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Are the traditional parties in Wales underestimating Reform UK?

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By-election wins, surging polls and a reshaped Senedd system fuel Reform’s rapid rise

REFORM UK is no longer a fringe force in Welsh politics. With polling surges, a local by-election victory, and a favourable new voting system set to reshape the Senedd in 2026, the party is rapidly gaining traction—and some believe traditional parties are failing to grasp the scale of its momentum.

On the rise: Reform in Wales

A May 2025 YouGov/ITV Wales poll placed Reform UK second in Wales with 25% of the projected vote—just behind Plaid Cymru on 30%, and well ahead of Labour on 18%. That number is a stark decline: Labour won a 36% regional vote in 2021, making its current standing half of its previous share.

Disillusionment among Labour voters is evident. Only 40% of those who backed Labour in the 2024 UK general election currently intend to do so for the next Senedd election, with substantial numbers shifting to Plaid Cymru (24%), Liberal Democrats (8%), Reform UK (5%), and Greens (4%).

Local Shifts and Breakthroughs

Michelle Beer has been elected as Carmarthenshire’s first Reform councillor (Image: Reform)

On May 29, Reform achieved a breakthrough when Michelle Beer won the Lliedi ward by-election in Llanelli—becoming the party’s first elected councillor in Carmarthenshire. In a ward long seen as Labour territory, the win signalled a dramatic shift.

Reform volunteers preparing election materials in Carmarthenshire (Image: Facebook)

That momentum continued days earlier in Pembrokeshire, when Scott Thorley, a former Reform candidate, was co-opted onto Haverfordwest Town Council. His appointment ignited local opposition from campaigners concerned about Reform’s stance on the Anti-racist Wales Action Plan (AWAP).

The AWAP Dispute and Political Fallout

Scott Thorley’s co-option onto Haverfordwest Town Council has sparked a petition (Image: Supplied)

Reform UK has openly opposed the AWAP, criticising its focus on identity-based policies, such as increased grants for ethnic minority student teachers and cultural accommodation in public spaces. Critics say these measures undermine meritocracy and divide communities.

After Thorley’s co-option, political graffiti at Withybush Retail Park—featuring slogans like “VOTE REFORM” and “GOD SAVE US”—only intensified debate. Thorley swiftly condemned the graffiti, calling it “vandalism, plain and simple,” and defended the party’s intentions.

“As I have been invited to help on the anti‑racist action plan … I’m really confused by their comments. … Politics is about talking and helping people. … stop acting like stroppy teenagers.”
— Scott Thorley, Town Councillor, speaking to The Pembrokeshire Herald

Leadership turbulence and image strategy
Reform has also faced internal turbulence. Chairman Zia Yusuf, a practising Muslim, resigned on June 5, citing exhaustion and policy disagreements—particularly over a proposed burka ban—but reversed that decision just two days later. He returned to lead a new strategy unit focused on governance, fundraising, and outreach. His continued presence is seen as key to diversifying Reform’s image and countering claims of intolerance.

Farage, culture wars, and language policy

Nigel Farage: Wants to scrap Welsh Language targets and identity-based policymaking

At the helm, Nigel Farage has declared Wales a top priority, urging voters to back ‘real change’. He promised to scrap policies such as the 20mph default speed limit, the “Nation of Sanctuary” scheme, and the Welsh Government’s goal of one million Welsh speakers by 2050—labelled by Reform as cultural overreach.

While Farage offered limited detail on his opposition to the Welsh-language target, his position aligns with a broader opposition to identity-based policymaking.

Even Plaid warns: “Reform could win”

The growing momentum behind Reform UK has not gone unnoticed by its political opponents. Speaking at the party’s Spring conference in Llandudno, Plaid Cymru’s Westminster leader Liz Saville Roberts warned party members that Reform could become the largest party in the Senedd if they are not taken seriously.

“If we—Plaid Cymru—do not provide solutions to Labour’s failings, there is something worse waiting in the wings to take their place,” she said.

“If we do not take this threat seriously, they could become the biggest party in the Senedd—our national parliament. If that happens, it would be a disaster for Wales. This must galvanise us.”

