News

OBR leak, tax freeze and political chaos as Reeves prepares for ‘tight’ Budget

Published

5 months ago

November 26, 2025

The Herald looks at what’s in the Budget for Wales

LIFE in Wales could be shaped for years by today’s UK Budget after the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) accidentally published its full economic forecasts online, confirming a prolonged income tax freeze, weak growth and rising debt before the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, even reached the despatch box.

The leak — the most serious fiscal breach in recent memory — appeared briefly on the OBR website early this morning. It was removed within minutes, but not before journalists downloaded the full 100-page outlook.

The fallout has stretched deep into Westminster, with senior ministers now confirming that the “riot act” has been read to those suspected of leaking details of the Budget to the media.

Income tax thresholds frozen until 2030–31

The OBR documents confirm that all income tax thresholds will remain frozen for another three years, extending the freeze to 2030–31.

This long-term fiscal drag means more people paying higher taxes without any formal rise in tax rates.

For Wales — where wages lag behind the UK average — the impact will be felt quickly:

More Welsh workers pushed into basic and higher-rate bands
Inflation-linked pay rises partially wiped out
Household budgets squeezed at a time of rising rents, food prices and energy bills

The OBR estimates the policy will raise £8.3bn in 2029–30 alone.

Income tax rate rise scrapped after internal backlash

One of the most dramatic overnight developments was confirmation that a proposal to raise income tax rates for the first time in 50 years has been dropped.

The Financial Times reported that the measure was under consideration until late in the process but abandoned after strong internal resistance and fears of breaking Labour’s manifesto commitments.

This followed a highly unusual press conference from Rachel Reeves yesterday, in which she warned that sticking to Labour’s spending promises would be impossible without either tax rises or “deep cuts” to investment.

Westminster row: ‘Riot act’ read to MPs and Government insiders

The Budget has been engulfed by political turmoil.

Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister, Darren Jones, confirmed this morning that ministers and parliamentarians have been reprimanded over leaks, telling LBC:

“There have been some leaks which are unacceptable… We’ve had to read the riot act to people in Government.”

Pressed on whether MPs were involved, he replied:

“I think so.”

The comments underline the scale of internal frustration as revelations continue to emerge ahead of the Chancellor’s speech.

Record-high tax burden confirmed

The leaked OBR forecasts verify that the overall UK tax burden will reach a post-war high by the end of the decade.
Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat leader, accused the Government of “raising taxes by stealth”.

For Welsh businesses — particularly hospitality firms already battling rising wage bills, energy costs and weaker footfall — the measures will intensify pressure. Some small breweries and pubs have already warned they are “on the edge”.

Weak growth and rising debt: tight years ahead for Wales

According to the leak, UK GDP will average just 1.5% growth over the forecast period, while public debt rises from 95% to 96% of GDP by 2030.

Because Welsh Government funding is tied to UK spending through the Barnett formula, this means:

No major uplift for NHS Wales

Council budgets in Pembrokeshire, Ceredigion and Carmarthenshire remain under strain

School funding pressures continue

Delays expected for transport and road upgrades

Rural support programmes remain uncertain

Public services already struggling with inflation and backlogs face further tightening.

Borrowing reduction relies on stealth taxes

The leak shows borrowing falling from 4.5% of GDP in 2025–26 to 1.9% by 2030–31, but the improvement is almost entirely due to the extended tax threshold freeze, not stronger economic growth.

What Reeves is expected to announce today

Although full details will not be confirmed until this afternoon, the Chancellor and Prime Minister have signalled several measures:

A UK-wide rail fare freeze
Minimum wage increases from April
Support for childcare expansion
Progress toward free school breakfasts

But Welsh hospitality operators warned this morning that wage hikes could push some businesses into closure, with more than 100 breweries shutting down in the past year.

What it all means for Wales

Based on the OBR leak and overnight political briefing, Wales should prepare for:

Higher effective taxes for millions of workers
No major improvement in Welsh Government spending power
Slow growth and weak job creation
Tough choices on public services
Ongoing pressure on councils, the NHS, rural communities and small businesses

Rachel Reeves will deliver her Budget in the Commons later today — but the leaks, warnings and political chaos already paint a clear picture: a tight Budget, rising taxes by default, and little immediate relief for Wales.

News

Lifeboat launched after pleasure boat suffers engine failure off Tenby

Published

9 hours ago

May 2, 2026

Tom Sinclair

A 21ft PLEASURE boat was towed to safety after suffering engine failure between Lydstep and Giltar.

TENBY’S all-weather lifeboat was requested to launch shortly after 10:00am on Friday (May 1), after the occupants of the vessel reported that they had lost engine power.

The volunteer crew were quickly on the water and arrived at the scene around 10 minutes later.

After speaking with those on board, and with the boat in danger of drifting onto rocks, the crew decided the safest course of action was to tow the vessel back towards Saundersfoot.

