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Politics

Tories predicted only to win Montgomeryshire-Glyndŵr seat in Wales

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The Conservatives could be reduced to just one seat in Wales according to latest polling data, with a narrowing of the lead for Plaid Cymru and Labour respectively in Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion’s two new seats.

Recent polls have predicted a safe win for Plaid in Ceredigion Preseli, and a narrower win for Labour in Mid and South Pembrokeshire.

As part of constituency changes, Pembrokeshire’s previous seats of Preseli Pembrokeshire and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire, are now no more.

As part of the changes, bits of north Pembrokeshire – including St Davids and– are joining the new Mid and South Pembrokeshire constituency.

Mid and South Pembrokeshire covers Letterston, Solva and St Davids down to Hundleton and Tenby, stretching eastwards to Amroth, Narberth and Lampeter Velfrey

Other parts of the north of the county are now in the new Ceredigion Preseli constituency; which extends up past Aberystwyth and also includes Cilgerran, Crymych, St Dogmaels, Fishguard and Llanrhian.

Earlier this month, global public opinion and data company YouGov recently had predicted the Ceredigion Preseli seat would see a comfortable Plaid Cymru win, at 42.8 percent, with Labour second on 17.6 percent, followed by Conservatives (11.7), Reform (8.5), Liberal Democrats (8.3), and Greens (4.9).

YouGov’s figures for the new Mid and South Pembrokeshire seat had predicted a Labour win, with 42.6 percent of the vote, followed by Conservatives on 33.4, Reform 9.4, Plaid Cymru 7.4, Liberal Democrats 3.6, and Green 2.8.

The predictions have now been amended to show a narrower margin; a Ceredigion Preseli Plaid win with 36 percent of the votes, followed by Labour, Conservative and Reform tying on 14 percent each, with the Lib-Dems on 13 percent, Green five percent, and others three percent.

For Mid and South Pembrokeshire, the latest figures show a narrower Labour win (33 percent) over the Conservatives (29), followed by Reform (19), Plaid Cymru (8), Lib-Dems (6), Green (4), and others (1).

There’s now a 15-candidate battle for the two seats, eight in Mid and South Pembrokeshire and seven in Ceredigion Preseli.

With a July 4 date set for the general election, the currently declared candidates for Mid and South Pembrokeshire are: Hanna Andersen (Women’s Equality Party); Alistair Cameron (Welsh Liberal Democrats); Stephen Crabb (Welsh Conservative); Stuart Marchant (Reform UK); James Purchase (Green Party); Vusi Siphika, (Independent); Cris Tomos (Plaid Cymru); and Henry Tufnell (Welsh Labour).

Candidates for the new Ceredigion Preseli seat are: Ben Lake for Plaid Cymru, Liberal Democrat Mark Williams, Welsh Labour’s Jackie Jones, Conservative Aled Thomas, Tomos Barlow for the Green Party, Karl Robert Pollard for Reform UK, and Taghrid Al-Mawed for the Workers Party of Britain.

Wales-wide the latest YouGov poll sees the Conservatives holding on to just Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr in a narrow 28 percent to 25 percent lead over Labour, neighbouring Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe seeing a Liberal Democrat win over the Conservatives.

Plaid Cymru are currently on course to win four seats: Ceredigion Preseli, Dwyfor Meirionnydd, Caerfyrddin, and Ynys Môn, the latter a 31 percent Plaid, 27 percent Labour vote.

News

Hundreds of Pembrokeshire Council Tax defaulters in court next week

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HAVERFORDWEST Magistrates’ Court will hear cases against hundreds of defendants next week as Pembrokeshire County Council seeks liability orders for unpaid council tax and non-domestic rates.

The session, scheduled for Monday (Mar 17) at 10:00am, will see a block of cases between 12:00pm and 1:00pm dedicated to council tax disputes. The council is applying for liability orders under regulation 34 of the Council Tax (Administration and Enforcement) Regulations 1992.

A total of 341 defendants are listed for non-payment of council tax, while a further 18 cases relate to unpaid non-domestic rates under Regulation 12 of the Non-Domestic Rating (Collection and Enforcement) (Local Lists) Regulations 1989.

Liability orders allow the council to take further enforcement action, which may include deductions from wages or benefits, bailiff action, or bankruptcy proceedings.

The Herald will provide further updates following the hearing.

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News

Reimburse charities for NI rise, say Welsh Conservatives

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CHARITIES not-for-profits, and voluntary organisations in Wales face mounting financial strain due to an increase in employer National Insurance (NI) contributions, prompting calls for government intervention.

