Politics

Counting down Brexit by numbers

Published

8 years ago

April 16, 2018

Working class hero: Multi-millionaire Old Etonian Jacob Rees Mogg

FROM March 30, Good Friday, the UK entered the final year of its membership of the European Union.

There have been recriminations on both sides of the EU debate since the UK voted by 52% to 48% to leave the European Union on June 23, 2016.

Leave side voters are divided by their victory over what type of Brexit they want, with a tiny rump of Conservative MPs apparently calling the Parliamentary tune, aided and abetted by a cavalier approach to the truth by government ministers and ever dissipating ‘red lines’. Never can so many on the victorious side have been so angry about winning or so unsure about what to do next.

On the Remain side, recriminations are even more intense. Some are sticking to the ‘it ain’t over ‘til it’s over’ line with increasing desperation, while there are claims of foul deeds committed by the Leave campaign. Some remainers have taken to striking the attitude of Violet Elizabeth Bott – who threatened to ‘thcweam and thcweam and thcweam’ until she was sick unless she got her way.

The refusal to acknowledge that crowding 17.5m voters were prepared to vote leave and meant it is, perhaps, the most revealing and troubling attitude of some dedicated remainers. The people were misled, lied to, duped; there were terrible lies told by the Leave campaign which swayed them; they did not know what they were voting for and had they known they would not have voted to Leave.; there is a need for a second referendum, the unspoken rationale for which is that Remain campaign won’t be as lazy and complacent next time around and voters will see sense.

On March 29, Jane Dodds, the Welsh Liberal Democrat leader said: “With the devastating consequences of Brexit now clearer than ever, it is right the public are asked whether they still want to continue down this path.”

The other side of the coin is the claim by Leave voters that those who voted to remain and are still fighting their corner are – in some way – unpatriotic and doing the UK down. That is an especially popular line from fringe Conservative MPs keen to wrap themselves in the Union Flag abandoned after UKIP’s implosion and plays well in newspapers whose owners reside overseas or in tax exile. Leavers say the argument is settled in a way that they would never have accepted had the vote gone the other way and by the same margin.

On March 29, Jacob Rees Mogg compared Remain campaigners to ‘the Japanese soldier [Hiroo Onada] who finally surrendered in 1974, having previously refused to believe that the Second World War had ended.”

With no end in sight to the sniping – and anyone who thinks that next March will be an end of it is sorely mistaken – it is perhaps worth looking at some numbers both relating to the Referendum result and which might have had an impact upon it.

THE VOTE AND THE POLLS

On June 23, 2016, 72.2% of just over 46.5m eligible voters cast their ballots in the Referendum. That means that almost 33.6m voters took part in the Referendum.

Of those 33.6m voters, 17.4m voted to leave the EU and 16.1m voted to remain.

27.8% voters – a fraction under 13m – did not vote one way or the other.

In percentage terms 52% voted to leave, 48% voted to remain.

In July 2017, ComRes reported:

63% of over-65s, but just 28% of 18-24s, voting Leave. Other age ranges were less divided; almost four in ten 25-44 year olds (37%) voted Leave.
78% of those with a degree voted Remain, while 69% of those whose highest educational attainment was a GSCE grade D-G voted Leave.
Leave voters were least likely to trust either the Government or Parliament – almost two-thirds ‘distrust greatly’ both institutions.
Leave voters are unconvinced of the merits of immigration. While 91% of Remain voters say it ‘enriches’ cultural life, only 9% of Leave voters think the same.

While the majority of the British public still think the government should press on with Brexit, they are far more finely balanced over what sort of Brexit it should be.

A further YouGov poll of just under 5,000 respondents carried out the same month as the ComRes poll showed that 61% of Leave voters think significant damage to the UK’s economy is a price worth paying for Brexit, while the remainder where divided almost equally between those who said it was not and those who ‘did not know’.

However, that poll revealed a significant shift when the same Leave voters were asked whether they thought either losing their own job or a family member losing theirs was a price worth paying. 39% of Leave voters were prepared to throw both themselves and family members under the bus, with 61% either saying no or don’t know to the same question.

That suggests that leave voters are prepared to react with equanimity to the thought of an abstract ‘someone else’ bearing any adverse consequences of Brexit, but less enthusiastic when it comes to bearing adverse consequences themselves.

WHAT BREXIT?

Those results underline the UK Government’s quandary over meeting voters’ expectations on Brexit and further highlight a significant factor that was, perhaps, lost in the Referendum campaign and upheaval afterwards; namely, voting leave did not decide the terms of the UK’s departure from the EU.
Voters were not electing Vote Leave – fronted by Boris Johnson and Michael Gove; instead, voters were presented with a binary choice without any gloss.
The question on the ballot paper was:

‘Should the UK remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’

The question was solely about giving up (or not) membership of the European Union: there was no mention of free movement, the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, or an end to European-style regulation. There was no option to vote leave but remain a member of the European Economic Area. There was no option to vote remain but renegotiate the bits of EU membership you didn’t like. There was not even a requirement that Parliament to treat the result as final and binding.

