Politics

Start of Term Report: Labour in Wales

Published

5 years ago

September 3, 2020

PROFESSOR Roger Awan-Scully writes:
I have used this point in the political calendar – the return after the summer recess – to assess the current electoral standing of the main parties in Wales.

Over the next couple of weeks, I intend to revive this custom, and address a single, simple question: with just a few months until the Senedd election, where do each of the main parties stand?

I begin this series of pieces with an assessment of the position of Wales’ long-dominant party, Labour.
A good place to start assessing the immediate prospects for a party is to review its immediate past. For Labour that recent past has been problematic. The December 2019 general election saw the party once again come first in Wales in both votes and seats – for the 27th general election in a row. But such an outcome has rarely felt less victorious.

Across the UK, Labour suffered their worst post-war general election defeat. Even in its ultimate bastion of Wales, Labour lost six parliamentary seats, thus achieving their lowest number of Welsh MPs since the debacle of 1983; the party also saw its vote share drop by a full eight percentage points on 2017 – a decline that was actually slightly worse than their Britain-wide average.

The closer you looked at the general election result for Welsh Labour, the worse it got.

Labour’s vote share fell in 39 of the forty Welsh seats (with exception being Montgomeryshire, where they were never remotely in the running).

In north Wales, only Mark Tami hanging on by a whisker in Alyn and Deeside prevented a complete Labour wipeout, and even seats like Wrexham that had been Labour for decades were lost.

Yet while north Wales was where the map changed colour most obviously, in other places Labour’s decline was even starker.

There were seven seats, all in south Wales, where the fall in Labour vote share was greater than in any of the six seats that were lost. Even in many places where the electoral map remained red, Labour was in significant retreat.

And the December disaster was not a one-off.

In the unplanned for European election earlier in 2019, Welsh Labour accrued their lowest vote share at any Wales-wide election since before World War I, and finished behind Plaid Cymru in such a contest for the first time ever.

The months that followed saw Welsh Labour’s opinion poll ratings, for both Westminster and the Senedd, reach the lowest levels ever recorded; they also saw the Labour candidate barely saving his deposit in the Brecon and Radnor by-election.

Since the general election, of course, an enormous amount has changed. One thing that will surely be of long-term importance is that the UK party is now led by Sir Keir Starmer, not Jeremy Corbyn.

While the circumstances of recent months have limited Starmer’s ability to reach out to the British public, the polling evidence already indicates him doing better with them than his predecessor ever managed. But those circumstances – the Covid-19 pandemic and its manifold implications – have become the defining political reality of the present.

In Wales, as across Britain as a whole, Labour’s poll ratings have largely been driven by public evaluations of the Conservative UK government’s handling of Covid. In the first few weeks of the crisis (as was seen in the April Welsh Political Barometer poll), the public largely ‘rallied to the flag’; these tendencies were reinforced for a while by personal sympathy extended to a severely unwell Prime Minister Johnson. As public evaluations of the UK government’s handling of Covid-19 have subsequently worsened, the electoral position of Labour has improved.

It has long been the case that Welsh devolved elections are influenced by the Britain-wide political context. But to an even greater extent than usual, Welsh Labour’s electoral prospects for May 2021 are likely to be shaped by factors wholly out of its control.

The most obvious of these factors is Covid – the development of the disease and treatments for it, the manifold social and economic implications of the crisis, and public evaluations of how the UK government addresses these problems. But another important issue will likely be Brexit, a project that is, of course, very closely identified with Prime Minister Johnson.

Having formally left the EU at the end of January 2020, the UK is due to depart the union’s economic space by the end of this calendar year; how smoothly that occurs will do much to shape public reactions to the Conservatives and, in consequence, the political fortunes of Labour.

One Britain-wide factor that is surely positive for Welsh Labour is that they are no longer shackled to the electoral corpse of Corbynism. Yet even that positive may be limited in value: in Wales, as across Britain, it is likely to take some time for damage done to the Labour brand to be repaired.

