News
Reform UK surges to seven-point lead ahead of Senedd election
Reform UK has opened up a seven-point lead over Labour in the latest polling for the Wales-wide Senedd election, with Plaid Cymru trailing by a single point, according to an exclusive Beaufort Research survey for Nation.Cymru.
The poll places Reform on 30%—up five points since the previous Beaufort poll in June—while Labour sits on 23%, down four points. Plaid Cymru stands at 22% (+1), the Conservatives at 11% (-2), the Green Party at 9% (+3), the Liberal Democrats at 4% (no change), and other parties at 1% (-1).
A seat projection using software developed for Cavendish Consulting suggests Reform would emerge as the largest party with 37 seats, followed by Plaid Cymru with 25, Labour with 24, the Conservatives with 7, the Green Party with 2, and the Liberal Democrats with 1. If the projection proves accurate, First Minister Eluned Morgan would not be re-elected to the Senedd.
Despite Reform’s lead, the party would not command enough seats to form a government outright. Analysts suggest the most likely outcome would be a partnership or agreement between Plaid Cymru and Labour. Constituency-level projections are detailed at the end of this article.
Regional and demographic variations
Support for parties varies significantly across Wales, with differences according to region, gender, age, social grade, and Welsh language ability.
For polling purposes, Wales was divided into three regions: North and Mid Wales; South West Wales and the Valleys; and Cardiff and South East Wales.
- North and Mid Wales: Reform 27%, Plaid Cymru 25%, Labour 16%, Conservative 13%, Green 13%, Liberal Democrat 5%, other parties 1%.
- South West Wales and Valleys: Reform 28%, Labour 26%, Plaid Cymru 25%, Conservative 10%, Green 7%, Lib Dem 3%, other parties 1%.
- Cardiff and South East Wales: Reform 37%, Labour 26%, Plaid Cymru 16%, Conservative 9%, Green 8%, other parties 0%.
Gender Differences
Men were slightly more likely to back Reform than women, with 32% of men supporting the party compared to 29% of women. Among women, the Green Party enjoyed stronger support at 12%.
Age breakdown
Support also varied across age groups. Among 16 to 34-year-olds, Labour led on 29%, Plaid Cymru on 26%, and Reform on 17%. In the 35–54 bracket, Reform led with 33%, while Labour and Plaid Cymru each had 21%. For voters aged 55 and over, Reform was on 34%, Labour 22%, and Plaid Cymru 22%.
Social grade influence
Social grade strongly influenced voting patterns. Among more affluent ABC1 voters, Labour and Plaid Cymru each polled 26%, with Reform on 22%. In contrast, among C2DE voters, Reform commanded 39%, far ahead of Labour on 20% and Plaid Cymru on 18%.
Welsh language impact
Welsh speakers overwhelmingly favoured Plaid Cymru at 45%, with Reform on just 19% and Labour 16%. Among non-Welsh speakers, Reform led on 33%, Labour on 25%, and Plaid Cymru on 16%.
Comparisons with other polls
The Beaufort Research figures contrast with last month’s YouGov poll for ITV Wales, which showed Plaid Cymru narrowly leading on 30%, followed by Reform on 29%, Labour 14%, and the Conservatives 11%.
Seat Projections
- Afan, Ogwr, Rhondda: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
- Bangor, Conwy, Mon: Plaid Cymru 2, Reform 2, Conservative 1, Labour 1
- Blaenau Gwent, Caerffili, Rhymni: Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 2, Reform 2
- Brycheiniog, Tawe, Nedd: Reform 3, Labour 1, Plaid Cymru 1, Lib Dem 1
- Caerdydd Ffynon Taf: Labour 2, Reform 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Green 1
- Caerdydd Penarth: Labour 2, Reform 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Green 1
- Casnewydd Islwyn: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
- Ceredigion, Penfro: Plaid Cymru 3, Reform 2, Conservative 1
- Clwyd: Reform 2, Conservative 2, Labour 1, Plaid Cymru 1
- Fflint, Wrecsam: Reform 2, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Conservative 1
- Gwynedd, Maldwyn: Plaid Cymru 4, Reform 2
- Gwyr, Abertawe: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
- Pen-y-bont, Bro Morgannwg: Reform 2, Labour 2, Conservative 1, Plaid Cymru 1
- Pontypridd, Cynon, Merthyr: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
- Sir Fynwy, Torfaen: Reform 2, Labour 2, Conservative 1, Plaid Cymru 1
- Sir Gaerfyrddin: Plaid Cymru 3, Reform 2, Labour 1
Polling Methodology
The headline figures are based on responses from 533 adults across Wales, interviewed online between 22 September and 12 October. Only those aged 16 and over who expressed a party preference and rated their certainty to vote in a Senedd election as 9 or 10 out of 10 were included. Respondents who were undecided, unlikely to vote, or less than fully certain were excluded.
