Politics

Start of Term Report: Labour in Wales

Published

4 years ago

September 3, 2020

PROFESSOR Roger Awan-Scully writes:
I have used this point in the political calendar – the return after the summer recess – to assess the current electoral standing of the main parties in Wales.

Over the next couple of weeks, I intend to revive this custom, and address a single, simple question: with just a few months until the Senedd election, where do each of the main parties stand?

I begin this series of pieces with an assessment of the position of Wales’ long-dominant party, Labour.
A good place to start assessing the immediate prospects for a party is to review its immediate past. For Labour that recent past has been problematic. The December 2019 general election saw the party once again come first in Wales in both votes and seats – for the 27th general election in a row. But such an outcome has rarely felt less victorious.

Across the UK, Labour suffered their worst post-war general election defeat. Even in its ultimate bastion of Wales, Labour lost six parliamentary seats, thus achieving their lowest number of Welsh MPs since the debacle of 1983; the party also saw its vote share drop by a full eight percentage points on 2017 – a decline that was actually slightly worse than their Britain-wide average.

The closer you looked at the general election result for Welsh Labour, the worse it got.

Labour’s vote share fell in 39 of the forty Welsh seats (with exception being Montgomeryshire, where they were never remotely in the running).

In north Wales, only Mark Tami hanging on by a whisker in Alyn and Deeside prevented a complete Labour wipeout, and even seats like Wrexham that had been Labour for decades were lost.

Yet while north Wales was where the map changed colour most obviously, in other places Labour’s decline was even starker.

There were seven seats, all in south Wales, where the fall in Labour vote share was greater than in any of the six seats that were lost. Even in many places where the electoral map remained red, Labour was in significant retreat.

And the December disaster was not a one-off.

In the unplanned for European election earlier in 2019, Welsh Labour accrued their lowest vote share at any Wales-wide election since before World War I, and finished behind Plaid Cymru in such a contest for the first time ever.

The months that followed saw Welsh Labour’s opinion poll ratings, for both Westminster and the Senedd, reach the lowest levels ever recorded; they also saw the Labour candidate barely saving his deposit in the Brecon and Radnor by-election.

Since the general election, of course, an enormous amount has changed. One thing that will surely be of long-term importance is that the UK party is now led by Sir Keir Starmer, not Jeremy Corbyn.

While the circumstances of recent months have limited Starmer’s ability to reach out to the British public, the polling evidence already indicates him doing better with them than his predecessor ever managed. But those circumstances – the Covid-19 pandemic and its manifold implications – have become the defining political reality of the present.

In Wales, as across Britain as a whole, Labour’s poll ratings have largely been driven by public evaluations of the Conservative UK government’s handling of Covid. In the first few weeks of the crisis (as was seen in the April Welsh Political Barometer poll), the public largely ‘rallied to the flag’; these tendencies were reinforced for a while by personal sympathy extended to a severely unwell Prime Minister Johnson. As public evaluations of the UK government’s handling of Covid-19 have subsequently worsened, the electoral position of Labour has improved.

It has long been the case that Welsh devolved elections are influenced by the Britain-wide political context. But to an even greater extent than usual, Welsh Labour’s electoral prospects for May 2021 are likely to be shaped by factors wholly out of its control.

The most obvious of these factors is Covid – the development of the disease and treatments for it, the manifold social and economic implications of the crisis, and public evaluations of how the UK government addresses these problems. But another important issue will likely be Brexit, a project that is, of course, very closely identified with Prime Minister Johnson.

Having formally left the EU at the end of January 2020, the UK is due to depart the union’s economic space by the end of this calendar year; how smoothly that occurs will do much to shape public reactions to the Conservatives and, in consequence, the political fortunes of Labour.

One Britain-wide factor that is surely positive for Welsh Labour is that they are no longer shackled to the electoral corpse of Corbynism. Yet even that positive may be limited in value: in Wales, as across Britain, it is likely to take some time for damage done to the Labour brand to be repaired.