When you have been publicly punching yourself in the face for nearly five years, it takes a while for voters to forget.

Having said all that, Welsh Labour can still shape its own electoral fate.

How the Welsh Government has handled Covid within Wales will surely be subject to extensive scrutiny over the next few months. The outcome to the Senedd election will also affected by the effectiveness of campaigning and leadership within Wales. In these respects, things are looking rather better for Labour than they were. Mark Drakeford’s first year as Welsh Labour leader could scarcely have gone much worse: not only were there the election and polling results for the party discussed above, but public evaluations of him personally were similarly dreadful. Large proportions of Welsh voters didn’t know who he was, and those who did were generally unimpressed.

But the Covid crisis has substantially enhanced the First Minister’s public visibility, and the seriousness of the crisis has played to his strengths. Mark Drakeford will never be a natural at ‘retail politics’, but the most recent Welsh Political Barometer poll suggested, for the first time ever, that he could become an electoral asset for his party next May rather a significant liability.

The electoral battleground onto which Welsh Labour and their opponents will march is one defined by the 2016 result. That constituted an overwhelmingly successful rearguard action by Welsh Labour: against a difficult UK-wide context their vote share fell substantially on 2011, yet the party lost only one seat.
Many seats that Labour had won very comfortably in 2011 became significantly more marginal in 2016, whereas seats they had come close to gaining five years previously now receded from view. Thus, the results from 2016 show that there are nine Labour-held constituencies that could fall on a lower swing than would needed for Labour to gain their most marginal target seat of Aberconwy (where Labour would need a 3.35 percent swing to gain the seat, coming from third place).

While some of the apparently marginal seats from 2016 (such as Cardiff West and Blaenau Gwent) may present a misleading picture due to specific local circumstances, the overall picture suggested by the above statistic is surely correct: Welsh Labour in 2021 have much more potential to lose seats than to gain them.

Some geographical nuance is needed, however. In the North Wales electoral region, two Labour seats – Vale of Clwyd and Wrexham – are obviously marginal. However, on a difficult night for Labour where they lost both to the Conservatives, they might well gain a list seat in partial compensation, limiting their overall losses to one.

In Mid and West Wales, Labour’s potential losses are probably also capped at one seat: if Lee Waters were to be defeated in perennially-marginal Llanelli that would solidify even further the party’s two regional list seats.

It is in south Wales were the potential action lies.

Labour’s continued dominance of the Senedd is based on their grip over the constituency seats in the three southern electoral regions. The majority of these seats have been uninterruptedly Labour for the entire lifetime of the Senedd; indeed in South Wales West the total number of constituency contests Labour have ever lost is zero.

The limited number of regional list seats here is wholly insufficient to compensate the other parties proportionally for Labour’s constituency dominance. The converse of this is that any Labour losses here would be pure losses: the party would need to sustain multiple constituency defeats in any one region before it became likely to gain any list seats in compensation.

If the non-Labour forces in the Senedd are ever to crack Labour’s dominance of the chamber (at least under the current electoral system) then they have to make serious inroads into the south Wales constituencies: there is simply no alternative.

The next Welsh Political Barometer poll (coming soon!) will provide the latest evidence on how Labour and their opponents are currently doing.

But no party has yet finished within ten seats of Labour at a Senedd election. It would take a brave or foolhardy person to bet against their dominance of devolved politics ending in May 2021.

Community

‘Harrowing’ distress now the norm for unpaid carers in Wales

Published

23 minutes ago

December 19, 2025

Chris Haines, ICNN Senedd reporter

“HARROWING” levels of distress have become the norm for unpaid carers in Wales, a committee has heard, with charities warning of a support system “set up to fail”.

Kate Cubbage, director of Carers Trust Wales, told the Senedd’s health scrutiny committee: “There are too many carers who are reaching crisis point without any support.”

Ms Cubbage explained that most councils are supporting fewer than 500 carers, warning: “There are really, really high levels of unmet need within our communities.”

