Politics
Pembrokeshire heads to the polls
THE ELECTIONS to the Welsh Parliament/Senedd Cymru take place today, Thursday (May 6).
Over the last few weeks, we’ve published a guide to the manifestos of each of Wales’ principal parties.
Next today is the crunch and after that comes the business of forming a government.
But first, voting.
HOW TO VOTE
Wales has a combination of voting systems.On Thursday, May 6, you will have two ballot papers for the Senedd. One for your constituency, the other for your region.X in the box against your candidate for the constituency.X in the box for the party you want on the regional list.Forty constituency seats, with the same boundaries as the Westminster election constituencies, elect one member each through first past the post.
The winners of constituency seats don’t need most of the votes, only one more than the candidate in second place.
Twenty further Members of the Senedd are elected on a regional list system.
Wales is divided into five regions, each of which returns four Senedd members.The regions are: Mid & West Wales; North Wales; South Wales Central; South Wales East; South Wales West.
The parties prepare a list of candidates in their own order of preference.
The system supposedly balances the risk of a one-party state by balancing constituency success against votes cast for parties.
THE REGIONAL LIST
If a party is electorally successful in the constituency vote, it starts with a handicap in the regional count.
The formula is complex, but it basically divides the total number of regional votes by one plus the number of constituencies won. Successive rounds of counting then divide the regional vote by one plus the number of constituencies plus any regional seat won in the preceding round.
After four rounds of counting, you have four Senedd Members for the region.
Labour had two regional seats in Mid and West Wales after the 2016 election only because it performed dismally in Mid and West Wales’ constituencies.
If the Labour vote collapses in Mid and West Wales, after this election it might return only one MS to Cardiff. In that case, the lucky winner would be Eluned Morgan.
Ironically, if Plaid Cymru wins Llanelli it will almost certainly lose its regional seat – unless other parties’ regional vote falls and Plaid’s significantly increases.
The Liberal Democrats held one seat in Mid and West Wales last time out, Brecon and Radnor. That success cost William Powell (number one on the candidate list for the LibDems in 2016) a seat. The Liberal Democrats were in poll position for a second seat after the regional votes were counted.
However, in the final round of counting, UKIP’s abject failure in Mid and West Wales’ constituencies combined with regional votes from Pembrokeshire gifted Cardiff Bay with Neil Hamilton’s contrarian presence.
That fact underlines the regional votes’ importance.
FIRST TIME VOTERS
The unknown in this election is the number of first-time voters since the franchise’s expansion to sixteen and seventeen-year-olds. Younger voters tend to be less tribal and more single-issue driven.
If young voters turn out in numbers, there could be a significant swing towards parties that address issues of importance to them in a way that appeals to younger voters.
The likely beneficiaries would be parties closely connected to environmental issues – or at least those who claim to be.
At this point, young voter turnout could be disappointingly low. The last school year was meant to educate prospective young voters about the coming election. Thanks to the pandemic, that fell by the wayside.
In the future, Civics’ presence in the school curriculum is vital. Schools must give students an understanding of how government works, the importance of democracy and citizens’ duty to engage with it.
WHERE WILL UKIP VOTES GO?
The second question is where UKIP’s votes will end up. The Party’s membership, support, and electoral profile have withered along with its momentary political relevance.
Although Pembrokeshire might again buck the regional trend, it’s unlikely UKIP will cross the threshold to get a seat in Mid and West Wales.
Abolish the Assembly (sic.) superficially appears the most attractive party for those who backed UKIP on the regional list last time out. However, the longer the campaign has gone on, the more Abolish has faded. An ITV interview with its leader, Richard Suchorzewski, was truly cringe-inducing.
After saying he respected Wales as a country, Mr Suchorzewski didn’t have an answer when asked to name another country without a parliament.
It was embarrassing to watch and, whether you feel Wales needs/deserves a separate Parliament or not, dire.
With Andrew RT Davies in charge, the Conservatives have burnished their ‘BluKip’ credentials. However, their campaign is endangered by the impression that a Welsh Conservative government would be operated from Westminster and not Wales, with Simon Hart as de facto Governor-General.
It’s a tricky line for the Conservatives to tread. However, if the Conservatives pick up UKIP votes, as well as get their existing regional voter base to turn out -as they did in December 2019 – Tomos Dafydd could pick up a Mid and West regional seat for the Party.
VOTING IS WHAT COUNTS
There are plenty of opportunities to vote on the regional and constituency lists to register what’s called ‘a protest vote’.
Protesting in silence on election day by not voting and complaining for the next five years is an empty and futile gesture.
