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Budget cuts: Social Services and education take two-thirds of all councils’ money

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Pembrokeshire County Council: Pandemic has forced through change to digital services

How will local government services change?

THE FUNDING pressures on local government over the last decade have been a catalyst for change in local service delivery. Increasing costs and lower revenue for local authorities means some services have reduced or are being run differently.The pandemic put significant new demands on local government, exacerbating existing pressures. The future of local government services is uncertain. How it responds to the challenges will shape those services for years to come.
The shape of local authority services has changed significantly over the last decade.

Overall local authority spending has decreased by around 7% since 2013-14 (in real terms). In contrast, expenditure on social services has increased by over 10%. Spending in most other service areas has been cut, including in education.


Planning and economic development services have been hit particularly hard, as have libraries, culture, heritage, sport and recreation services.

WHERE THE MONEY GOES

Together, social services and education made up over two-thirds of total expenditure on services by the 22 local authorities in 2019-20.


But while social services have been protected from the most severe spending reductions, this won’t be enough to ensure its sustainability for the future


A 2017 report by Wales Public Services 2025 found that spending through local authorities on social care for the over 65s is not keeping pace with the growth in the population of older people. Spending may need to have increased by at least £129 million (23%) between 2015-16 and 2020-21 to get back to the equivalent spend per head in 2009-10.


The ONS estimates that, between 2021 and 2031, the population of Wales will grow by just over 60,000 (1.9%). Within that population growth, there’s a projected increase in the proportion of older people. The population of over 65s is due to increase by around 119,000 (17.5%).


Wales Fiscal Analysis notes that, while future demand for care can’t simply be linked to growth in older populations, projected growth in older people with complex care needs is highly likely to mean increased pressure on care services.


It details that the number of older adults living with severe dementia is expected to double to 53,700 by 2040.
The Inter-Ministerial Group on paying for social care estimated that in a ‘high-cost’ scenario, between 2019-20 and 2022-23, the net costs of social care could increase by almost £400 million.
Wales Fiscal Analysis projects that by 2025-26, social services could account for 55% of all local government spending pressures, with school pressures accounting for a further 21%.

INCREASED RELIANCE ON COUNCIL TAX?

Where local authorities get the money to spend on services has also started to shift. There’s been a reduction in grant funding to local authorities over the period 2013-14 to 2019-20, some of which has been mitigated by local taxes. Grant funding still makes up most local authority income.


The amount to be collected from council taxpayers (excluding council tax benefit/reduction scheme funding) was up by almost 30% over the same period.


The overall increase reflects annual increases in council tax paid by residents over the period. Average Band D council tax (excluding the police element) increasED in real terms by £186.


However, local authorities have consistently warned that raising council tax is not enough to fill future funding gaps

Following the UK Budget 2021, Wales Fiscal Analysis notes that “the UK government’s medium-term spending plans make for a more austere outlook for the Welsh budget and Welsh public services” and outlines the possibility of a return to austerity for parts of the Welsh budget.


The financial impact of the pandemic on local government is likely to be felt for many years.
Audit Wales notes that, even in local authorities generating a budget surplus in 2018-19, some had significant overspends in demand-led services like social services. It suggests those pressures are likely to intensify because of the pandemic.

TRANSFORMINGPUBLIC SERVICES:

Local government has embarked on a journey to transform how it delivers services.
Local authorities are thinking differently about improving services for users while reducing the cost of running them.


An example of this is one-stop-shops or ‘hubs’. These hubs host multiple council services under one roof, such as libraries, money advice and adult learning services.

One of the most significant aspects of the transformation programme is to make better use of technology and digital tools.


The Digital Strategy for Wales, launched in March 2021, sets out a national vision for digital transformation. The Strategy seeks a cultural shift in how public bodies “deliver and modernise services” designed around user needs.
Over the past year, local authority resources have been diverted from some of this transformational work. Anticipated financial savings are now uncertain.
The WLGA recently suggested there’s doubt about when, and indeed if, some of those savings will now happen.

MIND THE GAP

Corporate Joint Committees (CJCs) are bodies designed to enable greater regional working and collaboration in areas like education and transport.


However, questions remain about how these new bodies will operate.

Responses to a recent consultation on CJCs by the previous Welsh Government show there’s still uncertainty about how they’ll function and their associated costs and benefits.


Despite the recent increase in the local government settlement for next year and the substantial funding support in response to the pandemic, significant challenges remain.

Wales Fiscal Analysis suggests that to meet cost pressures over the next few years, spending on local services needs to increase, on average, by 3.4% a year (in cash terms) between 2020-21 and 2025-26.


The WLGA recently reported that core pressures, the financial gap in money coming in, and what’s needed to pay for services could amount to £822 million by 2023-24.

Leaning on local taxation, such as council tax, to support critical services like social care and education won’t stem the demand for and cost of providing those services.

