Politics
Generation gap spells trouble for Tories
ON MONDAY, the Conservative think-tank Onward published a report into generational voting patterns, policy priorities and political values.
The report considers why age has become the key dividing line in British politics, what has happened since the last general election, and what can be done to win over millions of younger people deserting the centre-right in considerable numbers.
The report follows a detailed 10,000 sample poll, conducted by Hanbury Strategy. It is the largest study of the generation gap since age became the key political dividing line in British politics.
Younger and older voters have always been politically different, but never by this much
In 2017, the gap between younger and older voters was 50 points larger than the post-war average since 1945 and five times higher than in 2010. It started, in 2015 before Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn became the leader of the Labour Party. This gap has grown, not narrowed, since the last General Election.
In 2017, “the tipping point age” – the median age at which a voter is more likely to vote Conservative than Labour – was 47 years old. The report establishes that, since the election, “the tipping point” has risen by 4 years to 51 years old.
The Conservative age curve is getting steeper. Among 18–24-year-olds, 14% said they would vote Conservative if there was an election today. 62% said they would vote Labour. 9% of this group said they would vote for the Liberal Democrats.
Among those over 65 years old, the opposite was true, 56% of respondents said they would vote Conservative, against 24% for Labour. The only groups with a net positive vote for Conservatives are 55–64s and voters over the age of 65.
Projecting the results of the survey forward to 2022 shows that the Conservatives face a wipeout in Wales.
If age continues to be a predictor of vote intention, the Conservatives are also in trouble in London. For example, Putney, which has a majority of just 3.3%, has 2.6 younger people for every older person. Other Conservative seats potentially affected by the demographic shift include the Cities of London and Westminster, Hendon, Chelsea and Fulham, and Uxbridge and South Ruislip (currently held by would-be PM Boris Johnson).
According to Onward, the dissonance between different age groups largely down to the Conservatives’ failure to win over younger voters. 28% of under-35s would consider voting Conservative, but fewer than 17% say they would do so if an election were held today. Onward says that this amounts to 3 million voters young Conservative considerers which could be won over but currently would not vote for the party.
Polling among the younger age group suggests that on some policies, the Conservatives could be knocking on an open door. 18-24s are most in favour (63%) of keeping more of their own money and paying less tax. However, they also favour making the economy fairer, not just bigger. Nearly two-thirds of people favour “reducing the gap between rich and poor” over “working to create faster economic growth”, with 18-24s most in favour (67%).
On immigration, there is net support for reducing immigration in every age bracket, within every ethnic group, and among Remain voters.
In terms of priorities, the environment is the third top issue for 18-24-year-old voters and younger voters.
Notably, immigration is of far lesser importance to younger voters than older ones, a reverse of the position on welfare benefits, about which older voters are far less exercised. All age groups regard the NHS and Brexit as the top two priorities.
A disconcerting gap is rising in the Conservatives’ appeal to female voters. Only 8% of 18-24-year-old women would vote Conservative today, which correlates heavily with pessimism: 56% of women think the next generation will be worse off than their own. Meanwhile, Asian voters (42%) are nearly as likely to consider voting Conservative as White voters (44%), but only half as many would do so today.
Politics
Senedd debates Eluned Morgan’s first 100 days as First Minister
SENEDD members debated Eluned Morgan’s record following her first 100 days, with the First Minister rejecting claims she has failed to stand up for Wales.
Andrew RT Davies led a Conservative debate on the eve of November 14, which marks Eluned Morgan’s hundredth day in office.
He accused the First Minister of letting the country down, pointing to the withdrawal of the universal winter fuel allowance for pensioners and warnings of 4,000 premature deaths.
The leader of the opposition also criticised Labour’s decision to raise national insurance contributions for employers, with unemployment in Wales at 5.3% and rising.
Mr Davies said 4,000 patients have been added to NHS waiting lists since the First Minister took office in August, with a total of 614,000 people now waiting for treatment.
He told the Senedd: “That is a damning indictment of government failure here …. That is not standing up for patients here in Wales, it’s not standing up for clinicians, and it’s not standing up, importantly, for the workforce.”
Rhun ap Iorwerth said Baroness Morgan’s first 100 days have shown little evidence of a change in direction from the Welsh Government.
The Plaid Cymru leader said: “By any objective measure, nothing has fundamentally changed in those 100 days.”
He said Baroness Morgan has no plan to grow the economy nor tackle a crisis in the NHS.
Mr ap Iorwerth accused the First Minister of failing to make the case for replacing the Barnett formula, devolving the Crown Estate, and compensating Wales for HS2 spending.
He said: “I’m afraid that what we’ve seen is Labour in Welsh Government, under the new First Minister, shifting into the mode of defending their masters at Westminster….
“A fundamental difference between Plaid Cymru and Labour is that we will never let Westminster diktat hamper our ambitions for Wales.”
Labour’s Hefin David was unconvinced by the 100-day measure of success, which was coined by former US President Franklin Roosevelt in the 1930s.
He said: “It worked for him; I’m not sure it’s going to work so much across modern politics, which moves so quickly and so differently.”
He suggested the next Senedd election in 18 months will be a much better yardstick.
The Caerphilly Senedd Member pointed out that Wales’ first female First Minister, from Ely, Cardiff, one of the poorest parts of the UK, succeeded against the odds.
Describing Baroness Morgan as a “listening First Minister”, Dr David joked: “She’s the only First Minister who gives me a cwtch every time I see her. I can see Mark Drakeford getting a little worried there. I’m not expecting anything, finance minister.
“But I do think it demonstrates the warmth of Eluned Morgan.”
Responding to the debate, Eluned Morgan reeled off a list of achievements including £28m to cut waiting times, £13m on better end of life care and a new north Wales medical school.
