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Reform UK surges to seven-point lead ahead of Senedd election

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Reform UK has opened up a seven-point lead over Labour in the latest polling for the Wales-wide Senedd election, with Plaid Cymru trailing by a single point, according to an exclusive Beaufort Research survey for Nation.Cymru.

The poll places Reform on 30%—up five points since the previous Beaufort poll in June—while Labour sits on 23%, down four points. Plaid Cymru stands at 22% (+1), the Conservatives at 11% (-2), the Green Party at 9% (+3), the Liberal Democrats at 4% (no change), and other parties at 1% (-1).

A seat projection using software developed for Cavendish Consulting suggests Reform would emerge as the largest party with 37 seats, followed by Plaid Cymru with 25, Labour with 24, the Conservatives with 7, the Green Party with 2, and the Liberal Democrats with 1. If the projection proves accurate, First Minister Eluned Morgan would not be re-elected to the Senedd.

Despite Reform’s lead, the party would not command enough seats to form a government outright. Analysts suggest the most likely outcome would be a partnership or agreement between Plaid Cymru and Labour. Constituency-level projections are detailed at the end of this article.

Regional and demographic variations

Support for parties varies significantly across Wales, with differences according to region, gender, age, social grade, and Welsh language ability.

For polling purposes, Wales was divided into three regions: North and Mid Wales; South West Wales and the Valleys; and Cardiff and South East Wales.

  • North and Mid Wales: Reform 27%, Plaid Cymru 25%, Labour 16%, Conservative 13%, Green 13%, Liberal Democrat 5%, other parties 1%.
  • South West Wales and Valleys: Reform 28%, Labour 26%, Plaid Cymru 25%, Conservative 10%, Green 7%, Lib Dem 3%, other parties 1%.
  • Cardiff and South East Wales: Reform 37%, Labour 26%, Plaid Cymru 16%, Conservative 9%, Green 8%, other parties 0%.

Gender Differences
Men were slightly more likely to back Reform than women, with 32% of men supporting the party compared to 29% of women. Among women, the Green Party enjoyed stronger support at 12%.

Age breakdown
Support also varied across age groups. Among 16 to 34-year-olds, Labour led on 29%, Plaid Cymru on 26%, and Reform on 17%. In the 35–54 bracket, Reform led with 33%, while Labour and Plaid Cymru each had 21%. For voters aged 55 and over, Reform was on 34%, Labour 22%, and Plaid Cymru 22%.

Social grade influence
Social grade strongly influenced voting patterns. Among more affluent ABC1 voters, Labour and Plaid Cymru each polled 26%, with Reform on 22%. In contrast, among C2DE voters, Reform commanded 39%, far ahead of Labour on 20% and Plaid Cymru on 18%.

Welsh language impact
Welsh speakers overwhelmingly favoured Plaid Cymru at 45%, with Reform on just 19% and Labour 16%. Among non-Welsh speakers, Reform led on 33%, Labour on 25%, and Plaid Cymru on 16%.

Comparisons with other polls
The Beaufort Research figures contrast with last month’s YouGov poll for ITV Wales, which showed Plaid Cymru narrowly leading on 30%, followed by Reform on 29%, Labour 14%, and the Conservatives 11%.

Seat Projections

  • Afan, Ogwr, Rhondda: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
  • Bangor, Conwy, Mon: Plaid Cymru 2, Reform 2, Conservative 1, Labour 1
  • Blaenau Gwent, Caerffili, Rhymni: Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 2, Reform 2
  • Brycheiniog, Tawe, Nedd: Reform 3, Labour 1, Plaid Cymru 1, Lib Dem 1
  • Caerdydd Ffynon Taf: Labour 2, Reform 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Green 1
  • Caerdydd Penarth: Labour 2, Reform 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Green 1
  • Casnewydd Islwyn: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
  • Ceredigion, Penfro: Plaid Cymru 3, Reform 2, Conservative 1
  • Clwyd: Reform 2, Conservative 2, Labour 1, Plaid Cymru 1
  • Fflint, Wrecsam: Reform 2, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Conservative 1
  • Gwynedd, Maldwyn: Plaid Cymru 4, Reform 2
  • Gwyr, Abertawe: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
  • Pen-y-bont, Bro Morgannwg: Reform 2, Labour 2, Conservative 1, Plaid Cymru 1
  • Pontypridd, Cynon, Merthyr: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
  • Sir Fynwy, Torfaen: Reform 2, Labour 2, Conservative 1, Plaid Cymru 1
  • Sir Gaerfyrddin: Plaid Cymru 3, Reform 2, Labour 1


