Politics
Wins and losses since 1997 in Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire

POLLS are now open for the July 4 general election, where 15 candidates will fight for your vote in the two new seats of Mid and south Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion Preseli.
As part of constituency changes, bits of north Pembrokeshire – including St Davids and– are joining the new Mid and South Pembrokeshire constituency.
Mid and South Pembrokeshire covers Letterston, Solva and St Davids down to Hundleton and Tenby, stretching eastwards to Amroth, Narberth and Lampeter Velfrey.
Other parts of the north of the county are now in the new Ceredigion Preseli constituency; which extends up past Aberystwyth and also includes Cilgerran, Crymych, St Dogmaels, Fishguard and Llanrhian.
Candidates for Mid and South Pembrokeshire are: Hanna Andersen (Women’s Equality Party); Alistair Cameron (Welsh Liberal Democrats); Stephen Crabb (Welsh Conservative); Stuart Marchant (Reform UK); James Purchase (Green Party); Vusi Siphika (Independent); Cris Tomos (Plaid Cymru); and Henry Tufnell (Welsh Labour).
Candidates for the new Ceredigion Preseli seat are: Ben Lake for Plaid Cymru, Liberal Democrat Mark Williams, Welsh Labour’s Jackie Jones, Conservative Aled Thomas, Tomos Barlow for the Green Party, Karl Robert Pollard for Reform UK, and Taghrid Al-Mawed for the Workers Party of Britain.
With the boundary changes, which see a cut the number of Welsh MPs from 40 to 32, the former constituencies of Ceredigion, Preseli Pembrokeshire, and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire are now no more.
The two new seats are expecting a Plaid Cymru win for Ceredigion Preseli and a Labour win for Mid and South Pembrokeshire, according to polls.
Listed below are the ebb and flow of winners and losers for the now-defunct seats since 1997.
Ceredigion election history: 1997- Plaid Cymru win Cynog Dafis, Robert ‘Hag’ Harris 2nd for Lab; 2000 by-election Plaid win Simon Thomas, Mark Williams Liberal-Democrates 2nd; 2001 election: Simon Thomas hold, Mark Williams 2nd; 2005 – Mark Williams win, Simon Thomas 2nd; 2010 – Mark Williams hold, Penri James for Plaid 2nd; 2015 Mark Williams hold, Mike Parker for Plaid 2nd; 2017 – narrow Ben Lake win for Plaid by 104 votes, Mark Williams 2nd; 2019 – Ben Lake hold by increased majority, Amanda Jenner (Cons) 2nd, Mark Williams 3rd.
For the now defunct Preseli Pembrokeshire, parts of which are in the two new seats, election history was…. 1997 Jack Lawrence (Lab), Robert Buckland (Cons) 2nd; 2001 Jackie Lawrence, Stephen Crabb 2nd; 2005 S Crabb, Sue Heyman (Lab) 2nd; 2010 S Crabb, Mari Rees (Lab); 2015 – S Crabb, Paul Miller (Labour) 2nd; 2017 – S Crabb, Philippa Thompson (Lab) 2nd, 314 majority for SC; 2019 – S Crabb, Phillip Thompson 2nd.
The former Carmarthenshire West and South Pembrokeshire seat, parts of which are in the new Mid and south Pembrokeshire seat, election history is: 1997 Nick Ainger (Lab), Owen Williams (Cons) 2nd; 2001 Nick Ainger, Robert Wilson (Cons) 2nd; 2005 Nick Ainger, David Morris (Cons) 2nd; 2010 Simon Hart (Cons), Nick Ainger 2nd; 2015 Simon Hart, Delyth Evans (Lab) 2nd; 2017 Simon Hart, Marc Tierney (Lab) 2nd; 2019 Simon Hart, Marc Tierney 2nd.
In collated results of different polls from Britain Predicts, The Economist, electionmaps, Electoral Calculus, Focaldata, the FT, Ipsos, More in Common, Savanta, Survation, WeThink, and YouGov, Labour is expected to win the Mid and South Pembrokeshire seat for 2024 with vote percentages ranging from 33 per cent to as high as 50 per cent.
Ceredigion Preseli polls are predicting a Plaid Cymru win, ranging from a narrow 27 per cent of votes win to as much as 48 per cent.
News
Hundreds of Pembrokeshire Council Tax defaulters in court next week

HAVERFORDWEST Magistrates’ Court will hear cases against hundreds of defendants next week as Pembrokeshire County Council seeks liability orders for unpaid council tax and non-domestic rates.
The session, scheduled for Monday (Mar 17) at 10:00am, will see a block of cases between 12:00pm and 1:00pm dedicated to council tax disputes. The council is applying for liability orders under regulation 34 of the Council Tax (Administration and Enforcement) Regulations 1992.
A total of 341 defendants are listed for non-payment of council tax, while a further 18 cases relate to unpaid non-domestic rates under Regulation 12 of the Non-Domestic Rating (Collection and Enforcement) (Local Lists) Regulations 1989.
Liability orders allow the council to take further enforcement action, which may include deductions from wages or benefits, bailiff action, or bankruptcy proceedings.
The Herald will provide further updates following the hearing.
News
Reimburse charities for NI rise, say Welsh Conservatives

