Politics

Counting down Brexit by numbers

Published

6 years ago

April 16, 2018

Working class hero: Multi-millionaire Old Etonian Jacob Rees Mogg

FROM March 30, Good Friday, the UK entered the final year of its membership of the European Union.

There have been recriminations on both sides of the EU debate since the UK voted by 52% to 48% to leave the European Union on June 23, 2016.

Leave side voters are divided by their victory over what type of Brexit they want, with a tiny rump of Conservative MPs apparently calling the Parliamentary tune, aided and abetted by a cavalier approach to the truth by government ministers and ever dissipating ‘red lines’. Never can so many on the victorious side have been so angry about winning or so unsure about what to do next.

On the Remain side, recriminations are even more intense. Some are sticking to the ‘it ain’t over ‘til it’s over’ line with increasing desperation, while there are claims of foul deeds committed by the Leave campaign. Some remainers have taken to striking the attitude of Violet Elizabeth Bott – who threatened to ‘thcweam and thcweam and thcweam’ until she was sick unless she got her way.

The refusal to acknowledge that crowding 17.5m voters were prepared to vote leave and meant it is, perhaps, the most revealing and troubling attitude of some dedicated remainers. The people were misled, lied to, duped; there were terrible lies told by the Leave campaign which swayed them; they did not know what they were voting for and had they known they would not have voted to Leave.; there is a need for a second referendum, the unspoken rationale for which is that Remain campaign won’t be as lazy and complacent next time around and voters will see sense.

On March 29, Jane Dodds, the Welsh Liberal Democrat leader said: “With the devastating consequences of Brexit now clearer than ever, it is right the public are asked whether they still want to continue down this path.”

The other side of the coin is the claim by Leave voters that those who voted to remain and are still fighting their corner are – in some way – unpatriotic and doing the UK down. That is an especially popular line from fringe Conservative MPs keen to wrap themselves in the Union Flag abandoned after UKIP’s implosion and plays well in newspapers whose owners reside overseas or in tax exile. Leavers say the argument is settled in a way that they would never have accepted had the vote gone the other way and by the same margin.

On March 29, Jacob Rees Mogg compared Remain campaigners to ‘the Japanese soldier [Hiroo Onada] who finally surrendered in 1974, having previously refused to believe that the Second World War had ended.”

With no end in sight to the sniping – and anyone who thinks that next March will be an end of it is sorely mistaken – it is perhaps worth looking at some numbers both relating to the Referendum result and which might have had an impact upon it.

THE VOTE AND THE POLLS

On June 23, 2016, 72.2% of just over 46.5m eligible voters cast their ballots in the Referendum. That means that almost 33.6m voters took part in the Referendum.

Of those 33.6m voters, 17.4m voted to leave the EU and 16.1m voted to remain.

27.8% voters – a fraction under 13m – did not vote one way or the other.

In percentage terms 52% voted to leave, 48% voted to remain.

In July 2017, ComRes reported:

63% of over-65s, but just 28% of 18-24s, voting Leave. Other age ranges were less divided; almost four in ten 25-44 year olds (37%) voted Leave.
78% of those with a degree voted Remain, while 69% of those whose highest educational attainment was a GSCE grade D-G voted Leave.
Leave voters were least likely to trust either the Government or Parliament – almost two-thirds ‘distrust greatly’ both institutions.
Leave voters are unconvinced of the merits of immigration. While 91% of Remain voters say it ‘enriches’ cultural life, only 9% of Leave voters think the same.

While the majority of the British public still think the government should press on with Brexit, they are far more finely balanced over what sort of Brexit it should be.

A further YouGov poll of just under 5,000 respondents carried out the same month as the ComRes poll showed that 61% of Leave voters think significant damage to the UK’s economy is a price worth paying for Brexit, while the remainder where divided almost equally between those who said it was not and those who ‘did not know’.

