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Why experts think Trump’s win will be blow to UK economy and your wallet

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DONALD TRUMP’S return to the US presidency casts an uncertain shadow over the UK, potentially leading to economic shocks that could burden British households with higher costs, lower growth, and less job security. His policy unpredictability and “America First” doctrine spell challenges for UK businesses, while his strong-willed approach to trade and foreign policy could drive a wedge between the two countries.

TRADE TENSIONS COULD COST UK EXPORTERS

Trump’s protectionist stance has reignited concerns about tariffs, which could cut deep into the UK economy. The US is Britain’s largest export market, receiving around 25% of all UK-manufactured exports. Proposed tariffs of up to 10% on imports to the US would affect major British exporters such as Rolls Royce and BAE Systems, impacting an estimated £56 billion in trade. If enacted, such tariffs could push costs higher, threatening thousands of jobs in sectors dependent on American demand.

A STRAINED UK-US RELATIONSHIP

While Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Foreign Secretary David Lammy have made diplomatic overtures to Trump, attending dinners and working closely with Trump’s allies, challenges in the relationship remain evident. Starmer’s reserved style contrasts with Trump’s brash manner, raising questions about how compatible their leadership styles are. This uncertainty, highlighted by one diplomat’s remark that Trump “doesn’t give a stuff” about UK relations, suggests a bumpy road ahead.

Diplomats have tirelessly built relationships with Trump’s inner circle, including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Trump’s likely national security adviser, Elbridge Colby. However, Trump’s mercurial nature, marked by unpredictable social media outbursts and contentious negotiations, may test these connections. As Lammy put it, relations with Trump are likely to be “bumpy, noisy, and transactional.”

ECONOMIC FALLOUT AND SLOWER GROWTH

The potential for UK economic slowdown under Trump’s policies is profound. Economists from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) predict UK growth will be halved if Trump enforces his proposed tariffs. Without tariffs, the UK could expect moderate growth of around 1.2% next year; however, this figure could drop as low as 0.4% should the trade restrictions come into force. Coupled with rising inflation, this could lead to diminished purchasing power for households already grappling with a cost-of-living crisis.

CURRENCY VOLATILITY AND JOB THREATS

Trump’s victory has already weakened the pound, with the GBP/USD exchange rate falling sharply as results came in. Investors are wary of increased tariffs and Trump’s isolationist policies, both of which could stoke currency volatility and strain the UK economy. A weakened pound also drives up the cost of imports, which affects consumers directly through higher prices for everyday goods.

The potential loss of thousands of jobs in sectors heavily reliant on US trade adds to the bleak outlook. Automotive manufacturing, for instance, could be heavily impacted by Trump’s threat of a 100% tariff on imported cars. Companies like Jaguar Land Rover, whose Land Rover Defender was one of the UK’s top exports to the US, may face cutbacks if tariffs make exports uncompetitive.

UNCERTAIN INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT

The UK’s global-facing stock market may also suffer. Companies in the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250, which derive significant profits from international operations, could experience volatility as Trump’s policies introduce uncertainty into transatlantic trade. Such uncertainty could lead investors to shy away from the UK market, diminishing capital inflows and further affecting economic growth.

SHIFTS IN GLOBAL PRIORITIES

Beyond economic pressures, Trump’s foreign policy outlook could exacerbate the UK’s security challenges. Trump’s “America First” rhetoric and emphasis on Asia over Europe may leave European allies, including the UK, less confident about US support for initiatives like defending Ukraine. While the UK has publicly aligned with Trump’s view that Europe should shoulder more of its defense costs, there are fears that a US pivot to Asia could weaken the cohesion of NATO and reduce military backing for Europe.

Lammy has attempted to foster an understanding of Trump’s instincts, acknowledging his focus on American interests and recognition of Asia’s growing influence. However, as the UK looks toward cooperation on issues like Ukraine, this alignment may prove insufficient in securing the support needed to address shared security concerns.

BRITISH FAMILIES TO SHOULDER THE COST

For British families, the impact of a Trump presidency could hit close to home. With increased tariffs potentially driving up inflation by 3-4%, the Bank of England may feel compelled to raise interest rates by as much as 2-3% in response. For households already feeling the pinch from rising prices, this could lead to higher mortgage costs, increased borrowing rates, and a tougher job market, further squeezing living standards.

Though the UK government has prepared for Trump’s return, the effectiveness of these plans remains to be seen. As Britain braces for another unpredictable chapter with Trump at the helm, citizens may face a “bumpy, noisy, and transactional” relationship that could reshape the economy, impacting everything from job security to the prices at the supermarket.

 

Business

Pembrokeshire Broad Haven holiday park works refused

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A DEVELOPMENT call for a Pembrokeshire holiday park has been turned down by Pembrokeshire Coast National Park.

In an application to park planners, Broad Haven Holiday Park, through agent Gerald Blain Associates, sought permission for the relocation of a boat storage area, vehicle shed and play area along with rewilding of adjoining fields at Broad Haven Holiday Park, Broad Haven, near Haverfordwest.

The application was supported by local community council The Havens.

However, an officer report recommended refusal.

Detailing the application, it said: “The proposal relates to the extension of an existing static caravan holiday site into adjacent undeveloped woodland to accommodate the relocation of boat storage, a vehicle shed, and a children’s play area, together with associated ecological mitigation measures. No increased pitch numbers are proposed.

“The development site has already undergone some site clearance, resulting in the removal of approximately 1,000 square metres of woodland.”

