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Analysis: What the Autumn Budget means for Wales

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A landmark Autumn Budget brings major anti-poverty reforms and record investment—while critics warn of a £26bn tax burden and ‘chaos at both ends of the M4’

THE AUTUMN BUDGET has landed with a mixture of praise, alarm and fierce political argument after the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, announced sweeping changes affecting every part of Welsh life — from family budgets and pensions to jobs, taxation, and the future of key industries.

The day was overshadowed by the extraordinary leak of the entire Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast, which appeared online hours before the Chancellor stood up in the Commons. Senior ministers later confirmed that the “riot act” had been read to those suspected of briefing the press, as the scale of internal tension inside the UK Government became clear.

But once delivered, the Budget set out one of the largest policy shifts in years: the scrapping of the two-child benefit cap, major increases to the minimum wage, billions for Welsh industries, and a freeze in fuel duty — all set against the backdrop of the UK tax burden reaching its highest level since the Second World War.

This is The Herald’s full Welsh-focused analysis of what the Budget means — and why reactions have been so sharply divided.

Child Poverty: Two-Child Benefit Cap Scrapped for 69,000 Welsh Children

One of the Chancellor’s most consequential decisions was the abolition of the controversial two-child benefit limit, a policy long criticised by anti-poverty groups and Welsh ministers.

According to Treasury modelling, around 69,000 children in Wales will now benefit, including more than 19,000 families whose third or subsequent children were previously ineligible for additional support.

Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan described the reform as “a major step in tackling the scourge of child poverty”.

Universal Credit will also be uprated by 6%, bringing further relief to low-income households across Wales.

Minimum Wage Increases: 150,000 Welsh Workers to Benefit

The Chancellor confirmed that both the National Living Wage and National Minimum Wage would rise from April. Around 150,000 workers in Wales will receive a pay increase.

The Welsh Government hailed the rise as a boost to struggling families, but the National Franchised Dealers Association (NFDA) warned that such increases compound pressures on employers already facing falling margins.

NFDA Chief Executive Sue Robinson said that while freezing fuel duty was welcome, the Budget offered “limited support” for the automotive and EV sector.

“Registrations have fluctuated in a challenging climate,” she said, warning that missing EV incentives and the new 3p-per-mile EV road tax could “slow the industry’s progress”.

£1bn Additional Spending Power for the Welsh Government

After years of dispute over funding, the Budget awarded Wales:

  • £505m in Barnett consequentials, and
  • £425m in new fiscal flexibilities,
  • bringing close to £1bn in additional spending power.

Eluned Morgan welcomed what she called “significant support for hard-pressed public services”, citing similar flexibilities last year that funded thousands of additional NHS treatments.

She also pointed to major UK-wide investment landing directly in Wales:

  • AI Growth Zones in Cardiff, Newport and Bangor
  • £10m for South Wales’s semiconductor industry
  • £25m for Anglesey Freeport
  • £4.2m for Port Talbot steel transition land remediation
  • 3,000 new jobs tied to new nuclear at Wylfa

British Coal Pension Victory: 4,000 Ex-Miners in Wales to Benefit

The Chancellor also confirmed that the Investment Reserve Fund of the British Coal Staff Superannuation Scheme (BCSSS) will be transferred to scheme members.

Welsh Liberal Democrat spokesperson David Chadwick, who led repeated calls to resolve the issue, said:

“This is welcome news for the roughly 4,000 former miners in Wales who were denied full access to their pension pots.

It is only right they finally receive the support they have been owed for far too long.”

Fuel Duty Freeze: FairFuelUK Claims ‘Major Win’

Campaign group FairFuelUK welcomed the Chancellor’s decision to freeze fuel duty.

Founder Howard Cox said lobbying efforts “paid off”, crediting MP Lewis Cocking for championing the cause in Parliament.

But Mr Cox warned that the new 3p-per-mile EV tax could be “the thin end of the wedge” towards a wider road-pricing system.

“It’s time Government listens to and consults drivers on a long-term road user tax plan that is fair to the UK’s 37 million drivers,” he said.

Unions: ‘The Final Nail in the Coffin for Austerity’

GMB union general secretary Gary Smith said the Budget marked a decisive end to the austerity era.

“Today’s Budget looks like the final nail in the coffin for the Conservatives’ failed austerity project.

The challenge now for Labour is to rebuild the economy and bring hope to people.”

Reform UK: ‘A Disaster at Both Ends of the M4’

Reform UK Wales issued a blistering response, accusing Labour governments in Cardiff and London of damaging Welsh business.

