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Politics

UKIP surge in opinion polls

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Neil Hamilton: Thought to be a mid and west regional Assembly candidate

Neil Hamilton: Thought to be a mid and west regional Assembly candidate

IN SPITE of a troubled Assembly election campaign, the failure of the National Executive to ratify any candidates as we move within three months of the elections and the resignation of a UKIP councillor in protest over the parachuting in of prominent UKIP members onto the regional lists, the party has increased their projected vote share to 18% according to a recent poll.

If this was replicated on voting day, it would lead to UKIP gaining nine regional Assembly seats – including two in mid and west Wales.

Support for Labour has slipped to 31%, which is around 10% lower than in the run-up to the 2011 elections, where the party gained 30 seats and formed a minority government.

The party is currently predicted to win 27 seats, of which two are regional, leaving them four seats short of a majority. However, support for both Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Conservatives appears to be unchanged, beyond the 1% margin of error, meaning that the parties look likely to win 10 and 12 seats respectively. This would mean that, if these figures were reflected on voting day, it would take a coalition of Plaid Cymru, the Conservatives, and UKIP to gain a working majority.

YouGov shows consistently higher levels of support for UKIP than other polls. At the last election it showed significantly higher shares of the vote for both Labour and UKIP than were actually returned in the election poll. However, surveys suggest that UKIP voters and Plaid Cymru voters are more likely to vote that Conservative, Liberal Democrat, and Labour voters.

It is unlikely that Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives would work in a coalition together. Leanne Wood, Adam Price and Helen Mary Jones – all of whom advised against the ‘rainbow coalition’ in 2007, are likely to be elected to the Assembly.

While the Welsh Conservatives have not yet announced their intentions regarding EU membership, leader Andrew RT Davies has said that there need to be an open discussion about the subject. This, allied with remarks he made at the Conservative Party conference last year in which he asked for England to ‘take Mark Reckless back’ would seem to indicate that a Conservative UKIP coalition would be unlikely.

Plaid Cymru are ideologically opposed to UKIP on several key points including EU membership. In addition, the party lost seats following a coalition with Labour. It is hard to see how a coalition with the Conservatives and UKIP would not cost them far more, especially as the party is the only one in Wales to call itself socialist.

A return to the 2007 One Wales coalition between Plaid Cymru and Labour has been predicted by some pundits. However, some campaigners during the 2015 General Election claimed that overt support given to Ed Milliband’s Labour government cost the party dearly on the doorstep. Andrew RT Davies has already begun to make political capital out of this, casting his party as the only alternative to a Welsh Labour-led administration.

It is hard to understand why UKIP has delayed in announcing candidates, when at least two south west Wales branches held local hustings before Christmas. UKIP are highly unlikely to win any constituency seats in the area, and the suspicion remains that, with the probable exception of Neil Hamilton in Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, local party members will stand for the constituencies, while the more winnable regional seats will be contested by more high-profile candidates, such as Mr Reckless and UKIP press officer Alexandra Phillips.

The Herald asked UKIP for a statement regarding its candidates over two weeks ago. That request, addressed to Alexandra Philips as UKIP Wales’ Press Officer, was not favoured with either an acknowledgement or response,

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Politics

Pembrokeshire flag policy to avoid ‘creating tensions’ moved

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AN OFFICIAL policy for flying flags at, and lighting up, Pembrokeshire’s County Hall in order to avoid “the potential to cause controversy and create tensions between community groups,” is to be presented to full council.

At the April meeting of Pembrokeshire County Council’s Policy & Pre-Decision Overview and Scrutiny Committee, members agreed – with one vote against – to recommend official guidance for the flying of flags and lighting up of County Hall is backed by full council at its May 9 meeting.

The call for official guidance had been made following a March request by Cllr Huw Murphy for the Haverfordwest home of Pembrokeshire County Council to fly the Falklands flag on June 14, to mark the islands’ “return of democratic rule following an illegal military occupation by Argentina” 40 years beforehand, in 1982.

At that meeting, members agreed to refer the matter to the committee, along with official guidance on lighting-up, through a cross-party group.

Leader Cllr David Simpson said: “Like all symbols, flags and the lighting up of buildings are open to wide-ranging interpretations and therefore also have the potential to cause controversy, and create tensions between community groups whose opinions may differ, a situation which we ourselves have experienced here previously.

“County Hall should be a neutral venue and I therefore suggest we secure cross-party support for any cause requesting the flying of a flag or lighting up of the building.”

Members of the April committee heard a long list recommendations and conditions for both flags and the ‘lighting up,’ one of the recommendations for refusal was “for any party political purposes either, locally, regionally, nationally or internationally”.

It also said any requests “considered to be of a political or potentially controversial nature,” will require the consideration and approval of the leader of the council in consultation with the chief executive, in accordance with the code of recommended practice on Local Authority publicity in Wales.

The final decision will be made by full council at its May meeting.

County Hall has previously been ‘lit up’ for a wide variety of reasons including Holocaust Memorial Day, Universal Children’s Day, International Women’s Day, in tribute to NHS workers, and to mark domestic abuse awareness month.

It has also been lit up for LGBT+ History Month and in support of the Black Lives Matter movement.

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Politics

Plans to reform the Senedd edge nearer

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PLANS to expand the Senedd and change the voting system have moved a step closer, but MSs called for urgent action to address a lack of accountability.

