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Are the traditional parties in Wales underestimating Reform UK?

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By-election wins, surging polls and a reshaped Senedd system fuel Reform’s rapid rise

REFORM UK is no longer a fringe force in Welsh politics. With polling surges, a local by-election victory, and a favourable new voting system set to reshape the Senedd in 2026, the party is rapidly gaining traction—and some believe traditional parties are failing to grasp the scale of its momentum.

On the rise: Reform in Wales

A May 2025 YouGov/ITV Wales poll placed Reform UK second in Wales with 25% of the projected vote—just behind Plaid Cymru on 30%, and well ahead of Labour on 18%. That number is a stark decline: Labour won a 36% regional vote in 2021, making its current standing half of its previous share.

Disillusionment among Labour voters is evident. Only 40% of those who backed Labour in the 2024 UK general election currently intend to do so for the next Senedd election, with substantial numbers shifting to Plaid Cymru (24%), Liberal Democrats (8%), Reform UK (5%), and Greens (4%).

Local Shifts and Breakthroughs

Michelle Beer has been elected as Carmarthenshire’s first Reform councillor (Image: Reform)

On May 29, Reform achieved a breakthrough when Michelle Beer won the Lliedi ward by-election in Llanelli—becoming the party’s first elected councillor in Carmarthenshire. In a ward long seen as Labour territory, the win signalled a dramatic shift.

Reform volunteers preparing election materials in Carmarthenshire (Image: Facebook)

That momentum continued days earlier in Pembrokeshire, when Scott Thorley, a former Reform candidate, was co-opted onto Haverfordwest Town Council. His appointment ignited local opposition from campaigners concerned about Reform’s stance on the Anti-racist Wales Action Plan (AWAP).

The AWAP Dispute and Political Fallout

Scott Thorley’s co-option onto Haverfordwest Town Council has sparked a petition (Image: Supplied)

Reform UK has openly opposed the AWAP, criticising its focus on identity-based policies, such as increased grants for ethnic minority student teachers and cultural accommodation in public spaces. Critics say these measures undermine meritocracy and divide communities.

After Thorley’s co-option, political graffiti at Withybush Retail Park—featuring slogans like “VOTE REFORM” and “GOD SAVE US”—only intensified debate. Thorley swiftly condemned the graffiti, calling it “vandalism, plain and simple,” and defended the party’s intentions.

“As I have been invited to help on the anti‑racist action plan … I’m really confused by their comments. … Politics is about talking and helping people. … stop acting like stroppy teenagers.”
— Scott Thorley, Town Councillor, speaking to The Pembrokeshire Herald

Leadership turbulence and image strategy
Reform has also faced internal turbulence. Chairman Zia Yusuf, a practising Muslim, resigned on June 5, citing exhaustion and policy disagreements—particularly over a proposed burka ban—but reversed that decision just two days later. He returned to lead a new strategy unit focused on governance, fundraising, and outreach. His continued presence is seen as key to diversifying Reform’s image and countering claims of intolerance.

Farage, culture wars, and language policy

Nigel Farage: Wants to scrap Welsh Language targets and identity-based policymaking

At the helm, Nigel Farage has declared Wales a top priority, urging voters to back ‘real change’. He promised to scrap policies such as the 20mph default speed limit, the “Nation of Sanctuary” scheme, and the Welsh Government’s goal of one million Welsh speakers by 2050—labelled by Reform as cultural overreach.

While Farage offered limited detail on his opposition to the Welsh-language target, his position aligns with a broader opposition to identity-based policymaking.

Even Plaid warns: “Reform could win”

The growing momentum behind Reform UK has not gone unnoticed by its political opponents. Speaking at the party’s Spring conference in Llandudno, Plaid Cymru’s Westminster leader Liz Saville Roberts warned party members that Reform could become the largest party in the Senedd if they are not taken seriously.

“If we—Plaid Cymru—do not provide solutions to Labour’s failings, there is something worse waiting in the wings to take their place,” she said.

“If we do not take this threat seriously, they could become the biggest party in the Senedd—our national parliament. If that happens, it would be a disaster for Wales. This must galvanise us.”

Saville Roberts accused Reform of thriving on division and warned that the party would seek to privatise the NHS, strip away workers’ rights, and undermine Welsh identity and the language.

Pushback from Welsh leaders

Welsh Labour’s First Minister Mark Drakeford condemned the proposal to remove the language goal, asserting that the Welsh language “belongs to us all” and should be defended from external political interference. Plaid Cymru MS Llŷr Gruffydd dismissed Farage’s claims as “empty soundbites” and accused him of “railing against Welsh culture and identity” to advance his own agenda.

Labour’s collapse in its historical heartlands is resonating at the grassroots. The Barn Cymru poll confirms their support is now the lowest since devolution began, under 20%. Meanwhile, local expressions of discontent are growing, with public services—especially in rural and post-industrial areas—seen as deteriorating, boosting calls for change.

A once-unshakeable Labour dominance is cracking. With Plaid Cymru and Reform UK capitalising on voter fatigue, policy stumbles, and identity politics backlash, Wales is entering a new era of volatility. As the Senedd moves to proportional representation, the question isn’t whether Reform will take seats, but whether Labour has already ceded too much ground.

 

Charity

Vincent Davies raises £13,682 for air ambulance charity

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Independent Haverfordwest store backs lifesaving crews with year of community fundraising

A WEST WALES department store has raised more than thirteen thousand pounds for a lifesaving emergency service after a packed year of community fundraising.