The UK Labour Government’s decision to raise employer NI contributions has drawn sharp criticism from the Welsh Conservatives, who warn that the move will place an undue burden on charities and voluntary groups. While public sector bodies such as the NHS and local councils will receive compensation for the additional costs, charities providing essential services under local authority contracts will not be reimbursed.

A survey by the Welsh Council for Voluntary Action (WCVA) found that 84% of voluntary organisations are concerned about how they will manage the NI increase.

Senedd debate on reimbursement

Next week, the Welsh Conservatives will bring forward a Senedd debate urging the Welsh Labour Government to press Westminster for financial support for Welsh charities, not-for-profits, and voluntary organisations. The motion argues these groups should be classified under the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) definition of public sector employees to qualify for reimbursement.

Welsh Conservative Shadow Secretary for Economy, Energy, and Welsh Language, Samuel Kurtz MS, said:

“Welsh charities, not-for-profits, and voluntary organisations play a vital role in delivering public services that the most vulnerable in society depend upon.

“Labour’s decision to increase employer National Insurance contributions will have a detrimental impact on the future and viability of these organisations.

“The Welsh Conservatives are clear: Labour must ensure that Welsh charities, not-for-profits, and voluntary organisations are reimbursed for this rise in employer National Insurance contributions.”

Sector voices concern

The WCVA has also warned that the NI increase could put crucial community services at risk.

A WCVA spokesperson said: “WCVA is deeply concerned about the impact of increased Employers’ National Insurance contributions on voluntary sector organisations across Wales. Many of these organisations already face significant financial pressures, and this increase threatens to put additional strain on their resources and potentially jeopardise vital services delivered to communities.

“We have strongly urged both the UK and Welsh Governments to recognise the invaluable role the voluntary sector plays, especially in partnership with public services. We believe it is critical for voluntary organisations delivering public services to be treated equitably and included in any financial support measures, ensuring they are not disproportionately disadvantaged by these policy changes.

“WCVA welcomes the debate in the Senedd and hopes it will lead to productive discussions and practical solutions to protect the voluntary sector’s essential contribution to Welsh society.”

Motion to be debated

The Senedd motion, set for debate next week, states:

  • Notes the UK Government’s increase to employer National Insurance contributions, coming into effect for the 2025-26 tax year.
  • Recognises the detrimental impact the increase will have on Welsh charities, not-for-profits, and voluntary organisations.
  • Calls on the Welsh Government to make urgent representations to the UK Government to ensure that these organisations delivering public services are included in the ONS-defined public sector category and are reimbursed for the rise in employer National Insurance contributions.

The debate will determine whether Welsh Labour will push for financial support to shield the voluntary sector from these additional costs.

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News

Local Authority is ‘hoarding cash’ as Council Tax rises by 9.35%, says MS

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DEMANDS FOR REFORM AS COUNCIL’S £83 MILLION RESERVES REVEALED

PEMBROKESHIRE residents are bracing for a 9.35% council tax rise, despite local authorities across Wales holding more than £2 billion in reserves. The increase, among the highest in Wales, comes as families struggle with soaring living costs and a series of consecutive tax hikes.

Paul Davies MS: Welsh Government should do more to help keep Council Tax as low as possible (Image: File)

Local Senedd Member Paul Davies has called for urgent reform, criticising the Welsh Government’s Local Government Funding Formula and urging councils to use their reserves to ease the burden on taxpayers.

‘UNFAIR AND UNSUSTAINABLE’

Mr Davies said: “Under the Welsh Government, the Local Government Funding Formula remains broken.

“It cannot be right that people in Pembrokeshire face such a huge increase in their council tax while councils across Wales are sitting on over £2 billion in usable reserves.

“The Welsh Government must do more to keep council tax as low as possible by encouraging the use of reserves, improving efficiency within councils, and promoting the sharing of resources across council boundaries.”

CALLS FOR CHANGE

The Welsh Conservatives have consistently opposed large council tax increases, calling for an independent review of the Local Government Funding Formula. They argue that councils should:

  • Use reserves to reduce tax rises.
  • Improve efficiency by cutting unnecessary spending.
  • Increase cooperation between councils to share services and lower costs.

RISING RESERVES, RISING BILLS

For years, Pembrokeshire had the lowest council tax in Wales, but after a 12.5% rise in 2024-25, it has surged significantly. Despite this, Pembrokeshire County Council holds £82.6 million in usable reserves, equivalent to 28.4% of its annual service expenditure.

In 2016-17, the council held just £47 million in reserves, rising to £83 million in 2021-22. Critics argue that this surplus should be used to relieve financial pressures rather than imposing further tax hikes.

With councils under fire for hoarding cash while demanding more from residents, pressure is mounting on the Welsh Government to overhaul funding and prevent further unaffordable rises.

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