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Covid cases at highest locally since January

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R-rate as high as before the last lockdown

Positive tests rise

Vaccination programme reduces hospitalisations

THE LOCAL rate of community transmission of Covid-19 is now as high as it was when Wales entered lockdown in January this year

The Herald investigated a suggestion that the number of cases of confirmed Covid infections was increasing, and businesses were caught between a general shortage of staff and a rising number of staff absences caused by Covid-19.

THE CURRENT NUMBERS

Data shared with The Herald by Hywel Dda UHB shows that the R-rate, used as an indicator for Covid-19’s spread, is now 1.44.

That means that every person infected with Covid transmits the virus to more than 1 person.

Earlier this year, before lockdown eased, the R-rate was around 0.8.

The rate is now headed towards an autumn and winter peak, the same as 2020.

In the last month, the number of positive tests for the killer virus in the Hywel Dda UHB area has significantly increased.

On August 25 alone, the Board recorded 264 confirmed new cases.

In each of the last three weeks to August 25, the number of confirmed new cases has risen.

That fits the national picture, which shows cases rising at a much sharper rate now than they did at the beginning of the second wave in October last year.

However, and importantly, the rates for hospitalisation for those infected with Covid have fallen.

That suggests that the Welsh Government’s vaccination programme has loosened the link between Covid infection and the type of serious sickness that needs hospital treatment as a result.

Although the Welsh Government has extended its vaccination programme to include young people, take-up among that group remains relatively low.

Swayed by scare stories and the sort of pseudo-science peddled online, some in older age groups have either been deterred from taking the vaccine when it’s offered or refused it altogether.

Reaching those groups, potentially at greater risk than younger people, and addressing the gap in vaccine take-up among BAME individuals, remains a major challenge for the Welsh Government.

To take two data points four weeks apart, in the week to August 3, there were five Covid deaths in Wales.
In the week ending August 31, that number was 18.

Five new deaths were recorded on August 31 alone.

The drivers for those increases are undoubtedly this summer’s relaxation of restrictions on social distancing, the opening of nightclubs and bars, and a significant drop in the number of people wearing masks or taking the same precautions as they did before Wales moved to Level Zero.

Those factors, combined with the greater infectiousness of Covid’s Delta variant, mean that Wales heads into the autumn – and the flu season – with more sick people and a greater likelihood of abnormal seasonal strains on NHS services.

SCHOOLS’ RETURN LIKELY TO HAVE AN IMPACT

As schools and further education colleges return from the summer holiday and universities return later in September, the number of young people mixing together will inevitably rise.It follows that the increased number of contacts increases the possibility of infection with Covid-19.Headteachers have criticised new guidance from the WelshGovernment for schools as being both too late in the day and contradictory.

Laura Doel, director of school leaders’ union, NAHT Cymru, said: “We welcome the fact that schools have until 20 September to transition to the new framework.
“However, there are elements of the framework that are contradictory and likely to lead to confusion.
“The framework states that Wales is at low risk, yet the Welsh Government instructed schools to continue with lateral flow testing on secondary pupils and all school staff. According to today’s framework, that is a practice for when we are at high risk.
“The advice refers to rising hospital admissions and the seven-day rolling incidence of infection, which appears to put us in the moderate risk category.
“Added to this, there is a lack of differentiation between the measures to take, depending on the risk level. When we are talking risk, when we are planning for what we want to be a sustainable return, we must be absolutely clear of the risk level.”

In the three-weekly Covid update delivered last week, Mark Drakeford said: “Coronavirus has not gone away. While we are able to remain at Alert Level Zero, we must not abandon all the simple measures which have done so much to keep us all safe.”

When questioned, the First Minister refused to rule out reimposing restrictions if the situation deteriorated.