The public advised Parliament that it wanted to leave the European Union and it is up to Parliament – having decided to follow the Referendum result with action to depart the EU – to determine the terms of departure.

Former industrial areas were much more likely to vote leave than to vote remain. And a clue to why that is the case can be found in the UK Government’s own statistics.

WINNERS AND LOSERS

We looked at a UK Government Briefing Paper on the employment of EU Nationals in the UK.

Across all regions, EU workers are more likely to be working in lower-skilled roles than the workforce as a whole. The proportion of EU nationals employed in elementary occupations was lowest for those living in London and highest in the East Midlands.

EU workers were also less likely to be working in high-skilled managerial and professional occupations than the workforce as a whole.

Although a higher share of EU nationals than UK nationals work in low-skilled occupations, EU nationals are more likely to be “over-educated” for the job they are doing, meaning they hold a higher qualification than was typical for people working in that occupation.

But the Briefing Paper’s findings were, perhaps, most illuminating when it came to employment levels within certain sectors in the decade leading up the Referendum.

Overall, the number of people in employment in the UK increased by around 2.5 million between 2006 and 2016, but while employment grew in some sectors it decreased in others. Even when there were periods of economic growth, more EU nationals found employment than their UK counterparts.

Well over 700,000 UK nationals stopped working in manufacturing industry between 2006 and 2016. But the number of EU nationals employed in manufacturing soared by just under 200,000. In construction, almost 400,000 UK nationals stopped working in that sector in the decade before the Referendum, but around 100,000 EU nationals found work in construction. Around 300,000 UK nationals ceased working in the automotive industry – wholesale, retail, repair of vehicles – while just over 200,000 EU nationals found work within it. And while 100,000 UK nationals ceased working in transport and storage, 100,000 EU nationals found work in that sector.

Those figures – combined with the polling evidence – suggest that voters in former industrial areas did not only perceive a threat to their economic security from membership of the EU and EU immigration to the UK, but ACTUALLY experienced adverse economic consequences as the result of inward migration of EU nationals into their regions and the subsequent displacement to EU immigrants of traditional sources of employment opportunities.

Tellingly, in the service sectors centred upon the major urban areas which voted remain there were greater employment opportunities and fewer EU migrants took up posts in those sectors.

In light of those figures, it can hardly be a surprise that areas which voted Leave by the greatest margin – notably the North West and North East of England – are precisely those areas in which the greatest number of manufacturing jobs were lost.

That economic data also suggests that the idea that re-running the Referendum to get ‘the right result’ would only serve to underline the stark economic and social divisions between two entrenched classes of voter.

A QUESTION OF CLASS

The British Election Study, which provides independent analysis of voting patterns and voters’ decision-making, found that one of the defining features of Leave voters outside of cosmopolitan areas was a nostalgic view of Britain’s past and a desire to turn back the clock.

A sense of national decline was a defining feature of the divide between Leave and Remain voters. The Study asked its respondents (who were screened to represent the proportions of the actual result) how much they agreed or disagreed with the statement ‘things in Britain were better in the past’. Fewer than 15% of those who strongly disagreed that things in Britain were better in the past voted to leave the EU while nearly 80% of those who strongly agreed did so.

The Study established that those who viewed themselves with less control over their lives and destinies were more overwhelmingly more likely to vote leave on the basis that leaving the EU would permit them to establish greater control over their individual destinies.

Combined with the economic data, the Survey’s results support the proposition that social class was the battleground of Brexit and that attempts to overturn the Referendum result will only increase the sense that ‘the classes’ live in an entirely different world – with different expectations, a different world view, and with greater social capital – than ‘the masses’ – who feel forgotten, diminished, and left behind by shining metropolitan visions of what it means to be a UK citizen in the 21st century.

News

Game of Thrones star urges voters to back anti-DARC parties

Published

8 hours ago

May 5, 2026

Tom Sinclair

ACTOR Jerome Flynn has urged voters in Wales to back parties opposed to the proposed DARC radar scheme at Cawdor Barracks, saying the issue could be decided by the next Welsh Government.

The Pembrokeshire-based Game of Thrones star, also known for Soldier Soldier and Robson & Jerome, made the appeal in a video released by PARC Against DARC on Tuesday (May 5), just two days before polling day in the Senedd election.

Radar row enters election campaign

Flynn urged voters in Ceredigion Penfro and across Wales to support Plaid Cymru or the Green Party, saying both parties had pledged to oppose the project.

The Ministry of Defence has submitted a planning application to Pembrokeshire County Council for 27 radar antennas and associated infrastructure at Cawdor Barracks, near Brawdy.