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Politics

Wales’ First Minister: What happens next?

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THIS WEEK will see Mark Drakeford formally step down, with his successor as Wales’ new first minister set to be appointed and a cabinet reshuffle on the horizon.

Following Vaughan Gething’s victory in the Welsh Labour leadership contest, here’s what you can expect as the formal resignation and nomination process gets under way.

Mark Drakeford announced he would be stepping down on 13 December, exactly five years to the day since he was appointed Wales’ first minister in 2018.

He will take his final first minister’s questions on Tuesday, 19 March from 1.30pm.

The outgoing First Minister will be quizzed about his record in office, with questions tabled on the 20mph limit, disused mines and Wales’ place in the world.

Mr Drakeford will then formally tender his resignation to King Charles III.

He is scheduled to give a 30-minute resignation statement in the Senedd at about 3.45pm, with party leaders and MSs expected to take this opportunity to pay tribute.

On Wednesday March 20, the Welsh Government will inform Elin Jones, the Senedd’s speaker or Llywydd, as soon as the Palace confirms the resignation has been accepted.

Ms Jones will then make a written statement to notify the Senedd that this has been received, which marks the point at which Mark Drakeford has formally resigned.

Nominations for the next First Minister will then take place in the Senedd’s chamber or Siambr during the afternoon’s plenary session.

Exact timings are to be confirmed on Wednesday morning but it will either be the first item on the agenda at 1.30pm or after climate change and health questions at nearer 3pm.

If only Vaughan Gething is nominated, he will be declared the First Minister-elect.

But if more than one nomination is made, every Senedd member – except Ms Jones and her deputy, David Rees – will vote by roll call with the nominee requiring a simple majority.

The Llywydd will recommend the Welsh Parliament’s nominee to the King and the First Minister-elect will address the Senedd.

The First Minister will be appointed by Royal Warrant, a legal document authorised by the King, before being sworn in at the Welsh Government’s Cathays Park headquarters.

Mr Drakeford was the only nominee after the 2021 election but when he was first appointed in 2018, Plaid Cymru and the Tories put forward their leaders as a symbolic gesture.

However, after the 2016 election, the vote for First Minister between Carwyn Jones and Leanne Wood was tied until the deadlock was broken a week later.

The current parliamentary arithmetic means a tied vote is a possibility but it remains unlikely as it would require agreement between the Tories, Plaid Cymru and Lib Dems.

Vaughan Gething is expected to reshuffle the cabinet in the first week of the Senedd’s Easter recess, which begins on Monday, March 25.

Ministers remain in post in the interim but the counsel general, the Welsh Government’s chief legal adviser, will cease to hold office when the First Minister is appointed.

While Mr Gething will want to put his own stamp on the government, most of the Labour group backed his opponent, Jeremy Miles, so he will need to build some bridges.

Mr Miles, who is education minister, is likely to be offered a ministerial post as a result.

However, a handful of MSs could leave the frontbenches, with Lee Waters already having confirmed he is set to leave his post as deputy minister for transport.

Eluned Morgan and Rebecca Evans, Wales’ health and finance ministers respectively, both backed Mr Gething for leader and will likely stay in the cabinet.

Lynne Neagle and Dawn Bowden, deputy ministers for mental health and culture respectively, also supported his leadership bid and could be promoted.

Jayne Bryant and Ken Skates, who ran Mr Gething’s campaign, could be set for new roles.

Mr Skates stood down as economy minister in 2021 after eight years in government to spend more time in his Clwyd South constituency.

Alyn and Deeside MS Jack Sargeant, and Cynon Valley MS Vikki Howells, could be among the fresh faces in the running – as could Caerphilly MS Hefin David.

The new First Minister can appoint a temporary counsel general with Mick Antoniw, the incumbent, seen as the frontrunner. 

Uniquely, this role can be filled by a non-Senedd member but Theodore Huckle, a barrister, was the first, and so far only, independent professional counsel general from 2011 to 2016.

In the days following the Welsh Government reshuffle, the Conservatives are expected to rearrange their own frontbench team in the Senedd.

Wales’ new First Minister will take their first FMQs following the Easter recess on April 16.

That week is likely to see changes to Senedd committee memberships and a motion to formally recommend a new counsel general to the King.

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News

Stephen Crabb MP calls for a fairer deal for farmers

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WITH concerns over the future of farming in Wales rising to the top of the political agenda, Stephen Crabb MP took up the opportunity to visit a dairy farm near Cosheston recently (Friday 8th March) to meet with a group of Pembrokeshire farmers to hear exactly why the new Welsh Government farming policies have caused so much concern to the industry. 

Held at Poyerston Farm, Stephen talked to the owner, NFU Cymru member, Roger Lewis, and a variety of NFU Cymru farmers and representatives as well as Samual Kurtz local MS and Shadow Minister for Rural Affairs, to hear their first-hand accounts of being part of one of the biggest farming demonstrations ever seen in Britain, which saw more than 3,000 farmers journeying to the Senedd. 

