Business
Welsh business confidence ticks higher, but output and employment fall at faster rates
THE HEADLINE NatWest Wales Business Activity Index – a seasonally adjusted index that measures the month-on-month change in the combined output of the region’s manufacturing and service sectors – registered 48.0 in December, down from 48.5 in November, to signal a modest and quicker drop in output at Welsh businesses. The fall was due to weak client demand, economic uncertainty and a further decrease in new order inflows. The sharper decline in activity in Wales contrasted with the wider UK trend, which indicated a moderate upturn. In fact, Welsh firms recorded the second-fastest drop in output behind the North East of England.
Welsh companies registered a further contraction in new business at the end of 2023, although the rate of decline eased for the second successive month. The continued drop in new orders was linked to subdued demand conditions and customer postponements. The pace of decrease was modest and the slowest since September, though it contrasted with the UK average which indicated a moderate expansion in new business.
Manufacturers and service providers alike in Wales recorded contractions in new orders.
December data signalled an improvement in expectations regarding the outlook for output over the coming year at Welsh firms. The level of optimism reached a five-month high and was stronger than the series average. Companies noted that positive sentiment was due to hopes of a pick up in customer demand, investment in product diversification and facilities, and the acquisition of new clients.
The degree of confidence remained slightly weaker than the UK average, however.
Welsh businesses recorded a fifth consecutive monthly decrease in workforce numbers during December. The rate of job shedding accelerated to the joint-fastest in over three years and was by far the strongest of the 12 monitored UK areas. Weak customer demand led firms to reduce staffing numbers, with redundancies mentioned by panellists.
Employment fell at Welsh manufacturers and service sector firms.
Businesses in Wales indicated another monthly decline in backlogs of work in December. The drop in the level of outstanding business was marked overall and sharper than the UK trend. Firms highlighted that lower new order inflows enabled them to process incomplete work. Nonetheless, the pace of reduction slowed to the weakest in seven months.
Average input costs faced by Welsh firms increased at a quicker pace at the end of 2023. The rise in input prices was attributed to greater raw material and component costs.
Although sharp, the rate of cost inflation was slower than the series average and the trend seen across the UK as a whole. In fact, of the 12 monitored UK areas, only the West Midlands, North East and Northern Ireland recorded slower upticks in operating expenses.
Welsh firms registered a sharper rise in output charges during December, with the rate of inflation picking up to the fastest since August. Anecdotal evidence stated that higher selling prices were due to the pass through of greater costs to customers.
In line with the trend for input costs, the pace of increase in output charges was slower than the UK average, with only Northern Ireland, the North East and the North West recording weaker upticks in selling prices.
Jessica Shipman, Chair, NatWest Cymru Regional Board, told The Pembrokeshire Herald: “The final month of the year signalled more upbeat sentiment among Welsh firms regarding activity in 2024 as business expectations were the strongest since July, despite output and new orders continuing to contract. Companies anticipated that more accommodative demand conditions and investment in new products and facilities would drive output in the year ahead.
“Although the pace of decrease in new business slowed, reduced backlogs of work led to dwindling activity and the joint-fastest drop in employment since October 2020 as business requirements waned further.
“Meanwhile, rates of inflation remained sticky as input costs and output charges rose at faster paces. Sharper hikes in component and raw material costs were passed through to customers despite a challenging demand environment. Nonetheless, rates of increase were among the weakest in around three years and much slower than the 2023 average as inflationary pressures eased substantially from the start of the year.”
Business
Tax deadline for self-employed and landlords as digital system goes live in April
Quarterly online reporting to become mandatory for higher earners under HMRC shake-up
MORE than 860,000 sole traders and landlords across the UK are being urged to prepare now for major changes to the way they report tax, with new digital rules coming into force in just two months.
From April 6, thousands of self-employed workers and property landlords earning over £50,000 a year will be required to keep digital records and submit quarterly income updates to HM Revenue & Customs under the Government’s Making Tax Digital scheme.
The changes form part of a wider overhaul designed to modernise the tax system and reduce errors.
Instead of submitting figures once a year, those affected will use approved software to record income and expenses throughout the year and send short quarterly summaries to HMRC. Officials stress these are not extra tax returns, but updates intended to spread the workload and avoid the usual January rush.
Free and paid software options are available, with the system automatically generating the figures needed for submission.
At the end of the tax year, users will still file a Self Assessment return, but most of the information will already be stored digitally.
Craig Ogilvie, HMRC’s Director of Making Tax Digital, said the move should make tax reporting simpler.
He said: “With two months to go until MTD for Income Tax launches, now is the time to act. The system is straightforward and helps reduce errors. Thousands have already tested it successfully.
“Spreading your tax admin throughout the year means avoiding that last-minute scramble to complete a tax return every January.”
More than 12,000 quarterly updates have already been submitted during a voluntary trial.