A spokesperson said: “This Budget will take taxes to post-war highs, putting enormous pressure on employers and employees up and down Wales.”

The party claimed next May’s Senedd elections will be “a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform”, presenting themselves as the alternative to “huge tax rises”.

Welsh Conservatives: ‘£26bn Tax Bombshell’

The Welsh Conservatives condemned the Budget as “chaotic”, saying the leak of the OBR forecast showed dysfunction at the heart of government.

In a highly critical statement, the party said the Budget contained £26bn of tax rises, including:

  • Frozen income tax thresholds until 2030–31
  • A 2% rise in taxes on dividends, savings and property income
  • Gambling taxes worth £1.1bn
  • New charges on salary-sacrifice pensions
  • A council tax surcharge on homes over £2m
  • A new “sugar tax” on lattes and milkshakes
  • An EV mileage tax from 2028

Shadow Finance Secretary Sam Rowlands MS said: “Labour’s claim they wouldn’t raise taxes on working people has been exposed. Under Labour, we just keep paying more.”

He accused Welsh ministers of failing to secure a better settlement for Wales.

Lib Dems: Budget ‘fails to deliver’

Responding to the budget, Welsh Liberal Democrat Westminster Spokesperson David Chadwick MP said: “This is yet another budget that fails to deliver the structural changes needed to deliver for the people of Wales.

“My constituents will be bitterly disappointed in the lack of help for the cost-of-living crisis and the failure of the Government to listen to Liberal Democrat calls to make energy bills cheaper and cut VAT for hospitality businesses.

“Rural communities have been left abandoned again, with Labour’s refusal to compromise on the family farms tax set to cause devastation to the entire wider supply chain.

“The Government has deliberately turned its back on the single most effective step it could take to kick-start growth and fill the £90 billion Brexit-shaped hole in the public finances. No wonder our public finances are in such a rough state.”

On the lifting of the two-child benefit cap, Chadwick said: “This is a commendable move that will go a long way to addressing Wales’ sky-high child poverty levels, which are amongst the highest in Europe and something the Liberal Democrats have been campaigning on since 2017.

“But this could have been done much sooner; thousands of Welsh Children have been dragged into poverty due to the Conservatives and Labour’s refusal to do this sooner.

“This must be the start, rather than the end, to reducing child poverty in Wales, with the level of children in poverty almost stagnant since Labour started running the Welsh Government in 1999, we will need further action.

“That is why we are calling on the Welsh Government to introduce 30 hours of funded childcare per week for every child in Wales aged between 9 months and 4 years old.”

OBR Leak: Ministers ‘Read the Riot Act’

The morning began with unprecedented controversy after the OBR accidentally published its forecast online.

The leak confirmed:

  • Weak GDP growth, averaging 1.5%
  • Public debt rising to 96% of GDP
  • Borrowing only falling because of tax threshold freezes
  • The tax burden reaching 38.3% of GDP, the highest since records began

Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister Darren Jones later said officials had been “read the riot act” and called the leaks “utterly unacceptable”.

Where Does This Leave Wales?
Winners

  • Low-income families with more than two children
  • Pensioners
  • Minimum wage workers
  • The semiconductor, nuclear and advanced manufacturing sectors
  • Former coal staff pensioners
  • Councils and the Welsh Government, now with new fiscal flexibility

Losers

  • Middle-income earners pulled into higher tax brackets
  • Motorists preparing for a future road-charging system
  • Employers facing rising wage costs
  • EV buyers—now subject to per-mile charges
  • Savers, landlords and dividend earners facing tax increases

Conclusion: A Budget That Redraws the Map — But Not Without Cost

This Budget is one of the most far-reaching in years.
For Wales, it delivers:

  • huge anti-poverty reforms
  • major industrial investment
  • nearly £1bn in devolved funding
  • relief for minimum-wage households and pensioners

But it also locks in record-high taxation, leaves businesses warning of missed opportunities, and opens new political fault lines ahead of next year’s Welsh election.

The UK now faces a decade shaped by high taxes, slow growth, and deep political disagreement about the best route forward.

Wales, as ever, stands at the centre of that national argument.

 

Business

Crackwell Street closure extended again as Tenby traders voice frustration

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TRADERS in Tenby have been left frustrated after Pembrokeshire County Council extended the closure of Crackwell Street once again.

The street, which provides direct access to Tenby Harbour, has been closed for several months to allow scaffolding work to be carried out at Goscar House.

