Politics
Wins and losses since 1997 in Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire

POLLS are now open for the July 4 general election, where 15 candidates will fight for your vote in the two new seats of Mid and south Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion Preseli.
As part of constituency changes, bits of north Pembrokeshire – including St Davids and– are joining the new Mid and South Pembrokeshire constituency.
Mid and South Pembrokeshire covers Letterston, Solva and St Davids down to Hundleton and Tenby, stretching eastwards to Amroth, Narberth and Lampeter Velfrey.
Other parts of the north of the county are now in the new Ceredigion Preseli constituency; which extends up past Aberystwyth and also includes Cilgerran, Crymych, St Dogmaels, Fishguard and Llanrhian.
Candidates for Mid and South Pembrokeshire are: Hanna Andersen (Women’s Equality Party); Alistair Cameron (Welsh Liberal Democrats); Stephen Crabb (Welsh Conservative); Stuart Marchant (Reform UK); James Purchase (Green Party); Vusi Siphika (Independent); Cris Tomos (Plaid Cymru); and Henry Tufnell (Welsh Labour).
Candidates for the new Ceredigion Preseli seat are: Ben Lake for Plaid Cymru, Liberal Democrat Mark Williams, Welsh Labour’s Jackie Jones, Conservative Aled Thomas, Tomos Barlow for the Green Party, Karl Robert Pollard for Reform UK, and Taghrid Al-Mawed for the Workers Party of Britain.
With the boundary changes, which see a cut the number of Welsh MPs from 40 to 32, the former constituencies of Ceredigion, Preseli Pembrokeshire, and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire are now no more.
The two new seats are expecting a Plaid Cymru win for Ceredigion Preseli and a Labour win for Mid and South Pembrokeshire, according to polls.
Listed below are the ebb and flow of winners and losers for the now-defunct seats since 1997.
Ceredigion election history: 1997- Plaid Cymru win Cynog Dafis, Robert ‘Hag’ Harris 2nd for Lab; 2000 by-election Plaid win Simon Thomas, Mark Williams Liberal-Democrates 2nd; 2001 election: Simon Thomas hold, Mark Williams 2nd; 2005 – Mark Williams win, Simon Thomas 2nd; 2010 – Mark Williams hold, Penri James for Plaid 2nd; 2015 Mark Williams hold, Mike Parker for Plaid 2nd; 2017 – narrow Ben Lake win for Plaid by 104 votes, Mark Williams 2nd; 2019 – Ben Lake hold by increased majority, Amanda Jenner (Cons) 2nd, Mark Williams 3rd.
For the now defunct Preseli Pembrokeshire, parts of which are in the two new seats, election history was…. 1997 Jack Lawrence (Lab), Robert Buckland (Cons) 2nd; 2001 Jackie Lawrence, Stephen Crabb 2nd; 2005 S Crabb, Sue Heyman (Lab) 2nd; 2010 S Crabb, Mari Rees (Lab); 2015 – S Crabb, Paul Miller (Labour) 2nd; 2017 – S Crabb, Philippa Thompson (Lab) 2nd, 314 majority for SC; 2019 – S Crabb, Phillip Thompson 2nd.
The former Carmarthenshire West and South Pembrokeshire seat, parts of which are in the new Mid and south Pembrokeshire seat, election history is: 1997 Nick Ainger (Lab), Owen Williams (Cons) 2nd; 2001 Nick Ainger, Robert Wilson (Cons) 2nd; 2005 Nick Ainger, David Morris (Cons) 2nd; 2010 Simon Hart (Cons), Nick Ainger 2nd; 2015 Simon Hart, Delyth Evans (Lab) 2nd; 2017 Simon Hart, Marc Tierney (Lab) 2nd; 2019 Simon Hart, Marc Tierney 2nd.
In collated results of different polls from Britain Predicts, The Economist, electionmaps, Electoral Calculus, Focaldata, the FT, Ipsos, More in Common, Savanta, Survation, WeThink, and YouGov, Labour is expected to win the Mid and South Pembrokeshire seat for 2024 with vote percentages ranging from 33 per cent to as high as 50 per cent.
Ceredigion Preseli polls are predicting a Plaid Cymru win, ranging from a narrow 27 per cent of votes win to as much as 48 per cent.
News
Welsh Government’s £789m investment package approved by Senedd

