SENEDD Members expressed grave concerns about the impact of the UK Government’s national insurance tax hike on GPs, universities and charities in Wales.

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth warned the rise in employer national insurance contributions from 13.8% to 15% in April will have a disproportionate impact in Wales.

He told the Senedd: “Labour are quick to accuse others of fantasy economics whilst their own plans represent nightmare economics for thousands of employers and employees.”

Raising concerns about the impact on job creation and wages, he said employment levels are at their lowest for almost a decade – lower than anywhere else in the UK.

He accused Labour of breaking a manifesto pledge as he pointed to an Office for Budgetary Responsibility (OBR) assessment that three quarters of the cost will be passed to workers.

Leading a debate on November 20, Mr ap Iorwerth called on the UK Treasury to fully cover the added cost to public sector employers in Wales.

He said: “It’s not the private sector only … bearing the brunt. Charities, GPs, universities – sectors already feeling the squeeze, to say the very least – have been taken to the brink.”

He pointed to “eye-watering” bills of £90,000 for some GPs, with the British Medical Association warning some surgeries could close as a consequence.

Mr ap Iorwerth said mental health charity Plattform faces a £250,000 annual bill and Welsh universities, “already crippled by financial challenges”, will face significant further pressures.

Plaid Cymru’s motion urged Welsh ministers to press the UK Government to apply a wider definition of the public sector workforce to include universities, GPs and charities.

Peter Fox, the Conservatives’ shadow finance secretary, similarly accused Labour of breaking a manifesto commitment not to raise tax on working people.

The former council leader said: “Time and time again – the chancellor went on TV and made the claim, only to u-turn after they got into power.”

Mr Fox, who represents Monmouth, said even a 1% rise in employer national insurance contributions for the public sector would cost Welsh taxpayers an extra £100m.

He told the Senedd: “The UK Government has said that it will provide funding to cover the cost of national insurance contributions for those workers.

“However, this will still come out of the taxpayer’s pocket … ultimately it is the taxpayers who are going to pay for the Chancellor’s tax increase.”

Luke Fletcher, Plaid Cymru’s shadow economy secretary, warned the national insurance rise will be a drag on an “already anaemic” Welsh jobs market.

His colleague Sioned Williams, who also represents South Wales West, described the chancellor’s “back-of-a-fag-packet” plans as senseless.

She raised concerns about six-figure increases in tax bills for charities including Tenovus, Marie Curie, Citizens Advice Cymru and the Wastesavers Charitable Trust.

Cefin Campbell, Plaid’ Cymru’s shadow education secretary, said the national insurance increase will cost Welsh universities an estimated extra £20m a year.

The Mid and West Wales MS warned: “Without a shadow of a doubt, these additional costs could push our higher education institutions over the precipice.”

Labour’s Hefin David said difficult decisions had to be made to fill a £22bn “black hole” left by the Tories but he rejected Plaid Cymru claims of a return to austerity.

Dr David told the Senedd: “Yes, tough decisions have to be made but I think that in the longer term, this is to everyone’s benefit.”

Andrew RT Davies, leader of the Conservative opposition, disputed the “incorrect” £22bn figure, saying the OBR found a £9bn gap.

Replying to the debate, Mark Drakeford stressed that neither he nor the Welsh Government has responsibility for national insurance contributions.

Wales’ finance secretary, who was appointed in September, criticised “fantasy economics” from opposition members on the Plaid Cymru and Conservative benches.

Deriding the “politics of the playground”, he said: “Both of them are willing to spend money on almost anything; neither of them are willing to raise the money necessary from anyone.”

Prof Drakeford said the chancellor returned national insurance broadly to where it had been as a share of gross domestic product for 13 of the 14 Conservative years.

The former First Minister pointed out that the UK Government offset national insurance rises on small employers by more than doubling the employment allowance.

He told the debating chamber or Siambr: “If you want to pay for things, you have to find the money to do so. That is what the chancellor had to do. That is how we will get the money that will come to public services here in Wales.”

Senedd Members voted 25-19 against Plaid Cymru’s motion.

LABOUR’S conference in Llandudno last weekend was an opportunity for the Party’s great and good to come together and tell each other how wonderfully things are going.

The key message was that, while the Labour Government in Cardiff Bay was nothing less than a roaring success, things could only get better with Labour governments at either end of the M4. Labour in Wales must hope that this last phrase sticks in the electorate’s consciousness and glosses over Welsh Labour’s problems.

There are plenty of those problems, although you’d be hard-pressed to identify any of them from the keynote speeches delivered to the faithful.