However, that poll revealed a significant shift when the same Leave voters were asked whether they thought either losing their own job or a family member losing theirs was a price worth paying. 39% of Leave voters were prepared to throw both themselves and family members under the bus, with 61% either saying no or don’t know to the same question.

That suggests that leave voters are prepared to react with equanimity to the thought of an abstract ‘someone else’ bearing any adverse consequences of Brexit, but less enthusiastic when it comes to bearing adverse consequences themselves.

WHAT BREXIT?

Those results underline the UK Government’s quandary over meeting voters’ expectations on Brexit and further highlight a significant factor that was, perhaps, lost in the Referendum campaign and upheaval afterwards; namely, voting leave did not decide the terms of the UK’s departure from the EU.
Voters were not electing Vote Leave – fronted by Boris Johnson and Michael Gove; instead, voters were presented with a binary choice without any gloss.
The question on the ballot paper was:

‘Should the UK remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’

The question was solely about giving up (or not) membership of the European Union: there was no mention of free movement, the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, or an end to European-style regulation. There was no option to vote leave but remain a member of the European Economic Area. There was no option to vote remain but renegotiate the bits of EU membership you didn’t like. There was not even a requirement that Parliament to treat the result as final and binding.

The public advised Parliament that it wanted to leave the European Union and it is up to Parliament – having decided to follow the Referendum result with action to depart the EU – to determine the terms of departure.

Former industrial areas were much more likely to vote leave than to vote remain. And a clue to why that is the case can be found in the UK Government’s own statistics.

WINNERS AND LOSERS

We looked at a UK Government Briefing Paper on the employment of EU Nationals in the UK.

Across all regions, EU workers are more likely to be working in lower-skilled roles than the workforce as a whole. The proportion of EU nationals employed in elementary occupations was lowest for those living in London and highest in the East Midlands.

EU workers were also less likely to be working in high-skilled managerial and professional occupations than the workforce as a whole.

Although a higher share of EU nationals than UK nationals work in low-skilled occupations, EU nationals are more likely to be “over-educated” for the job they are doing, meaning they hold a higher qualification than was typical for people working in that occupation.

But the Briefing Paper’s findings were, perhaps, most illuminating when it came to employment levels within certain sectors in the decade leading up the Referendum.

Overall, the number of people in employment in the UK increased by around 2.5 million between 2006 and 2016, but while employment grew in some sectors it decreased in others. Even when there were periods of economic growth, more EU nationals found employment than their UK counterparts.

Well over 700,000 UK nationals stopped working in manufacturing industry between 2006 and 2016. But the number of EU nationals employed in manufacturing soared by just under 200,000. In construction, almost 400,000 UK nationals stopped working in that sector in the decade before the Referendum, but around 100,000 EU nationals found work in construction. Around 300,000 UK nationals ceased working in the automotive industry – wholesale, retail, repair of vehicles – while just over 200,000 EU nationals found work within it. And while 100,000 UK nationals ceased working in transport and storage, 100,000 EU nationals found work in that sector.

Those figures – combined with the polling evidence – suggest that voters in former industrial areas did not only perceive a threat to their economic security from membership of the EU and EU immigration to the UK, but ACTUALLY experienced adverse economic consequences as the result of inward migration of EU nationals into their regions and the subsequent displacement to EU immigrants of traditional sources of employment opportunities.

Tellingly, in the service sectors centred upon the major urban areas which voted remain there were greater employment opportunities and fewer EU migrants took up posts in those sectors.

In light of those figures, it can hardly be a surprise that areas which voted Leave by the greatest margin – notably the North West and North East of England – are precisely those areas in which the greatest number of manufacturing jobs were lost.

That economic data also suggests that the idea that re-running the Referendum to get ‘the right result’ would only serve to underline the stark economic and social divisions between two entrenched classes of voter.

A QUESTION OF CLASS

The British Election Study, which provides independent analysis of voting patterns and voters’ decision-making, found that one of the defining features of Leave voters outside of cosmopolitan areas was a nostalgic view of Britain’s past and a desire to turn back the clock.

