Two-thirds predict family sizes will shrink even further by 2040

NEW figures released by Fertility Family reveal that parts of Wales have seen some of the steepest declines in fertility rates across the UK, with the Isle of Anglesey recording a drop of more than 44% over the past 15 years.

The Beyond the Birth Rate report combines official birth statistics with survey data to explore why fewer people are choosing to have children – and why they’re waiting longer when they do.

Wales’ top ten fertility declines

The study identified the ten Welsh areas most affected by declining birth rates. The Isle of Anglesey tops the list with a fall of 44.21%, followed by Wrexham, Caerphilly and Merthyr Tydfil – all of which have seen declines of more than 27%.

Newport recorded the smallest decline in Wales, with a drop of just 8.6%.

How does the rest of the UK compare?

London has mirrored Wales’ dramatic decline, with boroughs such as Southwark also showing a 44.21% drop in fertility rates. However, some parts of England have been less affected.

Colchester has seen the smallest national drop, at just -3.95%, while other areas such as Runnymede (-5.19%), Lancaster (-6.04%), and Gravesham (-7.07%) have remained relatively stable.

Financial pressure tops list of reasons

The report suggests that the primary driver behind shrinking family sizes is economic hardship.

• 40% of people said financial stability was the key reason for delaying children.
• 23% described starting a family as simply unaffordable.
• 60% of respondents believe this financial strain is a major factor behind the rising age of first-time mothers.

Why are people waiting longer?

In addition to economic challenges, lifestyle and societal shifts are also playing a major role:

• 47% cited career ambitions and workplace pressures.
• 44% blamed difficulties in finding the right partner.
• 34% pointed to the housing crisis and lack of affordable homes.

These factors are leading to more people having children later in life – a decision which often reduces fertility and the total number of children they may have.

Smaller families likely the future

Over the past 15 years, the UK’s overall fertility rate has declined by 26.9%. That means for every two women of childbearing age, one fewer child is being born.

Looking ahead, 67% of people surveyed expect family sizes to shrink even further in the next 10 to 20 years.

The study also revealed:

• 40.7% believe more single parents will have children independently.
• 20.5% expect an increase in adoption and surrogacy.
• 14.9% foresee co-parenting arrangements becoming more common.
• A striking 47% said they believe more people will choose not to have children at all.

With both economic and social factors contributing to the trend, the report paints a clear picture: the traditional family model in the UK is evolving – and quickly.

FOUR men have been charged with conspiracy to commit burglary following a high-value break-in at an industrial estate in Aberystwyth.

The incident occurred at around 9:30pm on Saturday (Apr 12), when a large quantity of e-bikes—worth an estimated £150,000—was stolen from a property on the Glan Yr Afon Industrial Estate in Llanbadarn Fawr.

Gavin Johnson, 39, Keith Johnson, 32, Gareth Corbett, 36, and Wayne Dreisey, 40, all from the Birmingham area, have been charged with conspiracy to commit burglary.

They appeared before Swansea Magistrates’ Court on April 19 and have been remanded in custody to appear at Swansea Crown Court on May 19.

Another man, aged 33, was arrested on suspicion of burglary and has been released on bail while further enquiries continue.

Calls grow for licensing scheme amid enforcement concerns

NEW data has revealed the Welsh hotspots for illegal vape sales, with over 30,000 illicit and unregulated products seized in 2024 – the equivalent of one every 20 minutes.

The worst-affected area was Newport, where Newport City Council confiscated more than 21,000 illegal vapes last year – an increase of 173% compared to 2023. The city accounted for a third of all illegal vape seizures in Wales. Over the past three years, 49 premises closure orders have been issued in the area.

Flintshire recorded the second highest number of seizures, with 4,545 illicit vapes removed from sale – up 170% on the previous year.

The findings come from a Freedom of Information (FOI) request submitted to 108 local authorities by Vape Club, and are published in the 2025 Illegal Vapes Report. The research lays bare the scale of the UK’s growing illegal vape market.

Wales’ top five illegal vape hotspots in 2024

• Newport City Council: 21,169 devices seized
• Flintshire County Council: 4,545 devices seized
• Carmarthenshire County Council: 1,850 devices seized
• Gwynedd Council: 721 devices seized
• Blaenau Gwent County Borough Council: 607 devices seized

Despite 82 recorded instances of illegal vape sales in Wales last year, only five penalties were issued. Closure orders were served to just ten retailers – representing only 12% of reported cases. The figures have prompted growing concern over inadequate enforcement.

Across the UK, 1.2 million illegal vapes were seized in 2024 – a 44% increase from the previous year. That equates to two illegal vapes seized every minute.

Industry experts are calling for the introduction of a Vape Retailer and Distributor Licensing Scheme to help tackle the issue. Without stricter controls and additional resources for enforcement, they warn the illegal trade could surge – especially following the UK Government’s planned ban on disposable vapes this June.

Dan Marchant, Director at Vape Club, said:
“The real issue of illicit vape sales lies in the inadequate enforcement of current regulations and the weak penalties for offenders. With the disposable vape ban coming into force, we risk a flood of dangerous, unregulated products entering the UK, all because the core issue has not been addressed.

“This boils down to lacklustre fines and no structured funding for Trading Standards. That’s why we strongly support a robust retail and distribution licensing scheme, with revenues ringfenced for proactive enforcement.

“This funding could give Border Force the resources to stop more illegal products at the border, and allow Trading Standards to crack down on rogue retailers and impose meaningful penalties.”