The scheme forms part of the Deep Space Advanced Radar Capability programme, linked to the AUKUS defence partnership between the UK, US and Australia.

The MOD says DARC would help detect, identify and track objects in Earth orbit, supporting military and civilian satellite security.

Opponents claim the radar would industrialise part of the Pembrokeshire countryside, damage the setting of the national park, and increase the area’s military significance.

Flynn says project ‘not a done deal’

In the video, Flynn described the election as “probably the most crucial vote we’ve made in 25 years”.

He claimed the next Senedd could play a decisive role in the future of the project, saying: “I’m here to say, it’s not a done deal because Plaid Cymru and the Greens have both made party-led decisions to say no to Westminster.

“We’re not having such a thing on our beloved coast.”

Flynn also described St Davids as “the spiritual home of Wales” and criticised what he called “the most unspeakably abominable planning application” on the edge of the Pembrokeshire Coast National Park.

Campaign steps up pressure

PARC Against DARC said it welcomed Flynn’s intervention and said it had distributed 22,000 leaflets around Pembrokeshire in recent weeks.

The campaign group said First Minister Eluned Morgan’s recent comments on the scheme did not go far enough.

A spokesperson said: “While Eluned Morgan has come out in the final hour to call for DARC to be halted, we fear this does not go nearly far enough.

“Plaid Cymru and the Green Party have both made it their national party policy to oppose and stop DARC, so we have no doubt of the authenticity of their commitment.”

The group is also urging residents to submit objections to Pembrokeshire County Council before the current publicity period ends on May 20.

Welsh Government role

Campaigners say the next Welsh Government could intervene by “calling in” the planning application, meaning Welsh ministers would take responsibility for deciding it rather than leaving the final decision with Pembrokeshire County Council.

That possibility has made DARC a significant local election issue in Ceredigion Penfro, where Eluned Morgan is Labour’s lead candidate, Elin Jones leads the Plaid Cymru list, and Amy Nicholass heads the Green Party list.

Under the new Senedd voting system, voters will elect six Members of the Senedd for the constituency using a proportional list system.

PARC Against DARC said this meant there was “far less need for tactical voting” and argued that voters opposed to the radar could support either Plaid Cymru or the Greens.

Wider concerns

Campaigners have repeatedly claimed that the radar would make Pembrokeshire a potential military target and draw Wales further into US military strategy.

They also say the project raises environmental, health, democratic and security concerns.

Supporters of the scheme argue that space monitoring is becoming increasingly important as satellites are used for communications, navigation, defence and emergency infrastructure.

Flynn ended his video by saying: “Vote with your heart because we can make a difference here, we could put in a government that cares about our land, our people and our environment.”

Whatever the outcome of Thursday’s election, the intervention by one of Pembrokeshire’s best-known residents is likely to keep the DARC controversy high on the political agenda.

News

Landlords in Wales face new anti-discrimination laws

Published

8 hours ago

May 5, 2026

Tom Sinclair

New rules from June 1 will make it unlawful to refuse renters because they have children or receive benefits

LANDLORDS in Wales are being warned to prepare for new anti-discrimination laws which come into force at the beginning of June.

From Monday, June 1, it will be unlawful for landlords and letting agents to discriminate against prospective contract-holders because they have children or receive benefits.

The change follows the Renters’ Rights Act 2025, which mainly reforms renting law in England, but also extends key anti-discrimination protections into Wales.

The Welsh provisions will be incorporated into the Renting Homes framework and will apply to occupation contracts. Unlike the civil penalty regime used in England, breaches in Wales may amount to a criminal offence, with enforcement handled by local authorities and cases dealt with through the courts.

What landlords cannot do

From June 1, landlords and agents must not deter people from applying for a property because they have children or receive benefits.

They must also not refuse or restrict access to viewings, prevent prospective tenants from receiving information about a property, or exclude them from entering into an occupation contract on those grounds.

The measures are aimed at ending blanket “no children” or “no benefits” policies, which campaigners have long argued unfairly shut families and low-income households out of the private rented sector.

Landlords will still be allowed to carry out affordability checks and assess whether a property is suitable. For example, a landlord may still decide that a particular room or property is physically unsuitable for children, but the decision must be based on the property itself rather than a blanket ban.

Paperwork deadline

Under the new rules, landlords will need to issue either a new occupation contract or a statement of variation to reflect the changes.

The statement can be served up to fourteen days after the rules take effect, meaning landlords should act by June 14.

Leading North Wales estate and lettings agent Cavendish, which has offices in Mold and Ruthin, says it has been advising landlords ahead of the deadline.

Nicola Blake, Operations Director at Cavendish, said: “While much of the focus in recent months has been on the introduction of the Renters’ Rights Act in England, some of the changes are also impacting Wales.