Farming
Basic Payment Scheme 2025 balance paid to 95% of Welsh farmers
Final year of BPS as transition to Sustainable Farming Scheme begins
The WELSH Government says more than ninety-five per cent of farm businesses have now received their full or balance payment under the final year of the Basic Payment Scheme (BPS), ahead of the introduction of the new Sustainable Farming Scheme (SFS) in 2026.
Announcing the update on Friday (Dec 12), Deputy First Minister and Cabinet Secretary for Climate Change and Rural Affairs, Huw Irranca-Davies, confirmed that over 15,400 Welsh farm businesses have been paid £68.7m. This comes on top of the £160m issued in BPS advance payments since 14 October.
Final round of BPS payments
The Basic Payment Scheme, which has been the backbone of farm support in Wales for a decade, provides direct income support to help farmers plan and manage their businesses. BPS 2025 marks the last year in which full BPS payments will be made before the scheme begins to be phased out.
The Cabinet Secretary said officials would “continue to process the outstanding BPS 2025 claims as soon as possible,” adding that all but the most complex cases should be completed by 30 June 2026.
Payments issued today represent the main balance due to farmers following earlier advances, giving many businesses the cash flow they need during the quieter winter period—traditionally a challenging time in the agricultural calendar.
Shift to Sustainable Farming Scheme in 2026
From 1 January 2026, the Welsh Government will begin rolling out the Sustainable Farming Scheme, a major reform to how agricultural support is delivered. The SFS will reward farmers for environmental outcomes such as habitat management, carbon reduction and biodiversity improvements, alongside continued food production.
The government has argued that the new scheme is essential to meeting Wales’ climate and nature targets while ensuring long-term resilience in the sector. However, the transition has been closely watched by farming unions, who have raised concerns about the administrative burden, income stability, and the speed at which BPS is being phased out.
Mr Irranca-Davies reaffirmed the government’s stance, saying: “This government is steadfastly committed to supporting Welsh farmers to sustainably produce quality food. This is demonstrated today in our payment of the BPS 2025 balance payments and will continue throughout the transition period.”
Sector reaction
Farming unions are expected to scrutinise the detail of today’s announcement, particularly around remaining unpaid cases. Last year, late payments led to frustration in parts of the sector, with unions calling for greater certainty as the industry faces rising input costs, supply chain pressures and continued market volatility.
The move to the SFS remains one of the most significant agricultural policy changes in Wales since devolution. Ministers insist the shift is designed to support both food production and environmental stewardship, while critics warn the transition must not undermine farm viability—especially for family-run livestock farms that dominate rural areas such as Pembrokeshire, Ceredigion and Carmarthenshire.
What happens next
Farmers still awaiting their BPS 2025 balance will continue to be processed “as soon as possible”, the Welsh Government said. Officials will also publish updated guidance on the Sustainable Farming Scheme ahead of its launch.
The coming year will therefore become a pivotal moment for Welsh agriculture, as the long-standing BPS framework—which provided over £200m annually to Welsh farmers—makes way for a new results-based model that will shape the industry for decades to come.
News
Improved train timetable launches across Wales
Extra services, later trains and boosted Sunday routes as £800m rail investment takes effect
An improved train timetable has come into force across Wales today (Sunday, 14 December), with Transport for Wales (TfW) introducing more frequent services, stronger connections and additional late-night trains on key routes.
The winter timetable update brings one of the most substantial uplifts in recent years on the Wales and Borders network, forming part of the Welsh Government’s ongoing £800 million investment in brand-new rolling stock and reliability improvements.
