Politics

Start of Term Report: Labour in Wales

Published

4 years ago

September 3, 2020

PROFESSOR Roger Awan-Scully writes:
I have used this point in the political calendar – the return after the summer recess – to assess the current electoral standing of the main parties in Wales.

Over the next couple of weeks, I intend to revive this custom, and address a single, simple question: with just a few months until the Senedd election, where do each of the main parties stand?

I begin this series of pieces with an assessment of the position of Wales’ long-dominant party, Labour.
A good place to start assessing the immediate prospects for a party is to review its immediate past. For Labour that recent past has been problematic. The December 2019 general election saw the party once again come first in Wales in both votes and seats – for the 27th general election in a row. But such an outcome has rarely felt less victorious.

Across the UK, Labour suffered their worst post-war general election defeat. Even in its ultimate bastion of Wales, Labour lost six parliamentary seats, thus achieving their lowest number of Welsh MPs since the debacle of 1983; the party also saw its vote share drop by a full eight percentage points on 2017 – a decline that was actually slightly worse than their Britain-wide average.

The closer you looked at the general election result for Welsh Labour, the worse it got.

Labour’s vote share fell in 39 of the forty Welsh seats (with exception being Montgomeryshire, where they were never remotely in the running).

In north Wales, only Mark Tami hanging on by a whisker in Alyn and Deeside prevented a complete Labour wipeout, and even seats like Wrexham that had been Labour for decades were lost.

Yet while north Wales was where the map changed colour most obviously, in other places Labour’s decline was even starker.

There were seven seats, all in south Wales, where the fall in Labour vote share was greater than in any of the six seats that were lost. Even in many places where the electoral map remained red, Labour was in significant retreat.

And the December disaster was not a one-off.

In the unplanned for European election earlier in 2019, Welsh Labour accrued their lowest vote share at any Wales-wide election since before World War I, and finished behind Plaid Cymru in such a contest for the first time ever.

The months that followed saw Welsh Labour’s opinion poll ratings, for both Westminster and the Senedd, reach the lowest levels ever recorded; they also saw the Labour candidate barely saving his deposit in the Brecon and Radnor by-election.

Since the general election, of course, an enormous amount has changed. One thing that will surely be of long-term importance is that the UK party is now led by Sir Keir Starmer, not Jeremy Corbyn.

While the circumstances of recent months have limited Starmer’s ability to reach out to the British public, the polling evidence already indicates him doing better with them than his predecessor ever managed. But those circumstances – the Covid-19 pandemic and its manifold implications – have become the defining political reality of the present.

In Wales, as across Britain as a whole, Labour’s poll ratings have largely been driven by public evaluations of the Conservative UK government’s handling of Covid. In the first few weeks of the crisis (as was seen in the April Welsh Political Barometer poll), the public largely ‘rallied to the flag’; these tendencies were reinforced for a while by personal sympathy extended to a severely unwell Prime Minister Johnson. As public evaluations of the UK government’s handling of Covid-19 have subsequently worsened, the electoral position of Labour has improved.

It has long been the case that Welsh devolved elections are influenced by the Britain-wide political context. But to an even greater extent than usual, Welsh Labour’s electoral prospects for May 2021 are likely to be shaped by factors wholly out of its control.

The most obvious of these factors is Covid – the development of the disease and treatments for it, the manifold social and economic implications of the crisis, and public evaluations of how the UK government addresses these problems. But another important issue will likely be Brexit, a project that is, of course, very closely identified with Prime Minister Johnson.

Having formally left the EU at the end of January 2020, the UK is due to depart the union’s economic space by the end of this calendar year; how smoothly that occurs will do much to shape public reactions to the Conservatives and, in consequence, the political fortunes of Labour.

One Britain-wide factor that is surely positive for Welsh Labour is that they are no longer shackled to the electoral corpse of Corbynism. Yet even that positive may be limited in value: in Wales, as across Britain, it is likely to take some time for damage done to the Labour brand to be repaired.

When you have been publicly punching yourself in the face for nearly five years, it takes a while for voters to forget.

Having said all that, Welsh Labour can still shape its own electoral fate.

How the Welsh Government has handled Covid within Wales will surely be subject to extensive scrutiny over the next few months. The outcome to the Senedd election will also affected by the effectiveness of campaigning and leadership within Wales. In these respects, things are looking rather better for Labour than they were. Mark Drakeford’s first year as Welsh Labour leader could scarcely have gone much worse: not only were there the election and polling results for the party discussed above, but public evaluations of him personally were similarly dreadful. Large proportions of Welsh voters didn’t know who he was, and those who did were generally unimpressed.

