THE Electoral Reform Society has modelled what the new parliament would look like after the general election under proportional representation.

The modelling shows what Parliament would look like under the Additional Member System (AMS) [1] of proportional representation (PR), which is used for the Scottish and Welsh parliaments as well as the London Assembly, compared to the results under the current Westminster system of First Past the Post (FPTP)
 

A visual representation of how the results would look for PR compared to the First Past the Post results can be found here https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/18633267/
 
The Parliament elected under PR would far more closely reflect the way the country voted. It could lead to a number of scenarios politically, and likely lead to a government that represented a far greater share of voters. For instance, a Labour, Lib Dem, Green coalition under AMS would represent 52.7% of voters, rather than the just 33.7% represented by the Labour majority government.
 
In the coming weeks the Electoral Reform Society will also be releasing a model of the 2024 General Election result under the Single Transferable Vote (STV) system of PR, which is the ERS’s preferred system and used in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
 
The model comes after the general election produced the most disproportional parliament in British electoral history.

The results saw the Labour Party win 64% of seats (412) with just under 34% of the votes. Meanwhile, Reform UK and the Green Party won just 9 seats (just over 1%) between them with over 20% of the vote share combined.

Research by the Electoral Reform Society also showed that Labour won an MP for every 24,000 votes they received, compared to one for every 49,000 for the Lib Dems, one MP for every 56,000 votes for the Conservatives, one for every 485,000 votes for the Greens and one for every 820,000 for Reform.

Darren Hughes, Chief Executive of the Electoral Reform Society said: “The job of Parliament is to represent the way the country voted. However, this election has produced the most disproportional result in British electoral history.

“This is because of the distorting Westminster First Past the Post voting system, which means the seats parties get in Parliament often are not matching the share of the votes they’ve received.

“In simple terms, people should get what they vote for. Our modelling shows what Parliament would look like with a fairer proportional voting system such the ones used for the Scottish and Welsh parliaments.

“It’s time we moved to a fairer proportional voting system for Westminster so Parliament accurately reflects the way the country voted.”

THE National Eisteddfod 2026 could be held on the outskirts of Cardigan, just inside Pembrokeshire if Pembrokeshire County Council formalise the proposal.

It would mark 850 years since the first Eisteddfod was held in the town by Lord Rhys.

The site is in Llantood, between Cardigan and Eglwyswrw on the Pembrokeshire side of the border.

“The Cabinet is now asked to formally approve a proposal by the Welsh Local Government Association to host the 2026 Eisteddfod in Pembrokeshire at a site in Llantood, just off the A487,” said the council agenda.

“Following an expression of interest by the former Leader in 2022, the Welsh Local Government Association has confirmed that the 2026 National Eisteddfod will be held in Pembrokeshire.”

The document adds: “There are also several historical reasons for the decision as 2026 marks 850 years since the establishment of the Eisteddfod in the Teifi Valley area.”

The document stated that the council has two options:

• The Cabinet approves the decision to host the Eisteddfod at the Llantood site.
• The Cabinet withdraws its application to host the festival.

The council document stated that officials recommend “approving the proposal to host the 2026 Pembrokeshire National Eisteddfod at the Llantood site within the Teifi Valley.”

The Cardigan Eisteddfod of 1176, held over Christmas, is the first known Eisteddfod. It was hosted by Lord Rhys of Deheubarth at his court in Cardigan.

THE WELSH Conservative Party has been completely wiped out in Wales in the latest General Election, marking a significant shift in the political landscape of the region. Labour emerged victorious, securing all but five of the 32 Welsh Commons seats. Plaid Cymru captured four seats, while the Liberal Democrats won Brecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe.

In stark contrast to the 2019 election results, where the Tories held 14 of the 40 seats, Labour had 22, and Plaid Cymru maintained their four seats. This recent outcome represents a dramatic change, with Labour now holding 27 seats in Wales.

Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies expressed his disappointment on X, stating, “We are a party that exists to govern and improve people’s opportunities. Let’s be frank: We’ve let a lot of people down.”

He acknowledged the party’s solid record in Welsh communities across various levels of government, from local councils to the Senedd and Parliament, and emphasised the need to rebuild the party ahead of the 2026 elections. Davies stressed the importance of not taking lifelong Conservative voters for granted as the first step in this rebuilding process.

This election marks the first time in 23 years that the Tories have been entirely ousted from Wales, reminiscent of the 2001 scenario when there was no Conservative representation in the region. The ‘Boris bounce’ that turned much of North Wales blue in 2019 has now dissipated, returning those constituencies to Labour.

Plaid Cymru also had a strong showing, retaining their four seats, and the Liberal Democrats managed to secure one seat. The early signs of this outcome were apparent when the now-former Welsh Secretary, David TC Davies, conceded defeat hours before the results were announced, stating he had only prepared a concession speech.

An intriguing development in this election was the performance of Reform UK, which came second in 12 of the Labour victories, surpassing the Tories and other parties. This could pose a challenge for Labour in the upcoming Senedd elections in 2026.

As the Welsh Tories reflect on their losses, Andrew RT Davies has reiterated the party’s failures and the need for substantial change. Despite the setbacks, the Conservatives still hold 16 of the 60 seats in the Welsh Senedd, while Welsh Labour has half the seats, Plaid Cymru has 13, and the Welsh Lib Dems have one seat, now occupied by Jane Dodds, MP for Brecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe.

Nationally, the Conservative Party is predicted to win just 131 seats, the lowest in its history, while Labour is projected to secure 410 seats, achieving an overall majority of 170. This wider national trend underscores the significant challenges facing the Conservative Party as they move forward.