News

Stephen Crabb: ‘I will vote to deliver Brexit tonight’

Published

7 years ago

January 15, 2019

STEPHEN CRABB MP, member of parliament for Preseli Pembrokeshire, has written an open letter to his constituents explaining his position over Brexit and explaining his intentions in supporting Theresa May in the Brexit vote tonight (Jan 15).

On his Facebook page, the MP posted: “I have received thousands of emails and letters from constituents in recent weeks outlining their views on Brexit. I am taking the time to read through every piece of correspondence because I believe it is important to hear all views from the constituency at this serious moment.

“It will not be possible to reply to all emails ahead of the vote tomorrow but I will respond as soon as I can.

“Attached is an open letter to all my constituents about the Brexit vote tonight.

“It is highly likely that the deal will be defeated later, but I believe that this deal or something very much like it will eventually have to be passed in order for us to move forward. Please take the time to read over the letter to hear my views on the process so far and what is yet to come.”

The full letter below:

Dear Constituents,

Firstly, many thanks to everyone who has contacted me about Brexit over the last few weeks and months.

I have received more than two thousand emails and letters from constituents. No other issue, including the proposed downgrading of Withybush Hospital, has generated anything like as much correspondence – and opinion has been split right down the middle. Many constituents are now arguing for a second referendum and for Brexit to be stopped, whilst on the other side many are arguing for the Brexit vote to be respected and implemented.

Tonight the House of Commons will vote on the draft EU Withdrawal Agreement. It will be the most significant vote for over forty years.

In 2016 the country voted 52% to leave the EU and 48% to remain. In Preseli Pembrokeshire, that majority was even clearer with 55% of voters wanting to leave. On the night of the referendum result I promised to give my all to ensuring that the outcome of that vote is delivered.

It would be an enormous breach of trust with voters for the referendum result to be ignored or overturned. So at every stage of the process since June 2016 I have voted consistently to implement Brexit and to allow the UK Government flexibility in the way it conducts the negotiations. I have voted against every attempt to block or water-down the referendum result, or to try and shackle the hands of the Prime Minister.

As we approach the end of the negotiation process, there is now a deal on the table. It is important to be clear about what this deal is and what it is not. This deal does not set out in detail our new long-term relationship with the EU once we leave; this is purely about the terms on which we exit at the end of March this year.

Under this Agreement, the UK ceases to be a member of the EU at the end of March but it provides for a transition period which will give clarity on trade rules for businesses while the details of the new long-term relationship are negotiated and agreed.

I will vote for the deal because I believe it is the surest and most responsible way of delivering Brexit. A lot of the criticism I have heard about the deal is ill-informed and, in some cases, blatantly untrue.

This deal ensures:

Free movement of people will end
We are free to sign trade deals with other countries
A free trade area for goods with the EU
No more vast contributions to the EU budget
Flexibility on services and digital
We leave the Common Agricultural Policy and the Common Fisheries Policy
The European Court of Justice won’t have jurisdiction over the UK
Continued security cooperation
Direct effect of EU law in the UK will end
No hard border in Northern Ireland, or a border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK

On the issue of the so-called ‘Irish backstop’, I think that taking a careful approach to the sensitivities around the Irish border and protecting the gains of the peace process is the responsible thing to do. Polls show that a majority of people in Northern Ireland actually support the Irish backstop regardless of what the DUP may say.

If this Brexit deal is blocked tonight, it is very unclear what will happen next. Different groups of MPs have their own ideas on the way forward. There is a growing number of MPs calling for a second referendum to stop Brexit; there is a group of MPs arguing for a Norway style deal which would be an even softer Brexit; some are arguing for the Brexit day to be postponed to allow more time to negotiate the current deal. All of these scenarios make Brexit less likely.

Even though it is not my preferred outcome, I have consistently voted to allow the Government to spend money preparing for a No Deal outcome as I believe we should be prepared for all eventualities. However, as we saw in the votes last week, there is a majority of MPs in Parliament who will do everything in their power to try to prevent No Deal.

How we leave the EU really does matter to the lives of people who work in key sectors in Pembrokeshire, such as the ports, oil refining and agriculture. I have taken the time to discuss the different Brexit scenarios with all of the leading employers in Pembrokeshire and I honestly believe that the deal on the table is the best way forward given the very serious and specific concerns that have been raised with me by the people who create jobs for my constituents.

The deal is not perfect but no one seems to have a serious Plan B that can command a majority in the Commons. Britain needs a way forward from the current divisions and arguments that are poisoning our national politics.

Nobody knows what will happen next but I genuinely believe that the Brexit deal on the table is the only way to deliver on the referendum result with any kind of certainty.

Tonight I will vote to deliver Brexit.

Rt Hon Stephen Crabb MP

News

Parties make final push as Wales prepares to vote in historic Senedd election

Published

9 hours ago

May 6, 2026

Tom Sinclair

Campaign leaders criss-cross country in last-minute battle for crucial votes

WALES heads to the polls tomorrow (Thursday, May 7) after a frenetic final day of campaigning that saw party leaders, candidates and activists make one last push to win over undecided voters in what is being described as the most unpredictable Senedd election in modern Welsh history.

With polling stations due to open at 7:00am, parties spent Wednesday targeting key battleground constituencies across the country, including the new Ceredigion Penfro seat, amid growing expectations of a fragmented Senedd and a dramatic shake-up in Welsh politics.

