Is Reform UK heading for the Senedd?

REFORM UK has shocked Westminster and sent tremors through political circles this week after securing its first-ever parliamentary by-election win in Runcorn and Helsby — by just six votes. Labour’s once-safe seat fell after a dramatic recount, and the result has triggered a wave of commentary and speculation across the UK.

But here in Wales, a bigger question now looms: is Reform on the march towards the Senedd?

Nigel Farage’s party isn’t stopping at parliamentary ambition. As celebrations broke out in Widnes and Greater Lincolnshire — where Dame Andrea Jenkyns swept into the mayoral office by over 40,000 votes — senior figures in Reform were already turning their attention to Wales.

A serious Senedd strategy

Reform UK is now openly targeting the 2026 Senedd elections. Their goal? To take advantage of the new electoral system and secure a sizeable bloc of seats in Cardiff Bay. With the chamber expanding from 60 to 96 members and moving to a closed proportional list system, the conditions are ripe for smaller parties to make major gains — especially those with growing national visibility and momentum.

Reform insiders have spoken of ambitions to win “20 to 40 seats” in the new Senedd. Their strategy includes setting up local associations, holding regional events across Wales, and recruiting candidates well ahead of the vote — a far more professional operation than in 2021, when they stood in just a few constituencies.

Crucially, the new system will reward strong second-place showings and broaden representation. With Reform finishing a close second to Labour in three major English mayoral contests this week, the signs are clear that their support base is not only wide but growing — particularly among those disillusioned with both Labour and the Conservatives.

Welsh political identity under pressure

In Wales, where national identity and devolution have traditionally shaped politics, Reform will face different challenges. But their messaging around immigration, cost of living, and public services has already struck a chord in Leave-voting and economically disadvantaged areas — including parts of South Wales, the North East, and coastal constituencies like Clwyd South and Delyn.

In those areas, Labour is watching nervously. Some internal polling, leaked to national media earlier this year, suggested that Reform could overtake Labour in parts of the former “red wall” in Wales. With support from both ex-Tories and working-class voters fed up with economic decline and political promises, Reform is pitching itself as the party of blunt answers and bold change.

Pembrokeshire in the frame?

So far, Reform has made limited inroads in West Wales — but that could change. Issues like NHS centralisation, rural crime, post-Brexit farming policy, and housing unaffordability have created fertile ground for anti-establishment sentiment.

Whether Reform can tap into that frustration depends on its ability to build local operations, recruit credible Welsh candidates, and engage seriously with devolved policy — not just reheated Westminster soundbites. That will be a major test for a party often accused of being too “English-focused.”

The verdict

Farage said this morning that Reform had “bitten quite hard” into Labour’s heartlands and claimed to have supplanted the Conservatives as the “main opposition party.” While that may be premature, what’s clear is that the political establishment is scrambling to respond to a new force that is no longer a protest vote.

In Wales, the challenge for Labour and Plaid Cymru is urgent. For now, Reform’s victories are in England — but their ambitions lie firmly across the border too.

Come 2026, Welsh voters may be offered something they haven’t seen before: Reform UK on the ballot for their Senedd. And based on this week’s results, it would be unwise to write them off.