STARTING September 17, the Welsh Government’s broad 20-mph speed restriction will replace the current 30-mph norm in urban areas. Designed to boost road safety, the decision is a double-edged sword, balancing between reduced casualties and potentially significant financial and operational ramifications.

Professor Stuart Cole, CBE, Emeritus Professor of Transport Economics and Policy, University of South Wales, has explained his several concerns, set out below, regards the new legislation.

Operational Challenges & Financial Strains

Bread’s morning delivery offers a window into potential hiccups. Timed for 30-mph speeds, reduced speed limits can lower van productivity, possibly raising prices for end consumers. Urban bus passengers, too, are bracing for longer commutes. The need for extra vehicles, more driver shifts, and anticipated increased hourly rates for drivers paint a challenging financial picture for bus companies.

The modern bus, optimized for speeds of 30-mph or 40-mph, now faces a disruptive 20-mph mandate. This shift could necessitate overriding automatic gearing systems, potentially undermining safety objectives and leading to higher maintenance expenses.

A Conservative Perspective

In the backdrop of these insights, Natasha Asghar MS, the Welsh Conservative Shadow Minister for Transport, voiced her concerns. She remarked, “The observations by Professor Stuart Cole underscore a significant oversight by the Labour Government.“

“For over a year, I’ve highlighted potential drawbacks — from slower emergency response times to increased delivery durations, and even the likelihood of bus route adjustments. As we near this policy’s roll-out, these unforeseen consequences, combined with a £4.5 billion expenditure by Labour, paints a worrying picture for the Welsh economy,” Natasha expressed.

Seeking Solutions

The 20-mph limit aims to tilt preference scales from cars to buses. To truly succeed, bus priority schemes on congested routes, like Cardiff’s Castle street and Swansea’s Kingsway, could be vital. But with electric buses demanding almost triple the price of conventional ones, financial challenges loom large.

In this scenario, bus companies, looking at a requisite profit margin of 10% on local tenders, are hesitant to invest significantly, especially with the fiscal support measures like the Welsh Government’s Bus Transition Fund set to end by March 2024.

Conclusion: Striking A Balance

With potential bus service reductions, especially in rural Wales, stagnant passenger numbers, and escalating costs, the bus sector faces a challenging trifecta.

While the Welsh Government’s intentions echo safety and environmental concerns, perhaps a staggered approach could have been more judicious. Considering a rollout in high-casualty zones, introducing supportive bus priority measures, and delaying the scheme’s onset until the bus industry finds firmer financial footing might have catered to all stakeholders more effectively.