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Covid cases at highest locally since January

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R-rate as high as before the last lockdown

Positive tests rise

Vaccination programme reduces hospitalisations

THE LOCAL rate of community transmission of Covid-19 is now as high as it was when Wales entered lockdown in January this year

The Herald investigated a suggestion that the number of cases of confirmed Covid infections was increasing, and businesses were caught between a general shortage of staff and a rising number of staff absences caused by Covid-19.

THE CURRENT NUMBERS

Data shared with The Herald by Hywel Dda UHB shows that the R-rate, used as an indicator for Covid-19’s spread, is now 1.44.

That means that every person infected with Covid transmits the virus to more than 1 person.

Earlier this year, before lockdown eased, the R-rate was around 0.8.

The rate is now headed towards an autumn and winter peak, the same as 2020.

In the last month, the number of positive tests for the killer virus in the Hywel Dda UHB area has significantly increased.

On August 25 alone, the Board recorded 264 confirmed new cases.

In each of the last three weeks to August 25, the number of confirmed new cases has risen.

That fits the national picture, which shows cases rising at a much sharper rate now than they did at the beginning of the second wave in October last year.

However, and importantly, the rates for hospitalisation for those infected with Covid have fallen.

That suggests that the Welsh Government’s vaccination programme has loosened the link between Covid infection and the type of serious sickness that needs hospital treatment as a result.

Although the Welsh Government has extended its vaccination programme to include young people, take-up among that group remains relatively low.

Swayed by scare stories and the sort of pseudo-science peddled online, some in older age groups have either been deterred from taking the vaccine when it’s offered or refused it altogether.

Reaching those groups, potentially at greater risk than younger people, and addressing the gap in vaccine take-up among BAME individuals, remains a major challenge for the Welsh Government.

To take two data points four weeks apart, in the week to August 3, there were five Covid deaths in Wales.
In the week ending August 31, that number was 18.

Five new deaths were recorded on August 31 alone.

The drivers for those increases are undoubtedly this summer’s relaxation of restrictions on social distancing, the opening of nightclubs and bars, and a significant drop in the number of people wearing masks or taking the same precautions as they did before Wales moved to Level Zero.

Those factors, combined with the greater infectiousness of Covid’s Delta variant, mean that Wales heads into the autumn – and the flu season – with more sick people and a greater likelihood of abnormal seasonal strains on NHS services.

SCHOOLS’ RETURN LIKELY TO HAVE AN IMPACT

As schools and further education colleges return from the summer holiday and universities return later in September, the number of young people mixing together will inevitably rise.It follows that the increased number of contacts increases the possibility of infection with Covid-19.Headteachers have criticised new guidance from the WelshGovernment for schools as being both too late in the day and contradictory.

Laura Doel, director of school leaders’ union, NAHT Cymru, said: “We welcome the fact that schools have until 20 September to transition to the new framework.
“However, there are elements of the framework that are contradictory and likely to lead to confusion.
“The framework states that Wales is at low risk, yet the Welsh Government instructed schools to continue with lateral flow testing on secondary pupils and all school staff. According to today’s framework, that is a practice for when we are at high risk.
“The advice refers to rising hospital admissions and the seven-day rolling incidence of infection, which appears to put us in the moderate risk category.
“Added to this, there is a lack of differentiation between the measures to take, depending on the risk level. When we are talking risk, when we are planning for what we want to be a sustainable return, we must be absolutely clear of the risk level.”

In the three-weekly Covid update delivered last week, Mark Drakeford said: “Coronavirus has not gone away. While we are able to remain at Alert Level Zero, we must not abandon all the simple measures which have done so much to keep us all safe.”

When questioned, the First Minister refused to rule out reimposing restrictions if the situation deteriorated.

Russell George, the Shadow Health Minister, responded to that prospect: “Talk of reimposing restrictions is completely unnecessary at this stage.
“Moving forward we need to ensure all public health decisions in Wales are taken on the best possible data, with a focus on hospitalisation figures and a clear breakdown of those who are admitted due to COVID or other illnesses, and also those who acquire it in a hospital setting.”

In July, an S4C investigation revealed a quarter of all deaths from Covid-19 in Wales arose from hospital transmission.

