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Covid cases at highest locally since January

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R-rate as high as before the last lockdown

Positive tests rise

Vaccination programme reduces hospitalisations

THE LOCAL rate of community transmission of Covid-19 is now as high as it was when Wales entered lockdown in January this year

The Herald investigated a suggestion that the number of cases of confirmed Covid infections was increasing, and businesses were caught between a general shortage of staff and a rising number of staff absences caused by Covid-19.

THE CURRENT NUMBERS

Data shared with The Herald by Hywel Dda UHB shows that the R-rate, used as an indicator for Covid-19’s spread, is now 1.44.

That means that every person infected with Covid transmits the virus to more than 1 person.

Earlier this year, before lockdown eased, the R-rate was around 0.8.

The rate is now headed towards an autumn and winter peak, the same as 2020.

In the last month, the number of positive tests for the killer virus in the Hywel Dda UHB area has significantly increased.

On August 25 alone, the Board recorded 264 confirmed new cases.

In each of the last three weeks to August 25, the number of confirmed new cases has risen.

That fits the national picture, which shows cases rising at a much sharper rate now than they did at the beginning of the second wave in October last year.

However, and importantly, the rates for hospitalisation for those infected with Covid have fallen.

That suggests that the Welsh Government’s vaccination programme has loosened the link between Covid infection and the type of serious sickness that needs hospital treatment as a result.

Although the Welsh Government has extended its vaccination programme to include young people, take-up among that group remains relatively low.

Swayed by scare stories and the sort of pseudo-science peddled online, some in older age groups have either been deterred from taking the vaccine when it’s offered or refused it altogether.

Reaching those groups, potentially at greater risk than younger people, and addressing the gap in vaccine take-up among BAME individuals, remains a major challenge for the Welsh Government.

To take two data points four weeks apart, in the week to August 3, there were five Covid deaths in Wales.
In the week ending August 31, that number was 18.

Five new deaths were recorded on August 31 alone.

The drivers for those increases are undoubtedly this summer’s relaxation of restrictions on social distancing, the opening of nightclubs and bars, and a significant drop in the number of people wearing masks or taking the same precautions as they did before Wales moved to Level Zero.

Those factors, combined with the greater infectiousness of Covid’s Delta variant, mean that Wales heads into the autumn – and the flu season – with more sick people and a greater likelihood of abnormal seasonal strains on NHS services.

SCHOOLS’ RETURN LIKELY TO HAVE AN IMPACT

As schools and further education colleges return from the summer holiday and universities return later in September, the number of young people mixing together will inevitably rise.It follows that the increased number of contacts increases the possibility of infection with Covid-19.Headteachers have criticised new guidance from the WelshGovernment for schools as being both too late in the day and contradictory.

Laura Doel, director of school leaders’ union, NAHT Cymru, said: “We welcome the fact that schools have until 20 September to transition to the new framework.
“However, there are elements of the framework that are contradictory and likely to lead to confusion.
“The framework states that Wales is at low risk, yet the Welsh Government instructed schools to continue with lateral flow testing on secondary pupils and all school staff. According to today’s framework, that is a practice for when we are at high risk.
“The advice refers to rising hospital admissions and the seven-day rolling incidence of infection, which appears to put us in the moderate risk category.
“Added to this, there is a lack of differentiation between the measures to take, depending on the risk level. When we are talking risk, when we are planning for what we want to be a sustainable return, we must be absolutely clear of the risk level.”

In the three-weekly Covid update delivered last week, Mark Drakeford said: “Coronavirus has not gone away. While we are able to remain at Alert Level Zero, we must not abandon all the simple measures which have done so much to keep us all safe.”

When questioned, the First Minister refused to rule out reimposing restrictions if the situation deteriorated.

Russell George, the Shadow Health Minister, responded to that prospect: “Talk of reimposing restrictions is completely unnecessary at this stage.
“Moving forward we need to ensure all public health decisions in Wales are taken on the best possible data, with a focus on hospitalisation figures and a clear breakdown of those who are admitted due to COVID or other illnesses, and also those who acquire it in a hospital setting.”

In July, an S4C investigation revealed a quarter of all deaths from Covid-19 in Wales arose from hospital transmission.

