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Reform UK surges to seven-point lead ahead of Senedd election

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Reform UK has opened up a seven-point lead over Labour in the latest polling for the Wales-wide Senedd election, with Plaid Cymru trailing by a single point, according to an exclusive Beaufort Research survey for Nation.Cymru.

The poll places Reform on 30%—up five points since the previous Beaufort poll in June—while Labour sits on 23%, down four points. Plaid Cymru stands at 22% (+1), the Conservatives at 11% (-2), the Green Party at 9% (+3), the Liberal Democrats at 4% (no change), and other parties at 1% (-1).

A seat projection using software developed for Cavendish Consulting suggests Reform would emerge as the largest party with 37 seats, followed by Plaid Cymru with 25, Labour with 24, the Conservatives with 7, the Green Party with 2, and the Liberal Democrats with 1. If the projection proves accurate, First Minister Eluned Morgan would not be re-elected to the Senedd.

Despite Reform’s lead, the party would not command enough seats to form a government outright. Analysts suggest the most likely outcome would be a partnership or agreement between Plaid Cymru and Labour. Constituency-level projections are detailed at the end of this article.

Regional and demographic variations

Support for parties varies significantly across Wales, with differences according to region, gender, age, social grade, and Welsh language ability.

For polling purposes, Wales was divided into three regions: North and Mid Wales; South West Wales and the Valleys; and Cardiff and South East Wales.

  • North and Mid Wales: Reform 27%, Plaid Cymru 25%, Labour 16%, Conservative 13%, Green 13%, Liberal Democrat 5%, other parties 1%.
  • South West Wales and Valleys: Reform 28%, Labour 26%, Plaid Cymru 25%, Conservative 10%, Green 7%, Lib Dem 3%, other parties 1%.
  • Cardiff and South East Wales: Reform 37%, Labour 26%, Plaid Cymru 16%, Conservative 9%, Green 8%, other parties 0%.

Gender Differences
Men were slightly more likely to back Reform than women, with 32% of men supporting the party compared to 29% of women. Among women, the Green Party enjoyed stronger support at 12%.

Age breakdown
Support also varied across age groups. Among 16 to 34-year-olds, Labour led on 29%, Plaid Cymru on 26%, and Reform on 17%. In the 35–54 bracket, Reform led with 33%, while Labour and Plaid Cymru each had 21%. For voters aged 55 and over, Reform was on 34%, Labour 22%, and Plaid Cymru 22%.

Social grade influence
Social grade strongly influenced voting patterns. Among more affluent ABC1 voters, Labour and Plaid Cymru each polled 26%, with Reform on 22%. In contrast, among C2DE voters, Reform commanded 39%, far ahead of Labour on 20% and Plaid Cymru on 18%.

Welsh language impact
Welsh speakers overwhelmingly favoured Plaid Cymru at 45%, with Reform on just 19% and Labour 16%. Among non-Welsh speakers, Reform led on 33%, Labour on 25%, and Plaid Cymru on 16%.

Comparisons with other polls
The Beaufort Research figures contrast with last month’s YouGov poll for ITV Wales, which showed Plaid Cymru narrowly leading on 30%, followed by Reform on 29%, Labour 14%, and the Conservatives 11%.

Seat Projections

  • Afan, Ogwr, Rhondda: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
  • Bangor, Conwy, Mon: Plaid Cymru 2, Reform 2, Conservative 1, Labour 1
  • Blaenau Gwent, Caerffili, Rhymni: Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 2, Reform 2
  • Brycheiniog, Tawe, Nedd: Reform 3, Labour 1, Plaid Cymru 1, Lib Dem 1
  • Caerdydd Ffynon Taf: Labour 2, Reform 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Green 1
  • Caerdydd Penarth: Labour 2, Reform 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Green 1
  • Casnewydd Islwyn: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
  • Ceredigion, Penfro: Plaid Cymru 3, Reform 2, Conservative 1
  • Clwyd: Reform 2, Conservative 2, Labour 1, Plaid Cymru 1
  • Fflint, Wrecsam: Reform 2, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Conservative 1
  • Gwynedd, Maldwyn: Plaid Cymru 4, Reform 2
  • Gwyr, Abertawe: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
  • Pen-y-bont, Bro Morgannwg: Reform 2, Labour 2, Conservative 1, Plaid Cymru 1
  • Pontypridd, Cynon, Merthyr: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
  • Sir Fynwy, Torfaen: Reform 2, Labour 2, Conservative 1, Plaid Cymru 1
  • Sir Gaerfyrddin: Plaid Cymru 3, Reform 2, Labour 1


Polling Methodology
The headline figures are based on responses from 533 adults across Wales, interviewed online between 22 September and 12 October. Only those aged 16 and over who expressed a party preference and rated their certainty to vote in a Senedd election as 9 or 10 out of 10 were included. Respondents who were undecided, unlikely to vote, or less than fully certain were excluded.

Health

Senedd backs bill to create smoke-free generation and curb youth vaping

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A LANDMARK BILL aimed at creating Wales’ first smoke-free generation has been backed by Members of the Senedd on Tuesday (Dec 9).