Phased rollout
The new rules will be introduced gradually:
• From April 2026 – those earning £50,000 or more
• From April 2027 – those earning £30,000 or more
• From April 2028 – those earning £20,000 or more
To ease the transition, HMRC says it will not issue penalty points for late quarterly submissions during the first 12 months.
After that, a points system will apply, with a £200 fine only triggered once four late submissions are reached.
Anyone unable to use digital tools for genuine reasons can apply for an exemption.
Tax agents and accountants are advising clients to prepare early to avoid last-minute problems.
Further guidance, webinars and sign-up details are available via GOV.UK.
Business
Bid to convert office space into chocolate factory, salon and laundrette
A CALL for the retrospective conversion of office space previously connected to a Pembrokeshire car hire business to a chocolate factory, a beauty salon and a laundrette has been submitted to county planners
In an application to Pembrokeshire County Council, Mr M Williams, through agent Preseli Planning Ltd, sought retrospective permission for the subdivision of an office on land off Scotchwell Cottage, Cartlett, Haverfordwest into three units forming a chocolate manufacturing, a beauty salon, and a launderette, along with associated works.
A supporting statement said planning history at the site saw a 2018 application for the refurbishment of an existing office building and a change of use from oil depot offices to a hire car office and car/van storage yard, approved back in 2019.
For the chocolate manufacturing by ‘Pembrokeshire Chocolate company,’ as part of the latest scheme it said: “The operation comprises of manufacturing of handmade bespoke flavoured chocolate bars. Historically there was an element of counter sales but this has now ceased. The business sales comprise of online orders and the delivery of produce to local stockist. There are no counter sales from the premises.”
It said the beauty salon “offers treatments, nail services and hairdressing,” operating “on an appointment only basis, with the hairdresser element also offering a mobile service”. It said the third unit of the building functions as a commercial laundrette and ironing services known as ‘West Coast Laundry,’ which “predominantly provides services to holiday cottages, hotels and care homes”.
The statement added: “Beyond the unchanged access the site has parking provision for at least 12 vehicles and a turning area. The building now forms three units which employ two persons per unit. The 12 parking spaces, therefore, provide sufficient provision for staff.
“In terms of visiting members of the public the beauty salon operates on an appointment only basis and based on its small scale can only accommodate two customers at any one time. Therefore, ample parking provision exists to visitors.
“With regard to the chocolate manufacturing and commercial laundrette service these enterprises do not attract visitors but do attract the dropping off laundry and delivery of associated inputs. Drop off and collections associated with the laundry services tend to fall in line with holiday accommodation changeover days, for example Tuesday drop off and collections on the Thursday.
“With regard to the chocolate manufacturing ingredients are delivered by couriers and movements associated with this is also estimated at 10 vehicular movements per week.”
The application will be considered by county planners at a later date.
Business
First Minister criticised after ‘Netflix’ comment on struggling high streets
Government announces 15% support package but campaigners say costs still crushing hospitality
PUBS, cafés and restaurants across Wales will receive extra business rates relief — but ministers are facing criticism after comments suggesting people staying home watching Netflix are partly to blame for struggling high streets.
The Welsh Government has announced a 15% business rates discount for around 4,400 hospitality businesses in 2026-27, backed by up to £8 million in funding.
Announcing the package, Welsh Government Finance Secretary Mark Drakeford said: “Pubs, restaurants, cafés, bars, and live music venues are at the heart of communities across Wales. We know they are facing real pressures, from rising costs to changing consumer habits.
“This additional support will help around 4,400 businesses as they adapt to these challenges.”
The announcement came hours after Eluned Morgan suggested in Senedd discussions that changing lifestyles — including more time spent at home on streaming services — were contributing to falling footfall in town centres.
The remarks prompted political backlash.
Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats, Jane Dodds, said: “People are not willingly choosing Netflix over the high street. They are being forced indoors because prices keep rising and wages are not.
“Blaming people for staying at home is an insult to business owners who are working longer hours just to survive.”
Industry groups say the problem runs deeper than consumer behaviour.
The Campaign for Real Ale (CAMRA) welcomed the discount but warned it would not prevent closures.
Chris Charters, CAMRA Wales director, said: “15% off for a year is only the start. It won’t fix the unfair business rates system our pubs are being crushed by.
“Welsh publicans need a permanent solution, or doors will continue to close.”
Across Pembrokeshire, traders have repeatedly told The Herald that rising energy bills, wage pressures and rates — rather than a lack of willingness to go out — are keeping customers away.
Several town centres have seen growing numbers of empty units over the past year, with independent shops and hospitality venues reporting reduced footfall outside the main tourist season.
While ministers say the relief balances support with tight public finances, business groups are calling for wider and longer-term reform.
Further debate on rates changes is expected later this year.

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