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Plaid Cymru surges as Labour slumps to historic low in Senedd poll

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Reform UK also gains ground as Welsh politics enters period of upheaval

A NEW poll suggests Welsh politics could be heading for a dramatic shake-up in the run-up to the 2026 Senedd election, with Plaid Cymru pulling ahead and Labour hitting its lowest level of support since devolution began.

The YouGov survey, commissioned by ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, puts Plaid Cymru in the lead with 30% of the vote, followed closely by Reform UK on 25%. Labour trails in third place with just 18%—a record low for the party that has dominated Welsh politics for over a century.

Seat projections based on the poll suggest a possible minority government led by Plaid Cymru, which could win around 35 seats in the 60-member Senedd. Reform UK is projected to take 30, Labour 19, the Conservatives 9, and the Liberal Democrats 3. However, with around 10 seats falling within the poll’s margin of error, the balance of power could still shift depending on voter sentiment.

ITV Cymru Wales’ Political Editor, Adrian Masters, compared the situation to Scotland’s political turning point in 2007, when the SNP formed a minority government that went on to secure a majority.

A breakdown of support by age shows Plaid Cymru performing strongest among younger voters, with 46% of 16 to 24-year-olds backing the party. Reform UK’s support grows with age, peaking at 34% among voters aged 50 to 64. Labour’s support is more evenly spread across age groups but remains lower than that of its rivals.

First Minister Eluned Morgan responded to the poll by warning of the “real danger” that Labour could lose power in Wales. She called for a clearer “red Welsh way” that speaks directly to Wales-specific concerns, setting the party apart from UK Labour policy.

With Plaid Cymru and Reform UK now posing serious challenges to Labour’s long-held dominance, the stage is set for a transformative election in 2026—potentially reshaping the future of Welsh governance.

 

Crime

Hakin man’s appeal delayed again as Crown Court seeks guidance on insurance law

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A HAKIN man’s long-running legal battle over road traffic convictions has been delayed again after a judge granted the Crown Prosecution Service more time to review the latest legal guidance on motor insurance law.

Seventy-six-year-old Niall Taylor, of Haven Drive, appeared at Swansea Crown Court on Tuesday (Jan 13) for a mention hearing in his appeal against conviction.

Taylor is challenging findings that he drove without a valid licence and without insurance.

The case has already followed an unusual procedural route. Taylor initially pleaded not guilty before changing his plea part-way through the original magistrates’ court trial. That later raised questions over whether the plea had been “equivocal”, prompting the court to reopen proceedings under Section 142 of the Magistrates’ Courts Act 1980.

A full rehearing was ordered, during which Taylor again entered not guilty pleas. Following a trial of the facts, magistrates found him guilty and sentenced him on Wednesday (Dec 3).

He has since lodged an appeal.

CPS given 28 days

During Tuesday’s hearing, His Honour Judge Walters granted counsel for the Crown Prosecution Service 28 days to review Wilkinson’s Road Traffic Offences (32nd Edition), the leading legal reference text used by courts and practitioners in road traffic cases.

The judge indicated that the legal position surrounding insurance cover may still require closer examination.

Addressing the court, Judge Walters said: “The court still might want to reconsider the sentence even if the insurance company is right. It does look as if different insurance companies do things in different ways.”

He added: “It is not in fact void, but it is voidable.”

Ongoing dispute

Taylor maintains that although there were administrative issues with his driving licence, a valid insurance policy was in force at the time and that, under retained European motor insurance law, third-party cover cannot simply be voided.

He argues that the matter amounts to a technical breach rather than deliberate offending.

Next hearing

The appeal is now scheduled to return to Swansea Crown Court on March 27, when further legal argument is expected.

 

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Business

Pub rate relief welcomed but closures still feared

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CAMRA warns one-year discount is only a sticking plaster as many Welsh locals face rising bills

A BUSINESS rates discount for Welsh pubs has been welcomed as a step in the right direction — but campaigners warn it will not be enough to stop more locals from shutting their doors.

