New reforms could hit disability claimants hardest

THE UK GOVERNMENT has unveiled a major reform of the welfare system, aiming to save £5bn by 2030 through stricter eligibility rules for benefits such as Personal Independence Payment (PIP) and Universal Credit (UC). With 19.5% of households in Pembrokeshire claiming Universal Credit, these changes could have a significant impact locally, particularly for disabled residents.

However, early analysis suggests PIP claimants will be hardest hit. While Universal Credit recipients will see some structural changes, including the scrapping of the Work Capability Assessment (WCA) in 2028 and a permanent above-inflation rise, PIP recipients face much tougher eligibility criteria, potentially disqualifying around a million people nationwide.

Local impact on Pembrokeshire

With 26% of its population aged over 65—one of the highest proportions in Wales—and above-average disability rates, Pembrokeshire could be disproportionately affected. Many residents rely on PIP to supplement low wages or provide financial support when work is not an option.

Pembrokeshire’s economy is heavily dependent on seasonal work, tourism, and public services, with 14% of workers self-employed—many in physically demanding jobs. Health and disability benefits play a crucial role for those unable to work year-round.

Key changes announced

Universal Credit (UC)

• Above-inflation increase – Payments will rise permanently to £775 per month by 2030.
• Work Capability Assessment scrapped (2028) – Future assessments for extra support will be through PIP instead.
• Right to Try – Claimants will be encouraged to return to work without immediately losing benefits.
• Under-22s lose incapacity top-up – Young people will no longer qualify for an additional health-related payment, a move designed to deter school leavers from going straight onto benefits.

Impact: Universal Credit claimants face mixed consequences. The removal of WCA could reduce stress for those with long-term conditions, and higher payments may help some households. However, the removal of incapacity top-ups could create financial hardship for young disabled claimants.

Personal Independence Payment (PIP)

• Stricter eligibility rules – Claimants must score at least four points in one category to qualify for PIP’s daily living element.
• Up to one million people could lose support – Early estimates suggest a significant number may no longer qualify.
• No means-testing (yet), but tougher assessments – Changes may disproportionately affect those with mental health conditions and fluctuating illnesses.

Impact: Many disabled residents in Pembrokeshire may struggle to qualify for PIP, which in turn affects their Universal Credit top-ups. Those with mental health conditions, long COVID, or conditions such as multiple sclerosis and fibromyalgia may face difficulties meeting the new criteria.

What does this mean for Pembrokeshire?

• Higher risk for disabled claimants – With an aging population and a significant number of residents on disability benefits, many may lose essential support.
• Rural and seasonal work challenges – Physically demanding jobs in tourism, construction, and agriculture mean PIP is crucial for those unable to work due to health conditions.
• Potential rise in hardship – Child poverty in Pembrokeshire is already one of the highest in Wales (24.7%). If PIP claimants lose financial support, demand for food banks and social services could increase.

Local perspective

Pembrokeshire has a lower-than-average employment rate (73.8%) and high self-employment (14%), meaning many workers lack stable income or sick pay. The county also faces social care pressures, with 641 adults receiving domiciliary care. If PIP eligibility tightens, many claimants could lose both disability payments and their health-related UC top-ups, leaving some without financial support entirely.

What happens next?

The government has launched a Green Paper consultation on the reforms. However, with Labour facing internal criticism over the changes, further amendments could still be made before they take full effect.

Have your say

The Herald wants to hear from Pembrokeshire residents:

• Are you worried about losing your benefits?
• Do you think the “Right to Try” scheme will help you get back into work?
• How will these reforms impact your household?

Email The Herald with your views.

Final verdict

Pembrokeshire at higher risk – With a high disability rate, older population, and reliance on seasonal work, the county may see a rise in financial hardship due to these reforms.r say

Universal Credit claimants – Some may benefit from higher payments and no longer facing Work Capability Assessments, but young disabled people will be hit hardest.

PIP claimants – The biggest losers. Many may lose their entire benefit due to stricter scoring rules, which in turn affects their UC top-ups.

We want to hear from Pembrokeshire residents affected by these changes. Are you worried about losing your benefits? Will the new support help you get back into work? Email The Herald with your views.

THE SENEDD rejected Plaid Cymru calls to demand HS2 be redesignated as an England-only project to unlock billions of pounds of consequential funding for Wales.

Senedd Members voted 42-12 against a Plaid Cymru motion on HS2, a high-speed railway from London to Birmingham, following a debate on March 12.

The project was classified as a Wales-and-England project in 2015 by David Cameron’s UK Government despite not an inch of track crossing the border.

As a consequence, no funding has come to Wales under the Barnett formula but Scotland and Northern Ireland have received a population share of HS2 spending.

Plaid Cymru has made the case for £4bn in compensation based on estimates of the total cost but the Welsh Government has quoted a £400m figure based on spending to date.

Peredur Owen Griffiths, the party’s shadow transport secretary in the Senedd, warned Welsh rail infrastructure has been systematically underfunded by the UK Government.

Calling for an end to “fundamental injustice”, he said: “Wales has received a fraction of the rail enhancement funding it is owed, our infrastructure has suffered from decades of neglect and the UK Government has failed to deliver the fair funding Wales needs.”

The Plaid Cymru politician pointed to an acknowledgment from Heidi Alexander, the UK transport secretary, that Wales has received low levels of funding historically.

“But this underfunding is not just historical, it is ongoing,” he warned. “Westminster, whether red or blue, continues to deny Wales the consequentials it is due.”

Mr Owen Griffiths raised concerns about reports that UK chancellor Rachel Reeves plans to freeze spending on major new rail projects until after the 2029 general election.

Pointing out that Welsh ministers previously called for £5bn in consequential funding, he told the Senedd: “Clearly, the people of Wales cannot trust this Labour party to stick to its word.”

