Politics

First Welsh poll of year shows ‘Boris Bounce’

Published

5 years ago

January 30, 2020

PROFESSOR Roger Awan Scully writes: As the UK stands on the verge of leaving the European Union, voters are currently rewarding the man who has led them to this point, Prime Minister Boris Johnson. His Conservative Party is at historic levels of support in Wales, and potentially on course for a major breakthrough at the next devolved election. There are the key messages to emerge from the first Welsh Political Barometer poll of 2020, the first since the general election.
Our new poll, as is typically the case, asked about voting intentions for both Westminster and the National Assembly. For the first time, though, and in light of the recent legislation that has given 16 and 17-year-olds the right to vote in devolved elections in Wales, our sample included a representative number from that age group; they are not included in the vote intention estimates for a general election discussed below, but they are included in the estimates for the Assembly.

First, Westminster. After the strong Conservative performance in December and the further boost they have had in post-election polls conducted across Britain, it is no surprise to see the Tories doing well in our latest poll. Here are the numbers (with changes on our last pre-election Barometer poll, conducted in early December, in brackets):

Conservatives: 41% (+4)
Labour: 36% (-4)
Plaid Cymru: 13% (+3)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
Brexit Party: 3% (-2)
Greens: 2% (+1)
Others: 1 (no change)

These are historically good figures for the Conservatives in Wales. Their 41 percent support equals the highest rating they have obtained in general election voting intention this century. Labour, by contrast, see their support slip since the general election. Plaid Cymru will be reasonably pleased with a modest rise in their support; all other parties, however, are at very low levels of support.

What might such support levels for the parties mean in terms of parliamentary seats? Using the standard method, of projecting the swings since the last general election indicated by this poll uniformly across Wales, gives us the following outcome in terms of seats (with projected changes from the December result in brackets):

Labour: 18 (-4)
Conservatives: 18 (+4)
Plaid Cymru: 4 (no change)

In short, this poll projects the Conservative to retain all six seats that they gained from Labour at the general election, and on top of that to gain four more ones: Alyn and Deeside, Gower, Newport East and Newport West. All other seats are projected to be won by the party that was victorious in December.

But it is not only changes at Westminster that are suggested by our new poll.

As well as Westminster, we also asked once again about voting intentions for both the constituency and the regional ballots in a devolved election. Here are the figures for the constituency ballot (with shifts in support since our December Barometer poll once again in brackets):

Conservatives: 35% (+4)
Labour: 33% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-2)
Brexit Party: 4% (-3)
Greens: 3% (no change)
Others: 1% (no change)

These numbers (which include figures for 16 and 17-year-old voters, something that marginally reduces the Conservative lead) show that the current post-election boost to Conservative fortunes is not just confined to Westminster. The 35 percent support reported for the Conservatives is actually their highest ever reported vote intention for the constituency vote in an Assembly election. If we again assume uniform national swings since the last National Assembly election our new Barometer poll projects the Tories to gain eight constituency seats from Labour: these are (in order of current marginality) the Vale of Glamorgan, the Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Wrexham, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Newport West, and Delyn). There are no other projected constituency seat changes.

For the regional list vote, the new Barometer poll produced the following results (with changes since our December poll once again in brackets):

Conservatives: 32% (+4)
Labour: 32% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (no change)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
Greens: 3% (-1)
Brexit Party: 3% (-4)
Others: 5% (+1)

These regional vote figures once more have the Welsh Conservatives equalling their best-ever showing, from early May 2017. Allowing for the constituency results already projected, and once more assuming uniform national swings since 2016, our new poll projects the following overall results for the Assembly’s regional list seats:
Regions:

North Wales: 3 Labour, 1 Plaid
Mid and West Wales: 2 Labour, 2 Conservative
South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales East: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
These figures therefore generate the following overall projected result for the National Assembly:
Labour: 24 seats (19 constituency, 5 regional)
Conservatives: 22 seats (14 constituency, 8 regional)
Plaid Cymru: 13 seats (6 constituencies, 7 regional)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (1 constituency)

Since the inaugural election to the National Assembly in 1999, Labour has always much been the largest party in the chamber. Our new poll indicates that, around fifteen months from the next devolved election in Wales, we are currently on course for a rather different type of politics in what will soon to be known as Senedd Cymru/the Welsh Parliament.
Overall, our latest Welsh Political Barometer poll suggests that these are good times in which to be a Welsh Conservative. Indeed, those times have never been better: on all three vote intention measures, the party is equalling or exceeding the best ratings they have ever scored before. But if nothing else, the last few years in politics should have taught us to take nothing for granted. Last May the Welsh Tories scored only 6.5 percent of the vote in the European elections; now they are buoyant. Within another few months, who knows where things will be?

Education

Pembrokeshire free school transport call to be heard at County Hall

Published

2 hours ago

November 22, 2024

Bruce Sinclair - Local Democracy Reporter

A CALL to allow school pupils from Johnston and Tiers Cross access to free school transport to the nearby Haverfordwest high school is to be heard by councillors next week.

Due to a change in catchment areas the pupils are no longer able to access free transport to Haverfordwest, instead coming under the Milford Haven catchment area.

A petition calling for the reinstatement of the former catchment area to access free transport for pupils to Haverfordwest was recently started in the county.

The e-petition, which ran from September 18-November 1 on the council’s own website, attracted 351 signatures, meeting the threshold for a debate at the relevant Pembrokeshire County Council overview and scrutiny committee, in this case the Schools And Learning Overview And Scrutiny Committee meeting of November 28.