Saville Roberts accused Reform of thriving on division and warned that the party would seek to privatise the NHS, strip away workers’ rights, and undermine Welsh identity and the language.

Pushback from Welsh leaders

Welsh Labour’s First Minister Mark Drakeford condemned the proposal to remove the language goal, asserting that the Welsh language “belongs to us all” and should be defended from external political interference. Plaid Cymru MS Llŷr Gruffydd dismissed Farage’s claims as “empty soundbites” and accused him of “railing against Welsh culture and identity” to advance his own agenda.

Labour’s collapse in its historical heartlands is resonating at the grassroots. The Barn Cymru poll confirms their support is now the lowest since devolution began, under 20%. Meanwhile, local expressions of discontent are growing, with public services—especially in rural and post-industrial areas—seen as deteriorating, boosting calls for change.

A once-unshakeable Labour dominance is cracking. With Plaid Cymru and Reform UK capitalising on voter fatigue, policy stumbles, and identity politics backlash, Wales is entering a new era of volatility. As the Senedd moves to proportional representation, the question isn’t whether Reform will take seats, but whether Labour has already ceded too much ground.

 

Education

Mobile phone restrictions for Welsh schools as minister sets out education priorities

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SCHOOLS across Wales are to receive statutory guidance on restricting pupils’ mobile phone use during the school day, the Welsh Government has announced.

The move follows a consultation and a workforce survey which found strong support for national direction on the issue.

Although most schools already have mobile phone policies, the survey found there was no consistent approach across Wales. It also found that 82% of respondents supported statutory restrictions.

Cabinet Minister for Education and Welsh Language, Anna Brychan

The new guidance for local authorities and schools will set out clearer expectations on how phones should be used during the school day. It will be evaluated over the school year, with ministers leaving open the option of strengthening the rules further if required.

Cabinet Minister for Education and Welsh Language, Anna Brychan said: “Our 100-day plan was clear that we would act, and I have listened to the calls for stronger clarity on this issue.

“This is why the government will publish statutory guidance to provide clear national expectations on how mobile phones are used in schools.

“I want to be clear: as Cabinet Minister, I fully support — and strongly encourage — headteachers to introduce clear and robust restrictions on mobile phone use during the school day, up to and including a full restriction across the school site.

“I am mindful some children will always need exceptions, for medical reasons for example.

“By consulting on guidance at the start of the school year I am giving schools the clarity they want quickly, and creating a safer learning environment by reducing distractions now.”

The Welsh Government said it would also consider the implications of UK Government plans for new restrictions on under-16s’ access to social media.

Ms Brychan said ministers were committed to protecting young people online and would work with school leaders and partners across the education system in Wales as the proposals develop.

The announcement came as the Education Minister set out wider priorities for the sector, including raising standards, strengthening Welsh language provision, improving skills and creating what she described as a system that works for everyone.

The Welsh Government said it would develop a new Foundational Literacy and Numeracy Plan before the end of the summer and review the curriculum.

Other priorities include reducing workload for education staff, expanding Welsh-medium education, ensuring learners have more opportunities to use Welsh beyond the classroom, and reviewing how universities are funded.

Ms Brychan added: “Education is the key to unleashing our nation’s potential and there is no shortage of talent, energy and innovation in Wales.

“If we want to unlock this potential and build a stronger Wales, we need a stronger education system.

“We will raise standards, strengthen the Welsh language, develop skills and build a system that works.

“By working together, we can provide opportunity, ambition and excellence for all learners, in all parts of Wales and support the workforce that makes it possible.

“This Government has made education a priority because the future of Wales depends on it.”

 

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Education

Science teaching in Wales ‘too variable’, watchdog warns

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Estyn report highlights strengths in classrooms but says too many pupils face gaps in learning

A NEW report by Wales’ education watchdog has found examples of excellent science teaching across the country but warns that inconsistent provision is preventing many pupils from developing the scientific knowledge and skills they need.

