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Politics

UKIP surge in opinion polls

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Neil Hamilton: Thought to be a mid and west regional Assembly candidate

Neil Hamilton: Thought to be a mid and west regional Assembly candidate

IN SPITE of a troubled Assembly election campaign, the failure of the National Executive to ratify any candidates as we move within three months of the elections and the resignation of a UKIP councillor in protest over the parachuting in of prominent UKIP members onto the regional lists, the party has increased their projected vote share to 18% according to a recent poll.

If this was replicated on voting day, it would lead to UKIP gaining nine regional Assembly seats – including two in mid and west Wales.

Support for Labour has slipped to 31%, which is around 10% lower than in the run-up to the 2011 elections, where the party gained 30 seats and formed a minority government.

The party is currently predicted to win 27 seats, of which two are regional, leaving them four seats short of a majority. However, support for both Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Conservatives appears to be unchanged, beyond the 1% margin of error, meaning that the parties look likely to win 10 and 12 seats respectively. This would mean that, if these figures were reflected on voting day, it would take a coalition of Plaid Cymru, the Conservatives, and UKIP to gain a working majority.

YouGov shows consistently higher levels of support for UKIP than other polls. At the last election it showed significantly higher shares of the vote for both Labour and UKIP than were actually returned in the election poll. However, surveys suggest that UKIP voters and Plaid Cymru voters are more likely to vote that Conservative, Liberal Democrat, and Labour voters.

It is unlikely that Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives would work in a coalition together. Leanne Wood, Adam Price and Helen Mary Jones – all of whom advised against the ‘rainbow coalition’ in 2007, are likely to be elected to the Assembly.

While the Welsh Conservatives have not yet announced their intentions regarding EU membership, leader Andrew RT Davies has said that there need to be an open discussion about the subject. This, allied with remarks he made at the Conservative Party conference last year in which he asked for England to ‘take Mark Reckless back’ would seem to indicate that a Conservative UKIP coalition would be unlikely.

Plaid Cymru are ideologically opposed to UKIP on several key points including EU membership. In addition, the party lost seats following a coalition with Labour. It is hard to see how a coalition with the Conservatives and UKIP would not cost them far more, especially as the party is the only one in Wales to call itself socialist.

A return to the 2007 One Wales coalition between Plaid Cymru and Labour has been predicted by some pundits. However, some campaigners during the 2015 General Election claimed that overt support given to Ed Milliband’s Labour government cost the party dearly on the doorstep. Andrew RT Davies has already begun to make political capital out of this, casting his party as the only alternative to a Welsh Labour-led administration.

It is hard to understand why UKIP has delayed in announcing candidates, when at least two south west Wales branches held local hustings before Christmas. UKIP are highly unlikely to win any constituency seats in the area, and the suspicion remains that, with the probable exception of Neil Hamilton in Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, local party members will stand for the constituencies, while the more winnable regional seats will be contested by more high-profile candidates, such as Mr Reckless and UKIP press officer Alexandra Phillips.

The Herald asked UKIP for a statement regarding its candidates over two weeks ago. That request, addressed to Alexandra Philips as UKIP Wales’ Press Officer, was not favoured with either an acknowledgement or response,

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News

Kurtz criticises Tufnell over GP pressures at Argyle Medical Centre

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Local MS says Welsh Government decisions are root cause of crisis

CONSERVATIVE Senedd Member Sam Kurtz has criticised Labour MP Henry Tufnell after the MP suggested GP practice management should be held accountable for patient dissatisfaction at Pembroke Dock’s Argyle Medical Centre.

Patients registered at the surgery have for years raised concerns about access to appointments, particularly difficulties securing same-day consultations and long waits to get through on the phone.

Speaking to BBC Wales, Mr Tufnell said he had discussed the situation with the Health Board’s Chief Executive and claimed the senior official “feels powerless” to intervene.

He said: “I’ve spoken to the Chief Executive of the Health Board, and he feels powerless to do anything about it. We need to come together and hold the management of these surgeries to account; there must be transparency about what they’re doing, and, fundamentally, we need reform in the system.”

Concerned about Argyle Surgery: Henry Tufnell MP

Mr Kurtz responded angrily, arguing that responsibility for reforming NHS Wales rests with the Welsh Government, not GP surgeries or frontline staff.

He said: “I don’t think it’s very helpful to point the finger at the surgery and suggest the fault lies with them when staff are working incredibly hard.

“If he wants to point the finger, it should be at his Labour colleagues in Cardiff Bay, who have continuously piled pressure onto GP practices by imposing contracts that are extremely difficult to deliver. That is why surgeries like Argyle are under such strain.”

Mr Kurtz later told The Pembrokeshire Herald that the problems faced by GP practices across Pembrokeshire were the result of long-term policy failures rather than poor local management.

“As someone born and raised in Pembrokeshire, I have seen first-hand the damage caused by the Welsh Labour Government’s mismanagement of our local NHS, despite the dedication and professionalism of frontline staff who continue to do their very best in increasingly challenging conditions,” he said.

“Anyone seeking to place the blame on NHS staff should back off. The fault does not lie with them. Real improvement will only come through properly supporting GP practices, listening to their concerns and working with them rather than against them.”

Argyle Medical Group is the second-largest GP practice in Wales, serving around 25,000 registered patients with nine GPs — an average of approximately 2,800 patients per doctor. In 2021, the practice had the equivalent of 10.75 full-time GPs and was actively seeking to recruit more.