When you have been publicly punching yourself in the face for nearly five years, it takes a while for voters to forget.

Having said all that, Welsh Labour can still shape its own electoral fate.

How the Welsh Government has handled Covid within Wales will surely be subject to extensive scrutiny over the next few months. The outcome to the Senedd election will also affected by the effectiveness of campaigning and leadership within Wales. In these respects, things are looking rather better for Labour than they were. Mark Drakeford’s first year as Welsh Labour leader could scarcely have gone much worse: not only were there the election and polling results for the party discussed above, but public evaluations of him personally were similarly dreadful. Large proportions of Welsh voters didn’t know who he was, and those who did were generally unimpressed.

But the Covid crisis has substantially enhanced the First Minister’s public visibility, and the seriousness of the crisis has played to his strengths. Mark Drakeford will never be a natural at ‘retail politics’, but the most recent Welsh Political Barometer poll suggested, for the first time ever, that he could become an electoral asset for his party next May rather a significant liability.

The electoral battleground onto which Welsh Labour and their opponents will march is one defined by the 2016 result. That constituted an overwhelmingly successful rearguard action by Welsh Labour: against a difficult UK-wide context their vote share fell substantially on 2011, yet the party lost only one seat.
Many seats that Labour had won very comfortably in 2011 became significantly more marginal in 2016, whereas seats they had come close to gaining five years previously now receded from view. Thus, the results from 2016 show that there are nine Labour-held constituencies that could fall on a lower swing than would needed for Labour to gain their most marginal target seat of Aberconwy (where Labour would need a 3.35 percent swing to gain the seat, coming from third place).

While some of the apparently marginal seats from 2016 (such as Cardiff West and Blaenau Gwent) may present a misleading picture due to specific local circumstances, the overall picture suggested by the above statistic is surely correct: Welsh Labour in 2021 have much more potential to lose seats than to gain them.

Some geographical nuance is needed, however. In the North Wales electoral region, two Labour seats – Vale of Clwyd and Wrexham – are obviously marginal. However, on a difficult night for Labour where they lost both to the Conservatives, they might well gain a list seat in partial compensation, limiting their overall losses to one.

In Mid and West Wales, Labour’s potential losses are probably also capped at one seat: if Lee Waters were to be defeated in perennially-marginal Llanelli that would solidify even further the party’s two regional list seats.

It is in south Wales were the potential action lies.

Labour’s continued dominance of the Senedd is based on their grip over the constituency seats in the three southern electoral regions. The majority of these seats have been uninterruptedly Labour for the entire lifetime of the Senedd; indeed in South Wales West the total number of constituency contests Labour have ever lost is zero.

The limited number of regional list seats here is wholly insufficient to compensate the other parties proportionally for Labour’s constituency dominance. The converse of this is that any Labour losses here would be pure losses: the party would need to sustain multiple constituency defeats in any one region before it became likely to gain any list seats in compensation.

If the non-Labour forces in the Senedd are ever to crack Labour’s dominance of the chamber (at least under the current electoral system) then they have to make serious inroads into the south Wales constituencies: there is simply no alternative.

The next Welsh Political Barometer poll (coming soon!) will provide the latest evidence on how Labour and their opponents are currently doing.

But no party has yet finished within ten seats of Labour at a Senedd election. It would take a brave or foolhardy person to bet against their dominance of devolved politics ending in May 2021.

Community

Only three anti-social behaviour warnings in Haverfordwest in two years

Published

58 mins ago

December 18, 2024

Bruce Sinclair - Local Democracy Reporter

DESCRIBED as a “waste of taxpayers’ money”, a protection order introduced in the centre of Haverfordwest to tackle antisocial behaviour has been “an unnecessary tool” which only resulted in three warnings in two years.

Prior to its backing in mid-2022, a plan to introduce a Public Spaces Protection Order (PSPO) in Haverfordwest town centre had been under discussion for some time, with a public consultation on the matter, as well as previous debates by Pembrokeshire County Council.