A sense of national decline was a defining feature of the divide between Leave and Remain voters. The Study asked its respondents (who were screened to represent the proportions of the actual result) how much they agreed or disagreed with the statement ‘things in Britain were better in the past’. Fewer than 15% of those who strongly disagreed that things in Britain were better in the past voted to leave the EU while nearly 80% of those who strongly agreed did so.

The Study established that those who viewed themselves with less control over their lives and destinies were more overwhelmingly more likely to vote leave on the basis that leaving the EU would permit them to establish greater control over their individual destinies.

Combined with the economic data, the Survey’s results support the proposition that social class was the battleground of Brexit and that attempts to overturn the Referendum result will only increase the sense that ‘the classes’ live in an entirely different world – with different expectations, a different world view, and with greater social capital – than ‘the masses’ – who feel forgotten, diminished, and left behind by shining metropolitan visions of what it means to be a UK citizen in the 21st century.

Community

Dafydd Llewelyn re-elected as Police and Crime Commissioner

Published

3 hours ago

May 6, 2024

Bruce Sinclair - Local Democracy Reporter

PLAID Cymru’s Dafydd Llewelyn has been re-elected as Police and Crime Commissioner for Dyfed-Powys, telling an audience in Llandysul it was “an honour and a privilege” to again hold the post.

Mr Llewelyn has held the post since 2016.

The elections took place on May 2nd, with the Ceredigion count and declaration of the commissioner taking place at Llandysul’s Ysgol Bro Teifi May 3rd.

The election saw four candidates vying for the post:

Philippa Thompson (Labour and Co-operative Party)
Ian Harrison (Welsh Conservatives)
Justin Griffiths (Welsh Liberal Democrats)
Dafydd Llywelyn (Plaid Cymru), the current commissioner

The role of the Police and Crime Commissioner (PCC) is to be the voice of the people and hold the police to account, and are responsible for the totality of policing.

PCCs aim to cut crime and deliver an effective and efficient police service within their police force area.

The Dyfed-Powys force area covers the counties of Ceredigion, Pembrokeshire, Carmarthenshire and Powys.

Overall votes for Dyfed-Powys were:

Dafydd Llewelyn, 31,323
Ian Harrison, 19,134
Philippa Thompson, 18,353
Justin Griffiths, 7,719

At the Ceredigion count Mr Llewelyn thanked the returning officer and staff for “working tirelessly,” adding: “Being the Police and Crime Commissioner in an area I’ve grown up in and worked all my life is quite an honour and a privilege, and I’m looking forward to serving a further four year term in office for Dyfed-Powys.”

Ceredigion results were: 7,146; 1,971; 1,716; and 1,307 respectively, with a 21.7 per cent turnout.

Pembrokeshire results saw Labour’s Philippa Thompson gain the majority, of 5,386, with Mr Harrison second on 5,168, Mr Llewelyn third on 4,643, and Mr Griffiths fourth on 1,209.

Carmarthenshire saw Mr Llewelyn lead, with 14,739 votes, followed by Labour on 7,395, conservative 5,430, and Liberal Democrats 2,037.

Powys saw a very different picture, with Mr Harrison leading.

Conservative: 6,565
Plaid Cymru: 4,795
Labour: 3,856
Liberal Democrats: 3,172

All four candidates have been contacted for their reaction following the re-election of Mr Llewelyn.

All four hopefuls had previously issued statements outlining why they should hold the position.

Philippa Thompson (Labour), in her statement, said: “There’s a huge crisis in funding for policing and public services. The Conservative Westminster Government has so much to answer for having destroyed our country’s economy. Labour believes security is the bedrock on which opportunities are built, communities thrive, and local economies prosper.