THE WELSH GOVERMENT’S Second Supplementary Budget 2024-25 has today been approved by the Senedd.
The £789m funding package, which was published in February, received final approval today. It includes substantial investments which have been delivered throughout the year, including:
- £264m for public sector pay rises announced in September.
- £108m for NHS improvements, including £50m to reduce the longest waiting times by the end of March 2025.
- £63.5m to improve school standards and support education at all levels.
- £53.5m for school and college infrastructure repairs and digital improvements.
- £10m to increase social housing through the Social Housing Grant.
Finance Secretary Mark Drakeford said: “We welcome the Senedd’s approval of this crucial budget. This investment strengthens the services that matter most to the people of Wales. The extra funding is supporting improvements in the NHS and schools; has provided pay increases for public sector workers and is helping to build more affordable homes for Welsh families.”
The Second Supplementary Budget also includes £166.7m for rail improvements and sustainable travel, £33.5m for road network safety, and £10m in emergency support for local authorities to repair damage caused by the winter storms.
The budget provides the essential foundation for the Welsh Government’s financial planning for 2025-26.
News
Criticism over lack of response to decline of Welsh-speaking communities

A PLAID CYMRU Member of the Senedd has criticised the Welsh Government for failing to acknowledge the crisis facing Welsh-speaking communities, as concerns grow over the language’s decline.
During First Minister’s Questions on Tuesday (Mar 18), Cefin Campbell, Plaid Cymru MS for Mid and West Wales, pressed the Welsh Government on when it would respond to the final report of the Commission for Welsh-speaking Communities. The report, published in August 2024, sets out policy recommendations to support the language in its traditional strongholds.
Eluned Morgan, First Minister of Wales, stated that the government’s response will be published during the Urdd Eisteddfod in May. However, she could not confirm whether the recommendations would be implemented before the end of the current Senedd term.
The Commission was set up in November 2022 in response to what the Welsh Government described as a “socio-economic and societal crisis” in Welsh-speaking communities, highlighted by the 2021 Census. The final report was presented to the First Minister last August at the National Eisteddfod in Pontypridd, but seven months later, the government has yet to issue a formal response.
Carmarthenshire, the home county of Mr. Campbell, has seen a sharp decline in Welsh speakers. In 2001, 50.3% of residents spoke the language, falling to 43.9% in 2011 and 39.9% in 2021.
Speaking in the Senedd, Mr. Campbell said: “This is an extremely valuable piece of research and reflection by experts in the field, which sets clear recommendations for the Government to enact. These include measures in education, housing, planning, and economic development to prevent further decline and support the recovery of our Welsh-speaking communities.
“There are only 14 months left until the next Senedd election. Time is running out, and the clock is ticking for our Welsh-speaking communities.
“When will the Government publish its response to this report, and can we be confident that its recommendations will be implemented before the end of this Senedd term?
News
Government’s £5bn benefits crackdown: What It means for Pembrokeshire

New reforms could hit disability claimants hardest
THE UK GOVERNMENT has unveiled a major reform of the welfare system, aiming to save £5bn by 2030 through stricter eligibility rules for benefits such as Personal Independence Payment (PIP) and Universal Credit (UC). With 19.5% of households in Pembrokeshire claiming Universal Credit, these changes could have a significant impact locally, particularly for disabled residents.