It had been due to reopen on Friday, but the council has now extended the closure until June 19.

Local businesses say the repeated delays have affected trade, with concerns that the ongoing closure is making access to the harbour area more difficult during a busy period for the town.

The road remains closed while scaffolding is in place at the property.

Caption:

Ongoing closure: Scaffolding remains in place on Crackwell Street, Tenby (Pic: Malcolm Richards).

 

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Celtic Freeport five-year plan puts Milford Haven at centre of green energy future

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Strategy promises investment, skilled jobs and new supply chains, but major barriers remain over grid connections, planning and delivery

THE CELTIC FREEPORT has published a new five-year strategy setting out how Milford Haven and Port Talbot will be used to attract major investment, create jobs and build a new low-carbon industrial economy across South and West Wales.

The plan, published today, Monday (Jun 15), says the Freeport will focus on renewable energy, advanced manufacturing, port infrastructure, floating offshore wind, hydrogen, sustainable fuels, carbon capture, cleaner steel and low-carbon logistics.

For Pembrokeshire, the strategy places Milford Haven at the heart of plans to modernise port infrastructure, support future energy projects and create new employment and training opportunities for local people.

The Celtic Freeport spans sites in Milford Haven and Port Talbot and is backed by a public-private partnership involving Associated British Ports, Camplas, Dragon LNG, Impala, Ledwood Mechanical Engineering, Neath Port Talbot Council, the Port of Milford Haven, RWE and Pembrokeshire County Council.

Over a 25-year period, the Freeport is projected to deliver more than £8bn of investment and create 11,500 jobs.

Focus on Milford Haven

The five-year strategy says the Freeport will help enable major port infrastructure upgrades to support the roll-out of floating offshore wind.

Milford Haven is already one of the UK’s most important energy ports, and the plan makes clear that the area is expected to play a major role in the transition from traditional energy industries to cleaner fuels and renewable power.

The document says the Freeport will work to attract investment into key sectors including offshore wind, hydrogen, solar, batteries, sustainable aviation fuel, ammonia, pipelines, carbon capture and storage, and advanced manufacturing.

It also says the Freeport wants to create a stronger local supply chain so that businesses in Pembrokeshire and the wider region can benefit from major industrial development, rather than seeing work and contracts go elsewhere.

The strategy says one of the aims is to ensure local businesses and landowners are supported in accessing capital and external investment for land remediation, infrastructure upgrades and priority projects.

Jobs and skills

A major part of the plan focuses on skills, training and local employment.

The Freeport says it wants to create a “sustainable talent pipeline” where local people can see future job opportunities and receive support with upskilling, career advice and connections to employers.

The strategy says this will include work with schools, colleges, trade unions, local authorities and employers to identify future skills gaps and create employment pathways.

Pembrokeshire College is named among the education partners expected to help deliver workforce transition and future skills for both existing energy industries and new green energy sectors.

The plan also says the Freeport will look at ways to support economically inactive people into work and will consider using some funding to establish a community fund focused on projects that visibly benefit local people, including possible support for transport-related challenges.

Investment and infrastructure

The strategy sets out four main priorities for the next five years.

These are driving capital investment into key Freeport industries, helping landowners progress development projects, exploring local supply chain innovation and decarbonisation, and laying the foundations for a thriving skills market.

The Freeport says it will deliver a £25m seed capital programme by the end of 2028/29 and will prioritise at least two seed capital projects in 2026, subject to agreements on governance and funding.

Business cases for selected projects are expected to be prepared during 2026 before being considered by the Celtic Freeport board. If projects are no longer considered feasible, the strategy says a reallocation process will be required.

The Freeport also plans to build a pipeline of future investment projects using retained non-domestic rates, with revenues expected to begin flowing back from 2028.

The document says business development and marketing will be used to attract high-value tenants to priority sites, including through international investment campaigns and sector-specific proposals.

Planning and grid issues

The plan acknowledges that major development is not straightforward.

It says businesses face challenges including grid connection issues, planning delays, policy uncertainty and the high upfront cost of infrastructure.

To tackle this, the Freeport says it will work with the UK and Welsh Governments, Natural Resources Wales, local authorities and public investment bodies to remove barriers and unlock private investment.

It will also hold monthly meetings with landowners to monitor progress, identify delivery problems and escalate strategic risks where necessary.

Governance and public accountability

The strategy also sets out plans to expand the Freeport’s governance arrangements.

The current board includes representatives from Milford Haven Port Authority, Associated British Ports, Pembrokeshire County Council and Neath Port Talbot Council.