It went on to say: “The existing site is already intervisible with the coast, and the proposed relocation of boat storage would likely increase its visibility rather than reduce it. Without supporting evidence in the form of a Landscape and Visual Impact Assessment (LVIA) or Zone of Theoretical Visibility (ZTV) demonstrating that the development would be visually contained, the proposal appears contrary to the guidance contained within the SPG and the objectives of Policy 41.

“As a result, the proposed development is considered to detract from the special qualities of the National Park in this location and would be detrimental to the quality and character of the landscape character area in which the site sits, and as such does not comply [with policies].”

The application was refused on grounds including it being sited within previously undeveloped land within a flood zone, a lack of information on potential impacts on biodiversity, and it is “considered to detract from the special qualities of the national park in this location and would be detrimental to the quality and character of the landscape character area in which the site sits”.

 

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Business

Manorbier caravan park call refused by national park

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A CALL to allow a Pembrokeshire caravan park to change part of its site from touring vans to static units without a formal planning application has been refused.

In an application to Pembrokeshire Coast National Park, Norfolk-based Park Farm Opco Ltd, through Chipping Norton-based agent Laister Planning Limited, sought a Lawful Development Certificate for the proposed stationing of static caravans in lieu of touring caravans, year-round, at Park Farm Holiday Park, Manorbier.

A supporting statement accompanying the application said: “The purpose of this application is to confirm that the touring caravans so permitted for year-round occupation on the western field at Park Farm, are capable of being replaced by static caravan pitches without effecting a material change of use. There is no specific number of touring or static caravans which is being sought at this juncture.”

It says Park Farm Holiday Park comprises of two areas, area A having some 61 owner-occupied static caravans, and area B used for touring caravan pitches and tents.

Planning permission was originally granted way back in 1956 for the caravan site, on a temporary basis, a Lawful Development Certificate for an existing use for the use of the site for up to 70 static caravans granted in December 1998, mainly covering area A.

The statement said the lawfulness of siting caravans year-round was previously confirmed by the park in 2024 “use as a campsite for touring caravans (not including twin-unit static caravans) and tents which shall be occupied for holiday use only and used as temporary, non-permanent units on a year-round basis”.

Of the proposals, it said: “The site is currently used for the stationing of touring caravans all year round. Most of the caravans on the site are stationed on what is called a ‘seasonal’ basis, where the owners leave them permanently stationed on the site and use them as holiday homes, paying an annual ‘seasonal’ fee.

“The proposed use of the site is to replace the permanently stationed touring caravans with permanently stationed static caravans. No specific number is provided, as no number is provided in any of the existing certificates, but it is anticipated that the total number of caravans in the application site will inevitably be reduced as the caravans are generally larger.

“There would be no other change in the way the site is operated, and the intention is to use the caravans for holiday purposes.”

An officer report recommending the certificate of lawfulness for the change be refused, saying it was “not satisfied that the evidence accompanying the application is sufficient to establish that the proposed use would be lawful”.

It said that while lawfulness certificates for tourers had been granted “it is considered that the siting of single-unit statics in lieu of those tourers, as now proposed, would be inconsistent with the lawful use of the site, and cannot be considered lawful in the same way,” adding “the changes proposed would result in a definable character change to the site of a magnitude that would be sufficient to amount to a material change of use requiring planning permission”.

The application for a certificate of lawfulness was refused on the grounds “the proposed use of the site would represent a material change of use requiring planning permission for which no permitted development rights exist, meaning a specific grant of planning permission is needed in order for the scheme to proceed”.

 

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Pembrokeshire Paddle West South Quay boat shed approved

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A PADDLEBOARDING and canoeing company’s call for an extension to a boat shed at Pembroke’s South Quay, below its historic castle, has been given the go-ahead by county planners.

In an application to Pembrokeshire County Council, G Booth of Paddle West CIC, through agent James Dwyer Associates, sought permission for an extension to the stone-built boathouse, adjacent to the cliff on South Quay fronting the Mill Pond, Pembroke.

A supporting statement said: “It is intended to erect a single storey ‘lean-to’ building, or ‘shed’ for the storage of boats, such as canoes and kayaks, and related equipment, on a vacant space adjacent to the existing stone-built boathouse.”

It added: “The boathouse and the intended adjacent boat storage shed is located, as is to be expected, in close proximity to water, the Mill Pond. The Mill Pond is the main area of activity for Paddle West, a Community Interest Company, providing boating activities, kayaking, canoeing and paddle boarding, frequently for young people and families.”

It went on to say: “It is intended that the structure would be lightweight, erected on the exiting hard standing. The ‘shed’ would be used for the storage of boats and related equipment.”

With regard to the historic setting, it added: “Although the stone-built boathouse appears not to be listed, it is recognised that the walls above are listed and together they are a piece.

“Accordingly, through form and external materials proposed, timber cladding and profile sheet roofing, the aim is to ensure that the structure would be subservient and muted and not detract or compete with the visual aesthetic of the boathouse or historic walls. In effect the addition would blend into the background.”

The application, supported by Pembroke Town Council, was conditionally approved by county planners.

The boathouse is sited near to the new Henry Tudor Centre in South Quay, which is due to open in Spring 2027.

The centre, expected to receive around 30,000 visitors a year, will tell the story of Henry Tudor, son of Pembroke, his Welsh ancestry and his impact on our national story, Welsh culture and our wider British heritage.

The restored derelict South Quay buildings will also house a new library and community café, and a healthcare, social services and supported employment facility in the adjoining premises.

 

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