News
Reform UK surges to seven-point lead ahead of Senedd election
Reform UK has opened up a seven-point lead over Labour in the latest polling for the Wales-wide Senedd election, with Plaid Cymru trailing by a single point, according to an exclusive Beaufort Research survey for Nation.Cymru.
The poll places Reform on 30%—up five points since the previous Beaufort poll in June—while Labour sits on 23%, down four points. Plaid Cymru stands at 22% (+1), the Conservatives at 11% (-2), the Green Party at 9% (+3), the Liberal Democrats at 4% (no change), and other parties at 1% (-1).
A seat projection using software developed for Cavendish Consulting suggests Reform would emerge as the largest party with 37 seats, followed by Plaid Cymru with 25, Labour with 24, the Conservatives with 7, the Green Party with 2, and the Liberal Democrats with 1. If the projection proves accurate, First Minister Eluned Morgan would not be re-elected to the Senedd.
Despite Reform’s lead, the party would not command enough seats to form a government outright. Analysts suggest the most likely outcome would be a partnership or agreement between Plaid Cymru and Labour. Constituency-level projections are detailed at the end of this article.
Regional and demographic variations
Support for parties varies significantly across Wales, with differences according to region, gender, age, social grade, and Welsh language ability.
For polling purposes, Wales was divided into three regions: North and Mid Wales; South West Wales and the Valleys; and Cardiff and South East Wales.
- North and Mid Wales: Reform 27%, Plaid Cymru 25%, Labour 16%, Conservative 13%, Green 13%, Liberal Democrat 5%, other parties 1%.
- South West Wales and Valleys: Reform 28%, Labour 26%, Plaid Cymru 25%, Conservative 10%, Green 7%, Lib Dem 3%, other parties 1%.
- Cardiff and South East Wales: Reform 37%, Labour 26%, Plaid Cymru 16%, Conservative 9%, Green 8%, other parties 0%.
Gender Differences
Men were slightly more likely to back Reform than women, with 32% of men supporting the party compared to 29% of women. Among women, the Green Party enjoyed stronger support at 12%.
Age breakdown
Support also varied across age groups. Among 16 to 34-year-olds, Labour led on 29%, Plaid Cymru on 26%, and Reform on 17%. In the 35–54 bracket, Reform led with 33%, while Labour and Plaid Cymru each had 21%. For voters aged 55 and over, Reform was on 34%, Labour 22%, and Plaid Cymru 22%.
Social grade influence
Social grade strongly influenced voting patterns. Among more affluent ABC1 voters, Labour and Plaid Cymru each polled 26%, with Reform on 22%. In contrast, among C2DE voters, Reform commanded 39%, far ahead of Labour on 20% and Plaid Cymru on 18%.
Welsh language impact
Welsh speakers overwhelmingly favoured Plaid Cymru at 45%, with Reform on just 19% and Labour 16%. Among non-Welsh speakers, Reform led on 33%, Labour on 25%, and Plaid Cymru on 16%.
Comparisons with other polls
The Beaufort Research figures contrast with last month’s YouGov poll for ITV Wales, which showed Plaid Cymru narrowly leading on 30%, followed by Reform on 29%, Labour 14%, and the Conservatives 11%.
Seat Projections
- Afan, Ogwr, Rhondda: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
- Bangor, Conwy, Mon: Plaid Cymru 2, Reform 2, Conservative 1, Labour 1
- Blaenau Gwent, Caerffili, Rhymni: Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 2, Reform 2
- Brycheiniog, Tawe, Nedd: Reform 3, Labour 1, Plaid Cymru 1, Lib Dem 1
- Caerdydd Ffynon Taf: Labour 2, Reform 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Green 1
- Caerdydd Penarth: Labour 2, Reform 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Green 1
- Casnewydd Islwyn: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
- Ceredigion, Penfro: Plaid Cymru 3, Reform 2, Conservative 1
- Clwyd: Reform 2, Conservative 2, Labour 1, Plaid Cymru 1
- Fflint, Wrecsam: Reform 2, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Conservative 1
- Gwynedd, Maldwyn: Plaid Cymru 4, Reform 2
- Gwyr, Abertawe: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
- Pen-y-bont, Bro Morgannwg: Reform 2, Labour 2, Conservative 1, Plaid Cymru 1
- Pontypridd, Cynon, Merthyr: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
- Sir Fynwy, Torfaen: Reform 2, Labour 2, Conservative 1, Plaid Cymru 1
- Sir Gaerfyrddin: Plaid Cymru 3, Reform 2, Labour 1
Polling Methodology
The headline figures are based on responses from 533 adults across Wales, interviewed online between 22 September and 12 October. Only those aged 16 and over who expressed a party preference and rated their certainty to vote in a Senedd election as 9 or 10 out of 10 were included. Respondents who were undecided, unlikely to vote, or less than fully certain were excluded.
Business
End of an era as St Davids Cake Co closes after heartfelt farewell
Founder Kayleigh Salmon thanks loyal customers after building beloved bakery from home kitchen at just 17
A MUCH-LOVED Pembrokeshire cake business has closed its doors after an emotional final day that left customers, friends and supporters sharing messages of thanks and sadness.
St Davids Cake Co announced the end of an era this week, with founder Kayleigh Salmon thanking the local community that helped turn a teenage dream into a successful small business.
In an emotional social media post, Kayleigh said she was overwhelmed by the support shown during the final day of trading.
She wrote: “Just WOW, honestly today was absolutely amazing.
“I can’t believe this amazing small community we built from starting in my home kitchen at the age of 17.
“I never believed little me could achieve this.”
Photos shared by the business showed bouquets of flowers, cards, gifts and a bottle of fizz from well-wishers, while friends gathered in the shop for a heartfelt send-off.
Kayleigh paid tribute to her close friend Ells, who supported her both during childhood and throughout the business journey.

