News
OBR leak, tax freeze and political chaos as Reeves prepares for ‘tight’ Budget
The Herald looks at what’s in the Budget for Wales
LIFE in Wales could be shaped for years by today’s UK Budget after the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) accidentally published its full economic forecasts online, confirming a prolonged income tax freeze, weak growth and rising debt before the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, even reached the despatch box.
The leak — the most serious fiscal breach in recent memory — appeared briefly on the OBR website early this morning. It was removed within minutes, but not before journalists downloaded the full 100-page outlook.
The fallout has stretched deep into Westminster, with senior ministers now confirming that the “riot act” has been read to those suspected of leaking details of the Budget to the media.
Income tax thresholds frozen until 2030–31
The OBR documents confirm that all income tax thresholds will remain frozen for another three years, extending the freeze to 2030–31.
This long-term fiscal drag means more people paying higher taxes without any formal rise in tax rates.
For Wales — where wages lag behind the UK average — the impact will be felt quickly:
- More Welsh workers pushed into basic and higher-rate bands
- Inflation-linked pay rises partially wiped out
- Household budgets squeezed at a time of rising rents, food prices and energy bills
The OBR estimates the policy will raise £8.3bn in 2029–30 alone.
Income tax rate rise scrapped after internal backlash
One of the most dramatic overnight developments was confirmation that a proposal to raise income tax rates for the first time in 50 years has been dropped.
The Financial Times reported that the measure was under consideration until late in the process but abandoned after strong internal resistance and fears of breaking Labour’s manifesto commitments.
This followed a highly unusual press conference from Rachel Reeves yesterday, in which she warned that sticking to Labour’s spending promises would be impossible without either tax rises or “deep cuts” to investment.
Westminster row: ‘Riot act’ read to MPs and Government insiders
The Budget has been engulfed by political turmoil.
Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister, Darren Jones, confirmed this morning that ministers and parliamentarians have been reprimanded over leaks, telling LBC:
“There have been some leaks which are unacceptable… We’ve had to read the riot act to people in Government.”
Pressed on whether MPs were involved, he replied:
“I think so.”
The comments underline the scale of internal frustration as revelations continue to emerge ahead of the Chancellor’s speech.
Record-high tax burden confirmed
The leaked OBR forecasts verify that the overall UK tax burden will reach a post-war high by the end of the decade.
Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat leader, accused the Government of “raising taxes by stealth”.
For Welsh businesses — particularly hospitality firms already battling rising wage bills, energy costs and weaker footfall — the measures will intensify pressure. Some small breweries and pubs have already warned they are “on the edge”.
Weak growth and rising debt: tight years ahead for Wales
According to the leak, UK GDP will average just 1.5% growth over the forecast period, while public debt rises from 95% to 96% of GDP by 2030.
Because Welsh Government funding is tied to UK spending through the Barnett formula, this means:
No major uplift for NHS Wales
Council budgets in Pembrokeshire, Ceredigion and Carmarthenshire remain under strain
School funding pressures continue
Delays expected for transport and road upgrades
Rural support programmes remain uncertain
Public services already struggling with inflation and backlogs face further tightening.
Borrowing reduction relies on stealth taxes
The leak shows borrowing falling from 4.5% of GDP in 2025–26 to 1.9% by 2030–31, but the improvement is almost entirely due to the extended tax threshold freeze, not stronger economic growth.
What Reeves is expected to announce today
Although full details will not be confirmed until this afternoon, the Chancellor and Prime Minister have signalled several measures:
- A UK-wide rail fare freeze
- Minimum wage increases from April
- Support for childcare expansion
- Progress toward free school breakfasts
But Welsh hospitality operators warned this morning that wage hikes could push some businesses into closure, with more than 100 breweries shutting down in the past year.
