News

OBR leak, tax freeze and political chaos as Reeves prepares for ‘tight’ Budget

Published

4 months ago

November 26, 2025

The Herald looks at what’s in the Budget for Wales

LIFE in Wales could be shaped for years by today’s UK Budget after the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) accidentally published its full economic forecasts online, confirming a prolonged income tax freeze, weak growth and rising debt before the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, even reached the despatch box.

The leak — the most serious fiscal breach in recent memory — appeared briefly on the OBR website early this morning. It was removed within minutes, but not before journalists downloaded the full 100-page outlook.

The fallout has stretched deep into Westminster, with senior ministers now confirming that the “riot act” has been read to those suspected of leaking details of the Budget to the media.

Income tax thresholds frozen until 2030–31

The OBR documents confirm that all income tax thresholds will remain frozen for another three years, extending the freeze to 2030–31.

This long-term fiscal drag means more people paying higher taxes without any formal rise in tax rates.

For Wales — where wages lag behind the UK average — the impact will be felt quickly:

More Welsh workers pushed into basic and higher-rate bands
Inflation-linked pay rises partially wiped out
Household budgets squeezed at a time of rising rents, food prices and energy bills

The OBR estimates the policy will raise £8.3bn in 2029–30 alone.

Income tax rate rise scrapped after internal backlash

One of the most dramatic overnight developments was confirmation that a proposal to raise income tax rates for the first time in 50 years has been dropped.

The Financial Times reported that the measure was under consideration until late in the process but abandoned after strong internal resistance and fears of breaking Labour’s manifesto commitments.

This followed a highly unusual press conference from Rachel Reeves yesterday, in which she warned that sticking to Labour’s spending promises would be impossible without either tax rises or “deep cuts” to investment.

Westminster row: ‘Riot act’ read to MPs and Government insiders

The Budget has been engulfed by political turmoil.

Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister, Darren Jones, confirmed this morning that ministers and parliamentarians have been reprimanded over leaks, telling LBC:

“There have been some leaks which are unacceptable… We’ve had to read the riot act to people in Government.”

Pressed on whether MPs were involved, he replied:

“I think so.”

The comments underline the scale of internal frustration as revelations continue to emerge ahead of the Chancellor’s speech.

Record-high tax burden confirmed

The leaked OBR forecasts verify that the overall UK tax burden will reach a post-war high by the end of the decade.
Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat leader, accused the Government of “raising taxes by stealth”.

For Welsh businesses — particularly hospitality firms already battling rising wage bills, energy costs and weaker footfall — the measures will intensify pressure. Some small breweries and pubs have already warned they are “on the edge”.

Weak growth and rising debt: tight years ahead for Wales

According to the leak, UK GDP will average just 1.5% growth over the forecast period, while public debt rises from 95% to 96% of GDP by 2030.

Because Welsh Government funding is tied to UK spending through the Barnett formula, this means:

No major uplift for NHS Wales

Council budgets in Pembrokeshire, Ceredigion and Carmarthenshire remain under strain

School funding pressures continue

Delays expected for transport and road upgrades

Rural support programmes remain uncertain

Public services already struggling with inflation and backlogs face further tightening.

Borrowing reduction relies on stealth taxes

The leak shows borrowing falling from 4.5% of GDP in 2025–26 to 1.9% by 2030–31, but the improvement is almost entirely due to the extended tax threshold freeze, not stronger economic growth.

What Reeves is expected to announce today

Although full details will not be confirmed until this afternoon, the Chancellor and Prime Minister have signalled several measures:

A UK-wide rail fare freeze
Minimum wage increases from April
Support for childcare expansion
Progress toward free school breakfasts

But Welsh hospitality operators warned this morning that wage hikes could push some businesses into closure, with more than 100 breweries shutting down in the past year.

What it all means for Wales

Based on the OBR leak and overnight political briefing, Wales should prepare for:

Higher effective taxes for millions of workers
No major improvement in Welsh Government spending power
Slow growth and weak job creation
Tough choices on public services
Ongoing pressure on councils, the NHS, rural communities and small businesses

Rachel Reeves will deliver her Budget in the Commons later today — but the leaks, warnings and political chaos already paint a clear picture: a tight Budget, rising taxes by default, and little immediate relief for Wales.

News

Scott Thorley elected as Pembrokeshire’s first Reform councillor

Published

1 hour ago

March 17, 2026

Tom Sinclair

REFORM UK candidate Scott Thorley has won the Hakin by-election after securing 179 votes.