But the Covid crisis has substantially enhanced the First Minister’s public visibility, and the seriousness of the crisis has played to his strengths. Mark Drakeford will never be a natural at ‘retail politics’, but the most recent Welsh Political Barometer poll suggested, for the first time ever, that he could become an electoral asset for his party next May rather a significant liability.

The electoral battleground onto which Welsh Labour and their opponents will march is one defined by the 2016 result. That constituted an overwhelmingly successful rearguard action by Welsh Labour: against a difficult UK-wide context their vote share fell substantially on 2011, yet the party lost only one seat.
Many seats that Labour had won very comfortably in 2011 became significantly more marginal in 2016, whereas seats they had come close to gaining five years previously now receded from view. Thus, the results from 2016 show that there are nine Labour-held constituencies that could fall on a lower swing than would needed for Labour to gain their most marginal target seat of Aberconwy (where Labour would need a 3.35 percent swing to gain the seat, coming from third place).

While some of the apparently marginal seats from 2016 (such as Cardiff West and Blaenau Gwent) may present a misleading picture due to specific local circumstances, the overall picture suggested by the above statistic is surely correct: Welsh Labour in 2021 have much more potential to lose seats than to gain them.

Some geographical nuance is needed, however. In the North Wales electoral region, two Labour seats – Vale of Clwyd and Wrexham – are obviously marginal. However, on a difficult night for Labour where they lost both to the Conservatives, they might well gain a list seat in partial compensation, limiting their overall losses to one.

In Mid and West Wales, Labour’s potential losses are probably also capped at one seat: if Lee Waters were to be defeated in perennially-marginal Llanelli that would solidify even further the party’s two regional list seats.

It is in south Wales were the potential action lies.

Labour’s continued dominance of the Senedd is based on their grip over the constituency seats in the three southern electoral regions. The majority of these seats have been uninterruptedly Labour for the entire lifetime of the Senedd; indeed in South Wales West the total number of constituency contests Labour have ever lost is zero.

The limited number of regional list seats here is wholly insufficient to compensate the other parties proportionally for Labour’s constituency dominance. The converse of this is that any Labour losses here would be pure losses: the party would need to sustain multiple constituency defeats in any one region before it became likely to gain any list seats in compensation.

If the non-Labour forces in the Senedd are ever to crack Labour’s dominance of the chamber (at least under the current electoral system) then they have to make serious inroads into the south Wales constituencies: there is simply no alternative.

The next Welsh Political Barometer poll (coming soon!) will provide the latest evidence on how Labour and their opponents are currently doing.

But no party has yet finished within ten seats of Labour at a Senedd election. It would take a brave or foolhardy person to bet against their dominance of devolved politics ending in May 2021.

Politics

Alarm over Wales’ domestic violence ‘epidemic’

Published

2 hours ago

November 14, 2024

Chris Haines, ICNN Senedd reporter

DOMESTIC violence against women and girls is the scourge of Wales and a national emergency, Senedd Members warned.

Mabon ap Gwynfor said Welsh police reported more than 45,000 cases of domestic abuse in 2022/23 and almost 10,000 sexual offences the previous year, with many more unrecorded.

Leading a Senedd debate, the Plaid Cymru politician challenged a tendency to believe rural Wales is an exception, with domestic abuse “limited” to urban areas only.

“The evidence shows otherwise,” he said. “Rates of domestic abuse in north Wales are higher than those in the city of London.

“North Wales even faces the same level of sexual crimes as Greater Manchester, which has a population five times the size.”

Mr ap Gwynfor added: “I am afraid the election of President Trump in the US is going to make things much worse as he makes misogynistic attitudes acceptable again.”

He said victims wait a year for support in Cardiff or Merthyr but four months in Swansea, asking: “How can we justify someone’s trauma being dependent on a postcode lottery?”

He told the Senedd that 16 children per 1,000 in north Wales are being seen by sexual assault referral centres compared with a rate of 2.9 per 1,000 in London.

Mr ap Gwynfor said the NSPCC found one in five children have experienced domestic violence, with Childline Cardiff holding 4,000 counselling sessions in the past year.

Calling for urgent devolution, he warned that prosecution statistics suggest sexual violence has effectively been legalised, with victims let down and public trust eroded.

