Reliance on US interceptors leaves gaps as Iran’s reach grows

BRITAIN would struggle to defend itself against a long-range ballistic missile attack and would instead rely heavily on American systems based in Eastern Europe and at sea — with no guarantee of success.

That is the stark reality emerging after Iran’s attempted strike on a UK–US base at Diego Garcia on Saturday (March 21), a move that caught many world leaders off guard and marked a significant escalation in capability.

Concerns are further heightened by Iran’s development of larger space launch vehicles, including the Simorgh, Zuljanah, Ghaem-100 and Qased systems, which on paper demonstrate ranges of between 2,200 km and up to 6,000 km, with payload capacities of up to 1,000 kg. While these rockets are officially designed to place satellites into orbit rather than deliver warheads, they use the same multi-stage technology and propulsion systems found in long-range ballistic missiles. Defence analysts have long warned that such programmes provide a clear pathway to intercontinental strike capability, raising the prospect that parts of Europe — and potentially even the UK — could fall within reach if these technologies are adapted for military use.

No UK shield over Britain

The UK has no dedicated system to shoot down long-range ballistic missiles over its own territory.

While RAF Fylingdales provides early warning and tracking, it cannot intercept incoming threats. Britain’s air defence network — including RAF jets and ground systems — is designed for aircraft, drones and cruise missiles, not high-speed ballistic weapons.

In simple terms, if a missile were heading toward a target such as Milford Haven’s energy facilities, there is no British-operated system that could reliably stop it at the last moment.

America would have to act

Instead, any interception attempt would fall to the United States.

Key assets include:

• Aegis Ashore missile defence bases in Romania and Poland
• US Navy warships equipped with SM-3 interceptors
• Wider NATO tracking and coordination systems

These systems are capable of striking a missile in space during its midcourse phase, long before it reaches the UK.

But there is a crucial limitation: they can only engage if the missile passes within range of those systems.

If the trajectory falls outside that envelope — or if no US ship is positioned correctly — there may be no interception at all.

A probability, not protection

Even when an intercept is attempted, success is far from certain.

Testing data for the SM-3 system suggests success rates of roughly 50 to 80 per cent per engagement, depending on conditions. In practice, multiple interceptors are often fired at a single target to improve the odds.

That still leaves a significant margin for failure.

In a real-world scenario involving countermeasures, technical faults or multiple missiles, the chances of at least one getting through rise sharply.

Gaps in coverage

The NATO missile defence network is not a continuous shield.

It is a patchwork of coverage zones tied to specific systems:

• Romania and Poland provide fixed land-based interception capability
• US warships offer flexible but limited coverage depending on deployment

There is no permanent protective umbrella over the UK itself.

If a missile does not pass through one of those defended zones, Britain would effectively be relying on luck and geometry.

Deterrence, not defence

Ultimately, the UK’s primary protection is not interception — it is deterrence.

Any successful strike on British soil would almost certainly trigger a major NATO response, making such an attack extraordinarily risky for any adversary.

But deterrence does not equal defence.

A growing concern

Iran’s attempted long-range strike on Diego Garcia has shifted the debate sharply.

The use of a missile capable of travelling thousands of kilometres surprised many Western leaders, who had not expected Tehran to demonstrate that level of reach in the current crisis. Although one missile failed and another was intercepted, the incident has raised fresh questions about how far Iran’s capabilities have advanced.

For years, the idea of a missile threat to Europe — let alone Britain — was largely theoretical. Now, defence analysts are treating it as a credible future risk, even if capability remains limited today.

The bottom line

The UK can detect a missile, track it, and coordinate a response — but when it comes to actually stopping it, the country would be dependent on American systems operating at distance, with no certainty of success.

If a missile ever did get through, there would be little standing between it and its target.

And that is the uncomfortable truth behind the headlines.

