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Politics

Pembrokeshire heads to the polls

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THE ELECTIONS to the Welsh Parliament/Senedd Cymru take place today, Thursday (May 6).

Over the last few weeks, we’ve published a guide to the manifestos of each of Wales’ principal parties.

Next today is the crunch and after that comes the business of forming a government.

But first, voting.

HOW TO VOTE

Wales has a combination of voting systems.On Thursday, May 6, you will have two ballot papers for the Senedd. One for your constituency, the other for your region.X in the box against your candidate for the constituency.X in the box for the party you want on the regional list.Forty constituency seats, with the same boundaries as the Westminster election constituencies, elect one member each through first past the post.
The winners of constituency seats don’t need most of the votes, only one more than the candidate in second place.
Twenty further Members of the Senedd are elected on a regional list system.
Wales is divided into five regions, each of which returns four Senedd members.The regions are: Mid & West Wales; North Wales; South Wales Central; South Wales East; South Wales West.
The parties prepare a list of candidates in their own order of preference.
The system supposedly balances the risk of a one-party state by balancing constituency success against votes cast for parties.

THE REGIONAL LIST

If a party is electorally successful in the constituency vote, it starts with a handicap in the regional count.

The formula is complex, but it basically divides the total number of regional votes by one plus the number of constituencies won. Successive rounds of counting then divide the regional vote by one plus the number of constituencies plus any regional seat won in the preceding round.

After four rounds of counting, you have four Senedd Members for the region.

Labour had two regional seats in Mid and West Wales after the 2016 election only because it performed dismally in Mid and West Wales’ constituencies. 

If the Labour vote collapses in Mid and West Wales, after this election it might return only one MS to Cardiff. In that case, the lucky winner would be Eluned Morgan.

Ironically, if Plaid Cymru wins Llanelli it will almost certainly lose its regional seat – unless other parties’ regional vote falls and Plaid’s significantly increases.

The Liberal Democrats held one seat in Mid and West Wales last time out, Brecon and Radnor. That success cost William Powell (number one on the candidate list for the LibDems in 2016) a seat. The Liberal Democrats were in poll position for a second seat after the regional votes were counted.

However, in the final round of counting, UKIP’s abject failure in Mid and West Wales’ constituencies combined with regional votes from Pembrokeshire gifted Cardiff Bay with Neil Hamilton’s contrarian presence.

That fact underlines the regional votes’ importance.

FIRST TIME VOTERS

The unknown in this election is the number of first-time voters since the franchise’s expansion to sixteen and seventeen-year-olds. Younger voters tend to be less tribal and more single-issue driven.

If young voters turn out in numbers, there could be a significant swing towards parties that address issues of importance to them in a way that appeals to younger voters. 

The likely beneficiaries would be parties closely connected to environmental issues – or at least those who claim to be.

At this point, young voter turnout could be disappointingly low. The last school year was meant to educate prospective young voters about the coming election. Thanks to the pandemic, that fell by the wayside.

In the future, Civics’ presence in the school curriculum is vital. Schools must give students an understanding of how government works, the importance of democracy and citizens’ duty to engage with it.

WHERE WILL UKIP VOTES GO?

The second question is where UKIP’s votes will end up. The Party’s membership, support, and electoral profile have withered along with its momentary political relevance. 

Although Pembrokeshire might again buck the regional trend, it’s unlikely UKIP will cross the threshold to get a seat in Mid and West Wales.

Abolish the Assembly (sic.) superficially appears the most attractive party for those who backed UKIP on the regional list last time out. However, the longer the campaign has gone on, the more Abolish has faded. An ITV interview with its leader, Richard Suchorzewski, was truly cringe-inducing.

After saying he respected Wales as a country, Mr Suchorzewski didn’t have an answer when asked to name another country without a parliament.

It was embarrassing to watch and, whether you feel Wales needs/deserves a separate Parliament or not, dire.

With Andrew RT Davies in charge, the Conservatives have burnished their ‘BluKip’ credentials. However, their campaign is endangered by the impression that a Welsh Conservative government would be operated from Westminster and not Wales, with Simon Hart as de facto Governor-General. 

It’s a tricky line for the Conservatives to tread. However, if the Conservatives pick up UKIP votes, as well as get their existing regional voter base to turn out -as they did in December 2019 – Tomos Dafydd could pick up a Mid and West regional seat for the Party.

VOTING IS WHAT COUNTS

There are plenty of opportunities to vote on the regional and constituency lists to register what’s called ‘a protest vote’.

Protesting in silence on election day by not voting and complaining for the next five years is an empty and futile gesture.

It’s objectively more important TO vote than HOW you vote.

Voting is what counts.

Nothing else matters in an election.

