First Minister Vaughan Gething is poised to face a critical vote of no confidence today, amid mounting controversy over his leadership and campaign funding. The Senedd vote, initiated by the Conservatives, comes after sustained criticism of Gething’s acceptance of donations from a company owned by an individual previously convicted of environmental offences. With significant internal party strife and key members absent, Gething is expected to lose the vote, which could significantly undermine his authority.

In a revealing interview with BBC Radio Wales Breakfast, Vikki Howells, chair of the Labour group of Members of the Senedd (MSs), disclosed that two Labour MSs are currently unwell and unable to attend the vote. This development places Gething’s leadership in jeopardy, as Labour’s narrow majority in the Senedd requires full attendance for a definitive win. The absent MSs are Hannah Blythyn and Lee Waters, both significant figures in Welsh Labour’s internal dynamics. Blythyn, recently sacked by Gething, and Waters, a former transport minister who has previously called for the contentious donations to be returned, are pivotal in this unfolding drama.

Their absences, compounded by the lack of proxy voting or remote participation options, have thrown Labour’s plans into disarray. Labour holds exactly half of the 60 seats in the Welsh Parliament, meaning every vote is crucial for maintaining Gething’s position. Without Blythyn and Waters, Labour is left vulnerable, especially as the Conservatives, along with Plaid Cymru and Welsh Liberal Democrat Jane Dodds, have refused to agree to a pairing arrangement to offset the absences.

The Conservatives’ motion could succeed if even one Labour MS rebels, abstains, or does not participate in the vote. This potential outcome has turned the vote into a high-stakes affair, with significant implications for Gething’s leadership. Vikki Howells criticised the vote as a “gimmick” by the Conservatives, aiming to distract from their own performance over the past 14 years in government. She emphasised that such votes should be decided by the public in a general election, not by parliamentary manoeuvres.

Plaid Cymru has accused Gething of showing contempt towards the Senedd. Their leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, highlighted the internal conflict within Labour over this issue. “Are there Labour members who are wrestling with their conscience? Absolutely, we know there are,” he said, pointing to a fracturing within the party ranks.

Gething, who ascended to the position of First Minister just 77 days ago, has been under intense scrutiny following revelations that he received a £200,000 donation from Dauson Environmental Group during his leadership campaign. The company’s owner, David John Neal, has a history of environmental violations, further fuelling the controversy.

Throughout the leadership contest, Gething faced calls from within Labour to return any remaining funds from Dauson, a plea he has largely ignored. Additionally, Gething’s credibility has been questioned over his handling of a leaked message during the pandemic and the subsequent sacking of Blythyn, who has not spoken in the Senedd since.

The Conservative leader, Andrew RT Davies, laid out the rationale behind the no-confidence motion, citing concerns about Gething’s judgement, transparency, and honesty. “One there’s a question of judgement, two there’s a question around transparency and three there’s an issue around honesty,” he stated on BBC Radio Wales Breakfast.

While today’s vote is technically non-binding and does not necessitate Gething’s immediate resignation, the political ramifications are significant. A loss would underscore a weakening grip on his party and diminish his authority, casting a shadow over his nascent leadership. This vote underscores the turbulent nature of Welsh politics, where internal party strife and external criticisms can converge to threaten even the most newly established leadership.

The origins of this controversy trace back to Gething’s Welsh Labour leadership election victory in March. His campaign was notably dominated by the £200,000 donation from Dauson Environmental Group. Public reaction from Labour politicians was largely muted during the campaign itself, but Gething has failed to prevent private anger from rising to the surface. There were calls from within Labour for the party not to take any remaining money from Dauson, as it normally would with leftover funds from campaign contests.

Adding to Gething’s woes, he found himself defending a controversial message he sent during the pandemic. As then-health minister, Gething informed colleagues he was deleting texts from a ministerial group chat, an action that has drawn criticism and raised questions about transparency and accountability. His subsequent sacking of Hannah Blythyn, which he attributed to her being the source of a leak, has not been backed by evidence, leading to further discontent and demands for clarity.

In a political environment where every move is scrutinised, Gething’s ability to unify his party and command respect in the Senedd has been called into question. The no-confidence vote, while non-binding, is seen as a litmus test for his leadership. Should Gething fail to rally his party members, the implications could be profound, potentially triggering a leadership crisis within Welsh Labour.

As the Senedd convenes to cast their votes, the political stakes could not be higher. The outcome of this vote will not only determine Vaughan Gething’s immediate political future but also shape the broader narrative of Welsh politics in the months to come.