The Freeport says this structure will be expanded to include non-executive directors and representatives from key landowners and business operators.

The plan also includes commitments to publish board schedules and minutes, hold one public board meeting each year, organise an annual community open day, run skills and employment sessions in schools, and hold local job fairs and apprenticeship roadshows as opportunities grow.

Trade unions are also expected to have a formal route into the process through a workers’ consultative forum, with the strategy saying unions will help inform skills interventions, fair work principles and employment priorities.

Cathy Hall, Interim CEO of the Celtic Freeport, said: “This Five-Year Plan sets out how the Celtic Freeport will support businesses across the region to decarbonise, grow and access new opportunities.

“We will be focussing on delivering projects to consolidate the region’s strong industrial future.”

The publication of the plan marks an important moment for Pembrokeshire, where hopes of long-term industrial renewal are closely tied to Milford Haven’s role in energy, ports and marine engineering.

Supporters say the Freeport could bring major investment and skilled jobs to the county.

But the success of the plan will depend on whether the promised benefits are felt locally, whether Pembrokeshire firms can win work from the new supply chains, and whether young people in the county are given a realistic route into the jobs created by the green industrial transition.

 

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Specialist clinic launched in Haverfordwest to treat common eye condition

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A HAVERFORDWEST opticians has launched a specialist clinic for dry eye disease, offering new support for people living with the common condition.

Specsavers Haverfordwest has introduced its Advanced Dry Eye Clinic to give customers access to in-depth diagnosis and targeted treatment for dry eye.

Dry eye is a common, but often misunderstood, condition where the eyes do not produce enough tears, or the tears evaporate too quickly, leading to discomfort, irritation and sometimes blurred vision.

It can be linked to a range of factors, including increased screen use, contact lens wear, ageing and environmental conditions. As many as one in three people suffer from dry eye and most causes can be treated.

Many people are surprised to learn that watery eyes can actually be a sign of dry eye, as the eyes produce poor-quality reflex tears in response to irritation. The new service provides an in-depth approach to diagnosing and managing the condition.

While many high street opticians now offer dry eye clinics, Specsavers Haverfordwest provides a wider range of specialist treatments and technology that are not commonly available.

Using advanced imaging to assess the eyes and tear glands, the team can identify the underlying cause of symptoms and create a personalised treatment plan for each customer.

Whilst there are a range of different treatments available, the major investment has been in the introduction of eye-light devices, bringing advanced IPL (Intense Pulsed Light) and LLLT (Low-Level Light Therapy) treatments to customers suffering from dry eye symptoms.

Designed to target the underlying causes of dry eye disease, the eye-light device combines clinically proven light-based therapies to help improve tear quality, reduce inflammation, and restore eye comfort. The treatment is safe, non-invasive, and suitable for many patients experiencing irritation, burning, watery eyes or discomfort linked to screen use and modern lifestyles.

The clinic also supports contact lens wearers experiencing discomfort, helping them return to comfortable, everyday use.

Some of the first customers to use the clinic have already noticed improvements in their symptoms.

Danielle Thomas says: ‘I honestly can’t believe the difference. I’d been struggling with sore, gritty eyes for years and had given up wearing my contact lenses altogether – they just became too uncomfortable. I was constantly using drops with very little relief.

‘From the moment I walked into the dry eye treatment room, it felt completely different to a normal appointment. The environment is calm, almost spa-like and the whole experience was surprisingly relaxing. The treatments were comfortable and the team explained everything so clearly. After just three sessions the improvement was notable – my eyes feel normal again.

‘The constant irritation and watering have gone and I’m now back in contact lenses comfortably, which I never thought would be possible. It’s genuinely been life changing. I wish I’d known about it sooner.’

Wayne Jones, optometrist and retail director at Specsavers Haverfordwest, adds: ‘Dry eye is something we see very frequently, yet it’s still widely dismissed as a minor irritation. In reality, it can have a real impact on comfort, vision and overall quality of life.

‘What many people don’t realise is that, in many cases, there is an underlying cause that can be identified and treated.

‘By launching this clinic, we’re able to offer a much more detailed and personalised level of care here in West Wales, helping us support more customers locally. We would encourage anyone experiencing persistent symptoms such as dryness, irritation or blurred vision to have their eyes checked, as there’s often a treatable cause.’

People interested in using the clinic should call Specsavers Haverfordwest on 01437 767788 to book an initial assessment and discuss treatment options.

 

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