The Campaign for Real Ale (CAMRA) says the Welsh Government’s decision to offer a 15 per cent reduction on business rates bills for the coming year will provide short-term breathing space for struggling publicans.

However, it believes the move fails to tackle deeper problems in the rating system that continue to pile pressure on community pubs across Wales, including in Pembrokeshire and Carmarthenshire.

Chris Charters, Director of CAMRA Wales, said: “Today’s announcement from the Finance Secretary that pubs will get 15% discount on their business rates bills is a welcome step.

“However, many pubs still face big hikes in their bills due to the rates revaluation which could still lead to more of our locals in Wales being forced to close for good.

“15% off for a year is only the start of supporting pubs with business rates. It won’t fix the unfair business rates system our pubs are being crushed by.”

He added: “Welsh publicans need a permanent solution, or doors will continue to close and communities will be shut away from these essential social hubs that help tackle loneliness and isolation.”

Mounting pressure on locals

Under plans announced by the Welsh Government, pubs will receive a temporary discount on their rates bills for the next financial year.

But CAMRA argues that many premises are simultaneously facing sharp increases following the latest revaluation, which recalculates rateable values based on property size and trading potential.

For some smaller, rural venues, especially those already operating on tight margins, the increases could wipe out the benefit of the relief entirely.

Publicans say they are also contending with rising energy costs, higher wages, supplier price hikes and changing customer habits since the pandemic.

In west Wales, several long-standing village pubs have either reduced their opening hours or put their businesses on the market in the past year, with landlords warning that overheads are becoming unsustainable.

Community role

Campaigners stress that the issue goes beyond beer sales.

Pubs are often described as the last remaining social spaces in small communities — hosting charity events, sports teams, live music and local groups.

In parts of rural Pembrokeshire, a pub can be the only public meeting place left after the loss of shops, banks and post offices.

CAMRA says supermarkets and online retailers enjoy structural advantages that traditional pubs cannot match, making it harder for locals to compete on price.

The organisation is now calling on ministers to introduce a permanently lower business rates multiplier for pubs, rather than relying on short-term discounts.

Long-term reform call

CAMRA wants whoever forms the next Welsh administration to commit to fundamental reform of the rating system, arguing that pubs should be recognised as community assets rather than treated like large commercial premises.

Without change, it warns, the number of closures is likely to accelerate.

Charters said: “This is about protecting the future of our locals. Once a pub shuts, it rarely reopens. We can’t afford to lose any more.”

For many communities across west Wales, the fear is simple: temporary relief may buy time — but it may not be enough to save the local.

 

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Local Government

Council tax rise options to be debated by Cabinet

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Leader signals support for lower increase as schools set for £4.7m boost

PEMBROKESHIRE COUNTY COUNCIL’S Cabinet will next week consider how much residents will be asked to pay in Council Tax as part of the authority’s 2026–27 budget setting process.

Members of Pembrokeshire County Council will meet on Monday (Feb 9) to examine two proposed options: a 4.6 per cent increase, equivalent to £1.46 per week for a Band D property, or a 7.5 per cent rise, equal to £2.38 per week.

Council leader Jon Harvey said the authority aimed to keep any rise as low as possible while protecting frontline services.

“In setting this year’s budget it’s our intention to ask the least possible from tax paying residents while still providing the vital services they rely upon,” he said.

He added that he expects Cabinet to favour the lower increase when it makes its recommendation to full council.

Mr Harvey said the lower option would still allow the authority to safeguard services and provide “significantly more money” for schools, with an additional £4.7 million earmarked for education.

He also highlighted the need for further investment in highways, building maintenance and street cleaning teams.

“We know these services are important to residents and so we intend to prioritise them,” he said.

The leader said the financial pressures created by the pandemic, rising costs and increasing demand for social care had led to unavoidable tax increases in recent years.

However, he added: “Going forward, I am very aware we cannot keep asking residents to pay significantly more and it is our intention to get back to Council Tax increases that are broadly in line with inflation.”

The Cabinet meeting starts at 10:00am and will be broadcast live via the council’s usual webcast platform.

 

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