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Are the traditional parties in Wales underestimating Reform UK?

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By-election wins, surging polls and a reshaped Senedd system fuel Reform’s rapid rise

REFORM UK is no longer a fringe force in Welsh politics. With polling surges, a local by-election victory, and a favourable new voting system set to reshape the Senedd in 2026, the party is rapidly gaining traction—and some believe traditional parties are failing to grasp the scale of its momentum.

On the rise: Reform in Wales

A May 2025 YouGov/ITV Wales poll placed Reform UK second in Wales with 25% of the projected vote—just behind Plaid Cymru on 30%, and well ahead of Labour on 18%. That number is a stark decline: Labour won a 36% regional vote in 2021, making its current standing half of its previous share.

Disillusionment among Labour voters is evident. Only 40% of those who backed Labour in the 2024 UK general election currently intend to do so for the next Senedd election, with substantial numbers shifting to Plaid Cymru (24%), Liberal Democrats (8%), Reform UK (5%), and Greens (4%).

Local Shifts and Breakthroughs

Michelle Beer has been elected as Carmarthenshire’s first Reform councillor (Image: Reform)

On May 29, Reform achieved a breakthrough when Michelle Beer won the Lliedi ward by-election in Llanelli—becoming the party’s first elected councillor in Carmarthenshire. In a ward long seen as Labour territory, the win signalled a dramatic shift.

Reform volunteers preparing election materials in Carmarthenshire (Image: Facebook)

That momentum continued days earlier in Pembrokeshire, when Scott Thorley, a former Reform candidate, was co-opted onto Haverfordwest Town Council. His appointment ignited local opposition from campaigners concerned about Reform’s stance on the Anti-racist Wales Action Plan (AWAP).

The AWAP Dispute and Political Fallout

Scott Thorley’s co-option onto Haverfordwest Town Council has sparked a petition (Image: Supplied)

Reform UK has openly opposed the AWAP, criticising its focus on identity-based policies, such as increased grants for ethnic minority student teachers and cultural accommodation in public spaces. Critics say these measures undermine meritocracy and divide communities.

After Thorley’s co-option, political graffiti at Withybush Retail Park—featuring slogans like “VOTE REFORM” and “GOD SAVE US”—only intensified debate. Thorley swiftly condemned the graffiti, calling it “vandalism, plain and simple,” and defended the party’s intentions.

“As I have been invited to help on the anti‑racist action plan … I’m really confused by their comments. … Politics is about talking and helping people. … stop acting like stroppy teenagers.”
— Scott Thorley, Town Councillor, speaking to The Pembrokeshire Herald

Leadership turbulence and image strategy
Reform has also faced internal turbulence. Chairman Zia Yusuf, a practising Muslim, resigned on June 5, citing exhaustion and policy disagreements—particularly over a proposed burka ban—but reversed that decision just two days later. He returned to lead a new strategy unit focused on governance, fundraising, and outreach. His continued presence is seen as key to diversifying Reform’s image and countering claims of intolerance.

Farage, culture wars, and language policy

Nigel Farage: Wants to scrap Welsh Language targets and identity-based policymaking

At the helm, Nigel Farage has declared Wales a top priority, urging voters to back ‘real change’. He promised to scrap policies such as the 20mph default speed limit, the “Nation of Sanctuary” scheme, and the Welsh Government’s goal of one million Welsh speakers by 2050—labelled by Reform as cultural overreach.

While Farage offered limited detail on his opposition to the Welsh-language target, his position aligns with a broader opposition to identity-based policymaking.

Even Plaid warns: “Reform could win”

The growing momentum behind Reform UK has not gone unnoticed by its political opponents. Speaking at the party’s Spring conference in Llandudno, Plaid Cymru’s Westminster leader Liz Saville Roberts warned party members that Reform could become the largest party in the Senedd if they are not taken seriously.

“If we—Plaid Cymru—do not provide solutions to Labour’s failings, there is something worse waiting in the wings to take their place,” she said.

“If we do not take this threat seriously, they could become the biggest party in the Senedd—our national parliament. If that happens, it would be a disaster for Wales. This must galvanise us.”

Saville Roberts accused Reform of thriving on division and warned that the party would seek to privatise the NHS, strip away workers’ rights, and undermine Welsh identity and the language.

Pushback from Welsh leaders

Welsh Labour’s First Minister Mark Drakeford condemned the proposal to remove the language goal, asserting that the Welsh language “belongs to us all” and should be defended from external political interference. Plaid Cymru MS Llŷr Gruffydd dismissed Farage’s claims as “empty soundbites” and accused him of “railing against Welsh culture and identity” to advance his own agenda.

Labour’s collapse in its historical heartlands is resonating at the grassroots. The Barn Cymru poll confirms their support is now the lowest since devolution began, under 20%. Meanwhile, local expressions of discontent are growing, with public services—especially in rural and post-industrial areas—seen as deteriorating, boosting calls for change.

A once-unshakeable Labour dominance is cracking. With Plaid Cymru and Reform UK capitalising on voter fatigue, policy stumbles, and identity politics backlash, Wales is entering a new era of volatility. As the Senedd moves to proportional representation, the question isn’t whether Reform will take seats, but whether Labour has already ceded too much ground.

 

Charity

Milford Haven Beer Fest set for Bank Holiday return

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Festival promises live music, Welsh ales and community spirit at the waterfront

MILFORD HAVEN Beer Fest is set to return later this month, with organisers promising another packed day of live music, craft drinks and festival atmosphere.

