Community
Wales hurtling towards 10,000 care home bed deficit over next decade
EXPERTS have warned there will be desperate shortage of 10,000 care home beds in Wales over the next decade.
The alert has been raised specialist business property adviser Christie & Co who say there is a growing need for new, “future proof” care homes to meet the need.
Their prediction comes at a time when demand is spiralling upwards, with the over 85 population set to double over the next 20 years.
According to sector champions Care Forum Wales (CFW) the “alarming figures” illustrated the need for social care to be funded properly for existing homes to survive and encourage the development of new ones.
CFW warned that Wales was “sleepwalking into disaster” because the growing shortage of care home beds would pile pressure on the beleaguered NHS when hospitals were already virtually at breaking point.
Building new care homes is a costly business as Gwynedd and Flintshire county councils have shown recently.
They have plans to build two new facilities with a total of around 100 beds between them at an estimated cost of more than £250,000 per bed.
If their figures are correct that would mean it would mean it would cost £400 million for the extra beds needed in North Wales and £2.5 billion for the whole of Wales over the next 10 years.
Worryingly, Christie & Co also revealed in the report that 40 elderly care homes in Wales closed and only four opened between 2020 and 2023 – with no new ones in North Wales.
Among the closures in North Wales were Trewythen Hall in Gresford, Bay Court in Kinmel Bay, Gwastad Hall in Cefn y Bedd and Morfa Newydd in Greenfield with the loss of more than 160 beds.
CFW Chair Mario Kreft MBE said: “The report from Christie & Co paints a bleak picture an illustrates how the existing crisis is going to get even worse, creating a double whammy for our overstretched hospitals which have rows of ambulances queuing outside and patients on trolleys in corridors.
“Instead of being able to build more care homes to meet growing demand, we are seeing more and more care home closures.
“The cost of building new care homes and replacing the beds we are losing now is absolutely eye-watering.
“Our public finances in Wales are already under pressure so where is this money coming from?
“The way care homes are funded in Wales is a total postcode lottery with 29 variations on a theme, with most of social care being commissioned by the 22 local authorities and seven health boards.
“Within that there is a gaping North-South divide with five of the six county councils in North Wales paying the lowest fees, arrived at by a fee-fixing cartel known as the North Wales Regional Fees Group.
“The one shining exception is Conwy Council where earlier this year announced inflation-busting plans to increase fees by up to 20% after warnings that care homes were at risk of financial meltdown and closure.
“Following a long-running campaign by Care Forum Wales they have introduced fairer fees which reflect the actual cost of providing care for vulnerable people in privately run homes, including those with dementia.
“That came about because Conwy broke away from the North Wales Regional Fees Group and took our advice by commissioning leading healthcare economists Laing & Buisson to analyse the true costs of care providers for the current year.
“It’s and internationally recognised tool to ensure that and those living and working in care homes can receive the best care, while at the same time, ensuring that the
“This is something we have been calling for over many years. All we want is fairness in line with the Welsh Government’s ‘Let’s agree to agree’ guidance.
“The fundamental issue threatening the viability of care homes is the unrealistically low fees that the vast majority of councils and health boards pay, fees that come nowhere near covering the true cost of providing care.
“Economically, it would make a lot more sense to ensure the financial security of our existing care homes instead of just relying on the forlorn hope that somebody is going to magically build enough new ones to meet current needs and the increasing demands for social care.
“We’ve had a generation of injustice and it’s a generation where the institutional prejudice and discrimination against the private care sector in Wales has meant that those living and working in these fantastic community assets have not been valued.
“The problems we have in social care lead to the pressures in the NHS which lead of course then to extra costs being placed on the NHS which would largely be alleviated if local authorities had a more enlightened approach to social care.
“If Conwy can do it, the other five local authorities in North Wales can and should do it and of course, the money has always been there. It’s how you politically choose to spend it.
“Across the famous Foryd Bridge, which links Kinmel Bay and Rhyl, Denbighshire County Council is budgeting announced much smaller increases of around 8% on rock bottom fees which have been immediately wiped out by inflation and the cost of living crisis.
“The vastly differing rates mean that Denbighshire will be paying £9,224 a year less per person than Conwy towards the cost of giving exactly the same level of nursing care to residents.
“It is simply an outrage. It’s an affront to the families that that bridge spanning the mouth of the River Clwyd can mean such a massive difference for vulnerable people, including those with dementia.
