Latest survey suggests Labour could be pushed into third place as Plaid and Reform battle for top spot

THE FIRST MINISTER Eluned Morgan could lose her Senedd seat at the upcoming election, according to a major new opinion poll which signals a dramatic shift in Welsh politics.

The YouGov poll for ITV Cymru Wales, carried out in partnership with Cardiff University, suggests Welsh Labour is facing a significant downturn in support, with projections indicating the party could fail to win in several constituencies – including Morgan’s own seat of Ceredigion Preseli.

Plaid Cymru is forecast to emerge as the largest party, despite a slight dip in vote share to 33%. The party is projected to secure 43 seats – just short of an outright majority – putting leader Rhun ap Iorwerth in a strong position to attempt forming the next Welsh Government.

Reform UK has surged to 27% in the poll, closing the gap on Plaid and potentially securing around 30 seats in the Senedd. The figures underline a rapidly shifting political landscape, with Reform now firmly in contention as a major force.

Labour, meanwhile, is projected to win just 12 seats on 13% of the vote, placing it behind both Plaid and Reform. The results suggest the party may not return any Members of the Senedd in four constituencies.

Race for power tightening

Political analysts say the latest figures point to a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.

Dr Jac Larner of Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre said the poll shows a narrowing contest for the largest party, but added that Plaid remains better positioned to form a government due to wider coalition options.

He also noted that Labour’s support appears to have stabilised slightly since earlier in the year, following a difficult period, although the party remains well behind its traditional standing.

The Greens continue to perform strongly, polling at 12%, which could translate into around ten seats. Their rise does not appear to be eating into Plaid Cymru’s support, suggesting they are attracting a different group of voters.

Tories face wipeout threat

The poll paints a bleak picture for the Conservatives, who are projected to secure just one seat with around 7% of the vote. The Liberal Democrats, polling at 5%, are at risk of losing representation in the Senedd altogether.

Experts warn that the new electoral system could amplify small changes in vote share, leading to disproportionate losses for smaller parties.

Major change expected

With just weeks to go until polling day, the findings point towards a potentially historic reshaping of the Senedd.

The Herald understands that parties across Wales are now intensifying campaign efforts as the prospect of a change in government becomes increasingly likely.

A large number of new Members of the Senedd are expected to be elected, with the balance of power shifting away from traditional parties and towards a more fragmented political landscape.

A CALL for works to Tenby’s listed building sailing club to improve energy efficiency for the community organisation has been given the go-ahead.

In an application to Pembrokeshire Coast National Park, Harrison Richards of Tenby Sailing Club sought permission for replacing 24 timber windows at the Grade-II-listed Tenby Sailing Club, Penniless Cove Hill, with new Accoya timber double-glazed units.

The application added: “An energy survey conducted by Dragon Energy Consultants highlighted the existing single glazing and rotten window frames as a significant contributor to the club’s energy consumption.

“Tenby Sailing Club is a community organisation which seeks to organise activities year-round but faces significant energy costs being housed in a historic building. The current windows are beyond repair, with cracked glazing, decay, water ingress, and poor energy efficiency.

“The two windows at balcony level are not included, as they were previously replaced and remain in good condition. All new units will replicate the existing profiles, dimensions, glazing patterns, and overall appearance, ensuring no visual change to the building’s character.

“The neighbouring three-storey harbour stores occupied by Tenby Sea Cadets have previously replaced the building’s windows with double glazing. This like-for-like replacement in appearance will improve durability, weather resistance, and thermal performance while preserving the special architectural and historic interest of the listed building.”

An officer report recommending approval said: “The Sailing Club was built as a warehouse c. 1825, abutting the C17 sluice. Originally wine stores, it was later used by the local fishermen for stores and is now the home to Tenby Sailing Club, established in 1936.”

It said no adverse comments to the proposals had been received.

It added: “The proposal is to replace the majority (24 total) of windows in painted timber, double-glazed with face-mounted glazing bars of traditional scale and profile. Whilst a modern practice of glazing, the proposal involves no loss of historic fabric, provides an obvious visual improvement and addresses concerns as to heating costs.”

It finished: “The scheme is considered to be in keeping with the character of the listed building, and its setting in terms of design and form. As such, the application can be supported subject to conditions.”

The application was conditionally approved by planners.

Laura Anne Jones says net zero focus is driving up bills and harming energy security

A REFORM UK Senedd Member has called for a major shift in Wales’ energy strategy, urging ministers to prioritise nuclear power during a heated exchange in the Senedd.

Laura Anne Jones, Regional Member for South Wales East, used the final First Minister’s Questions of the current term to challenge the Welsh Government’s approach, warning that current policies risk increasing costs for households and businesses.

She told the chamber that Wales needs energy which is “affordable, reliable and secure for the long term,” adding that an overemphasis on net zero targets was having unintended consequences.

Ms Jones said: “For too long, Welsh energy policy has been driven by ideological Net Zero targets imposed without regard to cost, reliability, rural impact, or democratic consent.”

Calling for a change in direction, she argued that nuclear power should play a central role in the country’s future energy mix.

“A Reform Welsh Government will act as an active enabler of nuclear development, not a passive bystander or a blocker,” she said. “We will work constructively with Westminster and fast-track infrastructure.”

She also criticised opposition to nuclear projects, claiming it could delay developments seen as vital to national energy security.

“We will not allow ideological opposition by Plaid to frustrate or halt nationally important nuclear developments,” she added, warning that current policies were “bringing our Welsh economy to its knees.”

Energy debate intensifies

The comments come amid growing political debate over how Wales balances its net zero commitments with concerns over energy costs and security.

The Welsh Government has consistently defended its strategy, arguing that investment in renewable energy and decarbonisation is essential to tackle climate change while creating long-term economic opportunities.

Ministers have also pointed to the UK Government’s role in nuclear policy, with major projects and funding decisions largely reserved to Westminster.

However, critics argue that rising energy prices and global instability are exposing weaknesses in current approaches, with calls for a broader mix of energy sources gaining traction.

Ms Jones said she would continue to press for what she described as a “common sense” approach, focused on lowering bills, supporting jobs and ensuring long-term energy security for Wales.