It’s a few minutes out of your lives and can change Wales.

News

Gething warns of ‘fragility’ of Welsh devolution

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THE FIRST Minister warned that devolution remains fragile as Senedd members reflected on the 25th anniversary of the first election to the then-National Assembly.

Vaughan Gething described the findings of an independent commission on Wales’ constitutional future as a “wake-up call of the fragility of devolution as we know it”.

Mr Gething said the report highlights the opportunity costs of doing nothing to actively improve democracy and civil engagement in Wales.

He told the chamber, also known as the Siambr: “We have real challenges before us, and we cannot ever be complacent about our ability to achieve more for Wales.

“A better future for Wales needs us to take action and continue the devolution journey.”

The First Minister highlighted “successes” of devolution so far, including carrier bag charges, free prescriptions, Wales’ opt-out system for organ donation and a new curriculum.

Andrew RT Davies criticised those on the right of Welsh politics – including some in his own party – who argue the Senedd should be abolished.

“I don’t agree with that,” said the Tory group leader. “And I will argue every time with anyone who says that Wales should put its parliament to one side and go back to a 1950s, 1960s model of government. That’s not the modern Wales we want to see.”

Mr Davies disagreed that devolution sets a trajectory towards inevitable independence as he called for a relentless focus on utilising current powers to improve people’s lives.

Raising concerns about low turnout, he said the legitimacy of the Welsh Parliament will grow if a greater proportion of people vote in Senedd elections.

He said: “There is a lot of work to do and the big job of work is to get the people of Wales engaged as to what we can do as a parliament and what you can do as a government.”

Rhun ap Iorwerth called for more innovation in the delivery of public services in Wales, with devolution providing a buffer against the headwinds of Westminster and beyond.

The Plaid Cymru leader highlighted that Wales Governance Centre data shows a majority of people want more devolution, with support for independence almost tripling since 1999.

He urged the Welsh Government to carve a distinct path for constitutional change in Wales.

Mr Iorwerth lamented missed opportunities to make strides towards tackling challenges around the economy, health, education and child poverty.

He said: “Let us ensure the next 25 years focus on proving the true value of devolution, by tackling those challenges … and strengthening our democracy.”

Jane Dodds paid tribute to former Lib-Dem members Mick Bates and Aled Roberts, two “very loyal and committed public servants”, who died in recent years.

The Lib Dems’ leader in Wales pointed out that her predecessor, Kirsty Williams, guided backbench legislation on nurse staffing levels through the Senedd onto the statute book.

Ms Dodds, who represents Mid and West Wales, told the chamber her mother was part of a stakeholder group that helped in the development of the then-Assembly.

“She wasn’t a politician at all; she was a community agitator,” she said. “And that’s where, I think, we should be going back to: listening to those community agitators, making sure that we involve everybody across Wales….

“We have an awesome opportunity to continue to change Wales, to make it more radical, progressive, surprising and inspiring, but we do need to get back to listening.”

Vikki Howells, a Labour backbencher who represents Cynon Valley, said it should be a matter of pride that the Senedd has not only endured but matured.

The former history teacher at Caerphilly’s St Cenydd Comprehensive said: “It’s not always been an easy journey, but we all owe a debt of gratitude to those who came before us and worked hard to establish a confident, outward-looking parliament.”

Luke Fletcher, who was three at the time of the 1999 election, pointed out that a generation has grown up with the Senedd.

The Plaid Cymru MS for South Wales West stressed that delivering improvements to people’s lives must be the focus of the next 25 years.

John Griffiths, who is one of the four sitting members first elected in 1999, called for new constitutional arrangements to recognise the reality of a devolved UK.

Adam Price, the former Plaid Cymru leader, raised concerns about low turnout, with less than half of the electorate voting in the six Senedd elections since 1999.

He said “I think the failure to achieve more than 50% turnout in any of the elections since the creation of the institution is a problem that we have to solve, isn’t it?

“Because the longer that continues, the more it will erode the legitimacy but also the effectiveness of this institution.”

Mr Price, a former MP, who represents Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, urged Wales to introduce mandatory voting for the 2030 election.

Mr Gething said he personally supports compulsory voting but the Welsh Government does not yet have a fixed position, suggesting it is not among his administration’s priorities.

Heledd Fychan, the Plaid Cymru MS for South Wales Central, highlighted that Wales was the first UK nation to introduce free access to museums.

She said: “It was a huge success; within a year, we saw an increase of 88% in those accessing our national collections, going from 764,599 to 1.4 million, which is incredible.”

Samuel Kurtz, the Conservative MS for Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire, who was seven in 1999, urged the public to have their say at the ballot box.