Once at Saundersfoot, and with the tide out, the pleasure boat was moored in the bay. Its occupants were then taken ashore using the lifeboat’s Y-boat, where they were met by members of Tenby Coastguard Rescue Team.

The lifeboat returned to station at 11:25am.

Launch photo: Judd Kohler, St Davids Lifeboat Deputy Coxswain.

Charity

Homeless charity plans ‘safe haven’ centre with accommodation and training

Published

9 hours ago

May 2, 2026

Tom Sinclair

A new community project aims to tackle gaps in support for people living on the streets

A NEW community initiative is aiming to provide a “safe haven” for homeless people in west Wales, offering accommodation, training and round-the-clock support.

Safe Haven Homeless CIC has been set up by founder Dave Thomas, who said the idea came after witnessing the struggles faced by people sleeping rough in Carmarthen and Aberystwyth.

He described seeing individuals forced out of temporary camps, including one case where fencing was erected to prevent a homeless person returning to a former site.

Mr Thomas said: “We spoke to people who simply couldn’t access help because they had no fixed address or internet access. That was a real eye-opener.”

Research carried out by the group found that while a number of organisations provide advice and outreach support, there is a lack of safe, stable accommodation offering a full package of services.

The Herald understands that demand for housing remains high, with waiting lists for social housing stretching to around two years in some cases, particularly for those not in priority groups.

The project aims to address this by purchasing a property with land to create a multi-use support centre.

Plans include a main building with communal living areas, a kitchen, counselling rooms, IT facilities and training spaces, alongside outdoor accommodation such as bell tents and log cabins.

The site would also include recreational and work-based facilities, including a workshop, greenhouse, gym and fishing lake, designed to support wellbeing and provide opportunities for skills development.

Mr Thomas said the centre would be staffed 24 hours a day to ensure continuous support, addressing a gap where many services only operate during office hours.

The initiative also aims to become partly self-sustaining, with income generated through a small campsite, training activities and partnerships with external organisations.

Support networks are already being developed, including links with counsellors, charities and local businesses willing to offer employment opportunities to those using the service.

The organisation is being run by a team of directors alongside Mr Thomas, and is also building connections with other community projects in the region.

Mr Thomas added: “We believe this is a new and dynamic way to support homeless people. It’s about giving them not just a place to stay, but real support to rebuild their lives.”

Business

Ty Bert Caribbean Kitchen brings taste of the Caribbean to Newport

Published

13 hours ago

May 2, 2026

Tom Sinclair

A NEW café has opened in Newport, Pembrokeshire, bringing Caribbean flavours to the seaside town — with affordable bed and breakfast accommodation also planned for the near future.

Ty Bert Caribbean Kitchen has opened in the former youth hostel at the old school on Lower St Mary Street.

The venture is being run by Newport local Roberta James, who hopes to reopen the building’s five bedrooms as budget accommodation as soon as possible.

The café, which opened earlier this month, serves Caribbean dishes including jerk chicken, barbecue pork belly and goat curry, alongside more traditional options such as baked potatoes, tea, coffee, hot chocolate, cold drinks and cake.

Roberta said the idea began after she responded to a Facebook post by Newport Town Council asking what the hostel, which had been closed since Covid, could be used for.

Soon afterwards, she was putting together a business plan and submitting it to Pembrokeshire County Council, drawing on her family’s background in catering and hospitality.

“I wanted to bring it back as a hostel but also have a place for the community and somewhere to use for events and groups,” she said.

The Caribbean theme was inspired by a holiday to Antigua.

Roberta said: “I am a foodie and I loved the food there. It was simple and flavoursome.”

She is recreating those flavours with the help of her friend Jason, who is from the Caribbean.

Box meals are available to eat in or take away, with protein mains served with rice, potato, coleslaw and salad for £12.95.

“The menu is perfect for families or for people that like a bit of spice and something a bit different,” Roberta said.

Customers have already been taking meals down to the beach or Parrog, while those eating in can use the downstairs café seating or a large family-friendly room upstairs, complete with big tables and board games.

Roberta said: “The response has been really good. We have had a lot of the locals coming in. They have been really supportive.

“During the Easter holidays we had tourists coming in. They really enjoyed having something different and reasonably priced.”

Ty Bert Caribbean Kitchen is currently open from Friday to Monday, from 12:00pm to 8:00pm, with plans to open on Thursdays later in the season. Diners are also welcome to bring a bottle with their meal.

Roberta said she hopes to open the hostel as soon as possible. Painting parties have already been held to freshen up the two dormitory rooms, two double rooms and one family room.

She is now waiting for Pembrokeshire County Council, which is leasing the property to her, to repair the boiler.

Roberta said transforming the former hostel into boutique budget accommodation, while creating the café, had been a real community effort, with friends and local businesses pitching in.

“There have been lots of lovely people in the community offering to help,” she said. “They want us to succeed, which is really nice.”

More information is available on the Ty Bert Facebook page.