AN IMPACT
As schools and further education colleges return from the summer holiday and universities return later in September, the number of young people mixing together will inevitably rise.It follows that the increased number of contacts increases the possibility of infection with Covid-19.Headteachers have criticised new guidance from the WelshGovernment for schools as being both too late in the day and contradictory.
Laura Doel, director of school leaders’ union, NAHT Cymru, said: “We welcome the fact that schools have until 20 September to transition to the new framework.
“However, there are elements of the framework that are contradictory and likely to lead to confusion.
“The framework states that Wales is at low risk, yet the Welsh Government instructed schools to continue with lateral flow testing on secondary pupils and all school staff. According to today’s framework, that is a practice for when we are at high risk.
“The advice refers to rising hospital admissions and the seven-day rolling incidence of infection, which appears to put us in the moderate risk category.
“Added to this, there is a lack of differentiation between the measures to take, depending on the risk level. When we are talking risk, when we are planning for what we want to be a sustainable return, we must be absolutely clear of the risk level.”
In the three-weekly Covid update delivered last week, Mark Drakeford said: “Coronavirus has not gone away. While we are able to remain at Alert Level Zero, we must not abandon all the simple measures which have done so much to keep us all safe.”
When questioned, the First Minister refused to rule out reimposing restrictions if the situation deteriorated.
Russell George, the Shadow Health Minister, responded to that prospect: “Talk of reimposing restrictions is completely unnecessary at this stage.
“Moving forward we need to ensure all public health decisions in Wales are taken on the best possible data, with a focus on hospitalisation figures and a clear breakdown of those who are admitted due to COVID or other illnesses, and also those who acquire it in a hospital setting.”
In July, an S4C investigation revealed a quarter of all deaths from Covid-19 in Wales arose from hospital transmission.
PRESSURES AGAINST LOCKDOWN
Both the UK and Welsh Governments are determined to avoid any further lockdown or reimposition of restrictions now relaxed.
Much, however, depends on how long vaccination programmes, including booster shots and an extended flu vaccination programme in Wales, can keep a lid on the number of hospitalisations and whether a new and more infectious strain arises.
The issue is especially acute in the UK, which has fewer Intensive Care Beds per head of population and fewer Intensive
Care specialists than any other Western European nation.
At the start of the pandemic, Wales’s ICU bed capacity was 153.
That is 4.9 for every 100,000 of our population.
In Croatia, a country of approximately the same population and around the same size of Wales, the number of ICU beds was 14.7 for every 100,000 of population.
Any further pressure on Wales’s sensitive NHS capacity will have an inevitable knock-on effect on the availability and promptness of diagnoses and treatments for chronic conditions, including heart disease and cancer.
The picture is further complicated by a yawning gap between the demand for social care staff and the number of applicants for job vacancies.
Those pressures, combined with the economic costs of lockdown, act as an effective brake on governments’ range of actions.
And that’s setting aside the inevitable political fallout of new restrictions’ imposition, especially in Westminster.
Health
Phone calls to reduce GP visits for 42% of patients this winter
NEW research from the Royal Voluntary Service has shown that a simple phone call could significantly impact well-being, reducing GP visits by 42% among patients who receive regular telephone support.
The charity urges those feeling isolated this winter, particularly the elderly, to use telephone support services as a way to improve health and free up GP appointments, potentially reducing waiting times. It is estimated that if people experiencing loneliness in later life reduced their GP visits by just one appointment a year, this could free up 588,000 appointments annually.
As winter approaches, the Royal Voluntary Service reports that isolation can sharply increase, especially for adults over 75, with nearly half (47%) of people in this age group feeling lonelier in the colder months. Among those who live alone, one in six say they feel forgotten during winter, and 20% report having no one to turn to for emotional support.
In addition to loneliness, older generations face several winter worries, including increased heating costs, cited by 55% of respondents, and reduced ability to go out, which 29% said they dreaded as winter sets in.
To address these challenges, Royal Voluntary Service has launched the Stay Safe, Warm and Well campaign in partnership with Yakult. The campaign provides a guide for practical and emotional winter preparation, encouraging sign-ups for telephone support services and offering access to the Virtual Village Hall online community for events and activities. Practical advice on money-saving and energy-saving tips is also available through the guide.
Royal Voluntary Service Ambassador Elaine Paige, who has herself made support calls for the charity, described the positive impact these calls can have. “A warm, friendly phone call can transform someone’s day. Some conversations leave you smiling long after the call ends—something we could all use, especially in winter. For those facing the season alone, there are amazing people ready to remind you that you’re not alone,” she said.