Colourful parade, towering creations and Victorian flair bring town centre to life

TENBY was transformed into a vibrant Victorian fantasy on Saturday (Mar 21) as hundreds of visitors descended on the town for the annual Steampunk Festival.

The highlight of the day came with the much-anticipated Peacock Parade, which saw elaborately dressed participants wind their way through Tenby’s narrow streets, drawing large crowds of spectators.

Residents and visitors lined the route, many stopping to take photos as performers in eye-catching costumes passed by. From brass goggles and top hats to military-inspired uniforms and elegant gowns, the outfits on display reflected the creativity and theatrical spirit of the steampunk scene.

Among the most striking sights were the towering pink flamingo creations, which rose high above the crowds and became an instant talking point. Musicians in period costume added to the atmosphere, playing lively tunes as they marched through the town.

Families were out in force, with children and adults alike enjoying the spectacle. Many visitors had travelled from across Wales and beyond to attend the event, which has grown in popularity in recent years and is now firmly established as a key date in Tenby’s events calendar.

The Herald understands that local businesses also benefited from the influx of visitors, with cafés, pubs and shops seeing a steady flow of customers throughout the day.

In addition to the parade, a range of activities were taking place across the town, including markets, performances and themed entertainment centred around the De Valence Pavilion.

Organisers have worked to create an inclusive and welcoming event, with many people choosing to dress up while others simply come along to enjoy the unique atmosphere.

The festival continues on Sunday, with further events planned as Tenby remains firmly in the grip of steampunk fever for the weekend.

Photos: Colourful characters take part in the Peacock Parade through Tenby on Saturday (Pic: Gareth Davies).

More than 1,200 lives lost each year as charity warns of growing public health crisis

ACCIDENTAL deaths in Wales have risen by 43% over the past decade, with more than 1,200 people now dying each year, prompting calls for urgent action from the next Welsh Government.

New figures released by the Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents (RoSPA) show that Wales now has a death rate 22% higher than the UK average, with preventable harm placing increasing pressure on the NHS and disproportionately affecting poorer communities.

Falls remain the leading cause of accidental death, accounting for nearly half of all fatalities. People in Wales are around 24% more likely to die from a fall than those elsewhere in the UK.

RoSPA has warned that the situation represents a growing public health crisis, as it launches its Stronger, Safer Wales manifesto ahead of the next Senedd election.

The charity is urging ministers to treat accident prevention as a national priority, arguing that many deaths could be avoided through relatively simple and low-cost interventions.

Accidental harm is also linked to a range of other risks, including rural road collisions, accidental poisonings, machinery incidents, and dog-related injuries.

The wider impact is significant, with preventable accidents costing the NHS billions, reducing workforce participation, and deepening inequality across Wales.

RoSPA is calling for a range of measures, including improved home safety standards, compulsory water safety education in schools, and stronger road safety interventions.

Among its proposals are mandatory eyesight tests for drivers every three years, better road markings to protect motorcyclists, and tighter regulation of unsafe or counterfeit products sold online.

The charity also wants to see national home safety programmes introduced to support vulnerable households, along with clearer responsibilities for local authorities in managing water safety risks.

Becky Hickman, Chief Executive of RoSPA, said the figures should act as a wake-up call for policymakers.

She said: “Wales is facing a clear and escalating crisis of accidental deaths, and the evidence shows the situation is worsening year on year.

“Behind every statistic is a life that could have been saved with practical, proven interventions.

“We are calling on the next Welsh Government to make accident prevention a national priority, because coordinated action will save lives, reduce inequalities and relieve pressure on the NHS.”

She added: “Accidents are not inevitable. With strong leadership and consistent standards across Wales, we can significantly reduce preventable harm.”

RoSPA says tackling the issue will require coordinated action across government, emergency services, local authorities and industry, but insists that the solutions are both achievable and cost-effective.

The charity’s manifesto is intended to shape future policy in Wales, with a focus on reducing avoidable deaths while easing pressure on overstretched public services.