PRESSURES AGAINST LOCKDOWN

Both the UK and Welsh Governments are determined to avoid any further lockdown or reimposition of restrictions now relaxed.

Much, however, depends on how long vaccination programmes, including booster shots and an extended flu vaccination programme in Wales, can keep a lid on the number of hospitalisations and whether a new and more infectious strain arises.

The issue is especially acute in the UK, which has fewer Intensive Care Beds per head of population and fewer Intensive

Care specialists than any other Western European nation.

At the start of the pandemic, Wales’s ICU bed capacity was 153.

That is 4.9 for every 100,000 of our population.

In Croatia, a country of approximately the same population and around the same size of Wales, the number of ICU beds was 14.7 for every 100,000 of population.

Any further pressure on Wales’s sensitive NHS capacity will have an inevitable knock-on effect on the availability and promptness of diagnoses and treatments for chronic conditions, including heart disease and cancer.

The picture is further complicated by a yawning gap between the demand for social care staff and the number of applicants for job vacancies.

Those pressures, combined with the economic costs of lockdown, act as an effective brake on governments’ range of actions.

And that’s setting aside the inevitable political fallout of new restrictions’ imposition, especially in Westminster.

 

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Wales enters new political era after historic Senedd election

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WALES has entered a new political era after voters delivered the biggest political upheaval since devolution.

Plaid Cymru emerged as the largest party in the Senedd, Reform UK surged into second place, and Welsh Labour was reduced to its worst result since the creation of Welsh devolution in 1999.

The result ends Labour’s long dominance of Welsh politics and leaves Cardiff Bay facing weeks of negotiations over who will form the next Welsh Government.

Labour dominance ends

For the first time since the Senedd was created, Labour is no longer the largest party in Wales.

The party fell to just nine seats in the expanded 96-member chamber, a result which has sent shockwaves through Welsh politics.

First Minister Eluned Morgan also lost her own seat in Ceredigion Penfro before announcing that she would stand down as Welsh Labour leader.

The scale of the defeat reflects deep public frustration over the NHS, public services, the cost of living, and the perception that Welsh Labour had run out of energy after decades in power.

Ken Skates has now been appointed interim Welsh Labour leader as the party begins what is likely to be a long and painful rebuilding process.

Plaid’s historic breakthrough

Plaid Cymru finished as the largest party with 43 seats, a landmark result for Rhun ap Iorwerth and his party.

It is the closest Plaid has ever come to forming a government in Wales, and gives the party the clear first opportunity to try to lead the next Welsh Government.

However, Plaid fell short of the 49 seats needed for an outright majority.

That means Rhun ap Iorwerth must now decide whether to seek a formal coalition, a confidence-and-supply arrangement, or attempt to govern as a minority administration.

The party campaigned strongly on the NHS, childcare, housing, rural Wales and economic renewal. It must now show that it can move from opposition into government and turn those promises into delivery.

Rhun ap Iorwerth after the election result was announced

Reform becomes major force

The other major story of the election was the dramatic rise of Reform UK.

The party won 34 seats, becoming the second-largest group in the Senedd and reshaping the political map across Wales.

Reform made major gains in former Labour heartlands, particularly in areas where voters have become disillusioned with Cardiff Bay politics and traditional party loyalties.

Dan Thomas, Reform Leader in Wales, after being elected (Image: BBC)

Its success means the next Senedd will be noisier, more confrontational, and far less predictable than before.

Reform will now have a large platform from which to challenge Plaid Cymru, Welsh Labour and the Conservatives on public services, immigration, the economy, and the future direction of Wales.

Dan Thomas, Reform Leader in Wales, talks to the BBC about Reforms impressive ‘trajectory’ into Wales

Smaller parties gain ground

The Conservatives were reduced to seven seats, leaving them much diminished after years of trying to present themselves as the main alternative to Labour.

The Wales Green Party won two seats, giving the party its first real foothold in the Senedd.

The Welsh Liberal Democrats won one seat, ensuring they remain represented in Cardiff Bay.

The new electoral system, which expanded the Senedd from 60 to 96 members and introduced 16 larger constituencies electing six MSs each, helped create a far more proportional result.

It has also produced a chamber in which smaller parties and tactical negotiations will matter more than ever.