“As of June 1, landlords in Wales will be subject to stringent anti-discrimination laws and failure to adhere to the new legislation could result in a criminal prosecution.”

She added: “This is a significant change for landlords in Wales, and we are helping our clients to be ready well ahead of the deadline, completing the required paperwork and ensuring they are fully compliant.”

Landlord seminar

Cavendish will hold a seminar later this year for landlords in Wales, covering legislative changes and advice on managing and improving property portfolios.

The event will take place on Monday, October 26, at Theatr Clwyd. Cavendish recently became a Gold Member of the Mold arts venue.

Cavendish was established in 1993 by Julian Adams, the firm’s chairman, and his then business partner Robert Ikin.

The company now employs more than thirty people across estate agency and lettings, with offices in Mold, Ruthin and Chester. It says it helps more than 600 homeowners move each year and manages around 650 properties.

News

Academics warn voters need clear reporting ahead of historic Senedd election

Published

12 hours ago

May 5, 2026

Tom Sinclair

Cardiff University experts say misinformation, coalition arithmetic, public finances and devolved powers are among the key issues facing Wales

CARDIFF UNIVERSITY academics have warned that clear reporting and proper scrutiny will be vital as Wales prepares for one of the most significant Senedd elections since devolution.

The intervention comes ahead of polling day on Thursday (May 7), when voters will elect a larger 96-member Senedd under a new voting system.

Professor Stephen Cushion, from Cardiff University’s School of Journalism, Media and Culture, said UK-wide or English-produced news remained the main source of political information for many people in Wales.

He warned that reporting on devolved issues such as health, education and law and order did not always explain clearly which government was responsible.

Professor Cushion said this could leave people confused about what applies to Wales, particularly when audiences increasingly see political headlines on social media without reading the full context.

Dr Maxwell Modell, a research associate at the same school, said some political news items presented parties arguing with each other without enough independent assessment of their claims.

He said broadcasters sometimes set out several party positions side by side, leaving viewers to make sense of them without journalistic scrutiny.

Dr Keighley Perkins said turnout could be higher than at any point since devolution began, given the possibility of political change.

She said coverage should focus less on perceived disengagement and more on the issues facing the next Welsh Government and scrutiny of party policy positions.

Misinformation warning

Dr Bethan Davies, based in Cardiff University’s Security, Crime and Intelligence Innovation Institute, warned that there was significant scope for misinformation and disinformation to spread during the campaign, particularly with the rise of AI-generated content.

She said inauthentic accounts sometimes used the logos of reliable news outlets on videos to make audiences believe they were genuine.

Professor Martin Innes, co-director of the same institute, said foreign interests seeking to influence or interfere in politics remained a persistent problem.

He said there should be clear ministerial and senior official accountability for combating foreign online political interference, with resources matching the scale of the challenge.

Economy and public finances

Professor Melanie Jones, of Cardiff Business School, said the future performance of the Welsh economy should be a key focus for the next Welsh Government.

She said improving living standards depended on addressing Wales’ productivity gap with the rest of the UK, which would require long-term commitment and investment in people and infrastructure.

Professor Robert Huggins, of the School of Geography and Planning, said Cardiff was developing as a hub for creative and high-tech industries, but regeneration was less obvious in the South Wales Valleys.

He said the next Welsh Government would have “much work to do” to improve prospects for people living in those areas.

Guto Ifan, from the Wales Fiscal Analysis programme, said difficult choices over spending and taxation were likely after the election.

He warned that if the UK Government sticks to its current spending plans, growing NHS spending alongside manifesto commitments on childcare, education, transport, social care and taxation would require significant cuts to some public services or tax rises.

He said manifestos were largely silent on how those trade-offs would be managed.

Welsh identity and coalition arithmetic

Professor Richard Wyn Jones, of the Wales Governance Centre, said Wales was becoming “less British”, with younger voters increasingly identifying as Welsh only or moving away from national identity altogether.

He said those who felt Welsh but not British tended to be more left wing and socially liberal than those who felt both Welsh and British, which he said was good news for Plaid Cymru.

Professor Laura McAllister said the expanded Senedd would need sharper scrutiny and the ability to challenge government if the increase in members was to be justified.

She said Wales also needed to avoid a “race to the bottom” in political behaviour if public trust was to be rebuilt.

Dr Jac Larner said the general polling trend showed the race to be the largest party remained between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, with other parties competing for third place or below.

However, he said finishing first could matter less than it appeared.

He said whichever party led on seats would face coalition arithmetic, adding that Plaid Cymru had more credible potential partners in Labour and the Greens, while Reform had fewer options.

The Herald has carried detailed election coverage in recent weeks, including candidate interviews, graphics, explainers on the new voting system, and analysis of the Ceredigion Penfro contest.

Cardiff University said the experts were available for further comment throughout the campaign.