Closing the statement on May 7, Elin Jones, who is the speaker or Llywydd, stressed that it is the people’s Senedd, not a politicians’ parliament.

She said: “We were elected to look forward, and to plan for the future, and that’s what we’re doing here, for the next 25 years, and, indeed, the next century.”

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News

Teifi Valley pylon concerns raised in Parliament

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BEN LAKE MP has urged the UK Government to make underground cabling the default method for installing new electricity grid infrastructure.

There are 4,500 miles of overhead electricity transmission lines in England and Wales. This contrasts with just over 900 miles of underground cables. ‘Undergrounding’, the replacement of overhead cables with underground cables, is used in limited circumstances, such as in nationally designated landscapes.

There have been calls for an increase in undergrounding. However, the government has pointed to several issues, including the higher cost of placing cables underground when using traditional open trenching methods. However, recent advancements in cable ploughing techniques have significantly reduced the cost of placing such cables underground, such that MPs are calling on the UK Government to adopt the method as their preferred approach to new grid infrastructure.

Green GEN Cymru is proposing a new 132kV overhead line to connect Lan Fawr Energy Park in West Wales to a new National Grid substation in Carmarthen. As part of the initial consultation process, significant concerns were raised by residents and businesses about the visual, environmental, and economic impact of the proposed overhead line – with several public meetings and campaign groups forming over recent MONTHS to oppose the proposals.

Concerns over the proposed Tywi Teifi network have previously been raised in the Senedd and last week Ben Lake MP reiterated calls for the undergrounding of transmission cables during a debate in Westminster Hall on Pylons and upgrading the National Grid.

During his speech Mr Lake stated: “What’s at heart here is this idea of just transition – of balancing the concerns of communities with the need for new infrastructure. Although definitions of just transition differ, my understanding of the concept is that it should see to bring about fairer outcomes from the transition to net zero by maximising the benefits of climate action and minimising the negative impact for communities.

“We all agree that the National Grid needs upgrading. It needs strengthening, but it is disappointing that the Government has, thus far, failed to truly consider the benefits and advantages of cable ploughing techniques.”

Mr Lake argued that installing transmission cables by using cable ploughing techniques, such as is used by a local company based in Pencader (ATP), could drastically reduce the cost and time taken to complete infrastructure upgrades.

Mr Lake added: “Cable ploughing could be a means of balancing the need for any new electricity infrastructure with the importance of minimising not only financial costs, but also unnecessary environmental impact and community opposition.”

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Climate

Turbine near Rhosygilwen Mansion would cause ‘significant harm’

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A £1M scheme for a ’20-storey-high’ wind turbine at a Pembrokeshire mansion is recommended to be turned down later this week despite being twice backed by the council’s planning committee.

Mr and Mrs Glen Peters of Western Solar Ltd are seeking permission for a single turbine on land near the Grade II-listed Rhosygilwen Mansion, which includes an arts and functions building known as Neuaddydderwen.

Planners have repeatedly been recommended to refuse the scheme by officers, but backed it at both their March and April committee meetings.

The March backing meant the application returned to the April meeting for ratification after a ‘cooling off’ period; the application having been deferred at the January meeting pending a site visit.

It was initially recommended for refusal in January for several reasons, including potential harm to the setting of the Grade-II-listed house and grounds, and fears of threats to the safe operation of West Wales Airport at Aberporth in neighbouring Ceredigion, some 9.5 kilometres away.

The last concern was later withdrawn.

Officers have said the scheme “would not protect or enhance the setting [of Rhosygilwen] but rather would result in significant harm to this interest of acknowledged importance”.

They have also warned any backing of the scheme against policy recommendations could set a precedent for similar developments.

Applicant Glen Peters has previously said the application for a turbine would ensure the long-term viability of Rhosygilwen, acquired some 30 years previously as a fire-damaged house that was about to be pulled down.

He has said that, despite 200-year-old Rhosygilwen using power from its solar farm, the first of its kind in Wales, it has been hit with “huge increases in importing energy from the grid” during the winter months.

Speaking at the April planning meeting, Mr Peters said the scheme as a whole was expected to cost “the best part of £1m”.

Objector Paul Robertson-Marriott has said the “20-storey” turbine would have “a detrimental impact” on surrounding properties.

He said the majority of the power from the existing solar farm was fed into the grid rather than powering the house, believing the turbine proposal would “ride roughshod over the status of the listed building for economic benefit”.

He asked members: “Why should the local community and environment be subject to an additional economic generator that causes environmental depredation?”

As the scheme would be a departure from the development plan it means it will have to be decided by full council, meeting on May 9, where it is recommended that council does not endorse the resolution of the planning committee, and refuses the application based on “significant harm” to the setting of Rhosygilwen.

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