PRESSURES AGAINST LOCKDOWN

Both the UK and Welsh Governments are determined to avoid any further lockdown or reimposition of restrictions now relaxed.

Much, however, depends on how long vaccination programmes, including booster shots and an extended flu vaccination programme in Wales, can keep a lid on the number of hospitalisations and whether a new and more infectious strain arises.

The issue is especially acute in the UK, which has fewer Intensive Care Beds per head of population and fewer Intensive

Care specialists than any other Western European nation.

At the start of the pandemic, Wales’s ICU bed capacity was 153.

That is 4.9 for every 100,000 of our population.

In Croatia, a country of approximately the same population and around the same size of Wales, the number of ICU beds was 14.7 for every 100,000 of population.

Any further pressure on Wales’s sensitive NHS capacity will have an inevitable knock-on effect on the availability and promptness of diagnoses and treatments for chronic conditions, including heart disease and cancer.

The picture is further complicated by a yawning gap between the demand for social care staff and the number of applicants for job vacancies.

Those pressures, combined with the economic costs of lockdown, act as an effective brake on governments’ range of actions.

And that’s setting aside the inevitable political fallout of new restrictions’ imposition, especially in Westminster.

 

Community

Who has the power to save Tenby Summer Spectacular?

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As Henry Tufnell MP joins calls for a solution, questions remain over harbour access, pedestrian safety and who can legally authorise the event

WITH Tenby Summer Spectacular still at risk, attention is now turning to a simple but crucial question: who actually has the power to save it?

The much-loved charity event, run by Tenby Round Table, has become one of the town’s biggest summer attractions, bringing thousands of people into the harbour area and raising money for local good causes.

But organisers have warned that the event may not be able to go ahead unless outstanding concerns over pedestrian safety and access around the harbour are resolved.

Henry Tufnell MP has now added his voice to calls for a solution, saying he is “very concerned” that the event is at risk.

The local MP said he had written several times to Pembrokeshire County Council over the past few months to help resolve the outstanding issues, and that his office met with the council this week to press for progress.

Mr Tufnell said he welcomed the council’s public statement confirming its support for the Spectacular, and said he would continue speaking to the council, Tenby Round Table and police.

At the heart of the row is a practical but important issue: how the harbour area can be made safe for thousands of visitors while still allowing access for residents, businesses and emergency services.

Pembrokeshire County Council has said it supports the event and wants it to go ahead. It has also said it has not directed organisers to cancel.

However, Tenby Round Table has said one key legal question remains unanswered after months of discussions.

That question appears to be whether the organisers can legally control or restrict access in the harbour area in the way required to satisfy safety concerns.

For an event of this size, the issue is not simply whether the council, police or organisers want it to happen. The question is whether the right legal powers, safety plans and permissions are in place.

The council has a role through licensing and public safety. The police may advise on safety, traffic and crowd management. The organisers are responsible for putting forward an event plan that can be safely delivered.

That means no single person can simply “save” the Spectacular by saying it should go ahead.

Instead, the event now appears to depend on whether the council, police and Tenby Round Table can agree a workable solution over harbour access, crowd control and emergency arrangements.

The row has also sparked strong reaction online, with many residents frustrated at the possibility of losing one of Tenby’s best-known summer events.

Supporters say the Spectacular is not only a family night out, but an important boost for traders and a major charity fundraiser.

Others have argued that safety concerns cannot simply be brushed aside, particularly when large crowds gather in a confined harbour setting.

Mr Tufnell said: “The Tenby Summer Spectacular is an incredible event run by the Tenby Round Table for our community, supporting local businesses and raising hundreds of thousands of pounds for charity.

“Like many of you, I am very concerned to see that the event is at risk of not going ahead.

“I have written several times to Pembrokeshire County Council to help resolve the outstanding issues regarding pedestrian safety and access around the harbour.

“I welcome the statement published by the council reinforcing their support for the Spectacular. I am reassured by their public commitment to finding a path forward.”

The coming days are now likely to be crucial.

For the event to be rescued, the key question is whether a legally sound and practical access plan can be agreed quickly enough for organisers to proceed with confidence.

Until then, the future of Tenby Summer Spectacular remains uncertain — not because there is a lack of public support, but because no one has yet produced a final answer to the question of who can lawfully control the harbour when thousands of people arrive.

