Politics
Snap election builds in unfairness
A SNAP General Election is unlikely to break the break deadlock, the Electoral Reform Society has warned
The ERS says results are likely to be ‘clear as mud’ when it comes to translating voters’ preferences, with ‘vote-splitting, wasted votes and unfair results on an industrial scale’.
One in four (24%) voters are planning on voting ‘tactically’ – rather than for their first choice – increasing the likelihood of random results under Westminster’s winner-takes-all voting system, according to BMG polling for the Society.
When the same question was asked before the 2017 general election, 20% of people said they’d opt for someone who was not their first choice.
Westminster’s voting system rests on a handful of marginals changing hands: “Eleven seats were won by less than 100 votes in 2017. North East Fife was held by the SNP by just two votes. Such are the vagaries of the system that the Conservatives could have won an absolute majority based on just 533 extra votes in the nine most marginal constituencies.
“A working majority could have been achieved on just 75 additional votes in the right places. Two very different outcomes based on less than 0.0017 per cent of voters choosing differently,” the Society’s 2017 election report noted.
Darren Hughes, Chief Executive of the Electoral Reform Society, said: “Few believe a third General Election in the space of four years will ‘fix’ the current impasse: the only agreement seems to be that there is yet more volatility coming our way, with parties hoping to gain from the chaos.
“It’s amusing to remember that Westminster’s voting system is supposed to deliver ‘strong and stable’ government. It has totally failed to do what it says on the tin, and no wonder – people are rightly shopping around, but this two-party system is totally unable to cope.
“This election is likely to see ‘tactical’ voting on a scale never seen before, alongside widespread ‘vote-splitting’ and candidates getting in on fractions of the vote.
“First Past the Post voting is now an engine of volatility, which could make the current problems even worse. We could see a ‘wrong winner’ election – where the biggest party did not win the most votes – another hung parliament, and wasted votes in the millions. It’s time to join other advanced democracies in backing a fair voting system where seats match votes.
“This must be the last election conducted using Westminster’s scandalously unfair electoral system. It’s time for Westminster catch up with the rest of the world, with proportional representation and an end to the disaster of winner-takes-all voting.
“Whatever the case, this election will be a ‘hold your nose’ ballot, with one in four feeling forced to vote tactically for their second or third choice.
“A snap election guarantees nothing but an unfair lottery for voters. Let’s build a democracy fit for the 21st century, with an electoral system that encourages cooperation, not gridlock.”
ERS analysis of the 2017 election found that millions of people’s votes were thrown on the electoral scrapheap. 68% of votes had no impact on the result – representing 22 million votes going to waste.
Professor Sir John Curtice told LBC today that this election is likely to see a very high number of votes for parties other than the traditional ‘big two’.
In June, he told the ERS: “There is little doubt that Britain’s traditional two-party system is facing its biggest challenge yet in the wake of the Brexit impasse. If that challenge persists it would seem inevitable that there will renewed debate about the merits of the first-past-the-post electoral system.”
The latest YouGov poll puts Labour and the Conservatives on joint support of 59% – far below their 82% reached in 2017.
The ERS is calling for a proportional voting system for Westminster, the Single Transferable Vote system used for Scotland’s local elections and elections in Ireland.
The warped nature of the system is reflected by the fact that in 2017 it took 43,000 votes to elect a Conservative MP, 49,000 for Labour, nearly 200,000 per Lib Dem and over 500,000 votes for the Greens’ single MP. It took just 28,000 votes per SNP MP and 29,000 per DUP MP. The SNP, Greens, Plaid Cymru and Liberal Democrats support PR.
Politics
Senedd debates Eluned Morgan’s first 100 days as First Minister
SENEDD members debated Eluned Morgan’s record following her first 100 days, with the First Minister rejecting claims she has failed to stand up for Wales.
Andrew RT Davies led a Conservative debate on the eve of November 14, which marks Eluned Morgan’s hundredth day in office.