It’s objectively more important TO vote than HOW you vote.
Voting is what counts.
Nothing else matters in an election.
It’s a few minutes out of your lives and can change Wales.
News
Who is Andy Burnham, the Prime Minister-in-waiting?
The Greater Manchester mayor has spent years outside Westminster, but Starmer’s resignation has placed him on the brink of Number 10
ANDY BURNHAM has spent years being described as Labour’s future. Today, that future appears to have arrived.
Following Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation announcement, the Mayor of Greater Manchester is now widely regarded as the overwhelming favourite to become Labour leader and Britain’s next Prime Minister.
For many people outside politics, Burnham is best known as the outspoken mayor who challenged Boris Johnson’s government during the COVID-19 pandemic. But his political career stretches back more than twenty years and includes some of the most senior jobs in government.
Born in Merseyside in 1970, Burnham grew up in a working-class family and has always remained closely associated with his northern roots. A lifelong Everton supporter, he has often spoken about the importance of community, public services and opportunity for ordinary families.
After studying English at Cambridge University, he worked briefly in journalism before entering politics. He was elected Labour MP for Leigh in Greater Manchester in 2001 and quickly became one of the party’s rising figures.
Under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, Burnham climbed the ministerial ladder. He served as Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Culture Secretary and later Health Secretary, giving him experience across some of the most important departments in government.
His first bid for the Labour leadership came in 2010, after Labour’s general election defeat. He lost to Ed Miliband, but the campaign raised his profile significantly. Five years later, he ran again, only to be defeated by Jeremy Corbyn in the contest that transformed Labour politics.
Rather than remain on the Westminster backbenches, Burnham made a bold move in 2017 by standing for the newly created role of Mayor of Greater Manchester. He won comfortably and went on to become one of the most recognisable regional politicians in Britain.
His national profile grew sharply during the pandemic, when he publicly challenged the UK Government over restrictions and financial support for northern cities. His confrontation with Downing Street won him praise from voters who felt their communities were being ignored by Westminster.
Supporters say Burnham’s appeal lies in his ability to connect with traditional Labour voters while remaining acceptable to the party’s centre ground. They see him as authentic, approachable and more in touch with everyday concerns than many Westminster politicians.
Politically, Burnham has championed greater devolution, arguing that power should be moved away from London to regions and nations across the UK. He has also backed transport reform, stronger public services and economic policies aimed at spreading growth beyond the South East of England.
For Wales, a Burnham premiership would be watched closely. He would inherit a Labour Party still reeling from its collapse in the Senedd election, where Plaid Cymru emerged as the dominant force in Welsh politics.
His emphasis on devolution may be welcomed in Wales, but he would face immediate pressure to show that any new relationship with the nations of the UK is more than rhetoric.
Critics argue that Burnham can be short on detail and long on broad messages. Others point out that he has spent nearly a decade outside Westminster and would need to rebuild relationships quickly in Parliament.
Despite those concerns, few figures in Labour possess his combination of experience, public recognition and electoral success. His victory in the Makerfield by-election returned him to the House of Commons and immediately intensified speculation about Starmer’s future.
Now, with Starmer stepping aside, that speculation appears close to becoming reality.
If Burnham secures the Labour leadership without a serious challenger, as many expect, he will become Britain’s next Prime Minister and inherit a government facing economic pressure, political division and a public increasingly impatient for change.
For a politician who has spent years waiting in the wings, the moment may finally have arrived.
News
Former West Wales MS says Starmer resignation felt ‘increasingly inevitable’
Samuel Kurtz says public frustration has grown after two years of Labour controversies and policy decisions
FORMER West Wales MS Samuel Kurtz has said Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation felt “increasingly inevitable” after months of controversy and public frustration.
The Welsh Conservative said he watched the Prime Minister’s Downing Street statement with “genuine frustration”, adding that he wanted the UK to be respected regardless of which party was in government.
Starmer announced on Monday (Jun 22) that he would resign as Prime Minister and Labour leader, just 12 days before the second anniversary of Labour’s 2024 general election victory.
Mr Kurtz said: “As a British citizen, I sighed genuine frustration while watching this morning. Whatever the political colour of the Government, I want our country to be respected at home and on the international stage.

“But, in truth, this moment has felt increasingly inevitable as the weeks turned into months.”
He pointed to a series of controversies and policy decisions, including the Lord Alli gifts row, winter fuel allowance cuts, the Family Farm Tax, rising National Insurance, defence spending and domestic energy production.
Mr Kurtz said people “simply feel worse off”, adding that confidence in the economy remained low.
