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Politics

‘Lazy voters led to Conservative win ‘

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David Cameron: Helped to victory by negative campaign

David Cameron: Helped to victory
by negative campaign

SHY TORIES’ were not responsible for David Cameron’s shock majority in the 2015 Genereal Elections, according to the respected polling analysts responsible for a new study of the election.
Instead, the pollsters claim that around 10% of people who said that they would be voting Labour in the build-up failed to do so.
It is a commonly held belief that people who are unwilling to express a political opinion are more closely aligned with the ideologies of the Conservative Party. However, analysts said that a last-minute drift away from Labour, partially as a result of an intensive ‘negative’ advertising campaign by the Tories, was far more influential.
Robert Worcester and fellow analysts from Mori, who along with other opinion polls were widely accused of misreading public opinion back in May, claimed that if that 10% had voted, then there would have been a hung parliament.
Nearly all of those who said that they would vote Conservative went on to do so, Mr Worcester added.
These claims are explored in greater depth in a study ‘Explaining Cameron’s Comeback’ which was recently published.
Also highlighted were Conservative gains from the Liberal Democrats, which accounted for 27 of their seats, and Scottish Labour’s catastrophic wipeout at the hands of the SNP.
Another of the study’s authors, Roger Mortimore, Professor of Public Opinion and Political Analysis at King’s College, London, said: “What really happened was that the Conservatives and Labour were in a draw – stalemate. Neither of them landed a punch on each other.
“But at the same time the Conservatives beat the Liberal Democrats and the SNP beat Labour.”
“Those 27 gains are the difference between a hung parliament and the Conservative majority they actually got. That is why we now have a Conservative majority Government.”
Mr Mortimore also suggested that it would be ‘very hard’ for Labour to regain a majority unless they overturned the SNP majority in Scotland.
Paul Baines suggested that the negative campaign run by the Conservatives, which stoked fears in middle England of a Scottish party being in partial control of England, was another major reason for their success.
Suggesting that evidence showed that people gave more credence to a negative campaign, Mr Baines said: “ Most people thought that the Conservatives used the most negative campaign – and of course, they did.”
Mark Gill said the two key tasks facing Jeremy Corbyn’s party were to rebuild in Scotland and take seats from the Conservatives before suggesting that they were nowhere near achieving either of these aims.
“Jeremy Corbyn has not started well amongst the general population,” he added, suggesting that the image of the Labour party had deteriorated, and was now seen as divided.
Plaid Cymru’s failure to take more seats in spite of Leanne Wood’s participation in televised debates was down to much of that exposure being in places (like England) where Plaid Cymru candidates were thin on the ground.
“It wasn’t really new for Welsh voters to see Leanne Wood,” he commented.

 

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Mandelson quits Lords amid police probe over Epstein links

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Peter Mandelson has announced he will retire from the House of Lords with immediate effect, as mounting political and legal pressure grows over claims he shared sensitive government information with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Parliamentary officials confirmed that Peter Mandelson formally notified the Clerk of the Parliaments of his decision, ending his membership of the upper chamber from Tuesday (Feb 4).

The move follows reports that the Metropolitan Police Service is reviewing allegations of possible misconduct in public office connected to emails said to have been forwarded to Epstein while Mandelson was business secretary during the 2008–09 financial crisis.

Downing Street has confirmed that material has been passed to police after an initial Cabinet Office review.

Government fury

LONDON, ENGLAND – JANUARY 19: Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer delivers a statement in the media briefing room of 9 Downing Street in central London, after US president Donald Trump’s threats to ramp up tariffs until a deal is reached for the US to buy Greenland, at Downing Street on January 19, 2026 in London, England. (Photo by Jordan Pettitt – WPA Pool/Getty Images)

Prime Minister Keir Starmer told cabinet colleagues Mandelson had “let his country down”, according to No 10, and officials are now drafting legislation that could strip him of his peerage entirely.

Removing a life peer is rare and would require an Act of Parliament.

If passed, Mandelson would lose the title “Lord” altogether — an extraordinary step that has only been considered in the most serious cases.

Senior ministers have described the alleged passing-on of market-sensitive government discussions as “disgraceful” and a “betrayal of trust”.

What police are examining

Misconduct in public office is a centuries-old common law offence that applies where someone in a position of public trust wilfully abuses that role. It carries a maximum sentence of life imprisonment.

Investigators will assess whether confidential information — particularly relating to government financial policy during the crash — was shared without justification and whether safeguards were breached.

At this stage, no charges have been brought.

Mandelson has previously apologised for maintaining contact with Epstein after the financier’s conviction, saying he regrets “ever having known him”, but he has disputed some of the latest claims and has not commented directly on the police review.

Political shockwaves

Opposition parties are pushing for further disclosure of documents relating to Mandelson’s vetting and his past roles.