The Senedd voted on amendments to the members and elections bill, which would increase the size of the Welsh Parliament from 60 to 96 members.

Under the bill, the 32 constituencies that will be used in the next general election would be paired to create 16 for the 2026 Senedd poll, with each returning six members.

However, proposals to introduce a recall system and make it illegal for Senedd members or candidates to deliberately deceive the public were withdrawn at the eleventh hour.

MSs held a stage-three debate, the final opportunity to alter the reforms, on April 30 ahead of a crunch vote next week which coincides with 25 years since the first Senedd election.

Plaid Cymru’s Adam Price proposed making deliberate deception by candidates or Senedd members a criminal offence, with conviction resulting in disqualification.

The former party leader raised concerns about falling public trust in politics worldwide, warning that a credibility gap has become an accountability chasm over the decades.

“Now, we’re staring into an abyss,” he said. “We’re looking at a future world of deepfakes, post-truth politics and wave after wave of disinformation.”

The Carmarthen East and Dinefwr MS told the chamber the proposal would be a world first, stressing: “We need to do something, and we need to do something urgently.”

Supporting the amendment, the Conservatives’ Darren Millar said it is illegal for a doctor to mislead a patient as he asked: “Why should it be any different for us?”

Lee Waters, a Labour MS, backed the “reasonable” proposal despite initially being sceptical, pointing to bipartisan support for bringing politics in line with other professions.

Jane Dodds, the Lib Dems’ leader in Wales, added her support, saying a 2021 survey found 63% of voters view politicians as being “out for themselves” compared with 48% in 2014.

Mick Antoniw, who is counsel general, the Welsh Government’s chief legal adviser, said further detailed legal and policy analysis is required to avoid unintended consequences.

Mr Antoniw, who is in charge of the bill, emphasised the importance of members being able to speak freely and suggested Wales does not have the powers to create such an offence.

Mr Price withdrew the amendment, saying he did not want to fracture emerging consensus by forcing a vote, but he stressed the Senedd must legislate this term.

Mr Millar called for a recall system, which would allow voters to remove a Senedd member between elections, similar to the one introduced in Westminster after the expenses scandal.

The Tory MS told the chamber a system of recall is an important accountability mechanism, which empowers voters to pass judgement on their representatives.

He said: “It would ensure trust and accountability are at the heart of everything we do – not just at election time but throughout the time members are in office.”

Seemingly referring to Rhys ab Owen, who is serving a 42-day suspension without salary from the Senedd, Mr Millar said: “These are matters of live public interest.”

Vikki Howells, who chairs the Senedd standards committee, said the committee will work on recommendations around a recall system as part of a wider inquiry on accountability.

Ms Dodds said a recall mechanism would be a pivotal step to address eroding public trust.

She raised the Citizens’ Assembly on Democracy’s concerns about an “embarrassing political culture of dishonesty and lack of serious consequences for bad behaviour”.

The former MP, who herself won a 2019 by-election triggered by a recall petition before her election to the Senedd, pointed out that Boris Johnson resigned at the threat of recall.

Mr Antoniw said the Welsh Government would not vote for the amendments but ministers stood ready to support implementation of the committee’s recommendations.

Mr Millar withdrew the amendment in light of the cross-party inquiry but the Clwyd West MS warned time is running out to implement recall before the 2026 election.

The Senedd voted down calls for a referendum and to change the proposed closed-list electoral system which would see people voting for parties rather than individuals.

Suggesting a flexible-list system, which would give voters more say over who is elected, Mr Millar described closed lists as a power grab that would damage Welsh democracy.

He warned that voter turnout – which has never topped 50% in a Senedd election – could be even lower in future if people are given less say over who represents them.

Mr Millar explained a flexible-list system would give voters more choice, with any candidate receiving more than 10% of the vote moving to the top of the pile.

Heledd Fychan, for Plaid Cymru, said her party continues to favour the single-transferable vote, which allows people to rank candidates, or a flexible-list system.

But she stressed the need for pragmatism and compromise with a two-thirds supermajority required for the bill to pass through the Senedd.

Ms Fychan welcomed that Wales would become the first UK nation to entirely move away from the “harmful” first-past-the-post system used in Westminster elections.

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News

Don’t forget to vote on Thursday, May 2

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THURSDAY, May 2 is your chance to vote for the Dyfed-Powys Police and Crime Commissioner.

Don’t forget to use your vote and head to your local polling station between 7am and 10pm.

They are elected by the public to hold Chief Constables and the police force to account on their behalf.

A Police and Crime Commissioner’s job is to set the police budget and make sure it is spent effectively, appoint the local police forces Chief Constables, set police and crime plans in collaboration with residents and work closely with the local council and other organisations on these plans. 

This is the first election in Wales where you will need photographic ID to vote. 

Accepted forms of ID include a UK, European Economic Area (EEA) or Commonwealth passport or drivers’ licence; and some concessionary travel passes, such as an older person’s bus pass or an Oyster 60+ card. Voters will be able to use expired ID if they are still recognisable from the photo.

Or you may have applied for a Voter Authority Certificate which is also accepted. 

If you plan on taking your Postal Vote to a polling station or County Hall main reception remember to fill in a vote return form. Without the completed form those postal vote(s) will be rejected. 

You can only hand in your own postal vote, and postal votes for up to five other people.

You can find out more about the Police and Crime Commissioner Elections online (opens in new window). 

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