Russell George, the Shadow Health Minister, responded to that prospect: “Talk of reimposing restrictions is completely unnecessary at this stage.
“Moving forward we need to ensure all public health decisions in Wales are taken on the best possible data, with a focus on hospitalisation figures and a clear breakdown of those who are admitted due to COVID or other illnesses, and also those who acquire it in a hospital setting.”

In July, an S4C investigation revealed a quarter of all deaths from Covid-19 in Wales arose from hospital transmission.

PRESSURES AGAINST LOCKDOWN

Both the UK and Welsh Governments are determined to avoid any further lockdown or reimposition of restrictions now relaxed.

Much, however, depends on how long vaccination programmes, including booster shots and an extended flu vaccination programme in Wales, can keep a lid on the number of hospitalisations and whether a new and more infectious strain arises.

The issue is especially acute in the UK, which has fewer Intensive Care Beds per head of population and fewer Intensive

Care specialists than any other Western European nation.

At the start of the pandemic, Wales’s ICU bed capacity was 153.

That is 4.9 for every 100,000 of our population.

In Croatia, a country of approximately the same population and around the same size of Wales, the number of ICU beds was 14.7 for every 100,000 of population.

Any further pressure on Wales’s sensitive NHS capacity will have an inevitable knock-on effect on the availability and promptness of diagnoses and treatments for chronic conditions, including heart disease and cancer.

The picture is further complicated by a yawning gap between the demand for social care staff and the number of applicants for job vacancies.

Those pressures, combined with the economic costs of lockdown, act as an effective brake on governments’ range of actions.

And that’s setting aside the inevitable political fallout of new restrictions’ imposition, especially in Westminster.

News

UK government boosts Port Talbot transition fund with extra £22m support

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AN EXTRA £22 million in UK Government funding has been announced to support workers and businesses affected by Tata Steel’s transition at Port Talbot, taking the total community support package to £122 million.

The funding uplift means the Tata Steel / Port Talbot Transition Board fund now stands at £102 million from the UK Government, alongside a further £20 million contributed by Tata Steel. Ministers say the additional money could help support up to 1,000 more jobs across the local economy.

Since July 2024, the Transition Board has already allocated £80 million to the Port Talbot area, funding thousands of training courses for individuals and helping nearly 200 businesses to start, expand, invest in new equipment and move into new markets.

The UK Government said the rapid deployment of the funding has helped prevent an increase in unemployment benefit claims during Tata Steel’s shift towards greener steelmaking.

Following strong demand for support, a further £22 million has now been allocated, extending the availability of Supply Chain, Business Start-Up, Resilience and Growth funding into 2026. The announcement was made on Thursday (Dec 18).

Secretary of State for Wales Jo Stevens said the government was determined to continue backing the community through the transition.

She said: “This government has acted decisively to support workers and businesses in Port Talbot, allocating the entire £80 million in initial funding quickly into the community to ensure that whoever needed support could access it.

“Grants have been delivered swiftly to meet the needs of local people, businesses and communities, and there is evidence that our approach is working. But we want to make sure that as many people as possible have continued access to support with the extra £22 million for local businesses into the new year.

“We said we would back workers and businesses affected by the transition at Port Talbot and are delivering on that promise.

“It remains a difficult time for Tata Steel workers, their families and the community, but we will continue to support them.”

Ms Stevens announced the funding increase during a visit to Port Talbot-based engineering firm JES Group, which has received Transition Board support. She also toured the JES Academy, which is providing training for dozens of former and current steelworkers.

Justin Johnson, Director of JES Group and The Skills Academy, welcomed the announcement.

He said: “I want to express our gratitude to the UK Government for establishing the original Transition Fund and for now having the foresight to increase the level of support at such a critical moment.

“This uplift will make a significant difference to supply-chain companies like ours. As Tata Steel transitions to electric arc furnace steelmaking, businesses like JES must transition alongside it, while also diversifying into new sectors to reduce reliance on what was once our core work.

“We believe the history of steelmaking in Port Talbot is far from over and that a brighter, greener future lies ahead, but while that future takes shape, diversification is essential.