Inspectors from Estyn found strong practice in both primary and secondary schools, with some pupils benefiting from engaging practical experiments, real-world learning opportunities and well-planned lessons that build understanding over time.

However, the report concludes that the quality of science education remains “too variable” across Wales, with weaknesses in curriculum planning, teaching and assessment continuing to affect pupils’ progress.

Inspectors said problems were particularly evident when pupils moved from primary to secondary school, where poor coordination often led to repetition of work, gaps in learning and uneven levels of challenge.

His Majesty’s Chief Inspector, Owen Evans, said science education plays a crucial role in preparing young people for future careers.

“Science plays a vital role in helping young people understand the world around them and preparing them for future study and employment,” he said.

“While we saw encouraging examples of effective practice in schools across Wales, too many pupils experience an inconsistent science curriculum that does not build their knowledge and understanding systematically enough over time.”

The report also highlights ongoing difficulties recruiting and retaining specialist science teachers, particularly in Welsh-medium education.

Growing importance

The findings come at a time when demand for science, technology and engineering skills is increasing across west Wales.

Projects linked to renewable energy, environmental monitoring, advanced manufacturing and the Celtic Freeport are expected to create new opportunities requiring strong STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) skills over the coming years.

Estyn said schools need to strengthen teachers’ subject knowledge, improve curriculum planning and work more closely together to ensure pupils progress smoothly through their education.

The watchdog also called on local authorities, school improvement services and the Welsh Government to invest further in science-specific professional development and tackle shortages of specialist teachers.

The report was commissioned by the Welsh Government and examined science teaching in primary, secondary and all-age schools across Wales.

 

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Community

Campaigner’s MBE for supporting families affected by child-to-parent abuse

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Michelle John founded PEGS in 2020 and has helped thousands of parents across the UK while driving national awareness of a little-understood issue

A PEMBROKESHIRE-born campaigner who has dedicated her career to supporting families affected by child-to-parent abuse has been recognised in the King’s Birthday Honours List.

Michelle John, who grew up in Pembrokeshire and now lives in Shropshire, has been awarded an MBE for services to family support and advocacy.

Michelle is the founder of PEGS, a social enterprise established in 2020 to help parents and carers experiencing abusive behaviour from their children. The organisation also works with professionals, policymakers and employers to improve understanding of Child to Parent Abuse (CPA), an issue believed to affect up to one in ten households across the UK.

Since launching PEGS, Michelle has built a specialist team that has trained police officers, teachers, social workers and other frontline professionals to recognise the signs of CPA and provide effective support to affected families.

The organisation has also developed a range of services for parents, including daily practitioner-led support sessions, peer support networks and one-to-one assistance for those considered most at risk.

Michelle’s work has gained national recognition, with PEGS helping to shape policy discussions and working alongside government departments to raise awareness of the issue. The organisation also launched a Child to Parent Abuse Covenant for employers in partnership with the Department for Work and Pensions.

In addition, Michelle has advised organisations including the Home Office, the BBC and Channel 4, helping inform storylines and coverage designed to increase public understanding of child-to-parent abuse.

Responding to the honour, Michelle said: “This honour is also shared with the parents who have trusted me along the way: they drive me, inspire me and I will always stand with them.

“I feel proud, privileged and very grateful – and I’d like to thank everyone who has supported me and PEGS along the way.

“There is much more to come for PEGS, and we will continue to work every day for the parents and carers who have been or continue to be affected by CPA.”

Reflecting on receiving the award, she added: “Being told I’d received an MBE will always remain a truly incredible moment that I’ll remember forever.”

The award recognises more than six years of campaigning, support work and advocacy aimed at bringing greater awareness to a problem that often remains hidden behind closed doors.

Child-to-parent abuse can include physical violence, verbal abuse, coercive control, intimidation, property damage and financial abuse directed towards parents or carers by their children.

Michelle’s work has helped shine a light on the issue nationally, ensuring that more families receive the support they need while encouraging professionals to better understand the challenges faced by those affected.

For many in Pembrokeshire, the honour will be a source of pride as one of the county’s own receives national recognition for helping vulnerable families across the UK.

 

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