News

Reform UK surges to seven-point lead ahead of Senedd election

Published

2 months ago

October 21, 2025

Reform UK has opened up a seven-point lead over Labour in the latest polling for the Wales-wide Senedd election, with Plaid Cymru trailing by a single point, according to an exclusive Beaufort Research survey for Nation.Cymru.

The poll places Reform on 30%—up five points since the previous Beaufort poll in June—while Labour sits on 23%, down four points. Plaid Cymru stands at 22% (+1), the Conservatives at 11% (-2), the Green Party at 9% (+3), the Liberal Democrats at 4% (no change), and other parties at 1% (-1).

A seat projection using software developed for Cavendish Consulting suggests Reform would emerge as the largest party with 37 seats, followed by Plaid Cymru with 25, Labour with 24, the Conservatives with 7, the Green Party with 2, and the Liberal Democrats with 1. If the projection proves accurate, First Minister Eluned Morgan would not be re-elected to the Senedd.

Despite Reform’s lead, the party would not command enough seats to form a government outright. Analysts suggest the most likely outcome would be a partnership or agreement between Plaid Cymru and Labour. Constituency-level projections are detailed at the end of this article.

Regional and demographic variations

Support for parties varies significantly across Wales, with differences according to region, gender, age, social grade, and Welsh language ability.

For polling purposes, Wales was divided into three regions: North and Mid Wales; South West Wales and the Valleys; and Cardiff and South East Wales.

North and Mid Wales: Reform 27%, Plaid Cymru 25%, Labour 16%, Conservative 13%, Green 13%, Liberal Democrat 5%, other parties 1%.
South West Wales and Valleys: Reform 28%, Labour 26%, Plaid Cymru 25%, Conservative 10%, Green 7%, Lib Dem 3%, other parties 1%.
Cardiff and South East Wales: Reform 37%, Labour 26%, Plaid Cymru 16%, Conservative 9%, Green 8%, other parties 0%.

Gender Differences
Men were slightly more likely to back Reform than women, with 32% of men supporting the party compared to 29% of women. Among women, the Green Party enjoyed stronger support at 12%.

Age breakdown
Support also varied across age groups. Among 16 to 34-year-olds, Labour led on 29%, Plaid Cymru on 26%, and Reform on 17%. In the 35–54 bracket, Reform led with 33%, while Labour and Plaid Cymru each had 21%. For voters aged 55 and over, Reform was on 34%, Labour 22%, and Plaid Cymru 22%.

Social grade influence
Social grade strongly influenced voting patterns. Among more affluent ABC1 voters, Labour and Plaid Cymru each polled 26%, with Reform on 22%. In contrast, among C2DE voters, Reform commanded 39%, far ahead of Labour on 20% and Plaid Cymru on 18%.

Welsh language impact
Welsh speakers overwhelmingly favoured Plaid Cymru at 45%, with Reform on just 19% and Labour 16%. Among non-Welsh speakers, Reform led on 33%, Labour on 25%, and Plaid Cymru on 16%.

Comparisons with other polls
The Beaufort Research figures contrast with last month’s YouGov poll for ITV Wales, which showed Plaid Cymru narrowly leading on 30%, followed by Reform on 29%, Labour 14%, and the Conservatives 11%.

Seat Projections

Afan, Ogwr, Rhondda: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
Bangor, Conwy, Mon: Plaid Cymru 2, Reform 2, Conservative 1, Labour 1
Blaenau Gwent, Caerffili, Rhymni: Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 2, Reform 2
Brycheiniog, Tawe, Nedd: Reform 3, Labour 1, Plaid Cymru 1, Lib Dem 1
Caerdydd Ffynon Taf: Labour 2, Reform 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Green 1
Caerdydd Penarth: Labour 2, Reform 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Green 1
Casnewydd Islwyn: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
Ceredigion, Penfro: Plaid Cymru 3, Reform 2, Conservative 1
Clwyd: Reform 2, Conservative 2, Labour 1, Plaid Cymru 1
Fflint, Wrecsam: Reform 2, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Conservative 1
Gwynedd, Maldwyn: Plaid Cymru 4, Reform 2
Gwyr, Abertawe: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
Pen-y-bont, Bro Morgannwg: Reform 2, Labour 2, Conservative 1, Plaid Cymru 1
Pontypridd, Cynon, Merthyr: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
Sir Fynwy, Torfaen: Reform 2, Labour 2, Conservative 1, Plaid Cymru 1
Sir Gaerfyrddin: Plaid Cymru 3, Reform 2, Labour 1

Polling Methodology
The headline figures are based on responses from 533 adults across Wales, interviewed online between 22 September and 12 October. Only those aged 16 and over who expressed a party preference and rated their certainty to vote in a Senedd election as 9 or 10 out of 10 were included. Respondents who were undecided, unlikely to vote, or less than fully certain were excluded.

Health

Learning disability packs rolled out across local emergency departments

Published

8 hours ago

December 9, 2025

Tom Sinclair

FOLLOWING a successful pilot at Glangwili Hospital’s emergency department, Hywel Dda University Health Board (UHB) has rolled out Learning Disability Packs across Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, and Pembrokeshire.

These packs are designed by the health board’s Learning Disabilities Team to make emergency hospital visits less stressful and more accessible for adults with learning disabilities. They provide clear, simple information and reassurance for patients and their families.