“The journey has not been easy, and it is far from over, but this additional support creates real opportunities for stability and growth. I also want to recognise Business Wales and Neath Port Talbot Council’s economic development team for their guidance and practical assistance.”

The Transition Board was established to protect jobs and the local economy during Tata Steel’s move to greener steel production. Information on applying for support is available via the Tata Steel Transition Information Hub.

The UK Government has also committed £2.5 billion to rebuild and decarbonise the UK steel industry, with a national Steel Strategy due to be published in early 2026. This includes £500 million already allocated to Tata Steel for the electric arc furnace now under construction at Port Talbot.

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Charity

Communities across Pembrokeshire unite in memory of Sally Allen

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THE TRAGIC loss of Sally Allen in 2025 sent shockwaves through communities across Pembrokeshire and beyond. Deeply loved and widely respected, Sally was an integral part of the agricultural and equestrian world. Her sudden passing left an immeasurable sense of loss for her family, friends, and the many organisations and communities she was part of.

In the days and weeks following the accident, people from across the county came together in an extraordinary show of compassion, solidarity and remembrance. Sandy Bear Children’s Bereavement Charity was on hand to offer guidance and support to communities affected by the tragedy, helping individuals and families navigate the early and often overwhelming stages of grief.

Support in Sally’s memory has been widespread, with particular strength coming from the agricultural and equestrian sectors that meant so much to her. Young Farmers Clubs across Pembrokeshire organised fundraising evenings and gatherings, creating spaces for people to come together, share memories, and acknowledge the profound loss felt by so many.

On Monday 15 December, a deeply moving moment of remembrance took place as Sally’s family came together with David Evans, Chief Executive Officer of Clynderwen and Cardiganshire Farmers Ltd (CCF), along with further representatives from CCF and Sandy Bear Children’s Bereavement Charity. The occasion marked the launch of a specially commissioned design on one of CCF’s lorries.

The vehicle, N12 CCF, now proudly carries sunflowers – a flower Sally loved – alongside her name, celebrating her life while also featuring the Sandy Bear logo. This thoughtful tribute was warmly received by the Allen family and ensures that Sally’s memory, kindness and impact will continue to be carried far and wide.

CCF is deeply rooted in the landscapes and communities Sally cared about. At the launch, Mr Evans announced that CCF will make a donation to Sandy Bear aligned with the miles travelled by N12 CCF throughout January, transforming everyday journeys into a lasting legacy of support.

In addition, a JustGiving page will remain open until the end of January, allowing individuals and organisations to continue honouring Sally’s memory by supporting Sandy Bear alongside the CCF fundraiser.

Sandy Bear Children’s Bereavement Charity supports children and young people across Wales who are grieving the death of someone important to them. Being present at times of profound loss, and helping communities process grief with care and compassion, is at the heart of the charity’s work.

Sally Allen’s life touched many. The response to her passing has shown not only the depth of love felt for her, but the strength of communities when they come together in kindness. Through these acts of remembrance and generosity, her legacy will continue to make a difference to others during their darkest moments.

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Crime

Haverfordwest man denies historic rape charges involving underage girl

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Trial listed at Cardiff Crown Court for 2027

A HAVERFORDWEST man has denied a series of historic sexual offences against an underage girl and is due to stand trial at Cardiff Crown Court in 2027.

Lee Mahagan, aged 52, of High Street, Haverfordwest, has pleaded not guilty to four counts of rape and two counts of engaging in penetrative sexual activity with a child.

The charges relate to allegations involving a girl aged between 13 and 15, which are said to have occurred in Cardiff between 2009 and 2010.

The court was told that the case is expected to take around five days when it goes before a jury. A trial date has been set for January 25, 2027.

Mahagan was granted conditional bail by Judge Hywel James following a hearing at Cardiff Crown Court.

The defendant is represented by David Pinnell, while Daniel Jones is appearing for the prosecution.

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