Speakers hit all the important notes:

• Labour was delivering more money to the Welsh Government to spend (big cheer).
• There would be money to spend on the NHS (bigger cheer).
• There were no more Conservative MPs from Wales in Westminster (ecstatic rapture).

And so on and so forth in all the key speeches.

PREACHING TO THE CHOIR

It’s only fair to begin with the big cheese himself, Sir Keir Starmer. Cheese is the right word. The Prime Minister recapped his October speech at Labour’s national conference, and he laid on added Welsh schtick with a trowel. Nye Bevan, the NHS, the Industrial Revolution, the sense of community. All his speech lacked was the Morriston Orpheus Choir humming “A Hyd a Nos” in the background.

Thankfully, as is the way things are nowadays, there were no big announcements in Keir Starmer’s speech. Its content had been well-trailed. Bashing the Tories while taking credit for their policies and adding the odd million here and there is enough for a Labour leader in Wales to get a rapturous reception. And he got one.

Eluned Morgan was more old school: “There’s a new Wales on the horizon, and I intend to lead us there,” the First Minister began.

She continued to explain that: “The people’s priorities are my priorities.

Improved health and social care, delivering future-proofed jobs and growth, higher standards in our schools and more social housing because your postcode should never determine your prospects, improving transport and keeping people in touch. New trains, a new bus bill, better roads.”

Nobody could disagree with those objectives. Nobody casting a more critical eye over them could help but wonder why it’s taken 25 years for the penny to drop.

The First Minister’s attempt to create some pithy soundbites was undermined by how she introduced them: “They offer soundbites – and we deliver sound policies. They sow division – we build unity. They promise walls – we build bridges. They complain – while we campaign.

And while they look backwards – we move forwards.”

It was a bit like Tony Blair. “Now is not the time for soundbites, but the hand of history is on out shoulders.”

STEVENS STANDS OUT

Jo Stevens, the Secretary of State for Wales, hit an altogether stronger note.

She announced £13 million to provide support for workers, families and businesses affected by the closure of the Tata Steel blast furnaces in her first address to the Welsh Labour Conference since Labour won a landslide General Election result in July.

The investment from the Transition Board, which will provide non-repayable grants of up to £10,000 to help workers and their families set up their own businesses, is part of a wider £26.5 million package committed by the UK Labour Government since taking office, and part of an £80 million commitment to fully fund the Transition Board and to support workers that came out of Labour’s Autumn Budget.

Jo Stevens developed her theme by attacking the Conservatives’ failure to bankroll a scheme they’d announced: “In October last year, the Tories had promised £80m to support workers and businesses in Port Talbot. Nine months later, they hadn’t delivered a single penny.

 “Now we know why – the £80 million was never there. It was one of a long list of unfunded spending commitments.

 “Today, I am announcing a £13 million fund to support existing and new businesses in Port Talbot and across our steel communities. And Labour’s first Budget confirmed that £80 million in full.”

The conference loved it all. But apart from Jo Stevens repeating an attack line that Labour had already developed in the preceding weeks, it was rather thin gruel, albeit enthusiastically delivered.

THE PARTY OF GOVERNMENT

Wales’s Transport Minister, Ken Skates, announced a “new” Bus Bill to re-regulate bus services and integrate train and bus timetables, tickets and routes. The inverted commas around the word “new” are advisable as this is a Bill that’s long been out for consultation. Councils have already outlined their responses to it, and it was one of his predecessor’s major pieces of legislation. When the Bill is finally published next March, it will be only four years since the commitment appeared in the 2021 Manifesto and seven years since the Welsh Government announced its intention to legislate.

Having announced £22m to cut waiting times just over a fortnight before the Labour conference, Health Minister Jeremy Miles announced a further £28m, which included £3m to shorten waiting lists for children awaiting neurodevelopmental assessments.

Remarkably, the entirely nonpartisan Welsh Government press office was on hand to announce these initiatives in almost identical terms to the Labour Party’s press releases on the same subjects and as they were made to the Party faithful. There is a separation between the party political activities of Welsh Government ministers on the one hand and Welsh Government actions on the other. While the lines have blurred over recent years, it is not the business of Welsh Government employees to assist Ministers with campaigning activities, such as a conference speech.

Labour is the Party of government in Wales, but it is not the Party of the Welsh Government.