He accused the First Minister of letting the country down, pointing to the withdrawal of the universal winter fuel allowance for pensioners and warnings of 4,000 premature deaths.
The leader of the opposition also criticised Labour’s decision to raise national insurance contributions for employers, with unemployment in Wales at 5.3% and rising.
Mr Davies said 4,000 patients have been added to NHS waiting lists since the First Minister took office in August, with a total of 614,000 people now waiting for treatment.
He told the Senedd: “That is a damning indictment of government failure here …. That is not standing up for patients here in Wales, it’s not standing up for clinicians, and it’s not standing up, importantly, for the workforce.”
Rhun ap Iorwerth said Baroness Morgan’s first 100 days have shown little evidence of a change in direction from the Welsh Government.
The Plaid Cymru leader said: “By any objective measure, nothing has fundamentally changed in those 100 days.”
He said Baroness Morgan has no plan to grow the economy nor tackle a crisis in the NHS.
Mr ap Iorwerth accused the First Minister of failing to make the case for replacing the Barnett formula, devolving the Crown Estate, and compensating Wales for HS2 spending.
He said: “I’m afraid that what we’ve seen is Labour in Welsh Government, under the new First Minister, shifting into the mode of defending their masters at Westminster….
“A fundamental difference between Plaid Cymru and Labour is that we will never let Westminster diktat hamper our ambitions for Wales.”
Labour’s Hefin David was unconvinced by the 100-day measure of success, which was coined by former US President Franklin Roosevelt in the 1930s.
He said: “It worked for him; I’m not sure it’s going to work so much across modern politics, which moves so quickly and so differently.”
He suggested the next Senedd election in 18 months will be a much better yardstick.
The Caerphilly Senedd Member pointed out that Wales’ first female First Minister, from Ely, Cardiff, one of the poorest parts of the UK, succeeded against the odds.
Describing Baroness Morgan as a “listening First Minister”, Dr David joked: “She’s the only First Minister who gives me a cwtch every time I see her. I can see Mark Drakeford getting a little worried there. I’m not expecting anything, finance minister.
“But I do think it demonstrates the warmth of Eluned Morgan.”
Responding to the debate, Eluned Morgan reeled off a list of achievements including £28m to cut waiting times, £13m on better end of life care and a new north Wales medical school.
She said £7.7m has been invested in a specialist burns and plastic surgery centre at Swansea’s Morriston Hospital, serving ten million people from Aberystwyth to Oxford.
Baroness Morgan lauded a “landmark” £1bn investment in the redevelopment of Shotton Mill, Deeside, protecting 137 jobs and creating 220 more.
She claimed the Labour Welsh and UK Governments also secured a better deal for Tata steelworkers, accusing the Tories of failing to budget for a £80m transition fund.
“This is a lengthy list,” she said. “But it could be longer and it will be longer as we continue to deliver…. The first 100 days demonstrates how Welsh Labour is delivering real investment, real jobs, real support for communities – not promises and pledges but delivery.
“I am so proud of everything this government has already delivered since I became First Minister and I’m optimistic about what we can achieve as we move forward.”
Education
Disabled children ‘denied rights to education’
DISABLED children and young people in Wales are being fundamentally let down and denied their right to education, Senedd Members warned.
Buffy Williams, who chairs the children’s committee, led a debate after an inquiry found many disabled children do not have equal access to education and childcare.
The Labour politician raised concerns about the Welsh Government rejecting six of the 32 recommendations emerging from the committee’s 239-page report.
She welcomed recognition that more must be done to uphold children’s rights to education.
But, addressing Welsh ministers, Ms Williams warned: “We do not feel that your response commits to a step change in the pace and scale of the action required to do so.
“Our committee, like the online advisory group, worries that maybe you are not giving these issues the priority they deserve.”
She told the Senedd that families’ distressing experiences left an imprint, with the committee hearing some children are thinking about and attempting suicide due to a lack of support.
Ms Williams said parents, carers and young people on the advisory group believe ministers’ formal response to the report fails to recognise the seriousness of the issues families face.
