Politics
Reeves under pressure as leaked OBR papers cast doubt on Budget ‘black hole’ claim
Chancellor faces calls for investigation after surplus revealed weeks before tax rises
RACHEL REEVES is facing mounting pressure tonight after leaked documents suggested the Treasury may have overstated the scale of Britain’s financial problems ahead of last week’s Budget.
The Chancellor repeatedly warned of a “black hole” in the public finances during a series of interviews in November, arguing the UK needed “fiscal headroom” to protect against economic shocks. The claim was central to the Government’s justification for around £26 billion in tax rises, including changes to capital gains, business taxation, and duties on property.
Leak reveals £4.2bn surplus
However, a leak from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), first reported over the weekend, shows the UK was actually running a £4.2 billion surplus as recently as late October – weeks before Reeves delivered her Budget.
The revelation has triggered a storm at Westminster, with opposition parties accusing the Chancellor of misleading the public and Parliament. Critics say Reeves used the prospect of a large deficit to lay the groundwork for tax rises that may not have been necessary.
Ministers and civil servants have told national outlets they were not informed about the surplus ahead of the Budget, leading to tensions inside Government.
Reeves denies lying
Speaking to broadcasters on Monday, Reeves insisted she had not lied, saying she had been “honest and frank” about the need to rebuild the nation’s fiscal resilience.
She argued that an OBR downgrade in productivity forecasts meant expected tax receipts were weaker, making it “prudent” to increase fiscal headroom now. “We cannot gamble with the economy,” she said.
Labour sources have also pointed to expected rises in welfare costs and public-sector spending pressures.
Ministerial code questions
Opposition figures are now calling for an investigation into whether the Chancellor breached the ministerial code, which requires ministers to give accurate information.
Some have gone further, suggesting the Financial Conduct Authority may need to consider the impact of potentially misleading statements on markets. The Government has dismissed those suggestions as “political theatre”.
The row intensified after the head of the OBR resigned on Sunday, describing the leak as a “technical but serious” breach of confidentiality. The timing has raised fresh questions about who knew what – and when.
Storm not over
The Prime Minister has publicly backed his Chancellor, insisting the Budget was based on the best information available at the time.
But with senior economists warning that public confidence in fiscal transparency has been damaged, and with several Cabinet ministers privately expressing frustration over communication inside the Treasury, the controversy shows no sign of fading.
Parliament is expected to press for further answers when Reeves appears before the Treasury Select Committee later this week.
Politics
Summer recess: What is it and what does the Senedd do now?
SUMMER recess is here, meaning Senedd Members will not formally meet in Cardiff Bay for the next eight weeks – so what will they do instead?
The Senedd has largely got back into the full swing of things following May’s election.
Over the last three months, the new First Minister was sworn in, the Llywydd was chosen, and committees have been formed – but, with recess now here, the Senedd will break until September.
Recess is the term for the periods where the Senedd does not formally sit, meaning MSs do not meet in Cardiff Bay for First Minister’s Questions, debates, or committee meetings.
Recesses happen throughout the year, with the largest being the multi-week break in the summer – running from the end of July until early September.
Other breaks include Christmas, Easter, and Whitsun.
The 2026 summer recess began on Monday July 20 and runs until Sunday September 13.
However, Senedd Members are not simply on holiday during the recess, with representatives often using the time to carry out work in their constituencies.
Senedd Members each have an office within their constituency where they employ staff to help them with their work and to help constituents.
During each recess, members will typically return to their constituencies and focus on public engagement and local issues.
However, due to the longer length of the summer recess compared to the smaller breaks, it is likely some MSs will take some holiday too.
Recess does not mean MSs simply stop working, in fact with them heading home to their constituencies you might see them about more than during term time when their time is split between the constituency and Cardiff Bay.
Following the 2026 election, each constituency now has six MSs and you can contact any of them – regardless of what party you voted for.
The Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni constituency is represented by Delyth Jewell, Lindsay Whittle, Niamh Salkeld (all Plaid Cymru), and Llyr Powell, Catherine Cullen, and Joshua Kim (all Reform).
The Casnewydd Islwyn seat is represented by Dan Thomas and Art Wright (Reform), Peredur Owen Griffiths and Lyn Ackerman (Plaid Cymru), Jayne Bryant (Welsh Labour) and Natasha Asghar (Welsh Conservatives).
The business committee confirmed the recess dates for the remainder of the year:
- Autumn half-term: Monday October 26 to Sunday November 1.
Provisional dates for the Christmas and spring half-term 2027 recesses have also been provided by the Business Committee:
- Christmas recess: Monday December 21, 2026 to Sunday January 10, 2027.
- Spring half-term: Monday February 8, 2027 to Sunday February 14 2027.
Business
Appeal against Saundersfoot sauna considered and online petition set up
A NATIONAL park refusal of the permanent siting of an award-winning Pembrokeshire seaside village outdoor sauna, which has been featured in the national press, is likely to be appealed, its owner has said.