Polling Methodology
The headline figures are based on responses from 533 adults across Wales, interviewed online between 22 September and 12 October. Only those aged 16 and over who expressed a party preference and rated their certainty to vote in a Senedd election as 9 or 10 out of 10 were included. Respondents who were undecided, unlikely to vote, or less than fully certain were excluded.

 

News

Salmon face extinction in Welsh rivers by 2030, report warns

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Environment watchdog says Wales is at a “critical tipping point” as nature declines faster than it can recover

SALMON could disappear from some Welsh rivers within the next five years, according to a stark new assessment of the nation’s environment.

The warning comes in the State of Natural Resources Report 2025, published by Natural Resources Wales (NRW), which concludes that Wales is degrading its natural resources more quickly than they can be replenished.

NRW says nearly one in five species in Wales is now at risk of extinction, with freshwater ecosystems among the most pressured. Atlantic salmon, already in long-term decline, are highlighted as being particularly vulnerable, with some river systems potentially losing the species altogether by 2030 if current trends continue.

The report describes the environment as being under “sustained and intensifying pressure”, driven by the combined effects of climate change, pollution, habitat loss and unsustainable land use. It also states that Wales is consuming more than its fair share of global natural resources, placing further strain on already fragile ecosystems.

One of the most concerning findings is that there has been no overall improvement in the resilience of Wales’ freshwater environments since 2020. Only around 40 per cent of water bodies are currently achieving what is classified as “good status”, while fish populations and river habitats continue to deteriorate.

Speaking after the report’s publication, NRW chair Neil Sachdev said restoring nature could not be left to environmental bodies alone.

“Our report shows that restoring nature is a whole-society challenge,” he said. “It demands collective ownership across public bodies, businesses, communities and citizens.

“This is not just a warning about our future; it is a reckoning with our present. If we act now, with urgency and shared ownership, Wales can lead not just in ambition, but by delivering the scale of transformation the nation needs.”

The report argues that avoiding a deepening environmental and climate crisis will require fundamental changes to how people live, including how homes are heated, how food is produced and consumed, how people travel, and how land is managed.

Despite the bleak assessment, NRW notes that some progress has been made since its previous major report six years ago. Peatland restoration projects, tighter air-quality legislation, the Sustainable Farming Scheme and the Wales Metal Mines Programme are cited as targeted interventions beginning to address long-standing problems.

Commenting on the findings, Derek Walker, the Future Generations Commissioner for Wales, warned that environmental failure would hit the poorest communities hardest.

“Nature is one of our most powerful allies – preventing flooding, reducing pollution and protecting our health,” he said. “Without urgent, coordinated action to halt and reverse this decline, we are quite literally putting lives at risk unnecessarily.”

He pointed to nature-based solutions already being used in Wales, from urban green roofs to seagrass restoration, and said every part of the public sector needed to play a role in unlocking their potential.

Responding on behalf of the Welsh Government, Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies said the report would play a key role in shaping future policy.

“Protecting and enhancing nature is essential for people today and for future generations,” he said. “Wales has made real progress, but we need to go further again.

“This report sets out how we can work together to restore nature, tackle pollution and build resilience to climate change. The Welsh Government will lead this work alongside partners across the public sector, business and communities to turn evidence into meaningful action.”

For rivers across West Wales, including those once famed for their salmon runs, the report makes clear that time is now a critical factor — with decisive action needed if iconic species are to be saved from disappearing altogether.

 

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Health

‘Parking fine or miss my appointment’ say patients pressure mounts at hospitals

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From sleeping on chairs to parking fines, patients say everyday barriers are pushing the NHS to breaking point

PATIENTS across West Wales are describing a health service under such strain that some say they now expect to be penalised simply for trying to access care.