The election is the first to be held under Wales’ new expanded Senedd system, with 96 Members of the Senedd being elected across 16 large constituencies using a proportional closed-list voting system.

Reform UK appeared to finish the campaign with significant momentum following a major rally on Tuesday attended by party leader Nigel Farage. The event drew large crowds and considerable online attention as Reform attempted to convert strong polling figures into seats in Cardiff Bay for the first time.

Farage used the rally to attack both Labour and Plaid Cymru, while positioning Reform as the party of “change” for disillusioned voters. Reform campaigners have focused heavily on immigration, cost of living pressures and opposition to what they describe as “wasteful government spending.”

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth spent the final day presenting his party as the main alternative to both Labour and Reform UK, insisting Plaid could “build a fairer Wales” while warning against what he described as “divisive politics.”

Labour figures, including First Minister Eluned Morgan and deputy leader Huw Irranca-Davies, urged voters not to “take risks” with public services, arguing only Welsh Labour could protect the NHS and local councils during a period of economic uncertainty.

Labour activists were heavily focused on turnout operations in traditional strongholds, amid polling suggesting the party could lose ground after decades as the dominant force in Welsh politics.

The Conservatives attempted to rally core voters with warnings about both Labour and Reform, while also focusing on farming, the rural economy and healthcare waiting lists.

In west Wales, Conservative candidates Paul Davies and Sam Kurtz spent the day meeting voters and carrying out final campaign visits across Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion, arguing their experience and local knowledge would be important under the new electoral system.

The Liberal Democrats and Green Party also maintained visible campaigns in several areas, hoping tactical voting and the proportional voting system could help them secure representation.

Across Wales, campaign teams handed out leaflets outside transport hubs, supermarkets and town centres, while social media campaigning intensified throughout the day.

Political analysts believe turnout could prove decisive, particularly because the new voting system means relatively small shifts in support could determine the allocation of the fifth and sixth seats in many constituencies.

The campaign has been dominated by debates over the NHS, farming, the economy, transport, tourism and the rising cost of living, alongside concerns about the future direction of Welsh devolution.

Polling stations open across Wales from 7:00am until 10:00pm on Thursday, with counting due to begin on Friday morning.

The Herald will provide live election coverage online throughout polling day and count day, including updates from count centres, candidate interviews and reaction as results emerge from across west Wales and the rest of the country.

News

Plaid Cymru projected to lead Senedd as Labour faces historic collapse

Published

9 hours ago

May 6, 2026

Tom Sinclair

Final poll suggests Welsh politics could be on the brink of a major realignment

PLAID CYMRU is on course to become the largest party in the Senedd, according to the final YouGov MRP projection for ITV Cymru Wales before polling day.

The model suggests Labour’s century-long dominance of Welsh elections could be coming to an end, with Plaid projected to win 43 seats in the newly expanded 96-member Senedd.

Reform UK is forecast to finish second on 34 seats, while Labour is projected to fall to just 12.

The poll, based on responses from more than 4,600 adults between April 25 and May 4, puts Plaid Cymru on 33% of the vote, ahead of Reform UK on 29%. Labour is on 12%, the Conservatives on 9%, the Greens on 8% and the Liberal Democrats on 6%.

Labour facing major losses

The projection points to a dramatic collapse in Labour support across Wales.

YouGov’s central estimate would represent a notional loss of 32 seats for Labour compared with the 2021 result under the new electoral system.

It would also be Labour’s worst result at any major Welsh election since 1906.

The model suggests Labour may fail to top the poll in any of the 16 new Senedd constituencies, and could return no members at all in four of them.

In west Wales, Labour’s support is projected to have fallen into single figures in some areas.

First Minister Eluned Morgan, who leads Labour’s list in Ceredigion Penfro, could also be at risk if the projection proves accurate.

Reform surge

Reform UK is projected to make major gains, rising from just 1% of the vote in 2021 to 29% in the final pre-election model.

The party’s support appears to be spread widely across Wales, though it is weaker in Cardiff and strongest in parts of the south Wales valleys.

One of the most striking projections is in Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr, which includes the Merthyr Tydfil area where Keir Hardie was elected as Wales’s first Labour MP in 1900.

There, YouGov’s central estimate puts Reform UK narrowly ahead on 34%, Plaid Cymru on 33%, and Labour on 14%.

Smaller parties

The Conservatives are projected to win just four seats, which would be their weakest devolved election result.

That would leave them one short of the five members needed to form an official political group in the Senedd.

The Greens are forecast to enter the Senedd for the first time, winning two seats in Cardiff.

The Liberal Democrats are projected to win one seat in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, keeping Jane Dodds in the Senedd.

No majority expected

No party is projected to win the 49 seats needed for an outright majority.

YouGov’s modelling suggests Plaid Cymru would be best placed to lead the next Welsh Government, but would probably need support from another party.

Plaid and Labour together reach a majority in most of the model’s simulations, while a Plaid-Green arrangement does so far less often.

A Reform-Conservative majority appears unlikely in the projection.

Under the new D’Hondt voting system, small movements in vote share could still make a significant difference, particularly for the final seats in each constituency.

Polling stations open tomorrow, Thursday, May 7.