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Politics

First Welsh poll of year shows ‘Boris Bounce’

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PROFESSOR Roger Awan Scully writes: As the UK stands on the verge of leaving the European Union, voters are currently rewarding the man who has led them to this point, Prime Minister Boris Johnson. His Conservative Party is at historic levels of support in Wales, and potentially on course for a major breakthrough at the next devolved election. There are the key messages to emerge from the first Welsh Political Barometer poll of 2020, the first since the general election.
Our new poll, as is typically the case, asked about voting intentions for both Westminster and the National Assembly. For the first time, though, and in light of the recent legislation that has given 16 and 17-year-olds the right to vote in devolved elections in Wales, our sample included a representative number from that age group; they are not included in the vote intention estimates for a general election discussed below, but they are included in the estimates for the Assembly.

First, Westminster. After the strong Conservative performance in December and the further boost they have had in post-election polls conducted across Britain, it is no surprise to see the Tories doing well in our latest poll. Here are the numbers (with changes on our last pre-election Barometer poll, conducted in early December, in brackets):

Conservatives: 41% (+4)
Labour: 36% (-4)
Plaid Cymru: 13% (+3)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
Brexit Party: 3% (-2)
Greens: 2% (+1)
Others: 1 (no change)

These are historically good figures for the Conservatives in Wales. Their 41 percent support equals the highest rating they have obtained in general election voting intention this century. Labour, by contrast, see their support slip since the general election. Plaid Cymru will be reasonably pleased with a modest rise in their support; all other parties, however, are at very low levels of support.

What might such support levels for the parties mean in terms of parliamentary seats? Using the standard method, of projecting the swings since the last general election indicated by this poll uniformly across Wales, gives us the following outcome in terms of seats (with projected changes from the December result in brackets):

Labour: 18 (-4)
Conservatives: 18 (+4)
Plaid Cymru: 4 (no change)

In short, this poll projects the Conservative to retain all six seats that they gained from Labour at the general election, and on top of that to gain four more ones: Alyn and Deeside, Gower, Newport East and Newport West. All other seats are projected to be won by the party that was victorious in December.

But it is not only changes at Westminster that are suggested by our new poll.

As well as Westminster, we also asked once again about voting intentions for both the constituency and the regional ballots in a devolved election. Here are the figures for the constituency ballot (with shifts in support since our December Barometer poll once again in brackets):

Conservatives: 35% (+4)
Labour: 33% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-2)
Brexit Party: 4% (-3)
Greens: 3% (no change)
Others: 1% (no change)

These numbers (which include figures for 16 and 17-year-old voters, something that marginally reduces the Conservative lead) show that the current post-election boost to Conservative fortunes is not just confined to Westminster. The 35 percent support reported for the Conservatives is actually their highest ever reported vote intention for the constituency vote in an Assembly election. If we again assume uniform national swings since the last National Assembly election our new Barometer poll projects the Tories to gain eight constituency seats from Labour: these are (in order of current marginality) the Vale of Glamorgan, the Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Wrexham, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Newport West, and Delyn). There are no other projected constituency seat changes.

For the regional list vote, the new Barometer poll produced the following results (with changes since our December poll once again in brackets):

Conservatives: 32% (+4)
Labour: 32% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (no change)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
Greens: 3% (-1)
Brexit Party: 3% (-4)
Others: 5% (+1)

These regional vote figures once more have the Welsh Conservatives equalling their best-ever showing, from early May 2017. Allowing for the constituency results already projected, and once more assuming uniform national swings since 2016, our new poll projects the following overall results for the Assembly’s regional list seats:
Regions:

North Wales: 3 Labour, 1 Plaid
Mid and West Wales: 2 Labour, 2 Conservative
South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales East: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
These figures therefore generate the following overall projected result for the National Assembly:
Labour: 24 seats (19 constituency, 5 regional)
Conservatives: 22 seats (14 constituency, 8 regional)
Plaid Cymru: 13 seats (6 constituencies, 7 regional)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (1 constituency)

Since the inaugural election to the National Assembly in 1999, Labour has always much been the largest party in the chamber. Our new poll indicates that, around fifteen months from the next devolved election in Wales, we are currently on course for a rather different type of politics in what will soon to be known as Senedd Cymru/the Welsh Parliament.
Overall, our latest Welsh Political Barometer poll suggests that these are good times in which to be a Welsh Conservative. Indeed, those times have never been better: on all three vote intention measures, the party is equalling or exceeding the best ratings they have ever scored before. But if nothing else, the last few years in politics should have taught us to take nothing for granted. Last May the Welsh Tories scored only 6.5 percent of the vote in the European elections; now they are buoyant. Within another few months, who knows where things will be?

News

Low bus use raises concerns over viability of new Welsh bus bill

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Opposition warns of financial risk while Welsh Government defends plans to improve services

BUS passenger numbers in Wales remain significantly below pre-pandemic levels, raising questions over the long-term viability of the Welsh Government’s proposed Bus Services (Wales) Bill.

Figures released for the 12 months up to March 2024 show that bus usage in Wales has recovered to just 78.3% of its March 2020 levels—well behind the figures for Scotland (92.5%) and England (89.5%), and below the Great Britain average of 89.5%.

The statistics have prompted criticism from the Welsh Conservatives, who say the figures expose the financial risks of the new legislation.

Commenting, Peter Fox MS, the Welsh Conservative Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Transport and Infrastructure, said:
“Passenger growth has been slow for not only buses in Wales but also for trains, leading to a £295m bailout for Transport for Wales (TfW) by the Welsh Labour Government last year to compensate for declining passenger numbers.
“There was already a very real risk of Labour’s new Bus Bill becoming another money pit for the Welsh taxpayer. Once bus franchising comes into play, will we see similarly large sums of public money poured into keeping bus franchises afloat?”

