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Politics

Wins and losses since 1997 in Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire

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POLLS are now open for the July 4 general election, where 15 candidates will fight for your vote in the two new seats of Mid and south Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion Preseli.

As part of constituency changes, bits of north Pembrokeshire – including St Davids and– are joining the new Mid and South Pembrokeshire constituency.

Mid and South Pembrokeshire covers Letterston, Solva and St Davids down to Hundleton and Tenby, stretching eastwards to Amroth, Narberth and Lampeter Velfrey.

Other parts of the north of the county are now in the new Ceredigion Preseli constituency; which extends up past Aberystwyth and also includes Cilgerran, Crymych, St Dogmaels, Fishguard and Llanrhian.

Candidates for Mid and South Pembrokeshire are: Hanna Andersen (Women’s Equality Party); Alistair Cameron (Welsh Liberal Democrats); Stephen Crabb (Welsh Conservative); Stuart Marchant (Reform UK); James Purchase (Green Party); Vusi Siphika (Independent); Cris Tomos (Plaid Cymru); and Henry Tufnell (Welsh Labour).

Candidates for the new Ceredigion Preseli seat are: Ben Lake for Plaid Cymru, Liberal Democrat Mark Williams, Welsh Labour’s Jackie Jones, Conservative Aled Thomas, Tomos Barlow for the Green Party, Karl Robert Pollard for Reform UK, and Taghrid Al-Mawed for the Workers Party of Britain.

With the boundary changes, which see a cut the number of Welsh MPs from 40 to 32, the former constituencies of Ceredigion, Preseli Pembrokeshire, and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire are now no more.

The two new seats are expecting a Plaid Cymru win for Ceredigion Preseli and a Labour win for Mid and South Pembrokeshire, according to polls.

Listed below are the ebb and flow of winners and losers for the now-defunct seats since 1997.

Ceredigion election history:  1997- Plaid Cymru win Cynog Dafis, Robert ‘Hag’ Harris 2nd for Lab; 2000 by-election Plaid win Simon Thomas, Mark Williams Liberal-Democrates 2nd; 2001 election: Simon Thomas hold, Mark Williams 2nd; 2005 – Mark Williams win, Simon Thomas 2nd; 2010 – Mark Williams hold, Penri James for Plaid 2nd; 2015 Mark Williams hold, Mike Parker for Plaid 2nd; 2017 – narrow Ben Lake win for Plaid by 104 votes,  Mark Williams 2nd; 2019 – Ben Lake hold by increased majority, Amanda Jenner (Cons) 2nd, Mark Williams 3rd.

For the now defunct Preseli Pembrokeshire, parts of which are in the two new seats, election history was…. 1997 Jack Lawrence (Lab), Robert Buckland (Cons) 2nd; 2001 Jackie Lawrence, Stephen Crabb 2nd; 2005 S Crabb, Sue Heyman (Lab) 2nd; 2010 S Crabb, Mari Rees (Lab); 2015 – S Crabb, Paul Miller (Labour) 2nd; 2017 – S Crabb, Philippa Thompson (Lab) 2nd, 314 majority for SC; 2019 – S Crabb, Phillip Thompson 2nd.

The former Carmarthenshire West and South Pembrokeshire seat, parts of which are in the new Mid and south Pembrokeshire seat, election history is: 1997 Nick Ainger (Lab), Owen Williams (Cons) 2nd; 2001 Nick Ainger, Robert Wilson (Cons) 2nd; 2005 Nick Ainger, David Morris (Cons) 2nd; 2010 Simon Hart (Cons), Nick Ainger 2nd; 2015 Simon Hart, Delyth Evans (Lab) 2nd; 2017 Simon Hart, Marc Tierney (Lab) 2nd; 2019 Simon Hart, Marc Tierney 2nd.

In collated results of different polls from Britain Predicts, The Economist, electionmaps, Electoral Calculus, Focaldata, the FT, Ipsos, More in Common, Savanta, Survation, WeThink, and YouGov, Labour is expected to win the Mid and South Pembrokeshire seat for 2024 with vote percentages ranging from 33 per cent to as high as 50 per cent.

Ceredigion Preseli polls are predicting a Plaid Cymru win, ranging from a narrow 27 per cent of votes win to as much as 48 per cent.

 

Politics

Ceredigion council tax expected to rise by 4.7 per cent

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A BETTER financial settlement for Ceredigion from the Welsh Government along with a fresh grant is expected to see council tax bills in the county rising by less than five per cent this year, far below previous fears of a rise as high as nearly nine.

Last year, for the 2025-’26 budget, Ceredigion saw a council tax rise of 9.3 per cent.

While council tax makes up a proportion of the council’s annual revenue, a crucial area of funding is the Aggregate External Finance (AEF) rate from Welsh Government.

Ceredigion was to receive a 2.3 per cent increase on its settlement, some £3,388,000 for a total of £150,670,000, placing it at joint 13th of the 22 local authorities in Wales.

Following a later Welsh Government and Plaid Cymru agreement additional funding for local government was secured, giving Ceredigion additional funding.

Back in November, before the increased settlement was announced, Ceredigion Leader Cllr Bryan Davies said that early estimates indicated that an 8.9 per cent increase in council tax would be necessary, but an improved position of 6.9 per cent had been indicated as a result of a further modelling of service cost pressures and operational savings.