Back in June 2024, a temporary two-year permission for a mobile wood-fired sauna at overlooking the sea at Saundersfoot harbour was granted by Pembrokeshire Coast National Park’s development management committee.
Since then, a further application by Kerry Evans of Hwyl Outdoor Sauna to make the siting permanent was submitted to national park planners, which was refused following an officer recommendation at the July committee meeting.
Back in February, the business, set up by former superyacht worker and mum-of-two Kerry won Sauna of the Year 2026/27 at the Wales Prestige Awards, and the facility has featured in the national press.
The permanent siting proposal had gained support from the public saying it was “a major asset to the village,” and “a wellness landmark for Saundersfoot,” and “a unique offering that attracts visitors to the beach and harbour”.
It was refused on the grounds the sauna “in its current form and with the proposed location of the sauna, is considered to result in a landscape impact that harms the setting of the Saundersfoot Conservation Area,” it was “located in a position which reduces public access along the existing promenade route,” and an updated, since its previous permission, need for a Flood Consequences Assessment which hadn’t been addressed.

At the meeting, applicant Kerry Evans said the sauna had been a “successful local business,” which had attracted thousands to the village with a thriving community around it, with donations to charities and local fundraisers.
She said the current location against beach-side railings was “fundamental to its success,” providing users with “privacy and dignity,” while allowing them stunning views across the bay.
After the scheme was refused committee members had expressed their hopes a different harbourside location could be found for the sauna.
Speaking after the planning refusal, Kerry Evans said she had started the early stages of a potential appeal over the decision by writing to Planning and Environment Decisions Wales (PEDW), adding: “We had amazing support from Cllr Chris Williams and [former county councillor] Phil Baker, [and a petition of some 600 signatures in support]; we had all the right people in the right places but it wasn’t actually been taken on board.”
On the reasons for refusal, Kerry said the flood risk issue seemed “a little bit nonsensical,” with the sauna operating for two years without any issues, the mobile sauna being moved in poor weather conditions as “it would be foolish to leave it there”.
On potential alternative locations, she said: “If there was somewhere suitable I’m obviously happy to look at that, but having explored it quite extensively there aren’t many areas; there’s a need for privacy, I have no control about who would be looking through the window.
“Part of the magic of that sauna is the view and the magic of the Pembrokeshire coast with the amazing light; people feeling slightly uptight come out relaxed, there’s a sense of space and connection with the outside world, which is hugely important for us as human beings.”
She went on to say: “We’re trying to arrange a meeting with the officers and the CEO of the harbour,” adding: “Everyone said ‘we want this business to work,’ if they’ve got a genius idea, I’m open to suggestions.
“To me it seems like a real shame it’s been refused, the only material change is it’s now proven to be a safe and successful business.
“It’s a frustration, all that hard work is being put in jeopardy by this decision.”
Since the refusal, a change.org petition entitled Save Hwyl outdoor sauna Saundersfoot, has been set up, attracting more than 300 signatures to date.
News
Stephen Kinnock appointed Secretary of State for Wales in Burnham Cabinet reshuffle
Stephen Kinnock has been named the new Secretary of State for Wales after Prime Minister Andy Burnham unveiled his first Cabinet reshuffle, replacing Jo Stevens following two years in the post.
The appointment comes as the new Prime Minister continues to shape his government after entering Downing Street, with the Wales Office among a number of departments seeing changes at ministerial level.
Mr Kinnock, the Labour MP for Aberafan Maesteg, takes over responsibility for representing Welsh interests at the Cabinet table and overseeing the UK Government’s relationship with the Welsh Government.
The 55-year-old has served in Parliament since 2015 and has held a number of ministerial positions. Before joining the Cabinet, he served as a minister in both the Home Office and the Department of Health and Social Care, where he was involved in immigration, public health and NHS-related policy.
He is also well known as the son of former Labour leader Neil Kinnock, one of Wales’ most prominent political figures, and former European Commissioner Glenys Kinnock.
Mr Kinnock replaces Jo Stevens, who has served as Secretary of State for Wales since 2024. During her tenure she worked on issues including economic investment, the transition to green energy, rail infrastructure and cooperation between the UK and Welsh Governments.
The change follows Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s first Cabinet reshuffle since taking office, with several senior ministerial appointments announced as he begins setting out the priorities of his new administration.
As Secretary of State for Wales, Mr Kinnock will be expected to play a key role in discussions over economic growth, energy, transport, the future of the steel industry, and constitutional matters affecting Wales. He is also likely to be heavily involved in negotiations between Westminster and Cardiff Bay as the Burnham Government develops its agenda.
His appointment will be closely watched across Wales, including in Pembrokeshire, where businesses, local authorities and public services will be looking for signs of how the new Government intends to deliver on its promises for investment, infrastructure and economic development.
Further announcements on the new Government’s programme are expected in the coming days.
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