SEISMIC political changes have happened both in Wales and in Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire in the 2026 Senedd elections, with a Plaid victory, Reform coming second and Labour suffering.

In a battle for six seats in the new Ceredigion Penfro constituency, Plaid Cymru gained three seats, Reform two and Welsh Conservatives one.

For the May 7 elections, Wales had 16 constituencies instead of the previous 40.

Democracy and Boundary Commission Cymru created the new constituencies for Wales and the Senedd now has 96 members instead of 60, each constituency electing six members.

For Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion, the new Ceredigion Penfro constituency is made up of the Ceredigion Preseli UK Parliamentary constituency and the Mid and South Pembrokeshire UK Parliamentary constituency, stretching from north of Aberystwyth to Angle in the southwest and Llanteg in the southeast.

The new voting system is based on a ‘closed proportional list system’; you vote for a political party (rather than individuals) or an independent candidate, the ballot paper showing the full list of candidates in your constituency.

If a party wins enough votes, they win one or more seats in the Senedd; if an independent candidate wins enough votes, they win a seat in the Senedd; seats reflecting the percentage of votes each party or independent candidate gets.

There were 44 candidates for the Ceredigion Penfro constituency, with a total of six seats up for grabs, the results announced at Llandysul’s Ysgol Bro Teifi, with one high profile loss former First Minister Eluned Morgan losing her Labour seat.

Out of 89,402 votes cast, Plaid Cymru gained 31,943; Reform 23,003; Welsh Conservatives 14,789; Labour 6,495; Green 6,324; Liberal Democrats 4,613; Gwlad 802; Heritage Party 442; Aaron Carey 368; George Alexander Chadzy 286, and Paul Haywood Dowson 88.

The six candidates elected saw three Plaid seats, two Reform and one Welsh Conservatives: Elin Jones, Kerry Ferguson, and Anna Nicholl Plaid Cymru; Susan Claire Archibald and Paul Marr Reform; Welsh Conservatives Paul Windsor Davies.

Wales-wide, Plaid gained 43 seats, Reform 34, Labour nine, Conservatives seven, Greens two, and Liberal Democrats one.

After the Ceredigion Penfro results were declared Elin Jones spoke at Llandysul, paying tribute to Eluned Morgan and her “energetic campaign,” and also had kind words for Conservative hopeful Sam Kurtz who failed to retain a Senedd seat.

“On a personal level, I just want to say to Sam Kurtz: I will miss you in the Senedd, you’ve been a fine representative.”

Reform’s Susan Claire Archibald, formerly a member of Pembroke Town Council, spoke on behalf of herself, fellow Reform winner Paul Marr, and the party’s supporters, saying the supporters would need “new shoes,” given Ceredigion Penfro’s “ginormous constituency”.

She added: “Paul and I are obviously very excited to get to work to representing our constituency of Ceredigion and Penfro.”

Paul Davies has thanked all who voted for his party, saying he was “deeply grateful for every single vote cast,” but added: “It has been a difficult day for our party, and unfortunately my friend and colleague Samuel Kurtz has not been re-elected.

“West Wales has lost a committed and passionate advocate in Sam. He has been an outstanding representative for the region, and I have no doubt he will return to frontline politics in the future.”

Mr Davies has, since the results came in, announced he is putting his name forward to be the next presiding officer in the Senedd.

Following former First Minister Eluned Morgan’s defeat in Ceredigion Penfro, Ken Skates has been appointed interim leader.

Independent group leader says she has “never been a member of any political party”

QUESTIONS have been raised over the political background of one of the councillors seeking to become the next Leader of Pembrokeshire County Council after photographs resurfaced showing her attending a Jeremy Corbyn rally holding an anti-Tory placard.

The authority is guaranteed to elect its first female Leader at Friday’s Annual General Meeting, with three women contesting the top job following the end of Cllr Jon Harvey’s two-year term as leader.

The candidates are Cllr Tessa Hodgson, an unaffiliated independent and cabinet member for social services, Conservative group leader Cllr Di Clements, and Cllr Anji Tinley, the recently elected leader of the council’s Independent Political Group.

Tinley was first elected to the council in 2022.

Photos from a Jeremy Corbyn rally held in Haverfordwest ahead of the 2019 General Election show Tinley prominently holding a placard bearing the slogans “KICK THE TORIES OUT!” and “Back Corbyn vote Labour”.

The placard also carried Socialist Worker branding and featured an image of former Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

One photograph shows Tinley standing near the front of the crowd holding the placard, while another shows her at the same event as former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn during his appearance in Castle Square.