“Instead of standing up for security, the Tories have done the opposite. This wasn’t an accident – it was the result of deliberate choices. A choice to cut police from our streets, a choice to undermine respect for the rule of law. Our communities cannot afford more of the same. Things have got to change.

“Labour will be tough on crime and tough on the causes of crime.”

A statement on behalf of Ian Harrison (Conservative) said: “If elected as Police and Crime Commissioner for Dyfed Powys Ian’s immediate priorities will be focused upon Force performance within the context of the Annual HMIC reports and he would plan to come to an early agreement with the Chief Constable to address this issue.

“Residents tell Ian that they want to see more police officers, and that they want action on anti-social behaviour, tackling County Lines gangs, domestic violence and rural crime.

“Dyfed Powys is an enormous rural area to police, and Ian intends to spend his time visiting and listening to many stakeholders and interest groups as he develops specific plans and initiatives to reduce crime, make residents safer and reinforce interfaces with victim support groups.”

Justin Griffiths (Welsh Liberal Democrat), in his statement, said: “If elected I would seek to implement a more transparent, accountable and community-based policing service.

“I would seek to restore proper community policing ensuring officers are visible in our communities and not diverted to other areas, whilst tackling inequalities in criminal justice and seek to implement the recommendations of the Thomas Commission in devolving of powers to the relevant devolved administration.

“I would implement a fairer and more compassionate policing service e.g. the focus on drug offenders being put on rehabilitation programs, this is an example of our holistic approach to reducing repeat offending and a reduction in court backlogs and overpopulated prisons.”

Dafydd Llywelyn (Plaid Cymru) said: “As your current Commissioner, operational, front-line policing has, and always will come before party politics. I have a strong track record of delivering on my promises and of listening to the communities of Dyfed Powys.

“I am proud of what I have achieved since 2016, but there is still so much to do.

“I am an approachable individual and I believe in listening to all members of the community in order to shape a successful police force.”

He says, since 2016, force area resources have been improved, and says he will “continue to put the victim at the heart of the service and develop a truly victim-led service”.

Politics

Claimed £2m council rent arrears to come under spotlight

Published

3 hours ago

May 6, 2024

Bruce Sinclair - Local Democracy Reporter

CONCERNS that Pembrokeshire County Council has “serious rental arrears of more than £2m” are to come under the spotlight in a series of questions to senior councillors at County Hall next week.

Merlin’s Bridge councillor John Cole, in a submitted question to be heard at the May 9 meeting of Pembrokeshire County Council, will ask: “In the budget seminars. It was reported that the council has serious rental arrears that are over £2 million.”

In a three-pronged question to Cabinet Member for Housing Operations & Regulatory Services Cllr Michelle Bateman, he will ask:

“What amount of arrears are attributed to housing benefit not being passed on to the council by tenants?

“What is the highest, lowest and average amount of arrears owed and number of tenants in arrears?

“Would it not be prudent to have a clause in Tenancy agreements that tenants agree that housing benefit rents are made directly to the Council, thereby negating the arrears occurring in the first instance.”

A similar point is to be raised by Conservative group leader Cllr Di Clements with another Cabinet member.

The county councillor for Marletwy will ask two related questions “Can the Cabinet member for Finance [Cllr Alec Cormack] provide me with the current number of properties in council tax arrears and the total figure of such arrears?

“What were the above figures a year ago, and what are the estimated figures a year from now?”

The questions are expected to be answered by the appropriate Cabinet members at the May 9 meeting.

Politics

Senedd repeats calls for ceasefire in Gaza

Published

3 hours ago

May 6, 2024

Chris Haines, ICNN Senedd reporter

THE SENEDD reiterated calls for an end to the horrors of the Israel-Hamas war.

Peredur Owen Griffiths led a debate on the conflict almost six months on from the Senedd voting in favour of Plaid Cymru’s calls for an immediate ceasefire.

Responding to criticism that the Senedd should concentrate on matters in Wales, and within its powers, he stressed that Welsh citizens have been directly affected by events in Gaza.