He added that the Welsh Government must ensure that rural and isolated communities are not left behind in any overhaul of services: “The Labour Welsh Government must prioritise support for the most hard-to-reach areas and ensure the development of a sustainable and effective bus network that meets the needs of communities across Wales.”

The Bus Services (Wales) Bill, introduced earlier this year, would give local authorities and Transport for Wales greater control over how services are operated. The legislation is designed to replace the current deregulated system with a franchised model—similar to that used in parts of England—allowing councils to plan routes, set fares, and integrate ticketing across providers.

A Welsh Government spokesperson said the aim of the Bill is not to replicate current models but to improve accessibility, connectivity, and reliability of public transport in Wales:
“The current deregulated system has failed many communities, particularly in rural areas. The Bus Services (Wales) Bill will allow local authorities to work with providers in a more joined-up way, offering passengers a more consistent and dependable service.
“We recognise the financial challenges facing public transport, but we are committed to creating a network that serves people, not just profit.”

Public transport campaigners have said that passenger numbers alone should not be the only metric for success. Transform Cymru, a coalition advocating for sustainable transport, pointed to the need for long-term investment and public trust in services:
“The drop in passenger numbers reflects not just post-pandemic trends, but also decades of underinvestment and service cuts. If we want people to get back on buses, services need to be reliable, affordable and convenient.”

As the Bill progresses through the Senedd, its financial implications, particularly in light of current budgetary pressures, are likely to remain a key point of debate.

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Business

Cosheston Garden Centre seeking permission to expand

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A PARTLY-retrospective application to upgrade a garden centre on the main road to Pembroke Dock has been submitted to Pembrokeshire planners.

In the application, submitted through agent Hayston Developments & Planning Ltd, Mr and Mrs Wainwright seek permission for upgrade of a garden centre with a relocated garden centre sales area, additional parking and the creation of ornamental pond and wildlife enhancement area (partly in retrospect) at Cosheston Garden Centre, Slade Cross, Cosheston.

The application is a resubmission of a previously refused scheme, with the retrospective aspects of the works starting in late 2023.

The site has a long planning history and started life as a market garden and turkey farm in the 1980s and then a number of applications for new development.

A supporting statement says the previously-refused application included setting aside a significant part of the proposed new building for general retail sales as a linked farm shop and local food store/deli in addition to a coffee bar.

It was refused on the grounds of “the proposal was deemed to be contrary to retail policies and the likely impact of that use on the vitality and viability of nearby centres,” the statement says, adding: “Secondly, in noting that vehicular access was off the A 477 (T) the Welsh Government raised an objection on the grounds that insufficient transport information had been submitted in respect of traffic generation and highway safety.”

It says the new scheme seeks to address those issues; the development largely the same with the proposed new garden centre building is now only proposed to accommodate a relocated garden centre display sales area rather than a new retail sales area with other goods, but retaining a small ancillary coffee bar area.

“Additional information, in the form of an independent and comprehensive Transport Statement, has now been submitted to address the objection raised by the Welsh Government in respect of highway safety,” the statement says.

It concedes: “It is acknowledged that both the creation of the ornamental pond and ‘overspill’ parking area do not have the benefit of planning permission and therefore these aspects of the application are ‘in retrospect’ and seeks their retention.”

It finishes: “Essentially, this proposal seeks to upgrade existing facilities and offer to the general public. It includes the ‘relocation’ of a previously existing retail display area which had been ‘lost’ to the ornamental pond/amenity area and to provide this use within the proposed new building and moves away from the previously proposed ‘farm shop’ idea which we thought had merit. This revised proposal therefore involves an ‘upgrading’ rather than an ‘expansion’ of the existing Garden Centre use.”

The proposals will be considered by county planners at a later date.

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Business

Historic Pembrokeshire pub’s major facelift gets the go-ahead

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A RETROSPECTIVE scheme for works at a historic Pembrokeshire pub has been approved by county planners.

In an application to Pembrokeshire County Council, Chris Grey sought permission for retrospective works for additional shower/toilet facilities for the Speculation Inn public house and authorised Caravan & Camping Club, near Hundleton, and a replacement store.

A supporting statement through agent Hayston Developments & Planning Ltd said: “The premises has changed hands in recent years and the pub has been sensitively refurbished and the rear paddock operates under a Camping and Caravanning Club exemption and has proven very popular.

“The applicants seek two expansions, which are mainly in retrospect and relate to the following: Bespoke separate toilet / showers for the authorised campsite / tourer site. A small facility is available in the pub, however, this is not ideal for campers who need showers.

“Replacement of a corrugated building attached to the pub, which had collapsed, with a replacement store for the Speculation Inn and its various function.

“The toilets are positioned to the rear of the Speculation Inn and its beer garden and use an existing treatment plant and soakaways for roof water.”

It added: “It is the applicant’s intention to retain the current toilet/shower facilities offered to visitors who wish to park their caravans at the Speculation Inn Meadow certified site, or who have come with the intention of camping, and by expanding their offering with a further toilet / shower block, all being more appropriate for modern camping and caravanning client expectations and being Covid friendly.

“A new British Standard compliant package treatment plant with associated drainage fields is now installed ensuring that the clarified water will not cause diffuse water pollution (DWP) in the downstream water network.”

It concluded: “It already brings a benefit in regard to providing quality tourism operations with required enhanced facilities.”

No objections were received to the proposals, an officer report recommending approval said.

The application was conditionally approved by county planners.

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