However, ongoing recruitment difficulties forced Argyle to withdraw from its contract at St Clement’s Surgery in Neyland and reduce hours at St Oswald’s Surgery in Pembroke. Following the Neyland closure, patients were transferred to the Neyland and Johnston Medical Practice, which later handed back its GP contract after retirements and further recruitment problems. Those patients are now treated by salaried and locum GPs employed by the Health Board.

Similar pressures are being felt across Pembrokeshire, from Tenby in the south-east to St Davids in the north-west. While Wales does not face “GP deserts” on the same scale as the well-documented shortage of NHS dentists, reduced access to general practice has contributed to more patients attending hospital for conditions once routinely dealt with by GPs. This has placed additional strain on hospital services and staff.

In 2018, the Welsh Government pledged to recruit 1,000 additional GPs into NHS Wales. While overall GP headcount has risen, the number of full-time GPs has continued to fall. Many newer recruits work part-time, as locums, or on limited contracts, meaning fewer doctors are available in practice on a day-to-day basis.

Newly qualified GPs have also tended to favour larger urban centres, particularly along the M4 corridor and in north-east Wales, where professional support and career opportunities are greater. Critics argue that Welsh Government recruitment and retention strategies have failed to address persistent shortages in rural and coastal communities.

There are also ongoing shortfalls in independent prescribing pharmacists and community nursing staff, limiting efforts to relieve pressure on GP surgeries.

Mr Kurtz said: “The foundation of NHS care — with GPs as the first point of contact — has buckled. Blaming GP staff is a distraction. The issues are structural, long-term and political, and ultimately the buck stops in Cardiff Bay.”

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Health

NHS Wales spends more than £15.5m on agency radiographers as pressures grow

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NHS WALES has spent more than £15.5 million on agency radiography staff over the past five years, as mounting pressure on diagnostic imaging services raises concerns about long-term workforce sustainability.

Figures obtained by the Welsh Liberal Democrats through Freedom of Information requests show that spending on temporary radiographers almost doubled between 2020/21 and 2023/24, despite relatively low headline vacancy rates across Welsh health boards.

Radiographers carry out X-rays, CT, MRI and ultrasound scans, which are essential to emergency care, cancer diagnosis, trauma treatment and elective surgery. Delays or shortages in imaging services can have a knock-on effect across patient pathways, slowing diagnosis and treatment.

The data also highlights an ageing workforce. More than a quarter of radiographers in Wales are aged over 50, with more than one in ten aged 55 or above. In some health boards, a significantly higher proportion of staff are approaching retirement age, raising concerns that experienced radiographers could leave faster than they can be replaced.

Betsi Cadwaladr University Health Board recorded the highest agency spend, at more than £8.1m over the period covered by the FOI requests. Other health boards also reported growing reliance on temporary staff to maintain services, particularly where specialist skills are required.

While official vacancy figures remain comparatively low, professional bodies have previously warned that vacancy data does not always reflect pressure on services, as posts can be held open or covered through overtime and agency staff rather than filled permanently.

Diagnostic imaging demand has increased steadily in recent years, driven by an ageing population, advances in medical imaging technology, and rising referrals linked to cancer and long-term conditions.

Commenting on the findings, Welsh Liberal Democrat Leader Jane Dodds MS said:

“Radiographers are absolutely vital to the NHS. From diagnosing cancer to treating people in A&E, the vast majority of patient journeys depend on timely access to scans.

“These figures show a system increasingly relying on expensive agency staff while failing to plan properly for the future workforce. That is not fair on patients, and it is not fair on staff who are already under huge pressure.

“The Welsh Labour Government must take urgent action to improve recruitment and retention, support experienced staff to stay in the workforce for longer, and ensure NHS Wales has a sustainable radiography workforce fit for the future.”

The Welsh Government has previously said it is working with health boards to improve recruitment and retention across NHS Wales, including expanding training places and supporting flexible working arrangements to help retain experienced staff. Ministers have also pointed to record numbers of staff working in the NHS overall, while acknowledging ongoing challenges in hard-to-recruit specialties.

However, opposition parties and professional bodies continue to warn that without long-term workforce planning, reliance on agency staff could increase further, adding to costs and pressure on already stretched diagnostic services.

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Politics

Ajax armoured vehicle trial paused again as MP warns jobs must be protected

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A FRESH pause to trials of the Ajax armoured vehicle programme has prompted renewed calls for workers’ jobs in Wales to be safeguarded.

The trial has been halted after another soldier reportedly fell ill during testing, adding to a series of delays and technical problems that have dogged the long-running Ministry of Defence project.

Welsh Liberal Democrat Westminster spokesperson David Chadwick MP said the repeated failures raised serious questions about accountability and cost.

He warned ministers must ensure taxpayers are not left footing the bill if the programme ultimately collapses, arguing that responsibility should rest with defence contractor General Dynamics.

“With the Ajax programme beset by repeated failures and significant delays, ministers need to confirm that taxpayers will not be left to bear the cost of these failures,” he said.

“If the project does end up being scrapped, the Government must ensure that the 400 workers currently employed on the programme in Merthyr Tydfil will receive full support.”

Mr Chadwick added that the Merthyr site should be prioritised for future defence and military development work if Ajax does not proceed, to protect skilled jobs and investment in the area.

The Ajax programme has faced years of scrutiny over safety concerns, excessive noise and vibration, and mounting delays, with the latest pause reigniting pressure on the Government to clarify the project’s future.

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