DONALD TRUMP’S return to the US presidency casts an uncertain shadow over the UK, potentially leading to economic shocks that could burden British households with higher costs, lower growth, and less job security. His policy unpredictability and “America First” doctrine spell challenges for UK businesses, while his strong-willed approach to trade and foreign policy could drive a wedge between the two countries.

TRADE TENSIONS COULD COST UK EXPORTERS

Trump’s protectionist stance has reignited concerns about tariffs, which could cut deep into the UK economy. The US is Britain’s largest export market, receiving around 25% of all UK-manufactured exports. Proposed tariffs of up to 10% on imports to the US would affect major British exporters such as Rolls Royce and BAE Systems, impacting an estimated £56 billion in trade. If enacted, such tariffs could push costs higher, threatening thousands of jobs in sectors dependent on American demand.

A STRAINED UK-US RELATIONSHIP

While Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Foreign Secretary David Lammy have made diplomatic overtures to Trump, attending dinners and working closely with Trump’s allies, challenges in the relationship remain evident. Starmer’s reserved style contrasts with Trump’s brash manner, raising questions about how compatible their leadership styles are. This uncertainty, highlighted by one diplomat’s remark that Trump “doesn’t give a stuff” about UK relations, suggests a bumpy road ahead.

Diplomats have tirelessly built relationships with Trump’s inner circle, including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Trump’s likely national security adviser, Elbridge Colby. However, Trump’s mercurial nature, marked by unpredictable social media outbursts and contentious negotiations, may test these connections. As Lammy put it, relations with Trump are likely to be “bumpy, noisy, and transactional.”

ECONOMIC FALLOUT AND SLOWER GROWTH

The potential for UK economic slowdown under Trump’s policies is profound. Economists from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) predict UK growth will be halved if Trump enforces his proposed tariffs. Without tariffs, the UK could expect moderate growth of around 1.2% next year; however, this figure could drop as low as 0.4% should the trade restrictions come into force. Coupled with rising inflation, this could lead to diminished purchasing power for households already grappling with a cost-of-living crisis.

CURRENCY VOLATILITY AND JOB THREATS

Trump’s victory has already weakened the pound, with the GBP/USD exchange rate falling sharply as results came in. Investors are wary of increased tariffs and Trump’s isolationist policies, both of which could stoke currency volatility and strain the UK economy. A weakened pound also drives up the cost of imports, which affects consumers directly through higher prices for everyday goods.

The potential loss of thousands of jobs in sectors heavily reliant on US trade adds to the bleak outlook. Automotive manufacturing, for instance, could be heavily impacted by Trump’s threat of a 100% tariff on imported cars. Companies like Jaguar Land Rover, whose Land Rover Defender was one of the UK’s top exports to the US, may face cutbacks if tariffs make exports uncompetitive.

UNCERTAIN INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT

The UK’s global-facing stock market may also suffer. Companies in the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250, which derive significant profits from international operations, could experience volatility as Trump’s policies introduce uncertainty into transatlantic trade. Such uncertainty could lead investors to shy away from the UK market, diminishing capital inflows and further affecting economic growth.

SHIFTS IN GLOBAL PRIORITIES

Beyond economic pressures, Trump’s foreign policy outlook could exacerbate the UK’s security challenges. Trump’s “America First” rhetoric and emphasis on Asia over Europe may leave European allies, including the UK, less confident about US support for initiatives like defending Ukraine. While the UK has publicly aligned with Trump’s view that Europe should shoulder more of its defense costs, there are fears that a US pivot to Asia could weaken the cohesion of NATO and reduce military backing for Europe.

Lammy has attempted to foster an understanding of Trump’s instincts, acknowledging his focus on American interests and recognition of Asia’s growing influence. However, as the UK looks toward cooperation on issues like Ukraine, this alignment may prove insufficient in securing the support needed to address shared security concerns.

BRITISH FAMILIES TO SHOULDER THE COST

For British families, the impact of a Trump presidency could hit close to home. With increased tariffs potentially driving up inflation by 3-4%, the Bank of England may feel compelled to raise interest rates by as much as 2-3% in response. For households already feeling the pinch from rising prices, this could lead to higher mortgage costs, increased borrowing rates, and a tougher job market, further squeezing living standards.