Labour’s Joyce Watson said a vigil will be held outside the Senedd on November 25 to mark White Ribbon Day, the international day for ending violence against women and children.

Ms Watson highlighted her party’s pledge to halve violence against women and girls over the next decade, calling for funding from Westminster to further the aim in Wales.

She told the Senedd: “It is a national threat and it is an epidemic. There’s no getting away from that. It’s deep-rooted, it’s wide-reaching.”

Sioned Williams raised the NSPCC’s calls for sustainable long-term funding for specialist support for children and young people who are survivors of domestic violence.

Her Plaid Cymru colleague Luke Fletcher warned of the “corrosive” effect of social media, calling for a crackdown on misogynistic content targeted at young men.

Responding to the debate on November 13, Jane Hutt pointed to progress made in tackling violence against women and girls but she recognised “so much more needs to be done”.

Ms Hutt, who is Wales’ social justice secretary, highlighted horrifying statistics from July showing that two million women in the UK are victims of male violence every year.

She described domestic violence as a national emergency, with one woman killed by a man every three days and the number of recorded offences up 37% in the past five years.

She hailed the 20th anniversary of the Live Fear Free helpline, a free 24/7 service run by Welsh Women’s Aid and funded by the Welsh Government.

Ms Hutt said she raised evidence of failures in the justice system with Jess Phillips during a meeting with the UK minister

Politics

Senedd debates Eluned Morgan’s first 100 days as First Minister

Published

8 hours ago

November 14, 2024

Chris Haines, ICNN Senedd reporter

SENEDD members debated Eluned Morgan’s record following her first 100 days, with the First Minister rejecting claims she has failed to stand up for Wales.

Andrew RT Davies led a Conservative debate on the eve of November 14, which marks Eluned Morgan’s hundredth day in office.

He accused the First Minister of letting the country down, pointing to the withdrawal of the universal winter fuel allowance for pensioners and warnings of 4,000 premature deaths.

The leader of the opposition also criticised Labour’s decision to raise national insurance contributions for employers, with unemployment in Wales at 5.3% and rising.

Mr Davies said 4,000 patients have been added to NHS waiting lists since the First Minister took office in August, with a total of 614,000 people now waiting for treatment.

He told the Senedd: “That is a damning indictment of government failure here …. That is not standing up for patients here in Wales, it’s not standing up for clinicians, and it’s not standing up, importantly, for the workforce.”

Rhun ap Iorwerth said Baroness Morgan’s first 100 days have shown little evidence of a change in direction from the Welsh Government.

The Plaid Cymru leader said: “By any objective measure, nothing has fundamentally changed in those 100 days.”

He said Baroness Morgan has no plan to grow the economy nor tackle a crisis in the NHS.

Mr ap Iorwerth accused the First Minister of failing to make the case for replacing the Barnett formula, devolving the Crown Estate, and compensating Wales for HS2 spending.

He said: “I’m afraid that what we’ve seen is Labour in Welsh Government, under the new First Minister, shifting into the mode of defending their masters at Westminster….

“A fundamental difference between Plaid Cymru and Labour is that we will never let Westminster diktat hamper our ambitions for Wales.”

Labour’s Hefin David was unconvinced by the 100-day measure of success, which was coined by former US President Franklin Roosevelt in the 1930s.

He said: “It worked for him; I’m not sure it’s going to work so much across modern politics, which moves so quickly and so differently.”

He suggested the next Senedd election in 18 months will be a much better yardstick.

The Caerphilly Senedd Member pointed out that Wales’ first female First Minister, from Ely, Cardiff, one of the poorest parts of the UK, succeeded against the odds.

Describing Baroness Morgan as a “listening First Minister”, Dr David joked: “She’s the only First Minister who gives me a cwtch every time I see her. I can see Mark Drakeford getting a little worried there. I’m not expecting anything, finance minister.

“But I do think it demonstrates the warmth of Eluned Morgan.”

Responding to the debate, Eluned Morgan reeled off a list of achievements including £28m to cut waiting times, £13m on better end of life care and a new north Wales medical school.

She said £7.7m has been invested in a specialist burns and plastic surgery centre at Swansea’s Morriston Hospital, serving ten million people from Aberystwyth to Oxford.

Baroness Morgan lauded a “landmark” £1bn investment in the redevelopment of Shotton Mill, Deeside, protecting 137 jobs and creating 220 more.