 

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Police watchdog referral made after fatal A4075 crash

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No suggestion of pursuit or contact between police vehicle and motorcycle, force says

A VOLUNTARY referral was made to the Independent Office for Police Conduct following the fatal A4075 crash which claimed the life of 22-year-old Callum Hanson.

Dyfed-Powys Police has confirmed the referral was made because a police vehicle was in the vicinity of the collision, which happened between Canaston Bridge and Yerbeston on Wednesday (Jun 17).

The force said the referral was made to ensure full transparency and independent oversight.

However, police have stressed that there is no suggestion of an active pursuit or any contact between the police vehicle and the motorcycle at the time of the incident.

The IOPC has now referred the matter back to Dyfed-Powys Police for an internal investigation by the force’s Professional Standards Department.

A Dyfed-Powys Police spokesperson said: “A voluntary referral was made to the Independent Office for Police Conduct in relation to this case, due to the presence of a police vehicle in the vicinity.

“This was to ensure full transparency and is a standard requirement in order to ensure independent oversight.

“There is no suggestion of an active pursuit or any contact between the motorbike and the police vehicle at the time of the incident.

“Due to this, the IOPC have referred the matter back to Dyfed-Powys Police for an internal investigation by the Professional Standards Department.

“While PSD carry out their enquiries it would not be appropriate to comment on the matter further.

“The thoughts of Dyfed-Powys Police remain with Callum’s family and friends at this time, and we would still ask that anyone with information about the incident contacts the force.”

Callum, from Haverfordwest, died in hospital following the collision involving a grey Kia Sorento and a white Yamaha motorcycle. A 22-year-old woman who was travelling as a pillion passenger was also taken to hospital.

His family later paid tribute to him as a “kind, loving” young man who lived life to the fullest despite his own personal challenges.

They said he was deeply caring and had spent the last month looking after his grandad, who had also recently passed away.

Callum had a passion for gaming and motorbikes and was training to become a mechanic at college.

Police are continuing to appeal for witnesses or anyone with dashcam footage from the A4075 between Canaston Bridge and Yerbeston at around 6:15pm on Wednesday (Jun 17).

Anyone with information is asked to contact Dyfed-Powys Police online, by emailing [email protected], by calling 101, or by direct message on social media.

Quote reference 362 of June 17.

 

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Wales inactivity rate rises as opposition warns economy is ‘flatlining’

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ALMOST one in four working-age people in Wales are economically inactive, according to the latest labour market figures.

The Welsh Government’s June labour market overview shows the economic inactivity rate in Wales was 24.8% for people aged 16 to 64.

That is down 0.6 percentage points on the previous quarter, but up 0.6 percentage points over the year. The UK rate stood at 21.0%.

Economic inactivity refers to people who are not in work and are not classed as unemployed because they are not actively seeking work or are not available to start.

The figures have prompted criticism from the Welsh Conservatives, who said Wales’ economy was failing to grow strongly enough.

Janet Finch-Saunders MS, Shadow Minister for Enterprise, Connectivity and Energy, said: “These latest figures show the Welsh economy has continued to flatline with too many people economically inactive.

“We urgently need welfare reform to get people off benefits and into work, where they can pay their taxes and help generate more revenue to invest in better public services.

“The new Plaid Cymru government needs to focus relentlessly on creating the conditions for businesses to start up and expand because this is the only way to grow the Welsh economy and make Wales more prosperous.”

The latest statistics also show Wales’ unemployment rate was 3.8%, up 0.3 percentage points on the quarter but down 0.9 percentage points over the year. The UK unemployment rate was 4.9%.

The Welsh Government said evidence from a range of sources suggested the Welsh labour market was following a similar trend to the UK as a whole.

It also said Cabinet Minister for Enterprise, Connectivity and Energy Adam Price was keen to meet the Office for National Statistics to discuss the reliability of labour market data for Wales.

The issue is likely to remain politically significant because economic inactivity affects the size of the workforce, business recruitment, tax receipts and pressure on public services.

Across Wales, inactivity can include people out of work because of long-term illness, caring responsibilities, study, early retirement or other reasons. For rural and coastal areas, including Pembrokeshire, the challenge is often linked to the availability of suitable jobs, transport, skills and seasonal work.

 

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