However, early analysis suggests PIP claimants will be hardest hit. While Universal Credit recipients will see some structural changes, including the scrapping of the Work Capability Assessment (WCA) in 2028 and a permanent above-inflation rise, PIP recipients face much tougher eligibility criteria, potentially disqualifying around a million people nationwide.
Local impact on Pembrokeshire
With 26% of its population aged over 65—one of the highest proportions in Wales—and above-average disability rates, Pembrokeshire could be disproportionately affected. Many residents rely on PIP to supplement low wages or provide financial support when work is not an option.
Pembrokeshire’s economy is heavily dependent on seasonal work, tourism, and public services, with 14% of workers self-employed—many in physically demanding jobs. Health and disability benefits play a crucial role for those unable to work year-round.
Key changes announced
Universal Credit (UC)
- Above-inflation increase – Payments will rise permanently to £775 per month by 2030.
- Work Capability Assessment scrapped (2028) – Future assessments for extra support will be through PIP instead.
- Right to Try – Claimants will be encouraged to return to work without immediately losing benefits.
- Under-22s lose incapacity top-up – Young people will no longer qualify for an additional health-related payment, a move designed to deter school leavers from going straight onto benefits.
Impact: Universal Credit claimants face mixed consequences. The removal of WCA could reduce stress for those with long-term conditions, and higher payments may help some households. However, the removal of incapacity top-ups could create financial hardship for young disabled claimants.
Personal Independence Payment (PIP)
- Stricter eligibility rules – Claimants must score at least four points in one category to qualify for PIP’s daily living element.
- Up to one million people could lose support – Early estimates suggest a significant number may no longer qualify.
- No means-testing (yet), but tougher assessments – Changes may disproportionately affect those with mental health conditions and fluctuating illnesses.
Impact: Many disabled residents in Pembrokeshire may struggle to qualify for PIP, which in turn affects their Universal Credit top-ups. Those with mental health conditions, long COVID, or conditions such as multiple sclerosis and fibromyalgia may face difficulties meeting the new criteria.
What does this mean for Pembrokeshire?
- Higher risk for disabled claimants – With an aging population and a significant number of residents on disability benefits, many may lose essential support.
- Rural and seasonal work challenges – Physically demanding jobs in tourism, construction, and agriculture mean PIP is crucial for those unable to work due to health conditions.
- Potential rise in hardship – Child poverty in Pembrokeshire is already one of the highest in Wales (24.7%). If PIP claimants lose financial support, demand for food banks and social services could increase.
Local perspective
Pembrokeshire has a lower-than-average employment rate (73.8%) and high self-employment (14%), meaning many workers lack stable income or sick pay. The county also faces social care pressures, with 641 adults receiving domiciliary care. If PIP eligibility tightens, many claimants could lose both disability payments and their health-related UC top-ups, leaving some without financial support entirely.
Responding to the Government’s Green Paper on Welfare reforms, Welsh Liberal Democrat Westminster Spokesperson David Chadwick MP said: “You don’t get more people into work by slashing support for disabled people who need it.
“If we are to reduce the welfare bill, we need to focus on prevention and get serious about fixing health and social care in Wales, alongside improving mental health treatment provisions.
“Far too many people in Wales are left deteriorating on extreme waiting lists, unable to work and often become sicker while they wait for treatment.
“We are also concerned that the Chancellor’s budget is failing to create new jobs for people to join, with the national insurance rise contributing to job losses and hiring freezes across Wales.
“This is in addition to the fact that in many former industrial parts of Wales, jobs that were lost have never been replaced which is why we need a real economic strategy to breathe new life into these communities.”
What happens next?
The government has launched a Green Paper consultation on the reforms. However, with Labour facing internal criticism over the changes, further amendments could still be made before they take full effect.
Have your say
The Herald wants to hear from Pembrokeshire residents:
- Are you worried about losing your benefits?
- Do you think the “Right to Try” scheme will help you get back into work?
- How will these reforms impact your household?
Email The Herald with your views.
Final verdict
Pembrokeshire at higher risk – With a high disability rate, older population, and reliance on seasonal work, the county may see a rise in financial hardship due to these reforms.r say
Universal Credit claimants – Some may benefit from higher payments and no longer facing Work Capability Assessments, but young disabled people will be hit hardest.
PIP claimants – The biggest losers. Many may lose their entire benefit due to stricter scoring rules, which in turn affects their UC top-ups.
We want to hear from Pembrokeshire residents affected by these changes. Are you worried about losing your benefits? Will the new support help you get back into work? Email The Herald with your views.
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