She said: “I just want to thank my great friend Ells, for all the help, support and encouragement over the last 10 years.
“For her to help me so many years later in my shop it was a real pleasure to have her alongside me for our final day. I’m forever grateful for our friendship.”
The closure prompted an outpouring of affection from customers, many describing the bakery as a treasured part of visits to St Davids.
Jenny Pearson said: “Really going to miss your fabulous cakes. Even though I’m gluten intolerant and shouldn’t have eaten them, they were well worth it.”
Bethan Mayer wrote: “Gutted I couldn’t get to you, will miss your cookies.”
Another customer, Sara Hawkridge, described the bakery’s treats as “the BEST”, adding: “You should be very proud.”
Others wished Kayleigh luck for “whatever you do next”, with many encouraging her to enjoy some well-earned time off after years of hard work.
While the closure marks the end of St Davids Cake Co, the reaction online suggests Kayleigh’s cakes — and the community she built around them — will not be forgotten anytime soon.
Business
Popular Pembrokeshire veterinary practice announces new owners after 17 years
A WELL-KNOWN independent veterinary practice in Pembrokeshire has announced a change of ownership after nearly two decades of caring for local pets.
All Pets Vet Care revealed that founder Billa will soon hand over the reins after 17 years, with experienced local vets Alice Richards and Pete Howe set to become the practice’s new owners.
The practice said both Alice and Pete share Billa’s commitment to maintaining the independent, friendly and community-focused ethos that has helped make the surgery a trusted name among pet owners across Pembrokeshire.
Alice and Pete are both highly experienced vets who have worked in Pembrokeshire for more than ten years, meaning many clients may already know them.
The team stressed that there will be no change to the care provided, with the practice continuing to offer the same personal service and out-of-hours care for registered clients.
In a message to customers, the practice said: “Nothing about the care you receive is changing – it will still be the same personal, friendly service.”
The new owners said they are looking forward to meeting clients and their pets in the coming weeks.
Pet owners will also have an opportunity to meet Pete at the practice’s Open Day on Friday, June 27. Alice will be unable to attend due to a long-planned charity bike ride, although the team said she would “be there in spirit.”
Photo caption:
New chapter: Local vets Alice Richards and Pete Howe are taking over ownership of All Pets Vet Care after 17 years under founder Billa (Pic: All Pets Vet Care).
Community
Beating of the Bounds brings music, boats and tradition to Haverfordwest
CENTURIES-OLD CEREMONY DRAWS FAMILIES TO THE RIVERSIDE
HAVERFORDWEST’S historic Beating of the Bounds returned on Sunday (Jun 14), with boats, music and crowds gathering along the riverside for one of the town’s most distinctive civic traditions.
The ceremony saw the Mayor of Haverfordwest and Admiral of the Port, Cllr Randell Thomas-Turner, lead a water-borne procession along the Western Cleddau to the White Stone, the painted boundary marker of the Borough and Port of Haverfordwest.


He was joined by Deputy Mayor Cllr Adam Benson-Davies, Town Sheriff Cllr Dani Thomas-Turner, Deputy Lieutenant Patricia Porter OBE and her daughter, the Chairman of Pembrokeshire County Council, the Chairman of the Pembrokeshire Agricultural Society, Reverend Sophie Whitmarsh, Andrew Merfyn Phillips the High Sheriff of Dyfed, and other invited guests.
A flotilla of boats from Neyland, Milford Haven and other parts of the Haven made its way upriver for the ceremony, with civic leaders and dignitaries travelling out to the White Stone.



Upon reaching the marker, Reverend Sophie Whitmarsh, the Mayor’s Chaplain, gave a blessing as the boats gathered around the painted white rock.
Cllr Thomas-Turner then delivered the traditional proclamation, formally reaffirming the town’s ancient boundaries and rights.
He declared: “Let it be known that I come to the White Stone and do this day acknowledge and maintain the ancient bounds and privilege of the Borough and Port of Haverfordwest.”
The ceremony was accompanied by a busy family event at the Quayside Car Park, where Pure West Radio broadcast live from the riverside and crowds enjoyed face painting, bouncy castles, ice cream and food stalls.



Local artist and musician Steve Bartram performed during the afternoon, while children from Vision Arts entertained the crowd with songs from Disney films and musical theatre, including I’ve Got No Strings from Pinocchio.
Milford Haven Town Band also performed, adding a traditional soundtrack to the occasion as the historic ceremony unfolded on the river.

With the Bristol Trader open and people sitting out on benches along the river enjoying the evening atmosphere, the event brought a relaxed summer feel to the town centre.
Security for the event was provided by RM Training and Security Solutions, helping ensure the celebrations ran safely for families and visitors.
First aid cover was provided by St John Ambulance Cymru, with four team members on site throughout the event.

Beating the Bounds is an ancient civic custom, once used to mark and remember parish or town boundaries before modern maps and records. In Haverfordwest, the tradition survives in a particularly distinctive form, with the Mayor travelling by boat to the White Stone to acknowledge the historic bounds and privileges of the borough and port.
This year’s event combined formal civic ceremony with music, family entertainment, river activity and a strong community turnout, helping to keep one of Pembrokeshire’s best-known traditions alive for another generation.


Photos by The Pembrokeshire Herald, Aad Oostermeijer, Cllr Thomas Tudor and Darthy Media
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