The proposals were brought by the town’s then five county councillors, initially prompted by anti-social behaviour and drinking issues at the skate park but later expanded to a large part of the town centre, and were developed in partnership with Dyfed-Powys Police.

Claims had previously been made that “gangs of feral children are roaming around town”, with members of the public subject to verbal and physical abuse in Haverfordwest, and a “criminal element” dealing drugs in the town.

The PSPO gives police and PCSOs additional powers for three years to issue a fixed penalty notice of £100 if someone fails to comply with a request to cease consumption of intoxicating substances in a designated area.

At the time, Cllr Jacob Williams said on “civil liberties grounds” he was shocked to see what was being proposed.

“I think this is way over the top and not a proportionate response,” he said.

The PSPO area includes the Withybush retail area, the river alongside Morrisons, Barn Street, Horsefair roundabout, Rifleman Field, skatepark, Fortunes Frolic and out to the train station.

The December meeting of Pembrokeshire County Council received a submitted question by Independent Group leader Cllr Huw Murphy, who had opposed the scheme.

“At full council on July 14, 2022 a decision was made to implement a Public Space Protection Order (PSPO) within certain areas of Haverfordwest.

“A Partnership Panel held on May 23, 2024, received confirmation that since this PSPO was implemented there have been no prosecutions or fixed penalties issued. There was a cost implication in implementing this PSPO for PCC, money that we can ill afford to spend when ample legislation exists for dealing with antisocial behaviour.

“Therefore, can it be agreed that in future such applications are given greater scrutiny to avoid further waste of taxpayers’ money and what actually reduces antisocial behaviour is increased pro-active policing not more legislation?”

Responding to Cllr Murphy’s question Cllr Williams, now Cabinet Member for Planning & Regulatory Services, said he agreed with the questioner.

“Cllr Murphy and I were among several who opposed this introduction, among the things I said was I was aghast at this proposal which had snowballed; I would’ve been in support around the skate park rather than the town.”

He added: “The way the council was proceeding was not justified and I voted against it; as Cllr Murphy’s question states there have been no prosecutions, but on three occasions police have warned people about offences.”

Cllr Williams said any potential renewing of the order – up for review next year – would go to scrutiny committee before coming before council, “should there be an appetite for this PSPO to be renewed”.

He concluded: “It could be argued there’s no prosecutions so it’s worked; but only three persons have been warned [by police], I think that paints a story that it was probably not only was not a success but probably a tool that was not necessary.”

Community

Derelict Pembroke play area could be turned into allotments

Published

1 hour ago

December 18, 2024

Bruce Sinclair - Local Democracy Reporter

A CALL by a Pembrokeshire town council to be allowed to site allotments on a county council-owned derelict play area is to be considered by planners.

In an application submitted to Pembrokeshire County Council, Pembroke Town Council is seeking permission for a partly retrospective change of use of the former local authority play area on land to the rear of Station Road, Pembroke to 20 allotments.

A supporting statement accompanying the application says: “The area was a former local authority play area and has not had play equipment or been open to the public for over 20 years. Due to demand of allotments, we the town council have leased the land from Pembrokeshire County Council as a community growing area. The land will be divided into around 20 plots. There will also be a 1.5m wide pedestrian path, going through the middle of the field to access the individual plots.

“The site is in a state of unkemptness due to restricted access and a lack of use by any departments in the authority for at least the last decade. PCC own the site, and Environmental Services are Asset Managers. On the whole the site is in remarkably good condition and requires very little intervention as a proposed allotment.”

It adds: “Only pedestrian access is possible to the site, however this makes highly suitable to offer to local residents, which would be preferential. Delivering items to the site may be hindered but tenants are asked only to take what they’ll use to an allotment site to prevent refuse accumulating, and the gateway is wide enough to accommodate wheelbarrows.

“With regards to allotments, we tend to provide an area of land ’as seen’, it would be a tenant’s responsibility to tidy the plot and rid it of weeds and unwanted green growth, and deal with composting accordingly.”

The application will be considered by county planners at a later date.