Staff at Vincent Davies Department Store collected £13,682 for the Wales Air Ambulance Charity, after voting the organisation their Charity of the Year for 2025.

The independent retailer organised events throughout the year, including an Easter bingo, bake sales, quizzes, raffles, staff sales, Christmas jumper days and a festive wreath-making workshop. Charity jam jars placed in Café Vincent also helped gather steady donations from customers.

One of the most popular attractions was the store’s charity singing penguin trio, which drew smiles from shoppers of all ages and boosted collections.

Sarah John, Joint Managing Director at Vincent Davies, said: “Raising £13,682 for the Wales Air Ambulance Charity is something we are extremely proud of at Vincent Davies Department Store. As a director, it’s wonderful to see our community come together to support a charity that makes such a lifesaving difference.”

The air ambulance is consultant-led, delivering hospital-level treatment directly at the scene of serious incidents and, when needed, transferring patients straight to the most appropriate specialist hospital.

Working in partnership with the NHS through the Emergency Medical Retrieval and Transfer Service, crews can provide advanced critical care including anaesthesia, blood transfusions and even minor surgical procedures before reaching hospital.

Operating across the whole of Wales, its teams travel the length and breadth of the country by helicopter and rapid response vehicle to reach patients quickly in both rural and urban areas.

This is not the first time the Haverfordwest store has backed the cause. In 2016, staff previously raised £5,831 when the charity was also chosen as their beneficiary.

Mike May, the charity’s West Wales Regional Fundraising Manager, said: “We are so grateful to Vincent Davies Department Store for raising an incredible amount for our charity. Throughout the year they put on a variety of different events and what a successful fundraising year it was.

“The charity needs to raise £13 million every year to keep our helicopters in the air and our rapid response vehicles on the road. By raising £13,682, the staff and customers have played an important part in saving lives across Wales.”

The store says it will announce its Charity of the Year for 2026 in the coming weeks.

 

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Crime

Police assess complaints over Mandelson–Epstein links

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Met says allegations will be reviewed to see if criminal threshold is met following release of US court files

SCOTLAND YARD is reviewing a series of complaints alleging possible misconduct in public office after fresh claims emerged linking former UK ambassador Peter Mandelson to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

The Metropolitan Police Service confirmed it has received “a number of reports” following the publication of millions of pages of material by the United States Department of Justice, and will now decide whether any alleged conduct reaches the level required for a criminal investigation.

Commander Ella Marriott said the force would assess each report individually, stressing that a review does not automatically lead to formal proceedings.

The documents, widely referred to as the “Epstein files”, appear to show Mandelson corresponding with Epstein while serving as business secretary during the government of Gordon Brown at the height of the global financial crisis.

According to reports, Epstein was allegedly given insight into internal policy discussions, including proposals around banker bonus taxes in 2009 and details of a eurozone bailout package shortly before it was announced publicly.

Payments questioned

Bank records cited in the US disclosure reportedly show payments totalling 75,000 US dollars made to Mandelson between 2003 and 2004. It is also claimed Epstein paid for an osteopathy course for Mandelson’s husband.

Mandelson has denied any wrongdoing and said he has “no record or recollection” of the alleged transfers.

On Sunday he resigned his membership of the Labour Party, saying he did not want his continued association to cause further difficulty for the party.

In interviews, he dismissed suggestions that Epstein influenced his decisions as a minister and said nothing in the released files pointed to criminality or misconduct on his part.

Pressure mounts

The political fallout has intensified, with Downing Street confirming Keir Starmer has asked Cabinet Secretary Chris Wormald to carry out an urgent review into Mandelson’s historic contacts with Epstein while in office.

Brown has also called for an examination of whether any confidential or market-sensitive information was improperly shared during the financial crisis.

The case is the latest in a series of controversies linked to Epstein’s long-standing relationships with powerful figures on both sides of the Atlantic.

Police emphasised that no charges have been brought and that Mandelson is not currently under criminal investigation, but said the complaints process would be handled “thoroughly and impartially”.

 

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Community

Councillor meets chief constable to address Monkton and Pembroke concerns

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COUNTY COUNCILLOR Jonathan Grimes has met with the new Chief Constable of Dyfed-Powys Police to discuss crime, antisocial behaviour and wider community issues affecting residents in Pembroke and Monkton.

Cllr Grimes, who represents Pembroke St Mary South and Monkton, said the meeting followed his invitation for senior police leaders to visit the area and hear first-hand about local concerns.

The Chief Constable, Ifan Charles, attended alongside officers from the Pembroke Neighbourhood Policing and Protection Team, meeting the councillor in Monkton for what were described as open and constructive talks.

As part of the visit, they also spoke with Monkton Priory Community Primary School headteacher Dylan Lawrence and Danny Nash from Pembrokeshire County Council Housing Services to gather views from education and housing professionals.

Discussions covered a range of issues raised by residents, including domestic abuse, drug and alcohol misuse, antisocial behaviour and environmental concerns such as littering, dog fouling and dangerous or inconsiderate driving.

Cllr Grimes acknowledged recent police successes, particularly in tackling drug-related activity, but said enforcement alone would not solve the area’s challenges.

He said closer cooperation between the police, council services, schools and the wider community would be needed to deliver longer-term improvements.

The councillor added that he plans to encourage residents to form a local community group in the coming weeks, aimed at developing practical solutions and strengthening partnership working across the area.

 

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