Though the UK government has prepared for Trump’s return, the effectiveness of these plans remains to be seen. As Britain braces for another unpredictable chapter with Trump at the helm, citizens may face a “bumpy, noisy, and transactional” relationship that could reshape the economy, impacting everything from job security to the prices at the supermarket.

FREIGHT carrier and ferry operator Stena Line, which runs services between Fishguard and Rosslare, has announced plans to cut up to 80 staff members following an internal review.

Uncertainty looms over whether any of these redundancies will impact staff operating our local ferry services.

Stena CEO Paul Grant shared the news in an email to employees on Monday, citing a need to “future proof the company.” He explained that an internal assessment revealed the company’s current organisational structure as “too big and expensive” compared to its revenue.

The decision comes amid rising costs and increased competition in the freight and travel sectors.

According to Mr. Grant, “Cost pressure due to higher inflation has led to our customers having less money to spend, and with the introduction of the European Emission Trading Scheme (ETS), increasing our prices, we see a decline in volumes for both travel and freight.” Additionally, disappointing sales during the summer season and unmet market growth expectations for 2024 contributed to the restructuring.

The program, designed to strengthen Stena’s long-term business viability, includes a reduction of costs, prioritization of investments, and staff cuts that will primarily impact support functions and consultants. The workforce will be reduced by 80 positions by early 2025, along with 30 consultants also set to leave the company. Discussions with unions and work councils are expected to last several months, with all affected staff to be informed of their status by January 31, 2025.

In response to this announcement, the Transport Salaried Staffs’ Association (TSSA) has demanded a meeting with Stena Line to clarify the impact of these cuts, particularly on their members.

TSSA General Secretary Maryam Eslamdoust expressed disappointment over the handling of the announcement, stating: “Our members are shocked by this news and outraged that Stena has chosen to sidestep established industrial relations processes. Stena must meet with us urgently to clarify who is at risk and address the potential impacts on our members.”

The layoffs are part of a broader restructuring effort aimed at securing Stena Line’s future amid sustainability challenges. CEO Niclas Mårtensson acknowledged the difficult decision, stating, “Stena Line has been a successful company over the past few years; however, we need to ensure a lower cost base to be able to future proof the company. With 40 vessels in Europe and the Mediterranean, we have significant sustainability challenges ahead of us, and this program will enable us to make necessary investments for the future.”

The TSSA’s letter to Stena reiterates the union’s commitment to supporting affected employees and calls for an immediate discussion to clarify the situation, especially for staff at Fishguard who may be impacted.

THE WELSH GOVERNMENT’S Cabinet Secretary for Economy, Energy, and Planning has granted approval for the Twyn Hywel Energy Park, a pioneering project by renewable energy developer Bute Energy. Set across the Caerphilly and Rhondda Cynon Taf County Boroughs, this development will feature 14 wind turbines generating 92.4 MW of clean energy—enough to power approximately 81,000 households annually.

Twyn Hywel Energy Park is part of Bute Energy’s ambitious network of energy parks across Wales, representing a £3 billion investment with the potential to generate over 2 gigawatts of renewable power. This clean energy output could supply 2.25 million homes and offset around 5.7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions—equivalent to removing all cars from Caerphilly County Borough’s roads each year.

This project will mark Wales’s first onshore wind construction since 2020, symbolizing a renewed commitment to sustainable energy.

Stuart George, Managing Director of Bute Energy, said: “Onshore wind represents the cheapest, cleanest, and quickest route to generating clean energy and ending our reliance on fossil fuels. Wales is primed to lead and benefit from the shift to renewable energy through significant direct investment, new jobs, and investment in local communities. Bute Energy is dedicated to creating a lasting legacy of skills, opportunities, and investment for Wales. Our Community Benefit Fund, skills initiatives, and collaborative approach with communities will help keep as much of the investment in Wales as possible.”

Bute Energy has established a Community Benefit Fund worth over £30 million across the 40-year lifespan of its projects. Designed with input from local communities, the fund aims to support local groups, charities, and services in sustaining and growing their work to meet community needs. Additionally, the company has embedded a 2% Social Value Standard into every contract, ensuring investments flow into local economies during the energy park’s construction and beyond.

The project is anticipated to create hundreds of jobs in Wales, generating millions in local economic benefits. Construction is scheduled to commence in 2025, with completion targeted for 2027. Bute Energy plans to maintain ongoing consultation with local authorities and communities throughout the development process.