PEMBROKESHIRE COUNTY COUNCIL’S Cabinet has endorsed a Regional Transport Strategy that relies on Welsh Government funding of £125m over the next five years. However, the plan also relies on the Council spending other money allocated to it by the Welsh Government to pay for the delivery of Welsh Government as well as local priorities.

Based on comparisons between similar projects, the low end of the cost of delivering the Pembrokeshire-only projects will be at least £66m. That suggests that not only will all the projects not come to fruition in the plan period but also indicates that the Welsh Government funding allocation to them underestimates the cost of delivering the majority, if not all, of the projects.

If the strategy’s budget is fantasy, the prospects of delivering all of it are even more fanciful. The projects in the strategy read like a Guardian reader’s wishlist instead of something grounded in local needs.

ACTIVE TRAVEL SCHEMES DOMINATE

The thirty-plus projects located solely in Pembrokeshire include fifteen schemes solely dedicated to active travel or which incorporate active travel as part of them. In context, and based on the cost of delivering similar schemes, the low-end estimate for “active travel” schemes alone is around £22m.

“Active Travel” under the Welsh Government’s Active Travel Act refers to efforts to reduce the use of cars for everyday journeys, such as commuting and education. Active travel schemes create infrastructure which supports walking, cycling, and wheeling (e.g., wheelchairs, mobility scooters).

Those schemes work well in urban areas. However, in rural areas with dispersed working populations, such as Pembrokeshire, their impact is less beneficial. The now-former Welsh Government minister Lee Waters got an earful from Plaid Cymru and fringe environmental groups (mostly funded by the Welsh Government) when he dared say that cars would continue to be the primary mode of transportation in rural Wales. If an MS from Dolgellau can use an e-scooter to get the mile and a half from their taxpayer-funded flat in Cardiff to the Senedd, there’s evidently no reason why commuters between Fishguard and Haverfordwest can’t do the same.

The active travel schemes planned for Pembrokeshire include a Multi-User Route from Narberth to Haverfordwest, an active travel route from Pembroke Dock to Pennar, one from Pembroke to Angle, six schemes in and around Tenby, and an expansion of the County Council’s e-bike scheme.

BIG TICKET SPENDING

The big spending item is the relocation of the A487 at Newgale. That project has been on the cards for fourteen years, if not longer. It forms part of the Welsh Government’s regional transport strategy as a permanent solution to the challenge of coastal erosion and the increased risks of tidal and pluvial flooding, standing against less certain and temporary interventions to hold the existing line. As it is part of the Regional Strategy, it will be predominantly funded by the Welsh Government through project-specific grants, in the same way as the preliminary investigations and public engagement.

The plan will funnel transport funding towards supporting the Celtic Sea Freeport. Its backers hope the Freeport’s economic impact will be positive and spread across the Freeport area. However, the existing transport infrastructure for it is a bad joke. Addressing its shortcomings is a major component of the Regional Transport Strategy.

Setting aside projects scheduled for Neath Port Talbot, millions of pounds are projected to be spent on hydrogen fuel infrastructure and green/blue energy grid improvements. However, one project guaranteed to cause controversy seeks to increase road capacity and flow through Pembroke to support increased traffic from the Celtic Freeport development in the Angle Peninsula. Bearing in mind obvious geographical and logistical constraints and its need to cross conservation areas and sensitive landscapes within the National Park, any road expansion (there’s also an active travel route planned) will likely cause uproar and cost tens of millions to deliver. That is, however, a long-term project.

MORE TRANSPORT HUBS

In the medium term, the Regional Strategy looks at a multi-million-pound project to improve roads between Haverfordwest and Milford Haven. That scheme looks to address congestion between the county town and the centre of Freeport operations in Pembrokeshire. Again, geographical and logistical issues suggest that the project will find it difficult to do much more than put lipstick on a pig. If, however, the scheme manages to resolve the congestion hotspots at Cartlett, Salutation Square (subject to a separate congestion-easing plan), Freemen’s Way, and Johnston as far as the Sunnycroft Roundabout, it will doubtless be welcomed by commuters.

And, if you thought one transport hub was a bad idea, there’s more to come – from the Milford Haven transport interchange to one planned for Pembroke Dock, improved access to Fishguard’s ferry port, and a host of other projects that will connect Pembrokeshire’s public transport network, as the plan puts it poetically “ensuring better multimodal connectivity”.

Given the almost certain budget problems which these projects will encounter and, therefore, cause the County Council when it comes to setting its budgets, ensuring Pembrokeshire gets what it needs to improve the local economy instead of what the Welsh Government thinks it ought to have will be a major source of tension and contention.

If half of the plan is delivered on time, on budget, and within the Welsh Government’s funding envelope, its effects will be limited – as we will all have pigs to fly around on.