The charity’s support services match volunteers with individuals across the UK for friendly chats, reducing isolation and boosting mental health. Catherine Johnstone CBE, Chief Executive of Royal Voluntary Service, said: “The feedback that conversations with volunteers are helping people to visit their GP less is testament to the value of connection.”
Yakult Marketing Manager Reshma Patel added: “Our research with Royal Voluntary Service shows that one in four adults over 75 feel they’d benefit from practical and emotional support over winter. We are committed to helping people access the Stay Safe, Warm and Well guide to support their overall well-being.”
Crime
Welsh shop workers face ‘surge in shoplifting linked violence and abuse’ says union
A NEW survey by retail trade union Usdaw has revealed disturbing figures on the abuse, threats, and violence endured by Welsh shop workers, with incidents increasingly linked to shoplifting. Released during Respect for Shop Workers Week, which runs from November 11 to 17, the statistics highlight a troubling trend that is impacting thousands of retail employees.
Usdaw’s survey, based on responses from over 4,000 retail staff, shows that in the past year:
- 69% experienced verbal abuse.
- 45% were threatened by customers.
- 17% were assaulted.
Usdaw General Secretary Paddy Lillis commented on the findings, saying: “Shop workers deserve far more respect than they receive. These reports from Welsh retail staff make grim reading. It is shocking to see over two-thirds of our members subjected to abuse, threats, and violence. Seven in ten of these incidents are related to theft, much of it tied to addiction and organised crime.”
Usdaw’s survey suggests that shoplifting is increasingly becoming a flashpoint for violence. Many shop workers report encountering hardened criminals who appear to steal goods “to order” or to fund addictions. According to the union, incidents are on the rise across Wales, with police-reported shoplifting up by 33% in the past year.
Usdaw member testimonies paint a vivid picture of the dangers faced on the shop floor:
- One respondent described being “spat at, pushed against a wall, punched, and threatened with a knife.”
- Another reported that, after refusing to sell alcohol, they were told to “F**k off” and threatened with a beating by a group of five.
- Others spoke of being punched, spat on, and verbally abused, with threats that often left lasting emotional scars.
New measures on the horizon
Usdaw has been calling for greater legal protection for retail workers for years, and it appears these calls are finally being heard. The recent Crime and Policing Bill, announced in the King’s Speech, proposes to:
- End the £200 threshold for prosecuting shoplifters, which has been a source of frustration for retailers.
- Introduce town centre banning orders for repeat offenders.
- Allocate funding for tackling organised shoplifting and increase police presence in shopping areas.
“We welcome these new measures and hope they will provide much-needed protection,” said Mr. Lillis. “After 14 years of neglect under successive Tory governments, we are encouraged by the steps the new Labour government is taking to address the retail crime epidemic.”
As Christmas approaches—a time when retail crime tends to peak—Usdaw is urging the public to “respect shop workers” and remain calm as stores become busier.
Usdaw, which represents around 360,000 members, primarily in retail, launched its Freedom From Fear Campaign to tackle the growing issue of violence against shop workers. The final results of the 2024 survey are expected in March 2025.
Charity
Milford Haven RNLI celebrates heartfelt donation from Neyland Ladies Choir
MILFORD HAVEN RNLI Fundraising Group received a generous donation of over £1,000 from Neyland Ladies Choir this October, marking a touching tribute to Mrs. Dorothy Beckett, one of the RNLI’s longest-standing supporters.
The Neyland Ladies Choir held a special concert at St. Mary’s Church on Waterloo Road, Hakin, to celebrate Dorothy Beckett’s 90th birthday. A lifelong supporter of the Royal National Lifeboat Institution (RNLI), Dorothy has played a crucial role in lifeboat fundraising in the Milford Haven area, dating back to the 1970s. She was instrumental in establishing the Hakin Point RNLI fundraising group, which has raised over £500,000 to support the RNLI’s lifesaving work.
The concert’s proceeds were presented in a moving ceremony at Bethesda Baptist Church in Neyland. Accepting the donation on behalf of the RNLI were Steve Lewis, Chairman of the fundraising group, and Thomas Kehoe, Deputy Coxswain of the Angle Lifeboat.
Adding to the evening’s celebrations, Alice Coleman, RNLI Community Manager, presented Dorothy with the Long Service Medal, recognizing her fifty years of dedication to the institution. This award, given by the RNLI, honors Dorothy’s unwavering commitment to saving lives at sea.
“Thank you, Neyland Ladies Choir and Dorothy Beckett,” said the RNLI in a heartfelt message to the community. “Your support and dedication mean the world to us.”
The Milford Haven RNLI Fundraising Group encourages supporters to share and spread the word, hoping that Dorothy’s legacy inspires continued community support.
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