Following the improved settlement, members at the January meeting of Cabinet heard from Cabinet Member for Finance and Procurement Services Cllr Gareth Davies a recommendation for a 4.75 per cent council tax increase as part of a draft budget requirement of £221.493m was being mooted.

That position has improved again, following financial support towards the Mid and West Wales Fire Service Levy, members of the February 3 meeting of the council’s corporate resources overview and scrutiny committee heard, the funding now dropping the expected council tax increase to 4.7 per cent, equivalent to an extra £7.39 per month for the average Band D property for the next financial year.

Members of the committee agreed to note the 4.7 per cent figure, with the final council tax recommendation being considered by Cabinet on February 10; the final decision on the budget being made by full council on March 2.

 

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international news

Mandelson quits Lords amid police probe over Epstein links

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Peter Mandelson has announced he will retire from the House of Lords with immediate effect, as mounting political and legal pressure grows over claims he shared sensitive government information with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Parliamentary officials confirmed that Peter Mandelson formally notified the Clerk of the Parliaments of his decision, ending his membership of the upper chamber from Tuesday (Feb 4).

The move follows reports that the Metropolitan Police Service is reviewing allegations of possible misconduct in public office connected to emails said to have been forwarded to Epstein while Mandelson was business secretary during the 2008–09 financial crisis.

Downing Street has confirmed that material has been passed to police after an initial Cabinet Office review.

Government fury

LONDON, ENGLAND – JANUARY 19: Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer delivers a statement in the media briefing room of 9 Downing Street in central London, after US president Donald Trump’s threats to ramp up tariffs until a deal is reached for the US to buy Greenland, at Downing Street on January 19, 2026 in London, England. (Photo by Jordan Pettitt – WPA Pool/Getty Images)

Prime Minister Keir Starmer told cabinet colleagues Mandelson had “let his country down”, according to No 10, and officials are now drafting legislation that could strip him of his peerage entirely.

Removing a life peer is rare and would require an Act of Parliament.

If passed, Mandelson would lose the title “Lord” altogether — an extraordinary step that has only been considered in the most serious cases.

Senior ministers have described the alleged passing-on of market-sensitive government discussions as “disgraceful” and a “betrayal of trust”.

What police are examining

Misconduct in public office is a centuries-old common law offence that applies where someone in a position of public trust wilfully abuses that role. It carries a maximum sentence of life imprisonment.

Investigators will assess whether confidential information — particularly relating to government financial policy during the crash — was shared without justification and whether safeguards were breached.

At this stage, no charges have been brought.

Mandelson has previously apologised for maintaining contact with Epstein after the financier’s conviction, saying he regrets “ever having known him”, but he has disputed some of the latest claims and has not commented directly on the police review.

Political shockwaves

Opposition parties are pushing for further disclosure of documents relating to Mandelson’s vetting and his past roles.

Conservatives are expected to force a Commons vote demanding more information, while Liberal Democrats have called for a public inquiry.

Several MPs have also suggested Mandelson should be removed from the Privy Council.

The developments mark a dramatic fall for one of Labour’s most influential political figures of the past three decades, who only months ago was serving as the UK’s ambassador to Washington.

Now, with police examining evidence and legislation being prepared to remove his title, his public career appears effectively over.

More updates are expected as the investigation continues.

 

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Community

Cilgerran Church in Wales school petition to be heard

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A PETITION opposing proposed changes for a north Pembrokeshire school is to be heard by councillors later this week.

At last May’s meeting, Pembrokeshire County Council considered a report of the School Modernisation Working Group which outlined the findings of a review of education provision in the Preseli area.

A later July meeting backed a general consultation to discontinue Cilgerran Church in Wales Voluntary Controlled School, and to establish it as a 3-11 community school.

“In particular, the review considered the extent of surplus school places in the area, set against a significant decline in the pupil population,” the council in its consultation has said.

The consultation closed on January 30.

Hundreds have opposed the proposed changes, with a petition, on the council’s own website opposing the changes recently closing after gaining 391 signatures.

Any petition of more than 100 signatures triggers a debate at one of the council’s scrutiny committees, in the case of Cilgerran that debate taking place at Pembrokeshire County Council’s February 5 schools and learning overview and scrutiny committee.

The Cilgerran e-petition, created by Louise Williams, raised concerns including the school could become part of a federation, a loss of permanent head teacher on site, a shared head teacher would have to oversee several schools, loss of funding control and the ability to maintain the school’s current healthy and stable funding, and a loss of commitment to the church, in turn could impact on the school’s and pupils values, beliefs and cultural beliefs.   

It said: “Ysgol Cilgerran VC school has strong links with the Church community in Cilgerran and we believe this will have a negative impact on the children who attend the school, the community of Cilgerran and the links between the two.
“We are proud of our school ethos and values which are strengthened by our links with the church. The school has close and strong relationships with our Church in Wales federation governors one of which is also our safeguarding governor.

“Our Church Federation governors work closely with the school and are regular visitors to the school and the children. They provide vital support and guidance to the school and have a positive impact on the Children’s education. We believe these links will be weakened by this proposal to remove our VC status and we believe this is an un-necessary action.”

The proposals for Cilgerran are part of a wide range of potential education changes in the county.

Two petitions, opposing the potential closures of Manorbier and Ysgol Clydau schools, were recently heard at full council and a further petition opposing the potential closure of Stepaside School has recently been launched, which has generated enough support to be heard at a future council meeting.

 

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