PLANS to shift the supervision of sex offenders and domestic abusers in England and Wales to less-qualified probation staff have raised alarm among experts, with warnings that public safety could be at risk.

Under the proposals, set to be implemented in June, behaviour programmes for offenders will be delivered by “band 3” staff—who are not fully qualified probation officers—rather than “band 4” officers with extensive experience handling serious cases, including those involving rapists and paedophiles, and violent partners.

The move is part of wider changes in the probation system, which will also see the number of low- and medium-risk offenders required to complete twice-weekly rehabilitation courses reduced. Instead, probation officers will be expected to manage these offenders using “toolkits” in weekly meetings, rather than putting them through structured rehabilitation courses.

Some intervention programmes for sex offenders, including Horizon, Kaizen, and iHorizon, will also be scrapped in favour of a new single scheme called Building Choices.

Martin Jones, the chief inspector of probation, has urged the government to closely monitor the new programmes to ensure they are effective and do not compromise public safety.

“HM Prison and Probation Service needs to be certain that these programmes are delivering the intended results,” Jones said. “There is a real risk of wasting public money on schemes that fail to reduce reoffending.”

Concerns have been growing among probation officers, who have been voicing their unease for months. Some believe the changes will not lighten their workload, as intended, but instead add to it. Others fear that shifting responsibility to less-experienced staff could lead to poor outcomes.

Whitehall sources have echoed these concerns, warning that the new approach could damage the probation service’s reputation and effectiveness.

A probation officer, speaking anonymously, said: “There are serious worries about these changes. Peer challenge in group settings is a key part of rehabilitation—when offenders deny their crimes, others in the group call them out. This dynamic is much harder to achieve in one-on-one meetings.”

The overhaul comes amid broader pressures on the probation system. Last month, Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood announced that rehabilitation courses for 13,000 convicted criminals would be scrapped due to what she described as “impossible” workloads faced by probation officers.

Mahmood defended the changes, stating: “We must prioritise resources for the most serious offenders. Those who pose a higher risk will still receive the courses they need, and breaches of licence conditions will continue to be met with prison recalls.”

She also outlined plans to recruit 1,300 new probation officers by March 2026, alongside an additional 1,000 staff by this March, and introduce new technology to reduce administrative burdens on officers.

Jones acknowledged the need for reforms, admitting that probation officers were struggling with heavy caseloads, but stressed that cutting structured rehabilitation for lower-risk offenders should be carefully reviewed to avoid unintended consequences.

A Ministry of Justice spokesperson said: “Our priority is keeping the public safe, which is why probation officers will continue to focus on the highest-risk offenders. Only staff who are fully trained will be allowed to deliver accredited rehabilitation programmes, and this will not change under the new proposals.”

A HAVERFORDWEST bank clerk has appeared in court accused of stealing a customer’s bank card and committing fraud by abuse of position.

Mary Roberts, 47, of Coronation Avenue, Haverfordwest, is charged with stealing a bank card belonging to Keith France on November 22, 2023.

She is also accused of dishonestly abusing her position while working as a bank clerk, intending to cause financial loss while in a role where she was expected to safeguard her customer’s interests.

Roberts appeared at Haverfordwest Magistrates’ Court on Tuesday (March 11), where she entered not guilty pleas to both charges.

Magistrates declined jurisdiction and sent the case to Swansea Crown Court for a plea and trial preparation hearing next month.

The offences are alleged to be contrary to the Theft Act 1968 and the Fraud Act 2006. If convicted, Roberts faces a maximum penalty of 12 months’ imprisonment and an unlimited fine.

IN RECENT years, concerns have grown among Pembrokeshire residents regarding the perceived high number of child sexual offences in the area. High-profile cases and anecdotal evidence have contributed to speculation that the Dyfed-Powys region, particularly Pembrokeshire, experiences these crimes at a higher rate than other parts of the UK. But do the statistics support this perception?

National overview

The Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) for the year ending March 2022 estimated that 2.3% of adults aged 16 years and over had experienced sexual assault (including attempts) in the previous year. Police in England and Wales recorded 193,566 sexual offences, the highest level on record. Among these, 103,055 identifiable child sexual abuse (CSA) offences were reported.

Key findings include:

• Gender Dynamics: 82% of offenders were male, while 79% of victims were female.
• Offender Age: 52% of young perpetrators (aged 10 to 17) abused other children, with 14 being the most common age.

How do Dyfed-Powys figures compare nationally?

Statistical analysis of CSA cases in Dyfed-Powys presents a complex picture. While any number of such crimes is concerning, data does not indicate that the area is significantly worse than the rest of the country.

In the year leading up to March 2023:

• Dyfed-Powys Police recorded 192 crimes related to child sexual abuse images—the lowest among Wales’ four police forces.
• When adjusted for population, Dyfed-Powys had 37 offences per 100,000 residents, the lowest rate in Wales. In comparison:
  • South Wales Police recorded 74 per 100,000.
  • North Wales Police recorded 76 per 100,000.
  • Gwent Police recorded 84 per 100,000, the highest in Wales.