The Tobacco and Vapes Bill — which applies across all four UK nations — will make it illegal for anyone born on or after 1 January 2009 to purchase tobacco products. The legislation has already passed the House of Commons and is currently being considered by the House of Lords.

Mental Health and Wellbeing Minister Sarah Murphy welcomed the Senedd’s vote on the legislative consent motion, describing the Bill as vital to protecting young people from a lifetime of nicotine addiction. Ahead of the debate, she met school children who shared a poem they had written about a smoke-free future, along with pledges of support gathered from their peers.

Wales has already led the UK in tightening smoking laws, introducing restrictions in outdoor public spaces — including hospital grounds, school grounds and playgrounds — to reduce exposure to second-hand smoke, particularly for children.

Sarah Murphy said: “This is a historic day for public health in Wales. Despite real progress in reducing smoking levels, tobacco remains one of the leading causes of preventable disease and premature death. The Tobacco and Vapes Bill gives us a unique opportunity to tackle smoking and the growing issue of youth vaping, and to significantly improve public health in Wales and the wider UK.”

Wales’ Chief Medical Officer, Professor Isabel Oliver, added: “Tobacco addiction kills thousands of people in Wales every year and continues to drive health inequalities. This Bill offers a once-in-a-generation chance to break that cycle and protect future generations from a product that has caused immeasurable harm.”

The Bill will introduce tougher rules around vapes, including stricter advertising controls to prevent products being marketed to children. It will also introduce a new licensing scheme for anyone wishing to sell tobacco or vaping products, giving enforcement officers stronger tools to tackle illegal sales.

Trading Standards Wales will receive more than £650,000 from the Welsh Government over the next three years to support implementation, including the recruitment and training of five apprentices to assist with enforcement operations.

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News

Bus services to return to public control across Wales

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BUS services in Wales are set for their biggest transformation in a generation after the Senedd today passed a landmark Bill bringing routes back under public control.

The Bus Services (Wales) Bill will overhaul the way local bus networks are planned and delivered, giving the public sector far greater influence over how services run in both rural and urban communities. Ministers say the reforms will put passengers first by creating a network that is reliable, affordable and easier to navigate.

Working alongside local authorities, Corporate Joint Committees, bus operators, unions and the public, the Welsh Government and Transport for Wales will use local knowledge to design services that better reflect community needs. The long-term ambition is a fully integrated system offering one network, one timetable and one ticket across the whole of Wales.

The Bill also aims to tackle social isolation, cut transport emissions and lay the foundations for a modern, joined-up public transport system with simpler timetables and better access.

Cabinet Secretary for Transport and North Wales, Ken Skates, described the Bill’s approval as a “historic day” for Welsh public transport.

“This is a Bill that will transform the way bus services are delivered here in Wales, putting people and communities first with reliable, affordable and easy-to-use joined-up services,” he said.

“I understand this is a big change for the industry and will take time to implement across Wales, but the change is long overdue, and I’m excited about what we can deliver for the people of Wales by working in collaboration.”

The Welsh Government plans to introduce the reforms in phases:

  • South West Wales – 2027
  • North Wales – 2028
  • South East Wales – 2029
  • Mid Wales – 2030

The legislation marks a major step toward creating a fairer, greener and more connected transport system for Wales.

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Crime

Phillips found guilty of raping baby in “worst case” judge has ever dealt with

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Baby’s mother cleared as judge says case “shaken me to my core”

CHRISTOPHER PHILLIPS has been found guilty of the most serious offences in the devastating case of seven-week-old Baby C, including multiple counts of penetration and causing grievous bodily harm with intent.

The baby’s mother, who cannot be named, has been cleared of every charge, including allegations that she failed to protect her child.

The verdicts were delivered this afternoon (Dec 9) at Swansea Crown Court following a harrowing three-week trial.

Following the verdicts, Judge Paul Thomas KC delivered an emotional statement rarely heard from the bench. He told the courtroom: “In my over forty years of experience, this has been the most distressing case I have ever had to deal with.

“This has truly shaken me to my core.”

Turning to the jury, he said: “I would like to show my admiration to you all. I appreciate the toll this may have had on your mental health. You are a testament to our jury system. Thank you for all of your great effort.”

Judge Thomas ordered a pre-sentence report and requested an updated assessment of Baby C’s current physical and psychological health following the injuries he sustained.

He also directed that a psychiatric evaluation be prepared on Phillips to determine the level of danger he poses and to assist in setting the appropriate sentence.

He warned Phillips that he is facing “an extremely long prison sentence”.

Phillips will also be required to sign the Sex Offenders Register within three days of arriving in prison.

The jury’s verdicts confirm Phillips was responsible for the catastrophic injuries inflicted on Baby C in January 2021, including a bleed on the brain, multiple fractures, severe bruising, blunt-force trauma to a testicle and anal injuries described in court as “gaping”.

Medical specialists told the court they had administered morphine to a baby so young only “a handful of times” in their careers.

A sentencing will take place on January 16.

He was taken to prison.

Additional reporting by Rieve Nesbitt-Marr

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