News

Labour’s refusal to compensate WASPI women sparks outrage

Published

10 hours ago

December 18, 2024

Tom Sinclair

THE UK LABOUR GOVERNMENT has ignited controversy by refusing to compensate the 3.8 million Women Against State Pension Inequality (WASPI) campaigners affected by changes to the state pension age. The decision has drawn fierce criticism from opposition figures and campaigners, who accuse Labour of breaking election promises made to these women.

The WASPI women are campaigning because they believe they were unfairly impacted by changes to the state pension age, which were poorly communicated and left many born in the 1950s financially unprepared. The sudden shift from receiving pensions at 60 to later ages caused significant hardship, as many were unable to adjust their retirement plans in time. They argue the changes disproportionately affect them due to limited financial opportunities earlier in life, and the lack of transitional arrangements or compensation exacerbates the harm caused. WASPI women seek fair redress for the financial and emotional distress they have endured.

Andrew RT Davies, Senedd Member for South Wales Central and former Welsh Conservatives leader, condemned the decision. Speaking to The Herald, he said: “This decision shows what a bunch of shameless opportunists Labour are. Many of the Labour great and good, including Eluned Morgan, said their party would compensate WASPI women when they were trying to get votes, and now haven’t kept up their end of the bargain.

“People across Wales will see this decision and conclude that they cannot trust Labour again.”

The controversial decision

The announcement follows a long-standing campaign by WASPI women, who argue that the government failed to notify them adequately about changes to the state pension age. These changes left many women facing financial hardship.

The Parliamentary and Health Service Ombudsman (PHSO) previously recommended compensation ranging from £1,000 to £2,950 per affected individual. However, the Labour Government has rejected providing financial redress, citing financial constraints.

Key points from the decision include:

Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall described compensation as “unfair and poor value for taxpayers’ money.”
Chancellor Rachel Reeves defended the move, claiming most women were aware of the pension age changes and suggesting the reforms had “significant awareness.”
Ministers argued there was no evidence of “direct financial loss” and that compensation could cost up to £10.5 billion, which they deemed disproportionate.
The government plans to introduce an action plan addressing issues raised in the Ombudsman’s report, aiming for clearer communication in future pension reforms.

Backlash from campaigners

The WASPI campaign group condemned the decision as “bizarre and totally unjustified.” A spokesperson said: “This is a devastating blow for the millions of women who have been waiting for justice. It raises serious questions about the government’s commitment to fairness and accountability.”

Liberal Democrat Welsh Affairs Spokesperson David Chadwick MP called the decision a “day of shame” for Labour.

“The new government has turned its back on millions of pension-age women who were wronged through no fault of their own. Ignoring the Ombudsman’s recommendations is disgraceful.

“For years, Liberal Democrats have pushed the government to fairly compensate WASPI women. Today’s heartless decision cannot be allowed to stand, and we will press ministers to give those affected the fair treatment they deserve.”

Political ramifications in Wales

In Wales, where Labour has traditionally held strong support, the decision has caused outrage among affected women.

“We trusted Labour to stand up for us,” said a WASPI campaigner in Cardiff. “They promised us compensation, and now they’re turning their backs. How can we ever trust them again?”

Andrew RT Davies warned of potential long-term political consequences. “Labour’s actions send a clear message to voters: when push comes to shove, they cannot be trusted to deliver on their promises,” he said.

Financial and social impact

The refusal to compensate exacerbates the financial struggles faced by many WASPI women. Campaigners argue the decision undermines their financial stability and fails to acknowledge the harm caused by the sudden changes.

“This isn’t just about money,” said another campaigner. “It’s about fairness. Many of us lost years of financial stability and retirement dreams. That’s not something you can sweep under the rug.”

Next steps for campaigners

The WASPI group vowed to continue fighting for justice, with plans for legal challenges and further demonstrations to keep the issue in the public eye.

As Labour faces backlash, particularly from older voters, the decision could have significant repercussions in the next general election, especially in battleground areas like Wales. The plight of WASPI women remains a stark reminder of the challenges facing today’s pension system.