Between 2018 and 2023, Dyfed-Powys recorded 13 cases where sexual offences led to the sentencing or cautioning of an under-18, showing a marginal increase. Over six years, police recorded six allegations of rape and 61 allegations of sexual assault against children under 10, lower than North Wales, which recorded 20 rapes and 33 sexual assaults for the same age group.

Despite these figures, Dyfed-Powys Police have expressed concerns about a rise in online child exploitation. In 2018, for example, an estimated 55-58% of rape cases in the region involved victims under 18, demonstrating the significance of CSA within overall sexual crime.

The Pembrokeshire picture

Pembrokeshire has been a focal point for CSA cases within Dyfed-Powys.

Between September 2022 and September 2023, Pembrokeshire recorded the second-highest number of reported sexual offences in Dyfed-Powys, accounting for almost a quarter of all cases in the region. Several high-profile cases have reinforced public concerns, including the jailing of Paul Chesher (Milford Haven) and ex-mayor Terry Judkins (Pembroke Dock).

Additionally, historical abuse remains a significant factor. The December 2024 review into Caldey Abbey on Caldey Island revealed extensive historical CSA by members of the monastic community, contributing to long-term concerns about safeguarding failures.

Why Wales records higher CSA rates

While Pembrokeshire’s CSA rates are concerning, it is important to consider broader factors influencing these statistics across Wales:

• Rural policing challenges: Dyfed-Powys covers a vast rural area, making detection and prevention harder than in urban regions.
• Improved reporting and safeguarding: Higher CSA reports may result from stronger safeguarding policies and greater awareness rather than increased offending.
• Historical cases coming to light: Reviews of past offences, such as the Caldey Island scandal, have increased overall CSA statistics in recent years.
• Variability in support services: Limited access to specialist victim support in rural Wales may delay investigations and reporting.

Notably, in 2022, Dyfed-Powys had one of the highest rates of child sexual exploitation per capita in Wales, highlighting ongoing concerns.

Reporting and underreporting

CSA is frequently underreported due to stigma, fear, and the relationship between victim and perpetrator. This underreporting can create discrepancies between actual prevalence and recorded cases.

Are offenders being moved to Pembrokeshire?

A common local concern is that convicted sex offenders are being relocated to Pembrokeshire. However, there is no official evidence to support this claim.

As of March 2022:

• 587 convicted sex offenders were managed under Multi-Agency Public Protection Arrangements (MAPPA) in Dyfed-Powys.
• This number has increased from 514 in 2020 to 587 in 2022.
• Dyfed-Powys recorded 126 sex offenders per 100,000 people, in line with the national average.
• Unlike other forces, Dyfed-Powys Police have rejected all applications from offenders seeking removal from the sex offenders register.

While the increasing number of registered offenders is concerning, the rise likely reflects improved detection and reporting rather than a deliberate relocation policy.

Protests highlining the issue in Pembrokeshire

​In Pembrokeshire, public protests against the presence of sex offenders in local communities have been notable, often amplified through social media and press coverage. These demonstrations have played a significant role in shaping public perception regarding the prevalence of child sex offenders in the area.​

Notable protests in Pembrokeshire

1. Milford Haven protest (December 2024): Approximately 70 residents gathered in Wentworth Close, Milford Haven, protesting the bail release of Jamie Hughes, who had pleaded guilty to possessing over 400 Category A child abuse images—the most severe classification. The protest led to a substantial police presence, including armed response units, to maintain order.
2. Burton demonstration (January 2025): Around 40 individuals assembled outside a residential address in Burton, objecting to the bail granted to a man accused of abusing a baby. The peaceful protest highlighted community concerns over the suspect’s presence in their vicinity.
3. Hubberston incident (December 2024): A large protest occurred in Hubberston, where residents expressed outrage over a man released on bail after pleading guilty to possessing child abuse images. The situation escalated to the point where police had to remove the individual from his residence for his safety.

Influence of media and social platforms

These protests have been extensively covered by local and regional media outlets. Social media has further amplified these events, with live broadcasts and widespread sharing increasing their visibility. This extensive coverage contributes to heightened public awareness and concern, potentially leading to the perception that child sex offenders are more prevalent in Pembrokeshire than statistics alone might suggest.​

Research indicates that media portrayals can significantly influence public perceptions of crime, often leading to misconceptions about the frequency and nature of offences. For instance, sensationalized reporting can create a perception gap, where the public believes crime rates are higher than official statistics indicate. ​

In Pembrokeshire, the combination of high-profile protests, extensive media coverage, and the viral nature of social media content has likely contributed to a heightened perception of the prevalence of child sex offenders in the community. While community vigilance is crucial, it’s essential to balance public concern with factual data to avoid unnecessary fear and ensure informed discussions on public safety.

Conclusion

There is no conclusive evidence that Pembrokeshire experiences higher CSA rates than other parts of the UK. However, the county has seen significant cases, contributing to local fears. High-profile convictions, historical abuse revelations, and an increasing number of registered sex offenders have fueled public concern.

Authorities continue to strengthen policies such as Operation Soteria Bluestone, aimed at improving investigations. Police anticipate further rises in online CSA cases, emphasizing the need for ongoing vigilance. With public concern still high, transparency and continuous crime analysis will remain essential to safeguarding children and addressing community fears.