The resurfaced photographs have prompted questions over Tinley’s political background and how that sits with her current leadership of the Independent Political Group, which contains councillors from a range of political viewpoints, including former Conservatives.

Political arithmetic

The council chamber remains finely balanced politically following a series of recent deaths and by-elections.

With the Independent Political Group currently holding 18 seats following the death of longstanding member Cllr Brian Hall, whose seat remains vacant pending a by-election, observers believe Tinley would require support from outside her own group to secure victory.

The Conservative group is the smallest organised political group in the chamber and is expected to back its own leader, Cllr Clements, in the opening round of voting.

That could potentially leave Tinley and Hodgson facing a second-round run-off vote — creating the politically unusual scenario in which Tinley may require Conservative support despite the anti-Tory messaging shown in the 2019 photographs.

Tinley responds

Responding to questions from The Herald, Cllr Tinley confirmed she attended the event but rejected suggestions that it reflected her current political role.

She said: “I do not dispute that I attended the event referenced in 2019. This was during the period leading up to a General Election nearly seven years ago, before I entered local politics, and I have never been a member of any political party.

“The political landscape has changed considerably since then. My role in local government today is as an Independent councillor and leader of the Independent Political Group.

“I am independent for a reason: I am not subject to party whipping, and I am free to vote in what I believe are the best interests of the people I represent and of Pembrokeshire as a whole.”

She added: “I do not bring national party politics into council decision-making. Within the Independent Group, there are councillors with a range of political backgrounds and views. Still, at the local government level, we work together independently and make decisions based on what we believe is right for Pembrokeshire rather than on party-political instruction.”

Tinley also suggested relationships within County Hall had become strained during the current administration.

“However, working together with the administration has not happened in chambers during four out of a five-year term,” she said.

She added: “Residents expect councillors to work pragmatically across political differences to deliver for local communities, and that has always been my approach. I have worked constructively with councillors from different political backgrounds and would continue to do so as council leader.”

COUNTY FIFTH HIGHEST IN WALES FOR CASES RECORDED BETWEEN 2020 AND 2025

PEMBROKESHIRE has recorded one of the highest numbers of homelessness applications in Wales linked to relationship breakdown, according to new figures.

Data analysed by family law firm Rayden Solicitors shows that Pembrokeshire County Council received 1,433 homelessness applications where relationship breakdown was recorded as a primary cause between 2020 and 2025.

That places Pembrokeshire fifth highest in Wales, behind Neath Port Talbot, Cardiff, Newport and Carmarthenshire.

The figures also show that Pembrokeshire saw one of the largest increases in Wales over the five-year period, with applications linked to relationship breakdown rising by 35.4%.

Rural pressure

The findings suggest that relationship breakdown is not only a major issue in large urban areas, but is also placing growing pressure on rural and coastal counties such as Pembrokeshire.

Housing pressures in the county are already well documented, with high rents, limited availability, second homes and seasonal demand all contributing to difficulties for local people trying to find somewhere affordable to live.

When a relationship ends, those pressures can become immediate, particularly where one partner has no legal claim to a home, limited savings, or children to care for.

Cohabiting couples

Rayden Solicitors said the issue is especially relevant because more couples are living together without marrying.

Cohabiting families now account for 17.7% of all families in the UK, but unmarried couples do not have the same legal protections as those who are married or in civil partnerships.

Lehna Gardiner, Partner at Rayden Solicitors, said: “Under the current law, cohabitees have limited rights compared to those who are married.

“When married couples divorce, they have significant legal protection within the family law framework. The parties’ and children’s needs are prioritised and the principles of equality and fairness are applied.

“For cohabiting couples, these principles unfortunately do not apply. This specifically leaves the financially weaker party in a vulnerable position in the event of a break-up.”

Wales ranking

Across Wales, 15,780 homelessness applications linked to relationship breakdown were recorded between 2020 and 2025.

Wales ranked second among the regions analysed, behind only the North West of England.

Neath Port Talbot recorded the highest Welsh total, with 2,712 applications, followed by Cardiff with 1,667, Newport with 1,619, Carmarthenshire with 1,480, and Pembrokeshire with 1,433.

Legal warning

Rayden Solicitors said couples living together should consider taking steps to protect themselves, particularly when buying property or sharing financial commitments.

The firm said cohabiting couples should ensure property ownership reflects their intentions, consider a cohabitation agreement, and keep wills up to date.

The study was based on Freedom of Information responses from councils across England and Wales. Councils were asked to provide the number of homelessness applications where relationship breakdown was recorded as a primary cause between 2020 and 2025.