News
Major polling shift as Labour faces wipeout in Wales
OPINION polling across Wales over the summer, carried out by Electoral Calculus, reveals a dramatic shift in Welsh political sentiment compared with July 2024.
The new data suggests that Labour’s stronghold in Wales could collapse, with Reform UK making sweeping gains across the country. The map shows a near-complete reversal of last year’s General Election results — transforming Labour red to Reform blue across most constituencies.

According to the projection, if a general election were held tomorrow, Reform UK would fall just short of an overall majority, potentially leading to a hung parliament.
Meanwhile, attention is turning to Senedd polling ahead of next May’s elections, with parties closely watching whether these Westminster trends begin to filter through to devolved voting intentions.
Full polling data and analysis can be viewed via Electoral Calculus: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Business
Welsh businesses secure £436m in export sales with government support
WELSH businesses have secured £436 million in new export sales over the past five years with support from the Welsh Government, the Cabinet Secretary for Economy Rebecca Evans said at the Explore Export Wales conference in Llandudno on Tuesday (Mar 18).
Exports account for more than a third of Wales’ GDP and remain central to the Welsh Government’s ambition to grow the economy and create new jobs.
Since the launch of the Export Action Plan in 2020, nearly 1,500 Welsh businesses have been supported to export for the first time or expand into new international markets. During that time the Welsh Government has organised 89 trade missions, taking 844 business representatives to markets around the world.
International Trade Advisors have also held around 6,000 face-to-face meetings with businesses and delivered more than 430 export market research projects. Over 600 overseas business development visits have been supported, including trips to Kenya, Vietnam, Argentina and South Korea.
The Export Cluster programme now provides peer-to-peer support across six priority sectors and has attracted more than 350 members. Meanwhile the New Exporter Programme has supported 68 businesses taking their first steps into international markets, with a sixth intake now open.
One company benefiting from the programme is Reacta Healthcare, a life sciences business based in north Wales. The firm develops specialist allergy diagnostic products used in clinical trials around the world.
Exports now account for 100 per cent of Reacta’s business. Over the past year the company has expanded its workforce from fifty to eighty employees and secured new clients in Europe and the United States.
The business is now preparing to supply these contracts over the next three years, representing significant growth in both volume and revenue. Reacta is also expanding its Deeside site by 50 per cent with a new facility next to its existing premises.
Belinda Mortell, Head of Commercial at Reacta, said the company’s expansion reflected growing global demand.
She said: “We have recently secured our largest customer contract to date, marking a significant milestone for the business. The growth we’ve seen over the past year, from expanding our team to opening a new facility, is a direct result of increasing international demand.
“The support we’ve received from the Welsh Government has been invaluable and has helped us enter new markets with confidence as we strengthen our international presence.”
Last week the Welsh Government also launched its trade missions programme for 2026-27, aimed at helping businesses showcase their products and services overseas.
The programme will focus on sectors including clean energy, advanced manufacturing, life sciences, creative industries and technology. Trade missions are planned across Europe, North America, Asia and the Middle East as Wales seeks to boost exports, investment and economic growth.
Rebecca Evans said: “Exporting makes a real difference to businesses across Wales, driving economic growth and creating jobs.
“That is why we are investing £3.5 million each year to support Welsh businesses on their export journeys.”
News
Migrants could wait up to 15 years for UK settlement under new immigration reforms
New ‘Earned Settlement’ system expected from April could replace traditional five-year route to permanent residency
THOUSANDS of migrants living and working in the UK could face waiting up to fifteen years before qualifying for permanent settlement under major immigration reforms expected to take effect from April 2026.
The UK Government plans to introduce a new “Earned Settlement” framework that would replace the traditional five-year route to Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR). The proposed system links settlement eligibility to economic contribution, income levels and integration into British society.
Under the proposals, the standard pathway to settlement for many migrants will increase to ten years. However, some applicants could qualify sooner while others may face significantly longer waits depending on their personal circumstances.
Immigration specialists say the reforms represent one of the most significant changes to the UK’s settlement system in decades.
Helena Sheizon, an immigration expert at Kadmos Immigration, said: “This reform represents a fundamental shift from a time-based route to permanent residence to one focused on earned contribution. It aims to reward economic participation and integration, but it also means thousands of people already on a path to settlement could face new conditions and longer waits if they do not meet the new criteria.”
Under the current immigration framework, many migrants on routes such as the Skilled Worker visa or family visas can apply for permanent residency after five years of lawful residence.
The proposed reforms would introduce a points-based settlement model. The time required before applying for ILR could vary depending on factors including income, employment history and compliance with immigration rules.
Government proposals suggest a ten-year baseline settlement route for most migrants. Individuals with very high earnings or exceptional contributions to the UK economy could qualify after around three years. Others with lower incomes or irregular employment histories could face qualifying periods of up to fifteen years or more.