She said £7.7m has been invested in a specialist burns and plastic surgery centre at Swansea’s Morriston Hospital, serving ten million people from Aberystwyth to Oxford.
Baroness Morgan lauded a “landmark” £1bn investment in the redevelopment of Shotton Mill, Deeside, protecting 137 jobs and creating 220 more.
She claimed the Labour Welsh and UK Governments also secured a better deal for Tata steelworkers, accusing the Tories of failing to budget for a £80m transition fund.
“This is a lengthy list,” she said. “But it could be longer and it will be longer as we continue to deliver…. The first 100 days demonstrates how Welsh Labour is delivering real investment, real jobs, real support for communities – not promises and pledges but delivery.
“I am so proud of everything this government has already delivered since I became First Minister and I’m optimistic about what we can achieve as we move forward.”
Education
Disabled children ‘denied rights to education’
DISABLED children and young people in Wales are being fundamentally let down and denied their right to education, Senedd Members warned.
Buffy Williams, who chairs the children’s committee, led a debate after an inquiry found many disabled children do not have equal access to education and childcare.
The Labour politician raised concerns about the Welsh Government rejecting six of the 32 recommendations emerging from the committee’s 239-page report.
She welcomed recognition that more must be done to uphold children’s rights to education.
But, addressing Welsh ministers, Ms Williams warned: “We do not feel that your response commits to a step change in the pace and scale of the action required to do so.
“Our committee, like the online advisory group, worries that maybe you are not giving these issues the priority they deserve.”
She told the Senedd that families’ distressing experiences left an imprint, with the committee hearing some children are thinking about and attempting suicide due to a lack of support.
Ms Williams said parents, carers and young people on the advisory group believe ministers’ formal response to the report fails to recognise the seriousness of the issues families face.
She warned the Welsh Government appears to have “resigned” itself to a substantial shortfall in inclusive childcare for disabled and neurodivergent children.
Criticising ministers’ decision to rebuff calls for mandatory training on disability for all school staff, she stressed the importance of understanding and meeting children’s needs.
Ms Williams, who represents Rhondda, said the Welsh Government’s response appears to delegate responsibility for equity in childcare and education to councils.
She asked: “What more will it take for the Welsh Government to step in, to give local authorities the support they so clearly need?”
Gareth Davies said support for disabled children is patchy across Wales, with schools lacking funding, staff and expertise to deliver inclusive education.
Mr Davies, the Conservatives’ shadow mental health minister, warned that disabled children disproportionately experience bullying in school as he called for greater safeguards.
Plaid Cymru’s Heledd Fychan described the committee’s inquiry as heartbreaking, with failings having a devastating impact on families.
She told the debating chamber or Siambr that children as young as five or six have been traumatised and failed by the education system.
Carolyn Thomas, a Labour backbencher who chairs the petitions committee, stated the Senedd has received five petitions on Wales’ additional learning needs (ALN) reforms.
“The sheer number of petitions and signatures highlights the strength of feeling,” she said.
South Wales East Laura Anne Jones warned ALN support is one of the most pressing issues facing families, with lower-level needs “falling under the radar”.
She said it is disgraceful that so many teachers and assistants still lack basic neurodiversity training, which leads to disabled children’s behaviour being wrongly labelled disruptive.
Calling for urgent action, the Conservative criticised ministers for failing to accept “crucial” recommendations, saying: “Inclusive education is not a luxury, it is a right.”
Hefin David, whose daughter is autistic, sought to place the debate in historical context as he drew on his own family’s experiences.
He said: “In the 1970s and ’80s, my daughter would have been in an institution for most of her early life, she would have spent the whole time there.”
The Caerphilly Senedd Member recognised that progress is sometimes not fast enough but he emphasised that young people are being treated better today than ever before.
Dr David, who is stepping down from the children’s committee, said: “To take too much of a downbeat note on these things is to devalue the experience of those who suffered.”
The Labour politician described the 32 recommendations as “too many”, warning this is problematic in terms of setting people up to fail with resources spread so thin.
Responding to the debate on November 12, Lynne Neagle apologised to families for their experiences which she said made for distressing and sobering reading.
Wales’ education secretary said: “I am truly sorry … and I say on behalf of the [Welsh] Government that it is not good enough.”
Ms Neagle, whose first job after university was working with parents of disabled children, recognised that families too often feel the need to fight for support.
“It affected me deeply,” she told the Senedd. “And I want to acknowledge that not enough has changed for enough families – we can and we must do better.”
She said: “Rights on their own are not enough, they must be translated into action…. I know too many children and families have been waiting too long for their rights to become action.
“Like them, I am impatient for change. As a government, we will not stop until we get it right for all children and young people in Wales.”
Charity
Kurtz goes Jurassic as Pantosaurus visits Senedd NSPCC Campaign
THIS WEEK, the NSPCC’s annual campaign to safeguard children from sexual abuse reached the steps of the Senedd.
Pantosaurus, the friendly mascot of the NSPCC’s PANTS campaign, appeared to raise awareness among Members of the Senedd and the wider public about the vital importance of child safety. The campaign encourages parents and carers to talk openly with young children about risks and protective measures.
The PANTS campaign is built around five key child protection messages:
- Privates are private.
- Always remember your body belongs to you.
- No means no.
- Talk about secrets that upset you.
- Speak up; someone can help.
After meeting Pantosaurus, Samuel Kurtz MS, Member of the Senedd for Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire, expressed his support for the campaign
He said: “I wholeheartedly support this important NSPCC initiative. Since its launch in 2013, it has empowered over six million families to discuss this sensitive subject.
“This issue affects communities across Wales, so promoting the five principles of PANTS is essential for everyone in Pembrokeshire and beyond.”
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