What it all means for Wales
Based on the OBR leak and overnight political briefing, Wales should prepare for:
- Higher effective taxes for millions of workers
- No major improvement in Welsh Government spending power
- Slow growth and weak job creation
- Tough choices on public services
- Ongoing pressure on councils, the NHS, rural communities and small businesses
Rachel Reeves will deliver her Budget in the Commons later today — but the leaks, warnings and political chaos already paint a clear picture: a tight Budget, rising taxes by default, and little immediate relief for Wales.
News
Salmon face extinction in Welsh rivers by 2030, report warns
Environment watchdog says Wales is at a “critical tipping point” as nature declines faster than it can recover
SALMON could disappear from some Welsh rivers within the next five years, according to a stark new assessment of the nation’s environment.
The warning comes in the State of Natural Resources Report 2025, published by Natural Resources Wales (NRW), which concludes that Wales is degrading its natural resources more quickly than they can be replenished.
NRW says nearly one in five species in Wales is now at risk of extinction, with freshwater ecosystems among the most pressured. Atlantic salmon, already in long-term decline, are highlighted as being particularly vulnerable, with some river systems potentially losing the species altogether by 2030 if current trends continue.
The report describes the environment as being under “sustained and intensifying pressure”, driven by the combined effects of climate change, pollution, habitat loss and unsustainable land use. It also states that Wales is consuming more than its fair share of global natural resources, placing further strain on already fragile ecosystems.
One of the most concerning findings is that there has been no overall improvement in the resilience of Wales’ freshwater environments since 2020. Only around 40 per cent of water bodies are currently achieving what is classified as “good status”, while fish populations and river habitats continue to deteriorate.
Speaking after the report’s publication, NRW chair Neil Sachdev said restoring nature could not be left to environmental bodies alone.
“Our report shows that restoring nature is a whole-society challenge,” he said. “It demands collective ownership across public bodies, businesses, communities and citizens.
“This is not just a warning about our future; it is a reckoning with our present. If we act now, with urgency and shared ownership, Wales can lead not just in ambition, but by delivering the scale of transformation the nation needs.”
The report argues that avoiding a deepening environmental and climate crisis will require fundamental changes to how people live, including how homes are heated, how food is produced and consumed, how people travel, and how land is managed.
Despite the bleak assessment, NRW notes that some progress has been made since its previous major report six years ago. Peatland restoration projects, tighter air-quality legislation, the Sustainable Farming Scheme and the Wales Metal Mines Programme are cited as targeted interventions beginning to address long-standing problems.
Commenting on the findings, Derek Walker, the Future Generations Commissioner for Wales, warned that environmental failure would hit the poorest communities hardest.
“Nature is one of our most powerful allies – preventing flooding, reducing pollution and protecting our health,” he said. “Without urgent, coordinated action to halt and reverse this decline, we are quite literally putting lives at risk unnecessarily.”
He pointed to nature-based solutions already being used in Wales, from urban green roofs to seagrass restoration, and said every part of the public sector needed to play a role in unlocking their potential.
Responding on behalf of the Welsh Government, Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies said the report would play a key role in shaping future policy.
“Protecting and enhancing nature is essential for people today and for future generations,” he said. “Wales has made real progress, but we need to go further again.
“This report sets out how we can work together to restore nature, tackle pollution and build resilience to climate change. The Welsh Government will lead this work alongside partners across the public sector, business and communities to turn evidence into meaningful action.”
For rivers across West Wales, including those once famed for their salmon runs, the report makes clear that time is now a critical factor — with decisive action needed if iconic species are to be saved from disappearing altogether.
Health
‘Parking fine or miss my appointment’ say patients pressure mounts at hospitals
From sleeping on chairs to parking fines, patients say everyday barriers are pushing the NHS to breaking point
PATIENTS across West Wales are describing a health service under such strain that some say they now expect to be penalised simply for trying to access care.
At Glangwili Hospital, stories of patients sleeping on chairs for days due to a lack of beds have been accompanied by growing frustration over issues that begin long before anyone reaches a ward — including parking, access, and the sheer difficulty of getting through the hospital doors.
