Business

UK inflation falls to 2.3%, raising questions over interest rate cuts

Published

8 months ago

May 22, 2024

UK inflation has dropped to 2.3% in April, marking its lowest level in nearly three years. However, the decline fell short of analysts’ expectations, dampening hopes for an imminent interest rate cut by the Bank of England.

City analysts had anticipated a reduction to 2.1%, closer to the Bank’s 2% target. This discrepancy led markets to adjust their forecasts, now predicting that the Bank’s current rate of 5.25% may not be reduced until August, rather than next month as previously speculated.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the decrease from March’s 3.2% was primarily due to lower energy and food costs. The last time inflation was this low was in July 2021. Significant contributions to the drop included a record 27% fall in electricity and gas prices over the past year and a modest 2.9% annual rise in food and soft drink prices, the smallest increase since November 2021.

Illustrating the ongoing strain on household budgets, furniture retailers reduced prices by 0.9% between March and April, while overall goods prices dropped by 0.8% month-on-month. However, annual services inflation, reflecting inter-company charges, remained stubbornly high at 5.9%, only slightly down from March’s 6%.

Despite the overall fall in the consumer prices index (CPI), the ONS noted that higher property rents and mortgage costs kept the alternative CPIH measure, which includes housing costs, elevated at 3% year-on-year. Petrol and diesel prices rose last month, although the price of Brent crude has recently stabilised around $83 (£65) per barrel.

KPMG UK’s chief economist, Yael Selfin, suggested that the chance of an interest rate cut next month had diminished. “Falling inflation nears the Bank of England’s target but may not suffice for an early rate cut,” she stated. Echoing this sentiment, Paula Bejarano Carbo of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research noted that core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remains high at 3.9%. Combined with robust wage growth, this persistence could compel the Bank’s monetary policy committee to maintain rates.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak heralded April’s CPI figure as a “major moment for the economy, with inflation back to normal,” asserting that it validated the government’s economic strategy. Conversely, Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves argued that it was premature for the Conservatives to celebrate, highlighting the ongoing pressures of soaring prices, mortgage bills, and taxes.

In the eurozone, inflation held steady at 2.4% in April.

Separate ONS data indicated a larger-than-expected rise in public borrowing for April, with the monthly deficit reaching £20.5bn. Despite a decrease in debt payments, the high cost of servicing government debt exceeded expectations, potentially ruling out pre-election tax cuts.

Economic adviser Martin Beck from the EY Item Club described the public finance figures as disappointing, suggesting that continued higher borrowing costs would likely prevent any significant fiscal easing before the next general election.

Welsh Conservative Shadow Minister for Economy and Energy, Samuel Kurtz MS, praised the inflation drop, attributing it to the UK Conservative Government’s effective economic policies. He called on the Welsh Labour Government to support the economy by fully implementing business rates relief and reforming growth taxes.

Paul Butterworth, CEO of Chambers Wales South East, South West, and Mid, noted that while the reduction in inflation was significant, it remained above the Bank of England’s target. He expressed hope that the continued downward trend might prompt an interest rate cut soon.

Meanwhile, the British Association for Counselling and Psychotherapy (BACP) warned that despite the fall in inflation, the cost of living crisis continues to severely impact mental health. Their recent survey revealed that 74% of respondents felt their mental health was worsened by the crisis, with particularly high impacts on those with pre-existing conditions, women, ethnic minorities, and lower-income households.

BACP’s Director, Dr Lisa Morrison Coulthard, emphasised the need for government action to address these mental health challenges. The BACP has proposed a 13-point action plan to improve access to mental health services, stressing the importance of funding and support for vulnerable populations.

As the nation grapples with economic and mental health pressures, the government’s response to these intertwined issues will be crucial in the coming months.

Business

Welsh Water slammed after thousands were left without water

Published

1 day ago

January 21, 2025

Tom Sinclair

DWR CYMRU has been slammed by a councillor who warned people “could have died” after thousands were left without water.

Tens of thousands of residents across the county were left without water after a mains burst at a treatment plant in Dolgarrog last week.

Welsh Water said supplies were restored to homes and businesses on Monday morning.

The chairwoman of Conwy’s finance committee slammed Dwr Cymru during a meeting at the council’s Bodlondeb HQ on Monday.

Old Colwyn councillor Cheryl Carlisle thanked volunteers and council staff for pulling together before calling for a public inquiry into the crisis.

Security guards

Cllr Carlisle claimed those in poor health had been left without water and said security guards at water stations had turned people away with small children.

“I’d like to take the time to thank everyone that’s being involved in the crisis in Conwy over the last six days, the selfless volunteers, everyone that provided water and help to the elderly and vulnerable, and also the engineers for fixing the problem and our social care staff and the other staff who have helped keep our nursing homes going, our care homes, and (looked after) the most vulnerable,” she said.

“On a different note, there will need to be an inquiry, won’t there, into the crisis response from Dwr Cymru.

“You cannot fault the engineers, but the delays in basic organisation, like setting up the water stations.

“It was 48 hours in my particular community. Without the volunteers, it would have been very, very serious, indeed, for those with health conditions.”

She added: “The priority lists of Dwr Cymru did not work.

“There were people on it that were still undelivered (not had water delivered) as was last night [Sunday], cancer patients, dialysis patients. This is completely unacceptable.

