HOUSE prices across the UK increased by one per cent over the past year, according to the latest figures from Nationwide, but experts have warned that global tensions could quickly undermine the fragile recovery.

The building society’s House Price Index showed prices rose by 0.3% month-on-month, with the average UK property now costing £273,176, up from £270,873 in January.

Nationwide said the figures suggested a modest recovery following uncertainty towards the end of 2025, with improved affordability and easier access to credit supporting buyer activity.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s Chief Economist said: “This reinforces the view of a modest recovery after a dip at the end of 2025, most likely reflecting uncertainty around potential property tax changes ahead of the Budget.”

He added that housing market transactions during 2025 were ten per cent higher than in 2024, with first-time buyer mortgage completions up 18% year-on-year and home mover activity rising 15%.

However, property experts warned that geopolitical developments, including recent US strikes on Iran, could disrupt progress if oil prices rise sharply.

Babek Ismayil, CEO of homebuying platform OneDome said events in the Middle East could prove inflationary and delay anticipated interest rate cuts.

“It’s currently a very fluid situation,” he said.

Mortgage advisers also warned that rising inflation could push borrowing costs higher again.

Shaun Sturgess, director of Swansea-based Sturgess Mortgage Solutions said: “The recovery in the property market could be derailed quite quickly if oil prices continue to rise sharply.”

He added that expectations inflation would soon return to target were now under threat, potentially delaying Bank of England rate cuts.

Andrew Montlake, CEO at Coreco, said markets had been pricing in reductions this year but that outlook had changed.

“The UK economy and property market, which so desperately needs a rate cut or two, may now have to wait longer,” he said.

Experts said mortgage brokers would be closely monitoring financial markets in the coming days, particularly swap rates, which influence fixed mortgage pricing.

Despite the uncertainty, some advisers noted shifts within the market, with first-time buyers increasingly targeting larger homes while landlords purchase flats at reduced prices.

WELSH LABOUR leader Eluned Morgan has launched her party’s Senedd election campaign with a headline pledge to invest £4bn in new hospitals, as the party faces growing political competition ahead of the May vote.

Speaking to party members and candidates in Newport on Monday (Mar 2), Morgan set out five central pledges focused on the cost of living, jobs, the NHS, the environment, and social fairness, presenting what she described as a long-term plan for Wales.

The announcement comes at a politically sensitive time, with health services widely expected to be a defining issue in the election and opposition parties seeking to capitalise on public dissatisfaction with NHS waiting times and performance.

Major NHS investment promise

At the centre of Labour’s campaign is a proposed £4bn Hospitals for the Future Fund, which would modernise parts of Wales’ ageing NHS estate over the next decade.

The funding would include replacing the University Hospital of Wales in Cardiff, redeveloping Wrexham Maelor Hospital, and supporting a new hospital development in West Wales.

Eluned Morgan said: “The NHS is not just a service. It’s a promise. And we need to renew that promise. Not with slogans, but with the biggest investment programme in our history.”

She said the programme would ensure hospitals were “fit for modern medicine” while improving working conditions for staff and patient access.

Mental health and access reforms

Alongside capital investment, Labour also announced plans to expand same-day mental health services across Wales through an “open access” model, building on the NHS 111 press 2 system.

Demonstrator projects would be rolled out across all health boards, with the Welsh Government claiming Wales could become the first country to offer such a model nationwide.

Five campaign pledges

Morgan outlined five key priorities:

• Tackling the cost of living, including a £2 bus fare cap and expanded childcare
• Jobs for the future through renewable energy and retraining guarantees
• A new NHS deal including hospital investment and women’s health initiatives
• Environmental protection including river clean-ups and tackling fly-tipping
• A fairer society with homelessness action, pay rises for low-paid workers, and improved schools

Political dividing lines

The Labour leader used her speech to draw sharp contrasts with rival parties, criticising Reform UK as offering “rage” without solutions and accusing Plaid Cymru of lacking detail behind policy proposals.

“We are seeing a politics that is louder than it is wise,” she said. “Plaid always has a complaint. Welsh Labour has the plan.”

Election context

Labour has governed Wales since devolution began in 1999, but the upcoming election is widely expected to be more competitive than previous contests, with polling suggesting a fragmented political landscape and growing support for challenger parties.

Health services, cost-of-living pressures and economic confidence are expected to dominate the campaign in the coming months.

Further policy announcements are expected in the weeks ahead.

Eight remanded in custody as four-week trial fixed for May 18

NINE people have denied conspiring to supply Class A drugs into Pembrokeshire following a major police investigation.

The charges relate to the alleged supply of Class A drugs between February and November 2025. The arrests were made as part of a proactive operation led by Dyfed-Powys Police’s Serious and Organised Crime Team, with warrants executed across Carmarthenshire, Pembrokeshire and areas outside the force area.

All nine defendants appeared before Swansea Crown Court, where they entered not guilty pleas.

Those charged are:

• Tommy Lee Jones, 32, of Castle Quarry, Monkton
• Ryan Hare, 27, of Heol Cae Pownd, Cefneithin
• Kalum Haines, 22, of Woodland Park, Neyland
• Leon Haines, 25, of Ashdale Lane, Pembroke
• Zack Fecci, 20, of Hawkstone Road, Pembroke Dock
• Ahmed Al-Farraji, 25, of Topaz Street, Cardiff
• Usman Afsar, 40, of Woodborough Street, Bristol
• Adam Noraddin, 25, of Plas Nanthelyg, Cardiff
• Mili Davies-Blewett, 25, of land adjacent to Pen Rhos, Maesybont, Carmarthenshire

Eight of the defendants were remanded in custody. Davies-Blewett was re-granted bail.

They will next appear at Swansea Crown Court on May 18.