One disabled patient said they had resigned themselves to receiving a £25 parking fine in order to attend hospital appointments.
“I now accept I will be fined,” they said. “Parking is impossible, but it’s that or miss my appointment. I am too disabled to park miles away and the disabled spaces are always full.”
Others have described spending days in A&E or side rooms, unable to lie down, while waiting for a bed to become available. One patient admitted on New Year’s Day with pneumonia said they slept in a chair for four nights without a pillow or blanket before being moved, only to later discover they also had flu and should have been isolated sooner.
Across social media and in correspondence with the Herald, patients and families repeatedly stress that frontline NHS staff are not to blame — instead pointing to a system that they say is buckling under years of structural strain.
Glangwili, the largest hospital managed by Hywel Dda University Health Board, serves Carmarthenshire and is home to the county’s only accident and emergency department following the closure of A&E at Prince Philip Hospital. That closure, along with reductions in services elsewhere, is frequently cited by patients as a turning point.
Several people said the loss of local A&E and cottage hospitals has forced more patients into already stretched units, increasing ambulance reliance and long-distance travel — particularly difficult in a largely rural region.
Further west, uncertainty over services at Withybush Hospital continues to fuel anxiety, especially given the scale of reinforced autoclaved aerated concrete (RAAC) identified across the site.
Hywel Dda has acknowledged that almost 90% of Withybush is affected by RAAC, while Glangwili itself is the oldest acute hospital in Wales. The health board says more than £50 million has been spent on the two hospitals in recent years, largely to address critical safety and infrastructure risks rather than expand capacity.
Patients, however, question where that money is felt on the ground.
Some have criticised NHS procurement and management structures, while others point to social care as the missing piece. Repeated comments highlight the lack of care packages and closed care homes, which many believe are leaving medically fit patients unable to be discharged — effectively blocking beds and creating bottlenecks throughout the system.
“There’s nowhere for people to go,” one reader said. “Until social care is sorted, nothing will change.”
Concerns have also been raised about staff morale, with some alleging bullying cultures and burnout contributing to recruitment and retention problems. Again, blame is consistently directed upward rather than at nurses, doctors or porters.
Behind it all looms the long-promised new ‘super hospital’ for Carmarthenshire — first discussed in 2006 and formally launched in 2018. Eight years on, construction has yet to begin, and public confidence in the project is fading.
While Hywel Dda and the Welsh Government insist improvements are under way — including additional funding to expand capacity at Glangwili and improvements to patient experience — many patients say their reality feels far removed from official assurances.
For those attending appointments, sleeping in chairs, or weighing up a parking fine against missing care, the crisis is no longer abstract.
“It’s not politics,” one patient said. “It’s whether you get treated — and how.”
Crime
Two arrested after high-value shoplifting incident in Kilgetty
TWO men have been arrested on suspicion of shoplifting following a rapid police response to a reported high-value theft at a supermarket in Kilgetty.
Dyfed-Powys Police said officers were called to the Co-op store at around 3.35pm on Wednesday (Jan 28), after a report that a large quantity of alcohol and other items had been stolen.
Using information provided by the caller, Roads Policing Unit officers worked closely with control room staff to identify a vehicle believed to be involved. Several patrol cars were deployed, and the vehicle was located a short time later travelling east.
Police said the safety of all those involved was treated as a priority, with specialist Tactical Pursuit and Containment (TPAC) advice obtained while officers maintained constant observation of the vehicle.
The car was brought to a safe stop on a back road approaching Hendy, involving three Roads Policing Unit vehicles. No injuries or damage were reported.
Following roadside checks, two men — aged 67 and 46 — were arrested on suspicion of theft from a shop.
Both remain in police custody while enquiries continue.
Police said the swift response helped prevent further offending and demonstrated the effectiveness of specialist roads policing officers acting on real-time intelligence.
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