More trains and later journeys
Among the upgrades, passengers will see:
- A new hourly additional service between Chester and Wrexham, effectively doubling the frequency on one of the region’s busiest commuter corridors.
- An extra train in each direction every day on the Heart of Wales line between Swansea and Shrewsbury.
- Three later last trains from Cardiff to Treherbert, Aberdare and Merthyr Tydfil, supporting shift workers and the night-time economy.
- A new hourly Sunday service on the Coryton line in Cardiff.
Cabinet Secretary for Transport and North Wales, Ken Skates, said improved connectivity was “absolutely vital” for economic growth and passenger confidence.
“These changes will make a real difference to customers, who will benefit from more services and greater connectivity,” he said. “This has been made possible by our £800m investment in brand-new trains for the Wales and Borders network.
“We will see the doubling of trains between Wrexham and Chester and a later service from the capital to valley communities. In South Wales, people will continue to benefit from simpler, fairer fares through TfW’s Pay As You Go service, and its forthcoming introduction in North Wales will help even more passengers access easy, transparent pricing.”
Full details of the updated timetable are available at: tfw.wales/service-status/timetables
News
Wrecked guard boat still under watch off north Pembrokeshire coast
Tidal changes monitored after dramatic early-morning rescue
A GUARD VESSEL that ran aground off the north Pembrokeshire coast in the early hours of Thursday morning (Dec 11) remains under close observation as tides continue to shift.
The Resolute, a 24-metre guard boat understood to be working for an offshore wind project off the Irish coast, had been sheltering in worsening weather when she was pushed onto rocks near Aber Hywel, Dinas, shortly after 3:25am.
Four crew members were onboard when the vessel grounded in rough seas and a strong southerly wind.

Major rescue effort launched
The crew issued an emergency alert, prompting a full multi-agency response.
A coastguard rescue helicopter, both Fishguard RNLI lifeboats, and coastguard teams from Fishguard and St Davids were sent to the scene.
Turbulent air made a winch rescue impossible and Fishguard’s all-weather lifeboat was unable to get close due to cliffs and submerged hazards. The inshore lifeboat was instead deployed to attempt a transfer in extremely challenging conditions.
During the evacuation, the third crew member descending to the vessel’s life raft slipped, fell into the water and was swept away. Speaking afterwards, RNLI crew member Cedwyn Rogers said the team immediately switched into “hyper-focused” mode as training took over.
Despite the casualty drifting, helm Warren Bean — a volunteer with more than 30 years’ RNLI experience — manoeuvred the lifeboat alongside, allowing crew to haul the man to safety. The remaining crew member was then retrieved, and all four were taken aboard the all-weather lifeboat and brought ashore to Fishguard.
All rescue units were later stood down.
Vessel still stranded and taking on water
The Herald understands that the Resolute remained aground on the rocks yesterday and was taking on water. The crew were later assisted back onboard by a local fisherman to assess damage on behalf of the vessel’s operators.
Management representatives from Ireland were due to arrive to draw up a recovery plan, including arrangements to remove fuel to prevent any potential environmental impact.
Further inspections have been taking place today as the team evaluates the next steps.
Coastguard statement
A spokesperson for HM Coastguard said: “At 3.28am on Thursday morning, HM Coastguard was made aware of a vessel with four persons onboard aground on rocks at Fishguard, Pembrokeshire. RNLI lifeboats and coastguard rescue teams from Fishguard and St Davids were sent to the scene. The four people aboard were rescued by lifeboat, and the helicopter was stood down. The vessel, which is still aground, is being monitored as tidal conditions change.”
-
Crime5 days agoPhillips found guilty of raping baby in “worst case” judge has ever dealt with
-
Crime4 days agoKilgetty scaffolder sentenced after driving with cocaine and in system
-
Crime4 days agoHousing site director sentenced after failing to provide breath sample following crash
-
Crime4 days agoMotorist banned for three years after driving with cannabis in system
-
Education3 days agoTeaching assistant struck off after asking pupil for photos of her body
-
News6 days agoJury retires tomorrow in harrowing Baby C rape trial
-
Crime4 days agoMilford Haven pensioner denies exposure charges
-
Local Government6 days agoNew defamation row erupts after anonymous website targets Herald editor