The new framework moves away from a purely time-based system and instead requires migrants to effectively “earn” settlement through measurable contribution.
Sheizon added: “What makes this system distinctive is the idea of earning settlement through measurable contribution. People will need to demonstrate not just residence in the UK, but active economic engagement.”
Several key factors could affect how quickly someone qualifies for settlement under the new model. These include income levels, with higher taxable earnings potentially reducing the settlement timeline, as well as employment in public service sectors such as healthcare or education.
English language ability may also influence eligibility, while visa breaches, irregular entry or reliance on public funds could extend the time required before settlement can be granted.
In practice, this means two migrants arriving in the UK at the same time could reach settlement at very different points depending on their individual contribution profiles.
Some changes linked to the new system have already begun to take effect. These include higher English language requirements for several visa routes and increased income thresholds tied to visa eligibility.
The reforms are expected to affect a wide range of migrants currently living and working in the UK. Skilled workers and their dependents could face longer waits unless they meet higher earnings criteria, while family visa holders may encounter extended settlement timelines and stricter income requirements.
Lower-paid workers, particularly in sectors such as social care or middle-skilled roles, could face the longest qualifying periods.
The proposals follow the Government’s wider immigration strategy outlined in a recent White Paper and consultations carried out during late 2025. A formal Statement of Changes to the Immigration Rules is expected in March ahead of the planned launch of the new system in April.
Sheizon said the reforms could significantly alter long-term plans for migrants already living in Britain.
“The immigration reform expected from April 2026 marks a major turning point. The shift to an earned settlement model changes not only how long people must wait for permanent residence but also what they must do to achieve it,” she said.
“With these changes approaching, migrants and employers should review their settlement plans now and consider whether earlier applications may be possible.”
Crime
School threat fears grow across Wales as closures and lockdowns increase
CONCERNS are mounting over a growing number of school safety incidents across Wales after police enforced the closure of two Cardiff schools this week.
Llanishen High School and Eastern High School were closed on Monday (Mar 16) after South Wales Police received a report on Sunday evening. Officers said the decision was taken as a precaution while enquiries continue.
Authorities have not yet confirmed the nature of the report that prompted the closures, but the incident has raised wider questions about the number of schools being forced into lockdown or temporary closure following threats or safety concerns.
The Cardiff case is the latest in a series of incidents affecting schools across Wales over the past year.
Earlier this month, Ysgol Maesydderwen in Ystradgynlais was placed into lockdown after police received reports of threats of violence sent digitally. A seventeen-year-old boy was arrested in connection with the incident, which caused alarm among pupils and staff.
In February this year, Milford Haven School in Pembrokeshire went into lockdown after emergency services were called to a serious incident involving a pupil and a weapon. A fifteen-year-old boy was arrested on suspicion of attempted murder following the incident.
In another case, Ysgol Harri Tudur in Pembroke was placed in lockdown after threatening messages were received suggesting a pupil may have brought a knife onto the school site. Police attended while staff secured the school.
North Wales has also seen similar concerns. Ysgol y Grango in Wrexham was placed into lockdown after a threat was reported, with police attending while pupils were kept inside classrooms.
Another incident in November 2025 saw Dafen Community Primary School in Llanelli close for the day after online messages warned people would arrive at the school with knives. Police confirmed the closure was a precaution while the threats were investigated.
While many incidents ultimately prove to be hoaxes, rumours or isolated events, education leaders say the rapid spread of messages on social media has created new challenges for schools.
Threats or rumours shared on platforms such as Snapchat and WhatsApp can circulate quickly among pupils, sometimes triggering widespread concern before school staff have time to verify the information.
The issue has also drawn political attention.
Commenting on the latest Cardiff closures, the Welsh Conservative Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Education Natasha Asghar MS said: “This is a deeply concerning situation for parents, pupils and staff, and I hope the police can carry out a swift investigation to avoid further disruption to families.
“Teachers and pupils must feel safe in school, and incidents like this raise serious concerns about safety.
“The Welsh Conservatives would restore discipline by introducing automatic exclusions for pupils who carry weapons, helping create a safer environment for students and staff.”
Debate around school safety intensified following the stabbing attack at Ysgol Dyffryn Aman in Ammanford in April 2024, when two teachers and a pupil were seriously injured.
The teenager responsible was later convicted of attempted murder, prompting calls for stronger measures to prevent weapons being brought into schools.
Despite the recent incidents, education leaders stress that schools remain safe environments for the vast majority of pupils. However, the combination of online threats, heightened safeguarding rules and rapid information sharing among students means schools and police are increasingly taking precautionary measures to protect staff and children.
With investigations continuing into the Cardiff closures, parents and teachers across Wales will be watching closely to see whether the incidents represent a worrying trend or a series of isolated cases.
Cover image:
Amman Valley school, in Ammanford, Wales, went into lockdown over a stabbing incident in 2024 (Photo: PA)
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