The pack is available at Bronglais, Glangwili, Withybush hospital’s emergency departments (A&E) and Prince Philip Hospital’s Acute Medical Assessment Unit (AMAU).

It is designed to provide clear, simple information and reassurance and includes:

Easy Read information
Pictures and symbols to aid understanding
Details about what will happen during the visit
Information about staff who can help

To ensure the packs are offered promptly, the Learning Disabilities Team is working closely with front-of-house staff and holding staff drop-in sessions. Posters will also promote their availability throughout departments and patients, or their carer can ask for a pack at the reception desk.

“These packs were developed to help make emergency care less stressful and more accessible for adults with learning disabilities. We’re delighted these packs are now available across our hospitals,” said Melissa Evans, Learning Disabilities Health Facilitation and Liaison Team Manager, at Hywel Dda UHB.

Anyone with a learning disability is also encouraged to complete a Health Profile and share it with health workers when visiting hospital. This profile includes essential information for health workers and can be used across all health and social care appointments.

Melissa added: “A Health Profile is an important communication tool for people with a learning disability. It can include information about how to communicate, their medication and allergies, and the reasonable adjustments they may need.

“Everyone is different, so we encourage anyone with a learning disability to fill in a Health Profile and take it with them when you need to go to hospital or see health and social care staff.”

Health Profiles are available to download at https://www.improvementcymru.net/health-profile along with advice on how to fill it in.

Health

Paediatricians urge parents in Wales to get children vaccinated against flu this winter

Published

10 hours ago

December 9, 2025

Tom Sinclair

PAEDIATRICIANS are urging parents and carers across Wales to ensure their children receive the flu vaccine, as early-season data shows high rates of flu among babies, children and young people.

The Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health (RCPCH) has published a new fact sheet for families in Wales, amid concerns that flu is already circulating widely in communities. Clinicians say many people still underestimate the seriousness of flu, wrongly believing it to be little more than a heavy cold.

However, flu can cause severe illness in children and lead to complications such as pneumonia and bronchitis. Each winter, thousands of children across the UK – including those with no underlying health conditions – require hospital care because of flu.

The RCPCH fact sheet aims to provide clear, evidence-based information for families and includes:

• Who is eligible for the flu vaccine
• Where to get vaccinated in Wales
• What to do if an appointment has been missed
• Answers to common questions on safety and effectiveness

The guidance is available now and comes as health services prepare for what is expected to be a challenging winter.

Dr Malcolm Gajraj, RCPCH Officer for Wales, said: “Flu is not something to take lightly. We are already seeing considerable cases of flu among children in Wales, and we know from experience that flu can lead to serious illness and hospital stays. The vaccine is safe, effective and the best way to protect your child. By getting your child vaccinated, you’re helping to keep them well and reduce the spread of flu in our communities.”

Entertainment

Freyja’s ‘Aquantis’ named winner of Torch Theatre’s festive design competition

Published

10 hours ago

December 9, 2025

Tom Sinclair

TEN-YEAR-OLD Freyja from St Francis RC School has been crowned the winner of the Torch Theatre’s Design an Evil Sea Creature competition – beating more than 300 imaginative entries that ranged from cyclops creations to fanged dolphins and double-headed stingrays.

Her design, Aquantis, caught the eye of the judges and will now be brought to life on stage in this year’s Christmas pantomime, Rapunzel, at the Torch Theatre.

Freyja said she was “ecstatic” to hear the news.
“It was really good news to have. Drawing and creative writing is something that I enjoy and have a passion for, so to be given this opportunity and to win was incredible. I’d like to say well done to everyone else who entered – it was a fun competition to be part of.”

A sea monster with a story

So what exactly is the Aquantis?

“She was once a tiny kraken with a big heart,” Freyja explained. “She has special powers and shoots slime balls that can paralyse her victims – and during the paralysis phase they are completely under Aquantis’ control. She swims joyfully through the enchanting depths of the sea with a love of exploring every corner of the ocean.”

Freyja said her imagination and a recent snorkelling trip inspired the creature.
“My idea for the Aquantis came through my imagination, after deciding what backstory I wanted to create for her. I can’t say I’ve seen any sea monsters up close, but I’ve recently been snorkelling in the Red Sea so that helped give the Aquantis an edge. I’m really honoured to have been chosen and can’t wait to see it all come together on stage.”

Workshops inspire young artists

This year’s project was delivered in partnership with the Arts Society West Wales, whose representatives joined Torch Theatre professionals for day-long creative workshops in three Milford Haven primary schools. The aim was to help pupils imagine, design and model their own scary sea monsters.

The children’s enthusiasm and creativity were clear throughout the sessions, with dozens of colourful, sci-fi-inspired designs produced. All entries are now on display in the Torch Theatre Gallery.

Torch Theatre’s Artistic Director, Chelsey Gillard, said she was so impressed by the range of ideas that several of the friendlier creatures will also feature in Rapunzel, voiced by members of the Torch Youth Theatre.

Rapunzel this Christmas

Rapunzel runs at the Torch Theatre from Saturday 6 December to Sunday 28 December.
Tickets: £24.50 | £20.00 concessions | £78.00 family.
Relaxed Environment Performance: Saturday 13 December at 2:00pm.
BSL Interpreted Performance (Liz May): Tuesday 16 December, 6:00pm.