“The families of those people, who will often be expected to make up the difference, need to ask why and quite frankly, it is a bridge too far.
“This is undoubtedly a stealth tax on families and quite frankly, the people making these decisions in those authorities should be utterly ashamed of themselves in the way they are betraying vulnerable people including those with profound dementia and their families.
“What this demonstrates is that there is an urgent need for us to look again at the way social care is funded.
“We need a national approach to eliminate this iniquitous postcode lottery so that the people for whom we provide care and our staff are treated fairly.
”This is too important to be left to local authorities and health boards alone – it has to be driven by the Welsh Government.”
Pictured: Mario Kreft MBE, Chair of Care Forum Wales
Community
Cilgerran school could be discontinued as consultation launched
A CONSULTATION on proposed changes for a north Pembrokeshire school, which attracted a near-400-strong petition in opposition to the council, has been launched.
At its May meeting, Pembrokeshire County Council considered a report of the School Modernisation Working Group which outlined the findings of a review of education provision in the Preseli area.
“In particular, the review considered the extent of surplus school places in the area, set against a significant decline in the pupil population,” the council in its consultation on proposals for discontinuation of Cilgerran Church in Wales Voluntary Controlled School has said.
A later July meeting of the council, following May’s agreed consultation with St David’s Diocese, backed a general consultation to discontinue Cilgerran Church in Wales Voluntary Controlled School, and to establish it as a 3-11 community school.
The consultation was launched on December 16 and runs to January 30.
Hundreds have opposed the proposed changes, with a petition, on the council’s own website opposing the changes recently closed after gaining 391 signatures.
Any petition of between 100 and 499 signatures triggers a debate at one of the council’s Overview and Scrutiny Committees, and any over 500 a debate at full council, meaning this petition will be heard by committee members at a later date.
The proposals for Cilgerran are part of a wide range of potential education changes in the county.
Two petitions, opposing the potential closures of Manorbier and Ysgol Clydau schools, were recently heard at full council and a further petition opposing the potential closure of Stepaside School has recently been launched.
The Cilgerran e-petition, created by Louise Williams, raised concerns including the school could become part of a federation, a loss of permanent head teacher on site, a shared head teacher would have to oversee several schools, loss of funding control and the ability to maintain the school’s current healthy and stable funding, and a loss of commitment to the church, in turn could impact on the school’s and pupils values, beliefs and cultural beliefs.
It said: “Ysgol Cilgerran VC school has strong links with the Church community in Cilgerran and we believe this will have a negative impact on the children who attend the school, the community of Cilgerran and the links between the two.
“We are proud of our school ethos and values which are strengthened by our links with the church. The school has close and strong relationships with our Church in Wales federation governors one of which is also our safeguarding governor.
“Our Church Federation governors work closely with the school and are regular visitors to the school and the children. They provide vital support and guidance to the school and have a positive impact on the Children’s education. We believe these links will be weakened by this proposal to remove our VC status and we believe this is an un-necessary action.”
Community
‘Harrowing’ distress now the norm for unpaid carers in Wales
“HARROWING” levels of distress have become the norm for unpaid carers in Wales, a committee has heard, with charities warning of a support system “set up to fail”.
Kate Cubbage, director of Carers Trust Wales, told the Senedd’s health scrutiny committee: “There are too many carers who are reaching crisis point without any support.”
Ms Cubbage explained that most councils are supporting fewer than 500 carers, warning: “There are really, really high levels of unmet need within our communities.”
She told Senedd Members that staff are receiving trauma training to support their mental health due to the levels of distress they are seeing among carers.
Ms Cubbage pointed to a University of Birmingham study which found an increased suicide risk among unpaid carers akin to that of veterans who have seen active service.
“One in eight carers has made a plan to end their own life,” she said, calling for carers to be specifically considered in the Welsh Government’s suicide prevention strategy.
“One in ten has made an attempt… at a time when the average local authority has support plans for less than 0.5% of the caring population.”
Warning of deepening poverty in Wales, the witness expressed concerns about a 31% poverty rate among carers – “far higher” than the 22% in the wider population.
Ms Cubbage added that young carers miss more than six full school weeks each year, compared with pupils without caring responsibilities who miss nearer two weeks.

She told the health committee: “It’s no wonder young carers are achieving less at school. They are less likely to go on into further and higher education.
“And if they do make it to university, they’re less likely than their peers to actually graduate.”