The popular annual event will take place at Milford Waterfront on Saturday, May 23, inside the Ascona Group Marquee, with doors opening at 12:00pm.

Organisers say no advance tickets will be available, with entry operating on a first come, first served basis. Another sell-out is expected and early arrival is strongly advised.

A wide range of Welsh breweries and drinks producers will be represented, including Tenby Harbwr Brewery, Bluestone Brewing Company, Gethin’s Cider, Mantle Brewery, Gower Brewery and Core of the Poodle.

Tiny Rebel Brewery will also be serving lagers, IPAs and its new stout, Coal Drop, while Barti Rum will showcase its latest canned drinks. Prosecco and Pimm’s will also be available.

Entertainment throughout the day will be hosted by Pure West Radio, with headliners 4th Street returning to the waterfront.

The line-up also includes a DJ set from former Welsh rugby international and British and Irish Lion Josh Navidi, alongside performances from Steve Bartram, Big Chicken, Jake Taylor, Function 22 and Natalie O’Brien.

Festivalgoers will also be able to enjoy a street food zone featuring Grub Tacos, Junkyard Dogs and Reeves BBQ.

Community support

Nathan Rees, chairman of Milford Haven Round Table said: “The Beer Festival is a huge highlight for us – not just for the atmosphere, but for the impact it has.

“Every penny raised goes back into the community, funding events like our Carnival and Fireworks and supporting local causes.

“We’re also incredibly grateful to The Ascona Group for their continued sponsorship and to the Port of Milford Haven for their ongoing support as our Major Events Partner, as well as all the Beer Festival sponsors for 2026.”

Ticket information

Entry costs £25 and includes four drink tokens, a festival cup and live entertainment throughout the day.

Additional drink tokens will cost £2.50 each, with cash and card accepted.

The event is strictly over-18s only.

Organisers say there will be a 100 per cent bag search policy, with visitors strongly advised not to bring bags. Free water will be available, and dogs will not be allowed.

 

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Pembroke Dock charity shop expands to support hospice care

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SHOP NOW OPEN SEVEN DAYS A WEEK AFTER EXPANSION INTO ADJOINING UNIT

A CHARITY shop in Pembroke Dock has expanded into a neighbouring unit to help raise more money for local hospice care.

Paul Sartori Hospice at Home has completed a knock-through at its shop in Bierspool, London Road, creating a larger retail space and allowing the charity to offer a wider range of items, including furniture.

The expanded shop was officially opened on Friday (May 1) by the outgoing Mayor of Pembroke Dock, Cllr Michelle Wiggins.

The shop team, led by Kelly Elliot and supported by volunteers, worked for several weeks to prepare the new-look store for customers.

Head of Retail Julia Brady welcomed guests at the opening, while the charity also thanked staff, volunteers and supporters who helped decorate and prepare the premises.

Special thanks were given to Gill at Pembroke Dock Tesco for donating treats for customers and staff on the day.

Paul Sartori Hospice at Home operates nine retail shops and an eBay department. Income from donations and sales helps fund the charity’s clinical teams, who provide free specialist palliative care to patients and families across Pembrokeshire.

The charity says it costs £3,600 every day to deliver its free clinical services. Around 30% of that cost is funded through Hywel Dda Health Board, with the remainder raised through retail income, fundraising and community support.

The Pembroke Dock shop is now open seven days a week, giving people more opportunities to shop, donate and support local hospice care.

Paul Sartori Hospice at Home was established in memory of Father Paul Sartori, a much-loved local priest who recognised the need for hospice care before his death from cancer at the age of 39.

The charity provides care for people with any life-limiting condition, not only cancer, and supports patients of all faiths and none. It operates an open referral system, with referrals accepted from patients, families, friends and healthcare professionals.

Paul Sartori Foundation Ltd operates under the name Paul Sartori Hospice at Home. The charity was registered in 1982 and will celebrate its 45th anniversary during 2027/2028.

 

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Ysgol Bro Teifi celebrates national championship rugby success

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UNDER-18 SIDE LIFTS WRU PLATE AFTER HARD-FOUGHT FINAL AT RODNEY PARADE

YSGOL BRO TEIFI’S under-18 rugby team are celebrating national success after winning the WRU Schools and Colleges Plate Final at Rodney Parade.

The Ceredigion side travelled to Newport to face Ysgol Maes y Gwendraeth in a fast, physical and closely contested final.

Bro Teifi made a strong start, with tries from Elis Evans, Llew Thomas and Jack Brown giving them an early advantage. Dafydd Nichols-Evans added the extras from the kicking tee as the team went into half-time 19-14 ahead.

The second half proved even tighter, with Ysgol Maes y Gwendraeth applying sustained pressure and forcing Bro Teifi to defend with discipline and determination.

A late try gave Bro Teifi breathing space before Nichols-Evans held his nerve in the closing stages, landing a crucial penalty to seal a 27-19 victory.

The school said the win reflected the hard work, commitment and talent of the players, as well as the support of staff, parents and fans throughout the season.

Headteacher Gareth Evans said: “This game is the culmination of a tough season for the boys as they beat much bigger schools on the way to the final.

“It also builds on the school’s reputation in sport, with numerous successes this year across a range of sports and age groups.

“I would like to thank all the school staff for their tireless work in ensuring these experiences for our pupils, and the parents for their support.”

Photo caption: Plate winners: Ysgol Bro Teifi’s under-18 rugby team celebrate their national success at Rodney Parade.

 

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