Conservatives are expected to force a Commons vote demanding more information, while Liberal Democrats have called for a public inquiry.

Several MPs have also suggested Mandelson should be removed from the Privy Council.

The developments mark a dramatic fall for one of Labour’s most influential political figures of the past three decades, who only months ago was serving as the UK’s ambassador to Washington.

Now, with police examining evidence and legislation being prepared to remove his title, his public career appears effectively over.

More updates are expected as the investigation continues.

 

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Community

Cilgerran Church in Wales school petition to be heard

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A PETITION opposing proposed changes for a north Pembrokeshire school is to be heard by councillors later this week.

At last May’s meeting, Pembrokeshire County Council considered a report of the School Modernisation Working Group which outlined the findings of a review of education provision in the Preseli area.

A later July meeting backed a general consultation to discontinue Cilgerran Church in Wales Voluntary Controlled School, and to establish it as a 3-11 community school.

“In particular, the review considered the extent of surplus school places in the area, set against a significant decline in the pupil population,” the council in its consultation has said.

The consultation closed on January 30.

Hundreds have opposed the proposed changes, with a petition, on the council’s own website opposing the changes recently closing after gaining 391 signatures.

Any petition of more than 100 signatures triggers a debate at one of the council’s scrutiny committees, in the case of Cilgerran that debate taking place at Pembrokeshire County Council’s February 5 schools and learning overview and scrutiny committee.

The Cilgerran e-petition, created by Louise Williams, raised concerns including the school could become part of a federation, a loss of permanent head teacher on site, a shared head teacher would have to oversee several schools, loss of funding control and the ability to maintain the school’s current healthy and stable funding, and a loss of commitment to the church, in turn could impact on the school’s and pupils values, beliefs and cultural beliefs.   

It said: “Ysgol Cilgerran VC school has strong links with the Church community in Cilgerran and we believe this will have a negative impact on the children who attend the school, the community of Cilgerran and the links between the two.
“We are proud of our school ethos and values which are strengthened by our links with the church. The school has close and strong relationships with our Church in Wales federation governors one of which is also our safeguarding governor.

“Our Church Federation governors work closely with the school and are regular visitors to the school and the children. They provide vital support and guidance to the school and have a positive impact on the Children’s education. We believe these links will be weakened by this proposal to remove our VC status and we believe this is an un-necessary action.”

The proposals for Cilgerran are part of a wide range of potential education changes in the county.

Two petitions, opposing the potential closures of Manorbier and Ysgol Clydau schools, were recently heard at full council and a further petition opposing the potential closure of Stepaside School has recently been launched, which has generated enough support to be heard at a future council meeting.

 

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Crime

Welsh Lib Dems urge ministers to rethink rates relief for struggling pubs and cafés

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Calls grow for Welsh Government to match support offered to English venues

THE WELSH LIBERAL DEMOCRATS have urged the Welsh Government to review its business rates policy, warning that scaling back support for pubs and hospitality risks further closures across towns and villages.

Party leader Jane Dodds, who represents Mid and West Wales in the Senedd Cymru, said ministers should act quickly to protect local venues after additional support for pubs and music venues was announced for England by the UK Government.

The measures announced by the Chancellor do not automatically apply in Wales, leaving uncertainty over whether similar help will be introduced here.

Hospitality businesses across Pembrokeshire and Carmarthenshire have already reported rising energy bills, higher wage costs and reduced footfall since the pandemic. From April, current business rates relief is expected to be reduced, a move the Liberal Democrats say could place Welsh firms at a disadvantage compared with competitors over the border.

Dodds said that pubs, cafés and restaurants form “the heart of our communities” and warned that withdrawing relief now would be “a serious mistake”.

She told the Senedd that support “cannot stop at pubs alone” and should extend to the wider hospitality sector, including restaurants and family venues that rely heavily on seasonal trade and tourism.

“When questioned, the First Minister said she needed to examine the details of the English package before committing to anything similar for Wales,” Dodds said. “Without urgent action, we risk losing viable, well-loved businesses that communities simply cannot afford to lose.”

The party is also calling for UK-wide action, including a temporary reduction in VAT for hospitality and tourism, funded by a windfall tax on large banks.

However, Welsh Government sources have previously argued that decisions on rates relief must be balanced against pressures on public finances, with ministers required to prioritise health, education and other frontline services within a fixed budget. They have said any additional support would need to be affordable and targeted.

Industry bodies have echoed concerns about the challenges facing the sector. Trade groups say many independent pubs and cafés continue to operate on tight margins, particularly in rural areas where they serve as community hubs as well as businesses.

Local operators say clarity is now key, with decisions on staffing, stock and opening hours often planned months in advance.

With the next financial year approaching, hospitality owners will be watching closely to see whether Wales mirrors England’s support – or leaves businesses to absorb the extra costs alone.

 

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