The full result is as follows:

• Derrick Abbott (Independent) – 11
• Sam Booth (Wales Green Party) – 85
• Lee James Bridges (Independent) – 106
• Duncan Edwards (Independent) – 52
• Nicola Catherine Harteveld (Welsh Labour) – 27
• Brian Taylor (Welsh Conservative Party) – 144
• Scott Thorley (Reform UK) – 179
• Sam Warden (Welsh Liberal Democrats) – 57

A total of 661 votes were cast, with turnout at 32.7%, including 271 postal votes.

News

Senedd vote to ban greyhound racing hailed as ‘landmark moment’ by charities

Published

4 hours ago

March 17, 2026

Tom Sinclair

Welfare groups celebrate historic decision as pressure mounts for UK-wide ban

ANIMAL welfare charities have welcomed the Senedd’s decision to ban greyhound racing in Wales, describing the move as a “landmark moment” that will prevent the “needless suffering” of thousands of dogs.

The vote, passed on Tuesday (Mar 17), will see greyhound racing outlawed in Wales following a transition period, making it the first UK nation to take such action.

A coalition of leading charities, including Dogs Trust, Blue Cross, RSPCA Cymru, Hope Rescue, and Greyhound Rescue Wales, said the decision marked a major victory for animal welfare.

The group, known as the Cut the Chase coalition, has campaigned for years to end greyhound racing, citing concerns over injuries, deaths, and poor living conditions for dogs involved in the sport.

Owen Sharp, Chief Executive of Dogs Trust, said: “Today’s vote in Wales is a landmark moment for dog welfare and a huge step towards ending the needless suffering of greyhounds.”

“For too long, dogs have paid the price for this outdated form of entertainment, with injuries and deaths that are entirely preventable.”

Figures cited by campaigners suggest that since 2017, more than 4,000 greyhounds across the UK have died or been put to sleep due to racing, while over 35,000 injuries have been recorded.

Charities argue that racing greyhounds around oval tracks places significant strain on their bodies, often leading to serious or fatal injuries. Concerns have also been raised about conditions away from the track, including kennelling, transport, and long-term welfare.

Chris Burghes, Chief Executive of Blue Cross, said the legislation would finally bring an end to what he described as a “cruel so-called sport”.

He added: “The death of just one racing dog is one too many. We are ready to support the rehoming of retired greyhounds and ensure they receive the care they need.”

Hope Rescue, which led a public petition attracting more than 35,000 signatures, said the decision reflected strong public support for a ban.

Its Chief Executive, Vanessa Waddon, said: “We are proud that our campaign has helped secure this historic win. Wales has put animal welfare first.”

Greyhound Rescue Wales described the decision as “transformative”, with Chief Executive Claire James saying it would end a practice that had persisted despite years of campaigning for reform.

The RSPCA also welcomed the vote, with Chief Executive Jo Rowland stating that the level of injury and death linked to racing was “simply unacceptable”.

Attention will now turn to Scotland, where a similar vote is expected on Wednesday (Mar 18). Campaigners are also urging the UK Government to introduce a ban in England and Northern Ireland.

Charities say Wales’ decision could set a precedent for the rest of the UK, as pressure grows to phase out greyhound racing nationwide.

News

Senedd votes to ban Greyhound racing in Wales to protect animal welfare

Published

4 hours ago

March 17, 2026

Tom Sinclair

GREYHOUND racing will be banned in Wales after Senedd Members voted in favour of new legislation aimed at protecting the welfare of racing dogs.

The Bill introduces a phased transition period to allow the industry to wind down responsibly, strengthen rehoming arrangements for retired greyhounds, and give enforcement bodies and local authorities time to prepare for the change. The ban is expected to come into force between April 1, 2027 and April 1, 2030.

The legislation reflects a clear policy decision that the risks associated with greyhound racing – including injuries, fatalities and poor outcomes for dogs after their racing careers end – can no longer be justified. Despite efforts by parts of the industry to improve standards, harm to greyhounds has remained a persistent concern.

Huw Irranca-Davies, Deputy First Minister with responsibility for Climate Change and Rural Affairs, said: “Wales is a progressive nation, committed to ethical standards and forward-thinking legislation. This Bill strengthens our reputation as a leader on animal welfare and delivers the standards that the people of Wales rightly expect.”

The move follows significant public engagement, with thousands of people, campaigners and organisations contributing through petitions, consultations and personal testimony. Their input has played a central role in shaping the legislation.

Commenting on the news that the greyhound racing ban has been passed by the Senedd, Welsh Liberal Democrat Leader Jane Dodds MS, who has spearheaded the campaign, said “This is a massive victory for animal welfare, and I’m proud that the Welsh Liberal Democrats have helped deliver it.

“Today, Wales has made a clear statement about the kind of nation we want to be: compassionate, forward-looking, and willing to act when the evidence demands it.”