LABOUR’S WELSH PROBLEM

In Westminster opposition, Labour made many of the right noises about doing right by Wales. Chief among those noises was sending Wales “£4bn” as a consequential payment for the HS2 project that the Conservatives (boo!) had denied Wales. There were other promises, too:

• Rejigging the basis upon which Westminster allocated money to the devolved governments.
• Making sure the Welsh Government regained control over the funding that had replaced the European Union’s money.
• Devolving more powers to the Welsh Government.

Big promises, all of them.

In the thrill of victory and delivering and taking the credit for projects launched by the Conservatives (boo!), those promises have vanished into talking shops and the language of “hard choices”.

And so, to make up for the fact that the Westminster Labour Government has left its Cardiff comrades in the same position as the Emperor wearing his new clothes, Labour’s conference speeches were long on triumphalism and mood without any sign of much that was new. 

Turnout in Wales on July 4 was down over 10.5%, and Labour’s share of the vote fell by 3.9%. Labour’s share of the General Election vote in Wales has only twice slipped below July’s level (in 2010 and 2015). Even in 2019, Labour polled better. In 1997, when Tony Blair’s New Labour swept the Conservatives from power almost as dramatically as in July, Labour won almost 55% of the vote in Wales.

Labour’s polling for the next Senedd election is even more dire than July’s outcome, with some polls showing support hovering around 30%. In 2026, the low turnout and divided vote that skewed General Election outcomes in Welsh constituencies could cause a very different outcome. Turnout in Welsh elections is often pitiful, and the new voting system could erode Labour’s dependable “red rosette on a donkey” vote.

Between now and May 2026, Labour must not only say what it wants to deliver but also get on with it. The lack of urgency about its previous Manifesto commitments and the ongoing omnishambles that is the Welsh NHS leave Eluned Morgan little room for manoeuvre.

In opposition, parties abuse the government of the day. In government, parties abuse the preceding government. In Wales, where Labour’s been in power for twenty-five years, the problem goes without saying.

THE SENEDD signed off on a 16% budget increase, with the Welsh Parliament set to expand to accommodate an additional 36 politicians from 2026.

Members voted 31-13 to approve the Senedd Commission’s £83.8m budget for 2025/26, which includes an extra £11.6m for the reforms, public-sector pay and infrastructure.

Hefin David described next year’s spending plans for the commission – which is responsible for support services and the Senedd estate – as a transformational, step-change budget.

The Caerphilly Senedd Member, who is the commissioner responsible for the budget, said the 16% uplift will cover a 60% increase in the size of the Senedd.

But the Conservatives criticised the “ballooning” costs, describing Senedd reform as the wrong priority while around one in five people in Wales are waiting for NHS treatment.

Leading a debate on November 20, Dr David said the budget for the 12 months from April will address four key pressures:

• Senedd reform;
• the ‘Bay 2032’ project looking at offices as the Tŷ Hywel lease runs down;
• critical infrastructure projects; and
• a 5% pay award for staff.

He said the £6.5m allocated to the reform programme includes costs for employing new staff, and reconfiguring the debating chamber and new members’ offices.

Dr David told the Senedd: “In these turbulent times strengthening a democracy is often a difficult but certainly noble endeavour.

“While I in no way devalue the objections of those opposed to reform, those members who have supported Senedd expansion have done so to build a stronger parliament for the people of Wales.”

Janet Finch-Saunders, the Conservative Senedd commissioner, said the budget reflects significant efforts to ensure effective management of public funds.

She told the Senedd that the costs compare favourably with the Scottish Parliament which is nearly £200,000 more expensive per member.

But she reiterated her party’s opposition to expansion, saying: “We still believe that these resources would be better allocated to essential public services, such as healthcare, education, our road infrastructure, social services – I could go on.”

Ms Finch-Saunders told the chamber that she had been inundated with messages from members of the public calling for a referendum on expansion.

Pointing to a 147% increase for Senedd reforms and related work, she said: “This, sadly, is not justified especially given the financial pressures facing public services in Wales.”

Under the Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act, the Welsh Parliament will grow from 60 to 96 members and adopt a new electoral system from 2026.

The legislation was passed in May, with a two-thirds supermajority voting in favour.

Peredur Owen Griffiths, who chairs the finance committee, which published a report on the spending plans, said a majority of committee members supported the budget.

But he cautioned that the commission could do more to show how it is driving efficiency savings, saying the corporate body should not be immune due to Senedd expansion.

Labour’s Mike Hedges, a finance committee member who also supported the budget plans, argued the commission would benefit from a flatter structure.

But, urging the First Minister to postpone reforms beyond 2026, he said: “I believe Senedd expansion is being rushed and we all know when something is rushed, mistakes are made.”