He said: “A Government should ultimately be judged on whether life is getting better for the people it serves.
“After two years marked by the controversies and a series of damaging policy decisions mentioned above, it’s difficult to argue this Government has passed that test.”
Mr Kurtz also questioned what would happen next, asking whether Labour would see an “Andy Burnham coronation”, whether Wes Streeting could build enough support, or whether an outsider could emerge.
He added that he would be watching the leadership contest “from the sidelines with interest”.
Labour is expected to open nominations for a new leader on July 9, with Starmer remaining in office until his successor is chosen.
News
Rhun ap Iorwerth urges new deal for Wales after Starmer quits
First Minister says next Prime Minister must focus on greater powers, fair funding and respect for Wales’ democratic mandate
FIRST MINISTER Rhun ap Iorwerth has said the next UK Prime Minister must commit to a “new relationship with Wales” as Sir Keir Starmer prepares to leave office.
The Plaid Cymru leader said he wished Sir Keir well, but warned that political instability in Westminster was affecting the Welsh Government’s ability to engage with Number 10 on issues that matter to people in Wales.

His comments came after Starmer announced on Monday (Jun 22) that he would resign as Prime Minister and leader of the Labour Party.
Starmer will remain in Downing Street until Labour selects a successor.
Mr ap Iorwerth said: “I am disappointed that the Welsh Government’s ability to engage with the UK Prime Minister on issues which matter to the people of Wales is being hampered by the turmoil in Westminster.
“I wish Sir Keir Starmer well as he prepares to leave office. I would like to see his successor recognising that Wales needs a new relationship with Westminster, with a focus on greater powers, fair funding, and respect for the democratic mandate delivered by the people of Wales.
“My government and I will always seek a constructive relationship with whoever is in Number 10, but we have clear expectations that the respect agenda must work both ways.”
In a shorter statement posted online, the First Minister added: “The next PM must commit to a new relationship with Wales — with a focus on greater powers, fair funding and respect for our mandate.”
Labour’s National Executive Committee is expected to open nominations for the party leadership on July 9, with the process due to be completed before Parliament returns from its summer break in September if a contest is required.
Andy Burnham is widely expected to enter the race after returning to Parliament following his victory in the Makerfield by-election.
Reform
Responding to the resignation, Reform UK Sir Fynwy Torfaen MS Laura Anne Jones said the change in Labour’s leadership would not erase the party’s record of failure or reverse the country’s decline.
Ms Jones said: “History will judge Keir Starmer as one of the worst Prime Ministers this country has ever seen. He failed to properly invest in our national defence at a time of growing global instability, doubled down on ideological net zero policies that have driven up costs for families and businesses that I represent, Labour refused to back Britain’s own oil and gas industry, backed the disastrous family farm tax that led to suicides and presided over a Government that too often put political dogma ahead of common sense.”
She added: “It is also worth remembering that Monmouthshire MP Catherine Fookes was Sir Keir Starmer’s top advisor as his Parliamentary Private Secretary. His record was not created in isolation, and those who stood beside him cannot now pretend they had nothing to do with it.”
The Reform MS stressed that in Wales, Labour, with the support of Plaid Cymru, spent “more than a quarter of a century running down public services.”
She said:m “They left us with record NHS waiting lists, struggling schools, crumbling roads, declining rural communities and an economy that has held Wales back. The faces may change, but that record cannot. Labour blindly follow ideological dogma that is destroying Britain.”
Ms Jones concluded: “This country does not need another political rebrand or another round of excuses. It needs a completely different direction before its too late. Reform UK will continue holding Governments to account across Britain, offering the common sense alternative that people are crying out for. But it is now more essential than ever that the electorate put Reform into Government in Westminster. The establishment parties of the Tories and Labour have failed our country, it’s now time for something new.”
Liberal Democrats
Welsh Liberal Democrats Spokesperson David Chadwick MP said: “Changing the person at the top won’t change much unless Labour finally confronts the structural problems that continue to hold Wales back.
“Despite Labour’s catastrophic Senedd election results, there is little sign that Westminster Labour’s attitude towards Wales has changed.
“The next Prime Minister must also learn a lesson that the last five have ignored: you cannot sustainably grow the economy without pursuing a closer relationship with the EU or introducing a fairer funding formula for Wales that recognises the unique needs of our population.
“Wales needs more than a new Prime Minister. We need a Westminster government that finally takes Wales seriously.”
The change of leadership comes at a sensitive time for Wales, with questions over fair funding, the future of devolution, public services and the relationship between Cardiff Bay and Westminster likely to feature prominently in the weeks ahead.
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