News
Polling expert John Curtice warns Labour not to focus only on Reform
Party is losing more voters to Liberal Democrats and Greens than to Reform, with warnings echoed in Welsh battlegrounds
LABOUR has been told at its annual conference that it faces danger on several fronts, not just from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK – and the warning has clear echoes in Wales.
Sir John Curtice, Britain’s best-known polling expert and a regular on election night broadcasts, told a fringe meeting that Labour is losing more support to the Liberal Democrats and Greens than to Reform. He said that unless Sir Keir Starmer’s government shows progress on the NHS and the economy, the party could repeat the Conservatives’ mistakes.
Welsh battlegrounds
The warning has particular relevance in Wales, where Reform has already established a foothold in communities frustrated with the pace of change. In Pembrokeshire, the party has targeted votes in Milford Haven, Pembroke Dock and Tenby, while the Liberal Democrats remain competitive in parts of mid-Wales, and the Greens have steadily grown their share in university towns like Aberystwyth.
Curtice told Labour members: “It is a mistake to believe Reform is the only challenge. Collectively, you are losing more votes to the Liberal Democrats and the Greens – and that could be decisive.”
Voters want delivery
Curtice also warned that focusing too heavily on immigration risked repeating Tory errors. He said voters in Wales and across the UK were far more concerned with NHS waiting times, cost-of-living pressures and job security. Even in seats where Reform is strong, he argued, Labour could still lose if smaller parties drained its support.
One year into government, Curtice said Labour had suffered “the worst ever collapse in support for a newly elected government”, adding that the public remained “deeply unhappy”.
Starmer under pressure
He questioned whether Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer had yet defined himself in the public mind. While Starmer had tried to present himself as a “friendly plumber” fixing broken systems, Curtice said voters wanted a leader with a bold vision.
“The mystery of Keir Starmer remains,” he said. “People still don’t know what he stands for.”
Burnham in the wings
Curtice also pointed to polling showing Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, as significantly more popular with Labour’s 2024 voters than the Prime Minister himself. Burnham’s favourability rating stands at +37%, compared with Starmer’s +13%.
What it means for Wales
For Labour in Wales, the warning is stark. With Reform pushing hard in coastal communities, Liberal Democrats clinging on in rural mid-Wales, and the Greens building support among younger voters, Labour cannot assume disaffected electors will automatically stay loyal.
In Pembrokeshire, where health services, transport links and the cost of living dominate local concerns, Curtice’s message was clear: if Labour cannot deliver on bread-and-butter issues, it risks being outflanked not just by Nigel Farage, but by parties many assumed posed little threat.
News
Motorcyclist injured in Johnston crash after overtaking lorry
Rider treated by paramedics following collision with van pulling out from junction
A MOTORCYCLIST was treated by paramedics after a collision with a van in Johnston on Monday morning (Mar 16).
The crash happened shortly after 9.15am as the rider was overtaking a lorry through slow-moving traffic on the main road. It is understood the lorry blocked the rider’s view of a van pulling out from a junction near KO Carpets.
Police units attended promptly to assist at the scene.
The motorcyclist is not believed to have been seriously injured.
The van suffered slight damage, including a broken wing mirror.
The road was not closed, police said.
Health
Plaid Cymru to hold public meeting over Withybush hospital surgery cuts
Candidates say residents must be heard after emergency services decision
PLAID CYMRU candidates for the Ceredigion Penfro constituency will host a public meeting in Pembrokeshire to discuss concerns over the future of services at Withybush Hospital.
The event will take place at 6:30pm on Monday (Mar 31) at Letterston Village Hall, giving residents the opportunity to share their experiences and concerns following Hywel Dda University Health Board’s decision last month to remove emergency general surgery from the hospital.
Campaigners say the move will force many patients requiring urgent treatment to travel further for care, raising fears about the potential impact on patient safety in rural west Wales.
Elin Jones, Plaid Cymru lead candidate for Ceredigion Penfro, said: “Withybush is such an important hospital for the community and residents of Pembrokeshire. The decision to remove its emergency general surgery will severely weaken the life-saving capacity of this hospital.
“Plaid Cymru has long championed small rural hospitals such as Bronglais and Withybush. We need to ensure these hospitals remain strong local services within our communities. Withybush should have the basic life-saving and everyday treatment services it needs to function as a full general hospital.”
Kerry Ferguson, Plaid Cymru candidate for Pembrokeshire within the Ceredigion Penfro constituency, said the recent success of a public petition had demonstrated the strength of local feeling.
“It’s great to see that the online petition calling for Welsh Government intervention to restore emergency surgery and essential services at Withybush has reached its target, meaning it will now be debated in the Senedd,” she said.
“We are extremely disappointed by the Health Board’s decision to remove emergency general surgery at Withybush. Increased journey times for anyone in need of urgent medical treatment will put lives at risk. We need government intervention now to overturn this decision.”
Residents across Pembrokeshire have continued to raise concerns about the future of services at the hospital, which has long been a focal point in debates about healthcare provision in rural west Wales.
Climate
Research vessel begins mission to study seabed carbon in Irish Sea
Bangor University scientists join £2.1m project investigating the impact of bottom trawling on carbon stored beneath the seabed
A STATE OF THE ART research vessel has set sail from Liverpool to investigate how bottom trawling may affect carbon stored in the seabed of the Irish Sea.
The scientific expedition is part of a £2.1 million research project funded by the Natural Environment Research Council and led by Professor Jan Geert Hiddink of Bangor University.
A team of eighteen scientists has embarked on the RRS Discovery, one of the world’s most advanced research vessels, for a three-and-a-half-week voyage studying the impact of fishing activity on carbon held in seabed sediments.
Before the ship departed, a number of local dignitaries were invited aboard for a tour of the vessel, including Liverpool City Region Mayor Steve Rotheram and National Oceanography Centre Operations Director Natalie Campbell.
Professor Jan Geert Hiddink, from Bangor University’s School of Ocean Sciences, said bottom-trawl fishing is both vital to global food supply and a major disturbance to seabed environments.
“Bottom-trawl fishing provides around a quarter of global seafood but is also the most extensive physical disturbance caused by human activities to stocks of carbon locked in seabed sediments,” he said.
“This is important because recent evidence suggests that disturbing the seabed could lead to the release of significant amounts of greenhouse gases from the seabed into the atmosphere.
“There are still major uncertainties about how this disturbance affects carbon stored beneath the seabed. As a result, the impact of these disturbances is largely unquantified and currently unregulated.
“The aim of this project is to gain a much clearer understanding of what is happening so that scientists, policymakers and regulators can make informed decisions in the future.”
Seven research organisations are collaborating on the project: Bangor University, the Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (CEFAS), Heriot-Watt University, the University of Leeds, Plymouth Marine Laboratory, the University of St Andrews, and Imperial College London.
Caption: Scientists prepare to begin their research aboard the RRS Discovery, one of the world’s most advanced research vessels.
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