Plaid Cymru projected to emerge as largest party, with Reform UK close behind as Labour risks falling to third place

A MAJOR new opinion poll has sent fresh tremors through Welsh politics, suggesting Welsh Labour could lose its grip on Cardiff Bay for the first time since devolution began in 1999.

The survey, carried out by JL Partners for The Telegraph, projects Plaid Cymru as the largest party in the next Senedd, with Reform UK in second and Labour pushed into third. According to the poll, Plaid is on 28.8% of the vote and projected to win 33 seats, Reform UK is on 24.8% and 29 seats, while Labour trails on 15.9% and 17 seats.

If that result were repeated on polling day, it would mark one of the biggest political upheavals in modern Welsh political history. Labour has led every Welsh administration since the Assembly was created in 1999, but this poll suggests that dominance may now be under serious threat.

The election on May 7 will itself be a landmark one. For the first time, the Senedd will have 96 members rather than 60, with Wales divided into 16 larger constituencies, each electing six Members of the Senedd under the new proportional closed-list system. Voters will cast a single vote for a party or independent candidate, replacing the previous system.

Under the JL Partners projection, Labour is forecast to lead in only one of the new super-constituencies: Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd. Elsewhere, the battle for first place is expected to be dominated by Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.

For west Wales, that will be watched especially closely. Pembrokeshire is now split between the new Preseli Sir Benfro and Ceredigion Penfro constituencies, meaning local voters will be part of two much larger electoral contests than before. Under the reformed system, party performance across a wider area will carry much greater weight.

The projected national vote shares in the poll are:

Plaid Cymru: 28.8%
Reform UK: 24.8%
Labour: 15.9%
Conservatives: 12.3%
Greens: 9.2%
Liberal Democrats: 5.6%
Others: 3.5%

The findings broadly follow the direction of another recent MRP poll, which also placed Plaid Cymru in first place, Reform UK second and Labour third, although with different seat estimates. Taken together, the polling suggests a growing appetite for change among Welsh voters.

Even so, the picture remains fluid. With no party anywhere near the 49 seats needed for a majority in the new 96-member Senedd, any administration formed after May 7 is likely to depend on coalition talks or some form of agreement between parties.

James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, described the Welsh findings as potentially seismic, warning they would represent a political earthquake if borne out on election day.

For Pembrokeshire voters, the implications are significant. The coming weeks are likely to see fierce debate over farming, rural transport, NHS waiting times, the 20mph policy, energy costs, education and the value-for-money argument surrounding the larger Senedd. Those issues are already shaping campaign messages across west Wales.

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has presented his party as ready to lead the next Welsh Government, while Labour under First Minister Eluned Morgan faces what may be its most difficult Senedd campaign in a generation. Reform UK, meanwhile, is seeking to turn growing discontent with the political establishment into a major breakthrough.

Polls are snapshots rather than forecasts, and much can still change before voters go to the ballot box. But with the campaign entering its closing weeks, this latest survey suggests Wales may be heading towards the most dramatic Senedd election since devolution began.

Police appeal for information following incident on South Road between March 11 and March 15

POLICE are investigating a report of criminal damage to a vehicle in Pembroke.

The damage is believed to have occurred on South Road sometime between Wednesday, March 11 and Sunday, March 15, 2026.

Officers are appealing for anyone who may have seen anything suspicious, or who has information that could assist the investigation, to come forward.

Anyone with information is asked to contact Dyfed-Powys Police online, by email at [email protected], or by calling 101, quoting reference number 26000209990.

Memorial hall opened to help those affected after blaze in Station Road area

A FAMILY escaped without injury after a major house fire in the Station Road area of Letterston, according to local residents.

The blaze prompted a major emergency response on Wednesday (Apr 15), with fire engines seen at the scene and the road closed while crews tackled the incident.

People posting in the Letterston community group said the family was safe, although one kitten was sadly lost in the fire.

One resident wrote: “They lost a kitten, but the family were ok. Nothing worse than a fire. There were 4 fire engines here at one time.”

Others described hearing multiple sirens and seeing smoke rising from the area, with one local woman saying her partner could see the fire engines from nearby fields.

As news of the fire spread, the local community quickly rallied round. The memorial hall was opened for anyone affected, while residents offered practical help and support to the family.

Messages posted online described the loss of the home as heartbreaking, with one resident writing that while the house had gone, the family were “alive and well to make more new memories”.

The Herald has approached the emergency services for official confirmation on the cause of the fire and the full extent of the damage.