The South Wales East MS raised the example of Gillian and Pete Brisley, from Bridgend, who tragically lost their daughter and granddaughters in the Hamas attack on October 7.

He said: “I have attended prayers next to a man in Dar-ul-Isra mosque who has lost over 20 members of his immediate family in Israel’s war on Gaza.”

Mr Owen Griffiths told the chamber the latest death toll stands at 1,139 Israelis and 34,979 Palestinians killed, according to Al Jazeera.

He said: “In reality, the death toll is likely to be much higher, as more and more bodies are pulled out of the rubble…. This is devastation and sorrow on an unimaginable scale.”

The MS said the response from people in Wales has been clear: “Not in our name,” but he warned that that passion and determination has not been matched by Welsh ministers.

Mr Owen Griffiths suggested the Welsh Government has changed its tune, now calling for an immediate ceasefire, despite all ministers abstaining in November’s vote.

He called for “long-overdue” sanctions on Israel and an end to arms shipments, urging firms and pension schemes to stop fuelling or sustaining the conflict.

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth called for an end to the atrocities, a ceasefire, sanctions, and a massive increase in humanitarian aid.

He said: “We cannot allow the world to forget the horrors of this war. We can’t forget those killed and taken hostage on October 7, and we demand their release.

“And we must never forget the tens of thousands killed and still being killed in Gaza, the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians facing destitution, malnutrition and homelessness.”

John Griffiths said his constituents want an immediate and permanent ceasefire, the release of hostages, humanitarian aid, and the beginnings of a long-term political solution.

The Newport East MS said humanity must prevail over the terrible carnage.

Echoing the UN secretary-general António Guterres, who urged people not to be bystanders, Mr Griffiths was heartened that Welsh people have protested and made their voices heard.

Plaid Cymru’s Sioned Williams warned that 73% of the 34,000 people killed in Gaza are women and children, according to the UN.

She urged the Welsh Government to take a stand by calling out the “appalling, unjust and illegal” treatment of women and children in Gaza.

While international affairs is non-devolved, the South Wales West MS pointed out that Welsh ministers made statements on the appalling invasion of Ukraine.

Jenny Rathbone told the chamber Israel has killed more journalists in Gaza in 200 days than all the journalists killed in the second world war.

The Labour backbencher, who represents Cardiff Central, said the occupying army has a duty to care for civilians but this has not been met in Gaza nor the West Bank.

She urged the US to insist on an immediate ceasefire by withholding all military aid to Israel.

Mabon ap Gwynfor, who represents Dwyfor Meironionnydd, urged the Welsh Government to ensure no arms or components from Wales are sold to Israel.

The Plaid Cymru MS said: “Those who defend the actions of the state of Israel say that that state is protecting itself – but killing 35,000 people is not an act of defence.

“It’s not an act of defence to kill a third of them being children.

“It’s not an act of defence to bomb patients in hospital and it’s certainly not an act of defence to prevent humanitarian aid from reaching a population that is about to starve to death.”

Plaid Cymru deputy leader Delyth Jewell, who previously worked for Action Aid, raised grave concerns about the safety of former aid worker colleagues trapped in terrible conditions in Gaza.

Lesley Griffiths said foreign policy is not devolved but Welsh ministers are cognisant of the real and lasting consequences of the horrifying conflict on communities in Wales.

Ms Griffiths, who was appointed culture and social justice secretary in March, said the Welsh Government’s position remains that it wants to see a ceasefire as soon as possible.

She told the debate on May 1 that spikes in Islamophobia and anti-Semitism in Wales have not been as bad as first feared, but there have been some isolated hateful incidents.

Ms Griffiths warned that Wales has not donated to alleviate suffering in Gaza because the Disasters Emergency Committee has been unable to launch an appeal.

She said Welsh Government calls to explore a Gaza resettlement scheme to help those most in need have been met with short shrift by UK ministers.