“Security guards turned away members (of the public) with little children. That was absolutely unacceptable as well.

“I think this has brought out the very best in people and, in just a few, the very worst. There needs to be a clear disaster plan going forward.”

Cllr Carlisle then insisted an inquiry was needed after Cllr Goronwy Edwards suggested a review.

She added: “I think it needs to be something more than a review, given the seriousness.

“People could have died, those with (serious health conditions). I don’t think we should downplay anything until everyone has come through this intact.”

Conwy Council leader Cllr Charlie McCoubrey also thanked those councillors and members of the public “who had gone above and beyond to look after their communities”.

He added the authority was now in a recovery phase with some households still without water and some schools affected.

“Clearly, with any major incident, questions need to be asked about could this have been prevented, was the response adequate, and what happens in the future in terms of how we coordinate things and prevent incidents like that happening again?”

Cllr McCoubrey said he was working with Welsh Government to get answers from Dwr Cymru.

Report by Richard Evans, Local Democracy Reporter

Business

Decision due on development of buildings at Trewern Farm

Published

1 day ago

January 21, 2025

Bruce Sinclair - Local Democracy Reporter

A CALL to let a 950-herd north Pembrokeshire dairy farm keep a farm shed built without permission over a decade ago is expected to be approved later this month.

In an application recommended for conditional approval at Pembrokeshire Coast National Park’s development management committee meeting of January 29, Trewern Farms Ltd is seeking permission for the retention of the agricultural building and lay down area at Trewern Farm, Felindre Farchog.

The application is part of a wider complex planning history associated with the site.

A report for Park planners says: “Trewern Farm is operated as a zero grazing style dairy farm with 304 hectares located on two separate parcels of land, one at Trewern with the remainder being at Penpedwast, adjacent to Castell Henllys. The farm has a dairy herd of approximately 950 cows.

“Trewern Farm has expanded significantly over recent years with many of the buildings and structures on site having been erected without the prior benefit of planning permission, and having since been regularised through a combination of retrospective applications and certificates of lawfulness.

“The building subject of this application is believed to have been constructed in 2014. The site currently comprises an agricultural shed immediately adjoining another shed and is used for cubicle housing.

“A slurry lagoon, silage clamps and 12 of the newer agricultural buildings are now lawful as Certificates of Lawfulness were granted for these whilst the Authority was awaiting an Environmental Impact Assessment to be submitted by the applicants for the 2015 planning application to regularise the unauthorised buildings.

“However, this is the last of the outstanding agricultural buildings which are not lawful, and an enforcement notice was served in May 2018 requiring its removal. This notice was appealed in November 2019 and is currently being held in abeyance by the Planning Inspectorate.”

It says the building referred to in the application “is described as being designed to house cattle in a series of cubicles, and forms part of a longer set of buildings running along the southern section of the farming complex,” adding: “The livestock numbers are not proposed for increase as a result of this application but will be as secured [by a planning consent] restricted to no more than 960 milking cows with 1020 maximum excluding calves.”

Local community council Nevern has previously said it has “grave concerns” about the application, asking, amongst other things, how the 960 cattle limit will be policed and important nearby woodland will be protected.

The application was previously recommended for approval at the park’s December meeting, but was deferred as not all received documentation had been published on the national park’s planning website.

The application is now returning to the January meeting, again recommended for conditional approval.

Business

Castell Howell launches new Food Show at Welsh International Culinary Championships

Published

2 days ago

January 20, 2025

Tom Sinclair

CASTELL HOWELL has launched a new Food Show, showcasing the food trends and innovations that the hospitality industry can expect to see in 2025 and giving visitors a preview of its growing range of Welsh food and drink products.

The new industry event is taking place alongside the 2025 Welsh International Culinary Championships (WICC) at the International Conference Centre in Newport from 20-22 January.

Castell Howell managing director Matt Lewis said: “The Castell Howell Food Show will be a new highlight in this three-day celebration of Welsh culinary excellence, hospitality skills, and innovation. As the largest wholesale supplier of Welsh Food & Drink, it gives us the opportunity to champion our excellent Welsh producers, to support hospitality customers in developing their businesses and, ultimately, to help our communities and local economies throughout Wales to thrive.

“Visitors will have the unique opportunity to engage directly with Castell Howell specialists representing every aspect of our business from insights into the latest trends, to discovering what’s in the pipeline for Welsh food and drink producers in 2025,” he said.

The Castell Howell Food Show will be a new annual event in the calendar at the start of the year, serving as a preview for its larger established trade shows, hosted at Parc y Scarlets in Llanelli and Parc Eirias in Conwy.

The Welsh International Culinary Championships, organised by the Culinary Association of Wales, bring together the nation’s most talented craft chefs, butchers, and front-of-house professionals for three days of demanding competition. The 2025 WICC also hosts the Skills Competition Wales hospitality finals, showcasing the country’s top apprentices.

Deputy First Minister, with responsibility for Climate Change and Rural Affairs, Huw Irranca-Davies, said:

“These two events promise to be a fantastic showcase for Wales’ food and drink industry. It’s an opportunity to celebrate Wales’ culinary excellence and the strength of our hospitality sector. Castell Howell plays an important role in supporting Welsh farmers, producers and the hospitality sector – and I wish them well with this new event.”

Further information about the event is at foodshow.wales