At Glangwili Hospital, stories of patients sleeping on chairs for days due to a lack of beds have been accompanied by growing frustration over issues that begin long before anyone reaches a ward — including parking, access, and the sheer difficulty of getting through the hospital doors.

One disabled patient said they had resigned themselves to receiving a £25 parking fine in order to attend hospital appointments.

“I now accept I will be fined,” they said. “Parking is impossible, but it’s that or miss my appointment. I am too disabled to park miles away and the disabled spaces are always full.”

Others have described spending days in A&E or side rooms, unable to lie down, while waiting for a bed to become available. One patient admitted on New Year’s Day with pneumonia said they slept in a chair for four nights without a pillow or blanket before being moved, only to later discover they also had flu and should have been isolated sooner.

Across social media and in correspondence with the Herald, patients and families repeatedly stress that frontline NHS staff are not to blame — instead pointing to a system that they say is buckling under years of structural strain.

Glangwili, the largest hospital managed by Hywel Dda University Health Board, serves Carmarthenshire and is home to the county’s only accident and emergency department following the closure of A&E at Prince Philip Hospital. That closure, along with reductions in services elsewhere, is frequently cited by patients as a turning point.

Several people said the loss of local A&E and cottage hospitals has forced more patients into already stretched units, increasing ambulance reliance and long-distance travel — particularly difficult in a largely rural region.

Further west, uncertainty over services at Withybush Hospital continues to fuel anxiety, especially given the scale of reinforced autoclaved aerated concrete (RAAC) identified across the site.

Hywel Dda has acknowledged that almost 90% of Withybush is affected by RAAC, while Glangwili itself is the oldest acute hospital in Wales. The health board says more than £50 million has been spent on the two hospitals in recent years, largely to address critical safety and infrastructure risks rather than expand capacity.

Patients, however, question where that money is felt on the ground.

Some have criticised NHS procurement and management structures, while others point to social care as the missing piece. Repeated comments highlight the lack of care packages and closed care homes, which many believe are leaving medically fit patients unable to be discharged — effectively blocking beds and creating bottlenecks throughout the system.

“There’s nowhere for people to go,” one reader said. “Until social care is sorted, nothing will change.”

Concerns have also been raised about staff morale, with some alleging bullying cultures and burnout contributing to recruitment and retention problems. Again, blame is consistently directed upward rather than at nurses, doctors or porters.

Behind it all looms the long-promised new ‘super hospital’ for Carmarthenshire — first discussed in 2006 and formally launched in 2018. Eight years on, construction has yet to begin, and public confidence in the project is fading.

While Hywel Dda and the Welsh Government insist improvements are under way — including additional funding to expand capacity at Glangwili and improvements to patient experience — many patients say their reality feels far removed from official assurances.

For those attending appointments, sleeping in chairs, or weighing up a parking fine against missing care, the crisis is no longer abstract.

“It’s not politics,” one patient said. “It’s whether you get treated — and how.”

 

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Crime

Two arrested after high-value shoplifting incident in Kilgetty

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TWO men have been arrested on suspicion of shoplifting following a rapid police response to a reported high-value theft at a supermarket in Kilgetty.

Dyfed-Powys Police said officers were called to the Co-op store at around 3.35pm on Wednesday (Jan 28), after a report that a large quantity of alcohol and other items had been stolen.

Using information provided by the caller, Roads Policing Unit officers worked closely with control room staff to identify a vehicle believed to be involved. Several patrol cars were deployed, and the vehicle was located a short time later travelling east.

Police said the safety of all those involved was treated as a priority, with specialist Tactical Pursuit and Containment (TPAC) advice obtained while officers maintained constant observation of the vehicle.

The car was brought to a safe stop on a back road approaching Hendy, involving three Roads Policing Unit vehicles. No injuries or damage were reported.

Following roadside checks, two men — aged 67 and 46 — were arrested on suspicion of theft from a shop.

Both remain in police custody while enquiries continue.

Police said the swift response helped prevent further offending and demonstrated the effectiveness of specialist roads policing officers acting on real-time intelligence.

 

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