She warned the Welsh Government appears to have “resigned” itself to a substantial shortfall in inclusive childcare for disabled and neurodivergent children.
Criticising ministers’ decision to rebuff calls for mandatory training on disability for all school staff, she stressed the importance of understanding and meeting children’s needs.
Ms Williams, who represents Rhondda, said the Welsh Government’s response appears to delegate responsibility for equity in childcare and education to councils.
She asked: “What more will it take for the Welsh Government to step in, to give local authorities the support they so clearly need?”
Gareth Davies said support for disabled children is patchy across Wales, with schools lacking funding, staff and expertise to deliver inclusive education.
Mr Davies, the Conservatives’ shadow mental health minister, warned that disabled children disproportionately experience bullying in school as he called for greater safeguards.
Plaid Cymru’s Heledd Fychan described the committee’s inquiry as heartbreaking, with failings having a devastating impact on families.
She told the debating chamber or Siambr that children as young as five or six have been traumatised and failed by the education system.
Carolyn Thomas, a Labour backbencher who chairs the petitions committee, stated the Senedd has received five petitions on Wales’ additional learning needs (ALN) reforms.
“The sheer number of petitions and signatures highlights the strength of feeling,” she said.
South Wales East Laura Anne Jones warned ALN support is one of the most pressing issues facing families, with lower-level needs “falling under the radar”.
She said it is disgraceful that so many teachers and assistants still lack basic neurodiversity training, which leads to disabled children’s behaviour being wrongly labelled disruptive.
Calling for urgent action, the Conservative criticised ministers for failing to accept “crucial” recommendations, saying: “Inclusive education is not a luxury, it is a right.”
Hefin David, whose daughter is autistic, sought to place the debate in historical context as he drew on his own family’s experiences.
He said: “In the 1970s and ’80s, my daughter would have been in an institution for most of her early life, she would have spent the whole time there.”
The Caerphilly Senedd Member recognised that progress is sometimes not fast enough but he emphasised that young people are being treated better today than ever before.
Dr David, who is stepping down from the children’s committee, said: “To take too much of a downbeat note on these things is to devalue the experience of those who suffered.”
The Labour politician described the 32 recommendations as “too many”, warning this is problematic in terms of setting people up to fail with resources spread so thin.
Responding to the debate on November 12, Lynne Neagle apologised to families for their experiences which she said made for distressing and sobering reading.
Wales’ education secretary said: “I am truly sorry … and I say on behalf of the [Welsh] Government that it is not good enough.”
Ms Neagle, whose first job after university was working with parents of disabled children, recognised that families too often feel the need to fight for support.
“It affected me deeply,” she told the Senedd. “And I want to acknowledge that not enough has changed for enough families – we can and we must do better.”
She said: “Rights on their own are not enough, they must be translated into action…. I know too many children and families have been waiting too long for their rights to become action.
“Like them, I am impatient for change. As a government, we will not stop until we get it right for all children and young people in Wales.”
Charity
Kurtz goes Jurassic as Pantosaurus visits Senedd NSPCC Campaign
THIS WEEK, the NSPCC’s annual campaign to safeguard children from sexual abuse reached the steps of the Senedd.
Pantosaurus, the friendly mascot of the NSPCC’s PANTS campaign, appeared to raise awareness among Members of the Senedd and the wider public about the vital importance of child safety. The campaign encourages parents and carers to talk openly with young children about risks and protective measures.
The PANTS campaign is built around five key child protection messages:
- Privates are private.
- Always remember your body belongs to you.
- No means no.
- Talk about secrets that upset you.
- Speak up; someone can help.
After meeting Pantosaurus, Samuel Kurtz MS, Member of the Senedd for Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire, expressed his support for the campaign
He said: “I wholeheartedly support this important NSPCC initiative. Since its launch in 2013, it has empowered over six million families to discuss this sensitive subject.
“This issue affects communities across Wales, so promoting the five principles of PANTS is essential for everyone in Pembrokeshire and beyond.”
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