Reflecting on a personal note, Ms Cubbage, a parent carer, said her autistic son has accessed services from ophthalmology to audiology over the past 16 years.
“I have never once been signposted to anything that would suggest that I am an unpaid carer or that I can access support… That kind of lived experience is really important.”
Rob Simkins, head of policy at Carers Wales, added: “Things are getting worse: anecdotally, we see that through our services but also that’s what the research tells us.”

He pointed to a Carers Wales survey which has shown a “shocking” 53% increase in the number of carers cutting back on food and heating.
Giving evidence on Wednesday December 17, Mr Simkins warned of a 39% increase in the number of carers reporting “bad” or “very bad” mental health since 2023.
“All the evidence that we’re collecting shows that this is going in one direction,” he told the committee, adding: “And that’s the wrong direction. It’s a bleak context.”
Mr Simkins said census data shows about 310,000 unpaid carers in Wales but research indicates the number could be nearer 500,000 – roughly 15% of the population.
He cautioned that charities across the country, including Carers Wales, are seeing real-terms cuts in funding from the Welsh Government every single year.
Mr Simkins warned of a “shocking” lack of data and a system “set up to fail” more than a decade on from the then-Assembly passing the Social Services and Wellbeing (Wales) Act.
Warning some councils cannot quantify how many carers’ assessments they could carry out over 12 months, he asked: “How on earth are you meant to collect data from unpaid carers and plan services if you can’t even figure out how many you can assess?”
Asked about carers’ assessments, he highlighted a lack of capacity within councils as he warned a “pitifully low number of carers go on to get any support at all”.
Greg Thomas, chief executive of Neath Port Talbot Carers Centre, told Senedd Members the voluntary sector is being increasingly asked to plug gaps without necessary funding.
He warned the jam is having to be spread “ever-more thinly”, creating a tension between reaching as many people as possible and not wanting to compromise quality of support.
“We’re not quite saying ‘no’ to people,” he said. “But we’re having to say a qualified ‘yes’ about what we’re able to offer… We’re massively overstretched, massively oversubscribed.”
Mr Thomas told the committee the carers’ centre has the required reach and expertise, concluding: “It’s almost give us the tools and we can do the job.”
If you have been affected by anything in this story, the Samaritans can be contacted for free, 24/7, on 116 123, or by email at [email protected].
Community
Pembrokeshire council tax rates could go up in 2026
THERE’S just a few days left to have your say on Pembrokeshire’s budget setting for the next financial year, which includes the potential for huge increases in council tax.
Pembrokeshire’s financial situation for next year is some £4m better off after a higher settlement from the Welsh Government, but the council still faces difficult decisions.
While council tax makes up a proportion of the council’s annual revenue, a crucial area of funding is the Aggregate External Finance (AEF) rate from Welsh Government.
Pembrokeshire was to receive a 2.3 per cent increase on its settlement, a total of £244,318,000, amounting to an extra £5,493,000, placing it at joint 13th of the 22 local authorities in Wales.
Now, following a Welsh Government and Plaid Cymru agreement, local authorities including Pembrokeshire have received a better financial settlement.
Speaking at the December meeting of Pembrokeshire County Council, while presenting a report on the outline draft medium term financial plan (MTFP) 2026-27 to 2028-29, Cabinet member for finance Cllr Alistair Cameron said the recent rise in the financial settlement from the Welsh Government had decreased the expected funding gap for the next financial year for the county from £17.7m to £13.6m, but stressed: “There are still increased pressures we are going to have to face.”
The closing date for completed responses to the public consultation is January 4.
The council, in its online consultation, says there are limited ways that the funding gap can be met:
- Increase the rate of council tax charged (each one per cent increase generates approximately £907,000 of additional income).
- Change the way services are provided and delivered – (efficiency gains, reduce what council does etc).
- Increase the amount charged for some services
Cllr Alistair Cameron, Cabinet Member for Corporate Finance and Efficiencies, has said: “It is vitally important that we get the views of as many members of the public as possible to help shape our future proposals with your priorities at the forefront.
“Everyone will be aware that it is increasingly difficult to balance the growing demands on the council but we are determined to put together a budget that enables us to continue to provide essential services for the people of Pembrokeshire.”
The actual setting of the budget and related council tax level along with any potential savings and cuts, will be decided at a later date, with committee scrutiny ahead of Cabinet considering a revised draft budget on February 9, before it is recommended to full council on February 20.
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