Jeremy Miles, the prominent figure vying for the position of Wales’ next first minister against Vaughan Gething, has recently revealed his comprehensive manifesto, outlining a vision for sustainable economic growth. His proposals include initiatives that cover a wide range of sectors, from housing and healthcare to education and transportation. While his proposed changes are intended to increase the well-being of Welsh citizens, the implications can extend to wider economic spheres, even affecting the forex (foreign exchange) market. As a forex trader, it’s essential to anticipate the market’s movement if Jeremy Miles becomes Wales’s first minister. Let’s take a closer look. 

Homes and the Rent-To-Own Scheme

One of the key proposals from Jeremy Miles is the rent-to-own scheme, which will allow renters to become homeowners. Allowing individuals to transition from renters to homeowners by building up a lump sum towards a deposit while renting their home can increase the number of homeowners in Wales. The Shared Ownership scheme also allows individuals to buy property shares and pay rent on what remains.

The rent-to-own scheme can benefit those trading forex because it will stimulate activity in the real estate market, eventually affecting currency valuations tied to housing sectors. Increased demand for housing due to the rent-to-own scheme can lead to higher property prices and construction activity. These reflect economic conditions and investor sentiment that forex traders monitor. 

Also, increased consumer spending on homeownership can increase currency value due to interest rates and inflation expectations. The changes in the real estate market can lead to positive developments like increased homeownership rates and stable housing markets, which attract foreign investment and improve investor sentiment and risk appetite. 

Economic Changes and Business Support

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Jeremy Miles is also moving towards providing financial incentives for new and recent graduates to set up businesses in Wales. He will be pushing a ‘Make It In Wales’ campaign to attempt to bring Welsh people living in other countries back home. His focus is to create quality and sustainable jobs, innovate the rural economy, and place emphasis on AI, biotech and sustainability.

The incentives for entrepreneurship among graduates will lead to job creation and economic growth, which can impact currency movements. Entrepreneurship also has different economic benefits, including being advantageous to forex traders. This is because it leads to higher economic activity and consumer confidence, all of which are indicators for forex traders to consider.

It will also improve the balance of payments in Wales, which is a critical determinant of the currency value. As businesses expand and unemployment reduces, it leads to higher exports and lower imports and attracts foreign investments for a more robust local currency.

Education 

Miles has highlighted the importance of education in his manifesto, as he aims to increase the standards and investment in schools. He has promised to increase the percentage of the Welsh government budget spent on schools.

This can benefit forex traders because increased spending on education can boost investor confidence in Wales as a sign of a government’s commitment to economic growth. With investors gaining confidence, they are more likely to invest in its currency, which can influence its standing in the forex market. A growing economy also leads to higher interest rates, attracting foreign capital that can benefit forex traders.

At the same time, it’s important to note that Miles’ plan to increase spending on education can lead to the Welsh government borrowing additional funds to finance these initiatives and impact inflation expectations, which will put downward pressure on the currency and affect forex traders in this way. 

Transportation Infrastructure

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Furthermore, Miles emphasised the importance of investing in infrastructure, especially transportation. His plans include developing integrated rail and bus services and proposed initiatives to reduce congestion on major roadways.

Improving investment in transportation infrastructure can enhance connectivity and facilitate trade, which are indicators closely monitored by forex traders for their impact on currency values. Miles has mentioned that investment will be needed in rail and public transport and that he can finally use Wales’s fair share of the High Speed 2 (HS2) investment.

The expected increased investment in transportation infrastructure projects can influence the trade balances, which will appreciate the domestic currency and benefit forex traders. 

UK Re-Joining the EU Single Market

Forex traders will be strongly impacted if Jeremy Miles achieves his goal of pushing the UK to rejoin the EU single market after the country left during Brexit. In his recent interviews, he supported the idea, saying that he would strongly advocate for this with Sir Keir Starmer, the labour leader, if he became the first minister of Wales. 

The UK’s potential re-entry into the EU single market will be a positive development for forex traders, as it can make the GBP more stable and strengthen it against other currencies, boosting investor sentiment, economic growth and forex trades. However, remember that negotiating this can cause the currency market to be volatile in the interim. 

Can Forex Traders Be Confident in Jeremy Miles’ Manifesto for Wales? 

Jeremy Miles’ manifesto has outlined ambitious proposals to foster sustainable economic growth and solve societal challenges in Wales. The implications will extend to other economic spheres like the forex market. It’s recommended for forex traders to closely monitor the developments in Wales since, if Jeremy Miles wins, the potential impact on currency valuations and trading opportunities will be significant.