Former First Minister Eluned Morgan arrives at the count in Ceredigion, accompanies by Labour candidate Cllr Marc Tierney

What happens next?

The key issue now is who can command enough support to govern.

Plaid Cymru, as the largest party, will be expected to lead the process of forming an administration.

But without a majority, every major vote will matter. Budgets, major laws, confidence votes and key policy decisions will all require careful negotiation.

A formal deal with another party may prove difficult. A minority Plaid government is possible, but it would need support from other MSs to survive.

That means the next few weeks could be decisive for the future of Wales.

A changed country

This was more than a bad night for Labour or a breakthrough for Plaid and Reform.

It was a clear sign that Welsh politics has changed.

Old loyalties have weakened. Voters who once backed the same party for generations have shown they are prepared to move. The next Senedd will be more divided, more unpredictable, and more difficult to control.

For Wales, the message is stark.

The Labour era is over. Plaid Cymru now has its greatest opportunity yet. Reform UK has arrived as a major force. And whoever forms the next Welsh Government will have to prove quickly that change means more than a different set of faces in Cardiff Bay.

 

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Haverfordwest Castle redevelopment on track for 2028 reopening

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Major project will create new visitor attraction, events space, museum and improved town links

HAVERFORDWEST Castle is on course to reopen in 2028 following a major redevelopment project aimed at transforming the historic site into a high-quality visitor attraction.

County Councillor Thomas Tudor, who represents the Castle Ward in Haverfordwest, recently visited the site to see the progress being made.

He said: “As County Councillor for the Castle Ward in Haverfordwest, it was lovely to visit the Haverfordwest Castle Redevelopment Project and see the progress that has been achieved.

“I am very much looking forward to the Castle reopening in 2028.”

The project will see the mediaeval castle conserved for future generations, while the Inner Bailey has been landscaped so it can host events for up to 500 people.

These could include concerts, plays, craft fairs, Christmas markets and other community events.

The wider castle grounds are also being improved, with new interpretation explaining the history of the site, as well as family-friendly activities.

The building which houses Haverfordwest Museum, the Governor’s House, is being conserved, while the museum exhibition inside will be completely refurbished and modernised.

The former gaol building will also be transformed into a visitor attraction telling the story of Pembrokeshire’s past and future in an interactive and family-friendly way.

The attraction will include a café, shop, community spaces and exhibition areas.

Work is also taking place to improve the physical route between the castle and the town centre at Castle Back, with better signage planned to help visitors find the castle and navigate Haverfordwest more easily.

The castle is expected to reopen in 2028.

 

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Plaid Cymru celebrates historic victory as Rhun ap Iorwerth arrives at Cardiff Bay

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CROWDS gathered outside the Senedd as Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth arrived in Cardiff Bay following his party’s historic victory in the Welsh election.

Supporters waving Welsh flags and Plaid banners cheered as ap Iorwerth made his way through crowds of activists, journalists and newly elected Members of the Senedd, in scenes unlike anything seen in modern Welsh devolved politics.

The election result marks a political earthquake in Wales, with Plaid Cymru emerging as the largest party in the Senedd for the first time since devolution began in 1999.

Ap Iorwerth was greeted by supporters, posed for photographs and embraced well-wishers as he arrived at the waterfront venue before addressing media gathered outside.

The atmosphere around Cardiff Bay was jubilant, with many supporters describing the result as a “turning point” for Wales.

Plaid’s breakthrough came after a dramatic night which saw Labour suffer major losses across Wales, while Reform UK also made significant gains under the new expanded Senedd voting system.

In emotional scenes, ap Iorwerth hugged supporters and thanked campaigners who had travelled from across Wales to witness the moment.

One photograph captured the Plaid leader embracing a young supporter as crowds packed the entrance area overlooking Cardiff Bay, while another showed hundreds gathered outside as he addressed the media beneath Welsh flags.

The result leaves Plaid Cymru in pole position as discussions begin over how the next Welsh Government will be formed in a hung Senedd.

Speaking after arriving at the Bay, Plaid figures said voters had delivered a “clear message that Wales wants change.”

The historic scenes are likely to become defining images of a new era in Welsh politics.

 

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