She told Senedd Members that staff are receiving trauma training to support their mental health due to the levels of distress they are seeing among carers.

Ms Cubbage pointed to a University of Birmingham study which found an increased suicide risk among unpaid carers akin to that of veterans who have seen active service.

“One in eight carers has made a plan to end their own life,” she said, calling for carers to be specifically considered in the Welsh Government’s suicide prevention strategy.

“One in ten has made an attempt… at a time when the average local authority has support plans for less than 0.5% of the caring population.”

Warning of deepening poverty in Wales, the witness expressed concerns about a 31% poverty rate among carers – “far higher” than the 22% in the wider population.

Ms Cubbage added that young carers miss more than six full school weeks each year, compared with pupils without caring responsibilities who miss nearer two weeks.

Kate Cubbage, director of Carers Trust Wales

She told the health committee: “It’s no wonder young carers are achieving less at school. They are less likely to go on into further and higher education.

“And if they do make it to university, they’re less likely than their peers to actually graduate.”

Reflecting on a personal note, Ms Cubbage, a parent carer, said her autistic son has accessed services from ophthalmology to audiology over the past 16 years.

“I have never once been signposted to anything that would suggest that I am an unpaid carer or that I can access support… That kind of lived experience is really important.”

Rob Simkins, head of policy at Carers Wales, added: “Things are getting worse: anecdotally, we see that through our services but also that’s what the research tells us.”

He pointed to a Carers Wales survey which has shown a “shocking” 53% increase in the number of carers cutting back on food and heating.

Giving evidence on Wednesday December 17, Mr Simkins warned of a 39% increase in the number of carers reporting “bad” or “very bad” mental health since 2023.

“All the evidence that we’re collecting shows that this is going in one direction,” he told the committee, adding: “And that’s the wrong direction. It’s a bleak context.”

Mr Simkins said census data shows about 310,000 unpaid carers in Wales but research indicates the number could be nearer 500,000 – roughly 15% of the population.

He cautioned that charities across the country, including Carers Wales, are seeing real-terms cuts in funding from the Welsh Government every single year.

Mr Simkins warned of a “shocking” lack of data and a system “set up to fail” more than a decade on from the then-Assembly passing the Social Services and Wellbeing (Wales) Act.

Warning some councils cannot quantify how many carers’ assessments they could carry out over 12 months, he asked: “How on earth are you meant to collect data from unpaid carers and plan services if you can’t even figure out how many you can assess?”

Asked about carers’ assessments, he highlighted a lack of capacity within councils as he warned a “pitifully low number of carers go on to get any support at all”.

Greg Thomas, chief executive of Neath Port Talbot Carers Centre, told Senedd Members the voluntary sector is being increasingly asked to plug gaps without necessary funding.

He warned the jam is having to be spread “ever-more thinly”, creating a tension between reaching as many people as possible and not wanting to compromise quality of support.

“We’re not quite saying ‘no’ to people,” he said. “But we’re having to say a qualified ‘yes’ about what we’re able to offer… We’re massively overstretched, massively oversubscribed.”

Mr Thomas told the committee the carers’ centre has the required reach and expertise, concluding: “It’s almost give us the tools and we can do the job.”

If you have been affected by anything in this story, the Samaritans can be contacted for free, 24/7, on 116 123, or by email at [email protected].

Community

Pembrokeshire council tax rates could go up in 2026

Published

29 minutes ago

December 19, 2025

Bruce Sinclair - Local Democracy Reporter

THERE’S just a few days left to have your say on Pembrokeshire’s budget setting for the next financial year, which includes the potential for huge increases in council tax.

Pembrokeshire’s financial situation for next year is some £4m better off after a higher settlement from the Welsh Government, but the council still faces difficult decisions.

While council tax makes up a proportion of the council’s annual revenue, a crucial area of funding is the Aggregate External Finance (AEF) rate from Welsh Government.