The petition, started by Kirsty Coaker, reads: “We call on Pembrokeshire County Council to change Johnston and Tiers Cross School Catchment back to Haverfordwest.

“Children of Johnston and Tiers Cross are now ineligible for free school transport to Haverfordwest High due to the areas no longer being in ‘catchment’.

“Both Johnston and Tiers Cross are Haverfordwest postal codes and are classed as Haverfordwest, yet the school catchment is Milford Haven.

“Please help our children access suitable transport to and from secondary school.”

The e-petition will now be considered at the November 28 meeting.

Climate

Pembrokeshire group plans for larger community wind turbine

Published

3 hours ago

November 22, 2024

Bruce Sinclair - Local Democracy Reporter

A NORTH Pembrokeshire group which has raised more than £76,000 from its community wind turbine for local projects is hoping to expand with a bigger turbine.

In an application to Pembrokeshire County Council, Abergwaun Community Turbine Ltd, through agent Machynlleth-based Dulas Ltd is hoping to get permission for a larger turbine to replace the existing Abergwaun Community Turbine.

The proposed turbine, in a pasture field at Trebover Farm, to the south of Fishguard, would be 67m tall, the existing 2015 one being 45 metres.

In supporting statements, parent company Transition Bro Gwaun said: “The Community Climate Fund (CCF) is the mechanism by which Transition Bro Gwaun (TBG) is fulfilling our ambition of funding projects in Fishguard, Goodwick and across North Pembrokeshire, using income from the community wind turbine.

“The core themes for grants are climate change mitigation and adaptation, enhancement of biodiversity and improvements to community resilience through promotion of community engagement and resource sharing.”

In 2015, TBG raised its 50 per cent share of capital funding for the project by means of loans from 28 local individuals and four community groups, contributing a total of £286,500, the other 50 per cent contributed by landowners Parc-y-Morfa Farms Ltd.

The statement added: “Profit generated by sale of electricity from the turbine is split 50:50 between TBG and Parcy-Morfa Farms Ltd through the jointly owned trading arm, Abergwaun Community Turbine. By the end of 2022, all loans had been repaid, allowing the launch of TBG’s Community Climate Fund. This year we have awarded our third round of grants bringing the total amount granted to £76,036.”

In 2022, £15,274 was awarded to seven projects, including Fishguard Sports AFC to install solar panels on their clubhouse as part of their Tregroes Park development, Ysgol Bro Gwaun for their Increasing Biodiversity and Bees project, and Nevern Valley Veg / Llysiau Cwm Nyfer to install a solar powered vegetable irrigation scheme.

In 2023, £39,85 was made available for seven projects, including Sea Trust Wales to part fund the installation of solar panels on the Ocean Lab roof and to produce a display on solar technology, Letterston Memorial Hall to part fund the installation of an air source heat pump heating system, and Fishguard and Goodwick Rugby Club to install solar panels on their clubhouse.

2024 awards of £20,917 were made to six projects, including Theatr Gwaun to insulate their loft to reduce heating loss, Parc Cerrig Growers for developing a rainwater harvesting system with a pond to irrigate their allotments, Caerhys Organic Community Agriculture for an electric cargo bike for delivering organic vegetables in the Fishguard and St Davids areas, and Nevern Valley Veg to develop wildlife ponds and rainwater harvesting for food production.

The supporting documentation concludes: “The repowering of the existing turbine at Trebover would require a limited increase in turbine size which would result in a very limited change in landscape and visual effects in comparison to the existing Trebover turbine.”

The application will be considered by planners at a later date.

Business

Call to end ‘fad’ of ‘school dogs’ in Pembrokeshire

Published

8 hours ago

November 22, 2024

Bruce Sinclair - Local Democracy Reporter

A CALL to end the ‘fad’ of permanent ‘school dogs’ in Pembrokeshire for their benefit and the befit of the schools, instead using visiting ‘therapy dogs’ is to be heard next week.

Pembrokeshire County Council’s Schools And Learning Overview And Scrutiny Committee meeting of November 28 will consider a public submission by Robert Thomas – who works with therapy dogs – on the subject of school dogs.

The submission reads: “My definition of a school dog is one that spends long periods in the school and is managed and owned by school employees not outside assessed and insured visiting therapy dogs who stay for an hour with a competent handler.

“The welfare of many dogs in schools in Pembrokeshire has been compromised over the last few years and we are concerned that the rise in the popularity of school-owned or teacher-owned dogs is an animal welfare issue.

“I can think of several school dogs in Pembrokeshire where it has gone wrong for the animal.”

He cites examples of ‘school dogs’ the county, where he says they have had to be removed, with the animals being unsettled, barking and even nipping on occasions, showing “a lack of understanding of animal welfare”.

His submission adds: “We have done some work with the Animal Welfare team at the Welsh Government around licensing this field, a consultation was completed in March 2023, currently awaiting the outcome.

“It has become a fad across the country and many dogs spend all day in schools supported by staff members who have another job to do. It feels like PCC does not have a policy overarching animal welfare policy in schools to protect dogs from being seen as staff members and there purely for human benefit, not the dogs.

“Dogs need to rest and sleep during the day and not in school. The visiting therapy dog model works best as the impact is greatest and the welfare of the dog is managed externally. If the dog is there all the time that can diminish the impact, and the novelty can wear off for the pupils.

“In my experience schools should concentrate on teaching and leave the therapy dog introduction to those that have the expertise in animal welfare.”

The submission will be considered by committee members at the November 28 meeting.