She claimed the Labour Welsh and UK Governments also secured a better deal for Tata steelworkers, accusing the Tories of failing to budget for a £80m transition fund.

“This is a lengthy list,” she said. “But it could be longer and it will be longer as we continue to deliver…. The first 100 days demonstrates how Welsh Labour is delivering real investment, real jobs, real support for communities – not promises and pledges but delivery.

“I am so proud of everything this government has already delivered since I became First Minister and I’m optimistic about what we can achieve as we move forward.”

Education

Disabled children ‘denied rights to education’

Published

10 hours ago

November 14, 2024

Chris Haines, ICNN Senedd reporter

DISABLED children and young people in Wales are being fundamentally let down and denied their right to education, Senedd Members warned.

Buffy Williams, who chairs the children’s committee, led a debate after an inquiry found many disabled children do not have equal access to education and childcare.

The Labour politician raised concerns about the Welsh Government rejecting six of the 32 recommendations emerging from the committee’s 239-page report.

She welcomed recognition that more must be done to uphold children’s rights to education.

But, addressing Welsh ministers, Ms Williams warned: “We do not feel that your response commits to a step change in the pace and scale of the action required to do so.

“Our committee, like the online advisory group, worries that maybe you are not giving these issues the priority they deserve.”

She told the Senedd that families’ distressing experiences left an imprint, with the committee hearing some children are thinking about and attempting suicide due to a lack of support.

Ms Williams said parents, carers and young people on the advisory group believe ministers’ formal response to the report fails to recognise the seriousness of the issues families face.

She warned the Welsh Government appears to have “resigned” itself to a substantial shortfall in inclusive childcare for disabled and neurodivergent children.

Criticising ministers’ decision to rebuff calls for mandatory training on disability for all school staff, she stressed the importance of understanding and meeting children’s needs.

Ms Williams, who represents Rhondda, said the Welsh Government’s response appears to delegate responsibility for equity in childcare and education to councils.

She asked: “What more will it take for the Welsh Government to step in, to give local authorities the support they so clearly need?”

Gareth Davies said support for disabled children is patchy across Wales, with schools lacking funding, staff and expertise to deliver inclusive education.

Mr Davies, the Conservatives’ shadow mental health minister, warned that disabled children disproportionately experience bullying in school as he called for greater safeguards.

Plaid Cymru’s Heledd Fychan described the committee’s inquiry as heartbreaking, with failings having a devastating impact on families.

She told the debating chamber or Siambr that children as young as five or six have been traumatised and failed by the education system.

Carolyn Thomas, a Labour backbencher who chairs the petitions committee, stated the Senedd has received five petitions on Wales’ additional learning needs (ALN) reforms.

“The sheer number of petitions and signatures highlights the strength of feeling,” she said.

South Wales East Laura Anne Jones warned ALN support is one of the most pressing issues facing families, with lower-level needs “falling under the radar”.

She said it is disgraceful that so many teachers and assistants still lack basic neurodiversity training, which leads to disabled children’s behaviour being wrongly labelled disruptive.

Calling for urgent action, the Conservative criticised ministers for failing to accept “crucial” recommendations, saying: “Inclusive education is not a luxury, it is a right.”

Hefin David, whose daughter is autistic, sought to place the debate in historical context as he drew on his own family’s experiences.

He said: “In the 1970s and ’80s, my daughter would have been in an institution for most of her early life, she would have spent the whole time there.”

The Caerphilly Senedd Member recognised that progress is sometimes not fast enough but he emphasised that young people are being treated better today than ever before.

Dr David, who is stepping down from the children’s committee, said: “To take too much of a downbeat note on these things is to devalue the experience of those who suffered.”

The Labour politician described the 32 recommendations as “too many”, warning this is problematic in terms of setting people up to fail with resources spread so thin.

Responding to the debate on November 12, Lynne Neagle apologised to families for their experiences which she said made for distressing and sobering reading.

Wales’ education secretary said: “I am truly sorry … and I say on behalf of the [Welsh] Government that it is not good enough.”

Ms Neagle, whose first job after university was working with parents of disabled children, recognised that families too often feel the need to fight for support.

“It affected me deeply,” she told the Senedd. “And I want to acknowledge that not enough has changed for enough families – we can and we must do better.”

She said: “Rights on their own are not enough, they must be translated into action…. I know too many children and families have been waiting too long for their rights to become action.

“Like them, I am impatient for change. As a government, we will not stop until we get it right for all children and young people in Wales.”