During the farm visit Stephen was provided with a tour of the rotary milking parlour and was able to find out more about the Welsh Government NVZ rules, the Sustainable Farming Scheme and the ongoing struggles with Bovine TB which are colliding to threaten the future of farming in Wales. 

Stephen said told The Herald: “It is clear from speaking to farmers today that a major overhaul is needed to the Welsh Government’s Sustainable Farming Scheme. The levels of stress and anxiety over all the new policies are justified and a lot of work needs to be done to restore the relationship of trust between Welsh Government and farmers.” 

He added, “Farmers need an agricultural policy that underpins local food production and support for securing resilient agricultural businesses and rural communities which is vitally important to Pembrokeshire. As the current policy stands, we are anticipating 5,500 jobs lost, a £200m hit to farm business incomes and 11% less livestock in Wales.” 

Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire MS, Samuel Kurtz said: “Agriculture is the backbone of our local economy, yet the fear in the sector at the Welsh Labour Government’s plans are real. From TB and NVZs to the Sustainable Farming Scheme, Welsh agriculture has been under sustained attack by the Labour Government.”

“Working closely with Stephen, we’ve helped give a voice to our farmers either at the Senedd or in Westminster, to ensure that those fears are heard by the Labour Government in Cardiff.” 

“A prosperous farming sector is good for our local economy and good for our environment. Huge thanks to the local NFU Cymru team for the visit and the honesty in which they outlined the impact of the Welsh Labour Government’s policies on farmers.”

Roger Lewis told this newspaper: “It’s been good to welcome both Samuel  and Stephen out to farm today, there are a number of factors which are really adding to the pressure on farming businesses at the moment, including of course Welsh Government NVZ regulations, the TB situation in Wales and changes to support arrangements for farmers under the Sustainable Farming Scheme and we are grateful to Samuel for keeping up the pressure in Cardiff on all of these issues which are in the control of Welsh Government.  When it comes to Westminster, NFU Cymru is keen to emphasise the importance of UK Governments making the right funding available via UK Treasury to support farmers in Wales, and we look to Stephen to help argue the case there.”

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Politics

Jane Hurtt demands urgent overhaul of energy market

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WALES’ social justice minister has called for an urgent overhaul of the energy market.

Jane Hutt warned that energy costs will remain almost double pre-crisis levels despite a decrease in the price cap from April.

She said: “The energy market needs a complete overhaul, so that customers are treated fairly no matter where they live and investment is made into local communities.”

Carolyn Thomas, a Labour backbencher, said it is a disgrace that standing charges, which hit those in fuel poverty the most, have been allowed to increase.

She told the chamber: “Standing charges also disproportionately impact my residents in north Wales, who are subject to the highest standing charges in the UK, and will be paying over £95 more than those in London.”

Ms Hutt recognised the injustice faced by people in north Wales, saying she has regularly called on the UK Government to introduce reforms.

She said: “There are two issues – the postcode lottery around the amounts charged, and the fact that costs are applied even when people have used very little or no electricity.”

The minister told the chamber north Wales households are hard done by because they live close to sources of affordable, renewable energy which is exported.

Ms Hutt said she has met the new chair of Ofgem and the Welsh Government has responded to a consultation on standing charges.

She said: “We need a solution that is fair to low-income and low-usage households, and that doesn’t continue to disadvantage households in north Wales.”

Delyth Jewell, who represents South Wales East, described the failure of the energy market as an inevitable consequence of privatisation.

Plaid Cymru’s deputy leader said: “It’s failed consumers, who have to pay extortionate prices for the basic necessity of staying warm enough to live.”

Ms Jewell warned that Ofgem’s new price cap will provide scarce comfort for many families.

She said: “It will do little to help households who still have prepayment meters being installed forcibly in their homes, a third of whom have been forced into self-disconnecting this year.

“And let’s not use nice language to hide the truth here – self-disconnecting isn’t a choice, it is enforced privation, it is state-sanctioned destitution.”

During social justice questions on March 6, Ms Hutt reiterated that major reform is needed as she urged Ofgem and the UK Government to take responsibility.

Criticising a lack of progress, she called for the introduction of a social tariff to help low-income households with their energy bills.

Jack Sargeant, who led a petitions committee inquiry into prepayment meters, warned there is nothing strict or tough about Ofgem’s new code.

He told MSs: “The disability charity, Scope, have recently said there are serious gaps in the new code, meaning that vulnerable people could still be forced onto prepayment meters.”

The Labour MS for Alyn and Deeside criticised Ofgem for failing to provide a response to the petitions committee’s report.

Mr Hutt agreed that it is an unacceptable way to treat a parliamentary inquiry, saying: “We need confidence that Ofgem is treating the Senedd with equal respect to Westminster.”

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