CHARITIES not-for-profits, and voluntary organisations in Wales face mounting financial strain due to an increase in employer National Insurance (NI) contributions, prompting calls for government intervention.
The UK Labour Government’s decision to raise employer NI contributions has drawn sharp criticism from the Welsh Conservatives, who warn that the move will place an undue burden on charities and voluntary groups. While public sector bodies such as the NHS and local councils will receive compensation for the additional costs, charities providing essential services under local authority contracts will not be reimbursed.
A survey by the Welsh Council for Voluntary Action (WCVA) found that 84% of voluntary organisations are concerned about how they will manage the NI increase.
Senedd debate on reimbursement
Next week, the Welsh Conservatives will bring forward a Senedd debate urging the Welsh Labour Government to press Westminster for financial support for Welsh charities, not-for-profits, and voluntary organisations. The motion argues these groups should be classified under the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) definition of public sector employees to qualify for reimbursement.
Welsh Conservative Shadow Secretary for Economy, Energy, and Welsh Language, Samuel Kurtz MS, said:
“Welsh charities, not-for-profits, and voluntary organisations play a vital role in delivering public services that the most vulnerable in society depend upon.
“Labour’s decision to increase employer National Insurance contributions will have a detrimental impact on the future and viability of these organisations.
“The Welsh Conservatives are clear: Labour must ensure that Welsh charities, not-for-profits, and voluntary organisations are reimbursed for this rise in employer National Insurance contributions.”
Sector voices concern
The WCVA has also warned that the NI increase could put crucial community services at risk.
A WCVA spokesperson said: “WCVA is deeply concerned about the impact of increased Employers’ National Insurance contributions on voluntary sector organisations across Wales. Many of these organisations already face significant financial pressures, and this increase threatens to put additional strain on their resources and potentially jeopardise vital services delivered to communities.
“We have strongly urged both the UK and Welsh Governments to recognise the invaluable role the voluntary sector plays, especially in partnership with public services. We believe it is critical for voluntary organisations delivering public services to be treated equitably and included in any financial support measures, ensuring they are not disproportionately disadvantaged by these policy changes.
“WCVA welcomes the debate in the Senedd and hopes it will lead to productive discussions and practical solutions to protect the voluntary sector’s essential contribution to Welsh society.”
Motion to be debated
The Senedd motion, set for debate next week, states:
- Notes the UK Government’s increase to employer National Insurance contributions, coming into effect for the 2025-26 tax year.
- Recognises the detrimental impact the increase will have on Welsh charities, not-for-profits, and voluntary organisations.
- Calls on the Welsh Government to make urgent representations to the UK Government to ensure that these organisations delivering public services are included in the ONS-defined public sector category and are reimbursed for the rise in employer National Insurance contributions.
The debate will determine whether Welsh Labour will push for financial support to shield the voluntary sector from these additional costs.
News
Local Authority is ‘hoarding cash’ as Council Tax rises by 9.35%, says MS

DEMANDS FOR REFORM AS COUNCIL’S £83 MILLION RESERVES REVEALED
PEMBROKESHIRE residents are bracing for a 9.35% council tax rise, despite local authorities across Wales holding more than £2 billion in reserves. The increase, among the highest in Wales, comes as families struggle with soaring living costs and a series of consecutive tax hikes.

Local Senedd Member Paul Davies has called for urgent reform, criticising the Welsh Government’s Local Government Funding Formula and urging councils to use their reserves to ease the burden on taxpayers.
‘UNFAIR AND UNSUSTAINABLE’
Mr Davies said: “Under the Welsh Government, the Local Government Funding Formula remains broken.
“It cannot be right that people in Pembrokeshire face such a huge increase in their council tax while councils across Wales are sitting on over £2 billion in usable reserves.
“The Welsh Government must do more to keep council tax as low as possible by encouraging the use of reserves, improving efficiency within councils, and promoting the sharing of resources across council boundaries.”

CALLS FOR CHANGE
The Welsh Conservatives have consistently opposed large council tax increases, calling for an independent review of the Local Government Funding Formula. They argue that councils should:
- Use reserves to reduce tax rises.
- Improve efficiency by cutting unnecessary spending.
- Increase cooperation between councils to share services and lower costs.
RISING RESERVES, RISING BILLS
For years, Pembrokeshire had the lowest council tax in Wales, but after a 12.5% rise in 2024-25, it has surged significantly. Despite this, Pembrokeshire County Council holds £82.6 million in usable reserves, equivalent to 28.4% of its annual service expenditure.
In 2016-17, the council held just £47 million in reserves, rising to £83 million in 2021-22. Critics argue that this surplus should be used to relieve financial pressures rather than imposing further tax hikes.
With councils under fire for hoarding cash while demanding more from residents, pressure is mounting on the Welsh Government to overhaul funding and prevent further unaffordable rises.
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