Pembrokeshire was to receive a 2.3 per cent increase on its settlement, a total of £244,318,000, amounting to an extra £5,493,000, placing it at joint 13th of the 22 local authorities in Wales.

Now, following a Welsh Government and Plaid Cymru agreement, local authorities including Pembrokeshire have received a better financial settlement.

Speaking at the December meeting of Pembrokeshire County Council, while presenting a report on the outline draft medium term financial plan (MTFP) 2026-27 to 2028-29, Cabinet member for finance Cllr Alistair Cameron said the recent rise in the financial settlement from the Welsh Government had decreased the expected funding gap for the next financial year for the county from £17.7m to £13.6m, but stressed: “There are still increased pressures we are going to have to face.”

The closing date for completed responses to the public consultation is January 4.

The council, in its online consultation, says there are limited ways that the funding gap can be met:

Increase the rate of council tax charged (each one per cent increase generates approximately £907,000 of additional income).
Change the way services are provided and delivered – (efficiency gains, reduce what council does etc).
Increase the amount charged for some services

Cllr Alistair Cameron, Cabinet Member for Corporate Finance and Efficiencies, has said: “It is vitally important that we get the views of as many members of the public as possible to help shape our future proposals with your priorities at the forefront.

“Everyone will be aware that it is increasingly difficult to balance the growing demands on the council but we are determined to put together a budget that enables us to continue to provide essential services for the people of Pembrokeshire.”

The actual setting of the budget and related council tax level along with any potential savings and cuts, will be decided at a later date, with committee scrutiny ahead of Cabinet considering a revised draft budget on February 9, before it is recommended to full council on February 20.

Business

Salon plans for Haverfordwest car valet site approved

Published

32 minutes ago

December 19, 2025

Bruce Sinclair - Local Democracy Reporter

RETROSPECTIVE plans to change a Pembrokeshire car sales/valet area to include a barber shop and tanning salon have been given the go-ahead.

In an application to Pembrokeshire County Council, Zizo Barbers & Affordable Cars, of Cambrian Place, Haverfordwest sought permission for the change of use of previously granted valet and car sales area, the works completed in 2024.

A supporting statement through agent Hayston Developments & Planning Ltd said the former commercial garage business has been operating in several guises from the premises for many years and has included petrol sales, motor servicing and repairs, MoTs, vehicle valeting, car sales and customer parking.

This followed on from a 2011 permission for the partial demolition of the original commercial garage, with a later approval for the site refurbishment to provide a workshop, valeting and offices for the existing car sales.

A supporting statement said: “The proposed update to a change of use involves the replacement of a car valeting service, which took place under a covered area at the rear of the site by a wash and valet operation – and restricting this service to those cars being sold at the Cambrian Place site. The use of a former office / store as a barber shop.

“The use of the former customer waiting area as a tanning salon including a new moveable timber shed for use as a meet and greet facility and as a car sales office. Provision of a communal parking area. Whilst retaining the principal use of the site for the sale of used cars.

“It is therefore suggested that the proposal will reduce both the elements of noise and the generation of dust whilst improving air quality as substantially fewer cars being power washed and valeted as well as the visual impact of these activities in this very public location – and with adjacent residential properties.”

Haverfordwest Town Council had objected to the scheme on highway safety grounds, but an officer report recommending approval said: “Highways colleagues have advised that the mixed use at the site is not likely to generate a significant number of trips that would lead to congestion and/or road safety issues due to the hours of operation are suggestive of visitors in the non-peak hours over the course of the day.

“In addition, highways colleagues have confirmed recorded accident history is negligible at the site, with one accident in 2023 at the nearby junction as a result of a rear shunt.”

It also said that, as the site lies adjacent to the A40(T) Welsh Government as a highway authority were consulted on the application, but has not not issued a direction in respect of this application.

One letter of objection had also raised issues of traffic and highway safety, chemical and detergent waste from the site and occasional activity after 5pm.

The report said the cessation of the valeting/washing use will reduce water usage at the site and any activity outside normal hours was an enforcement matter.