Mr Owen Griffiths criticised the Welsh Government’s “delete-all” amendment, which was narrowly agreed, for “U-turning” on previous policy positions.

He said: “Now, when it truly matters, they have collective amnesia. What has changed? … The only thing that has changed is Labour’s willingness to stand up for Wales when they finally got the chance to do something about it.”

Peter Fox, the Tories’ shadow transport secretary, accused Labour of playing politics. “It must be embarrassing for Labour backbenchers, hence not many here,” he said.

Labour’s heckler-in-chief Lee Waters pointed out: “There’s nobody on your front bench.”

Mr Fox said: “Politicians in both Wales and England were calling for billions of pounds … but now Labour are in power in Westminster, their call is for just a meagre £400m.”

Labour backbencher Mick Antoniw pointed out that the previous Conservative UK Government could have designated HS2 as an England-only project.

Mr Fox, a former council leader, said the Tory Senedd group has stood against its own party on HS2 funding, adding: “It’s a kick in the teeth that you are turning your back.”

His Conservative colleague Gareth Davies warned of a “grotesque imbalance” between spending on rail in north Wales compared with the south of the country.

Labour’s Hefin David remarked: “The closer we get to an election, the poorer the standard of debate happens to be in this chamber. You would swear … that actually there’s been no progress whatsoever on rail in Wales which is manifestly not the case.”

Dr David pointed out that the newest trains in the whole of Europe now run on the Rhymney line through his Caerphilly constituency following an “incredible transformation”.

Welsh Lib Dem leader Jane Dodds said: “I feel these … debates are really the opposition parties putting down a motion and the Welsh Government saying ‘delete all’, and it feels like on this occasion just for the point of doing it and that depresses me beyond belief.”

Labour’s Alun Davies agreed, saying: “I don’t believe that’s the correct way of approaching these debates. We should look for consensus where possible – and that’s coming from me. We should look towards amending motions rather than deleting them.”

Wales’ transport secretary Ken Skates said the Welsh Government took ownership of the core valley lines and “transformed a liability into an asset”.

He told the Senedd: “And now that we have a Labour UK Government we will transform services across north Wales as well, increasing services by 50% next year.”

Mr Skates said a review of Network Rail processes will ensure Wales finally receives a fair share of all future rail infrastructure investment.

NATURAL Resources Wales is not out of the woods after making £10m cuts, slashing 250 jobs and receiving a £19m loan to cover an unexpected tax bill, a committee heard.

Llŷr Gruffydd, who chairs the Senedd’s climate committee, warned Natural Resources Wales (NRW) has been in a constant state of evolution and flux for many, many years.

David Henshaw, who chairs the board, said: “We can’t carry on as we are,” with NRW having agreed a target of cutting £10.9m from its budget by April 1.

He told Senedd members NRW’s massively committed workforce has found the “case for change” process really tough, with 256 posts removed and vacancies unfilled.

But he stressed: “Our duty is to face the challenge and actually deal with it.”

Appearing before the committee for scrutiny of NRW’s 2023/24 annual report on March 12, Sir David warned: “It’s going to be a rough old 12 months or so.”

Ceri Davies, acting chief executive, described NRW as being at a pivotal point, with a renewed focus on climate and nature.

She told the committee NRW has been trying to focus more on areas where it is uniquely best placed to deliver such as flood risk, biodiversity, water quality and regulatory work.

“It’s with a heavy heart that we give up some things,” she said.

Ms Davies added that NRW implemented a recruitment freeze, to minimise redundancies as far as possible, which has impacted on current staff.

“But we’re coming out of that now,” she said. “We’re supporting our staff through that and … we will be very shortly releasing opportunities for us to reinvest and to take on new staff.”

The Conservatives’ Janet Finch-Saunders questioned why NRW has an interim chief executive and a chief executive, asking how long the situation will continue.

Sir David replied that chief executive Clare Pillman has been off sick, saying: “She’s on the road to recovery, I think, so that’s why Ceri has been wonderfully acting up for us.”

Ms Davies has been acting up in the £150,000-a-year role since at least November, according to board papers.

Asked about funding in 2025/26, finance director Rachael Cunningham said NRW will have a total forecast budget of £298.3m – representing an annual increase of about £32.5m.

Carolyn Thomas, who chairs the petitions committee, raised public concern about NRW’s plans for its Nant yr Arian, Coed y Brenin and Ynyslas visitor centres.

Her Labour colleague Julie Morgan said the visitor centres are “much more than just a cafe”.

Sir David stressed: “These forests and places are not being closed, let’s be clear … what’s been looked at is the closure of cafes and shops which cost about £1m a year.”

He added: “We weren’t doing massive business in these shops and cafes, they were a big lossmaker … given the challenges of the budget,  we had to look very seriously at it.”

On a 6% cut to enforcement, Ms Davies explained NRW has instead prioritised prevention. “When we’re in the enforcement territory, the damage has already been done,” she said.

She told the committee NRW will continue to take action on significant offences as a deterrent, with a 30% increase in enforcement in 2023/24.

Pressed about the Welsh Government having to cover an estimated £19m tax bill for NRW due to off-payroll working, Sir David said a long list of public bodies face a similar situation.

“It’s an issue which has been very difficult for us,” said Sir David, a former chief executive at Liverpool Council. “And there are some questions we need to ask ourselves.”

He added: “Should we have been more aware earlier? Probably, yes. But actually would it have made much difference…? Probably not. We’ve made clear that in terms of employment now, we have none of the issues … so that’s been settled.”

Ms Cunningham declined to provide detail on the extent of liability accepted by NRW following February’s board meeting “because that’s in the hands of HMRC”.