News
Reform UK surges to seven-point lead ahead of Senedd election
Reform UK has opened up a seven-point lead over Labour in the latest polling for the Wales-wide Senedd election, with Plaid Cymru trailing by a single point, according to an exclusive Beaufort Research survey for Nation.Cymru.
The poll places Reform on 30%—up five points since the previous Beaufort poll in June—while Labour sits on 23%, down four points. Plaid Cymru stands at 22% (+1), the Conservatives at 11% (-2), the Green Party at 9% (+3), the Liberal Democrats at 4% (no change), and other parties at 1% (-1).
A seat projection using software developed for Cavendish Consulting suggests Reform would emerge as the largest party with 37 seats, followed by Plaid Cymru with 25, Labour with 24, the Conservatives with 7, the Green Party with 2, and the Liberal Democrats with 1. If the projection proves accurate, First Minister Eluned Morgan would not be re-elected to the Senedd.
Despite Reform’s lead, the party would not command enough seats to form a government outright. Analysts suggest the most likely outcome would be a partnership or agreement between Plaid Cymru and Labour. Constituency-level projections are detailed at the end of this article.
Regional and demographic variations
Support for parties varies significantly across Wales, with differences according to region, gender, age, social grade, and Welsh language ability.
For polling purposes, Wales was divided into three regions: North and Mid Wales; South West Wales and the Valleys; and Cardiff and South East Wales.
- North and Mid Wales: Reform 27%, Plaid Cymru 25%, Labour 16%, Conservative 13%, Green 13%, Liberal Democrat 5%, other parties 1%.
- South West Wales and Valleys: Reform 28%, Labour 26%, Plaid Cymru 25%, Conservative 10%, Green 7%, Lib Dem 3%, other parties 1%.
- Cardiff and South East Wales: Reform 37%, Labour 26%, Plaid Cymru 16%, Conservative 9%, Green 8%, other parties 0%.
Gender Differences
Men were slightly more likely to back Reform than women, with 32% of men supporting the party compared to 29% of women. Among women, the Green Party enjoyed stronger support at 12%.
Age breakdown
Support also varied across age groups. Among 16 to 34-year-olds, Labour led on 29%, Plaid Cymru on 26%, and Reform on 17%. In the 35–54 bracket, Reform led with 33%, while Labour and Plaid Cymru each had 21%. For voters aged 55 and over, Reform was on 34%, Labour 22%, and Plaid Cymru 22%.
Social grade influence
Social grade strongly influenced voting patterns. Among more affluent ABC1 voters, Labour and Plaid Cymru each polled 26%, with Reform on 22%. In contrast, among C2DE voters, Reform commanded 39%, far ahead of Labour on 20% and Plaid Cymru on 18%.
Welsh language impact
Welsh speakers overwhelmingly favoured Plaid Cymru at 45%, with Reform on just 19% and Labour 16%. Among non-Welsh speakers, Reform led on 33%, Labour on 25%, and Plaid Cymru on 16%.
Comparisons with other polls
The Beaufort Research figures contrast with last month’s YouGov poll for ITV Wales, which showed Plaid Cymru narrowly leading on 30%, followed by Reform on 29%, Labour 14%, and the Conservatives 11%.
Seat Projections
- Afan, Ogwr, Rhondda: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
- Bangor, Conwy, Mon: Plaid Cymru 2, Reform 2, Conservative 1, Labour 1
- Blaenau Gwent, Caerffili, Rhymni: Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 2, Reform 2
- Brycheiniog, Tawe, Nedd: Reform 3, Labour 1, Plaid Cymru 1, Lib Dem 1
- Caerdydd Ffynon Taf: Labour 2, Reform 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Green 1
- Caerdydd Penarth: Labour 2, Reform 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Green 1
- Casnewydd Islwyn: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
- Ceredigion, Penfro: Plaid Cymru 3, Reform 2, Conservative 1
- Clwyd: Reform 2, Conservative 2, Labour 1, Plaid Cymru 1
- Fflint, Wrecsam: Reform 2, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Conservative 1
- Gwynedd, Maldwyn: Plaid Cymru 4, Reform 2
- Gwyr, Abertawe: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
- Pen-y-bont, Bro Morgannwg: Reform 2, Labour 2, Conservative 1, Plaid Cymru 1
- Pontypridd, Cynon, Merthyr: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
- Sir Fynwy, Torfaen: Reform 2, Labour 2, Conservative 1, Plaid Cymru 1
- Sir Gaerfyrddin: Plaid Cymru 3, Reform 2, Labour 1
Polling Methodology
The headline figures are based on responses from 533 adults across Wales, interviewed online between 22 September and 12 October. Only those aged 16 and over who expressed a party preference and rated their certainty to vote in a Senedd election as 9 or 10 out of 10 were included. Respondents who were undecided, unlikely to vote, or less than fully certain were excluded.
News
Fire crews tackle 200-tonne commercial waste blaze in Port Talbot
RESIDENTS have been told to keep windows and doors closed as fire crews tackle a major blaze involving around 200 tonnes of commercial waste in Port Talbot.
Mid and West Wales Fire and Rescue Service said crews from Port Talbot, Neath, Morriston, Ammanford, Tumble, Carmarthen, Pontarddulais and Glynneath were called to the incident at Dock Road.
Firefighters from South Wales Fire and Rescue Service are also supporting the operation.
The incident remains ongoing, and members of the public have been urged to avoid the area to allow emergency services access.

A spokesperson for Mid and West Wales Fire and Rescue Service said local residents should keep windows and doors closed if there is thick smoke nearby.
The service also urged people only to call 999 if lives or property are in immediate danger, so control room operators can manage resources effectively.
Photo: Guerrilla Kitchen.
News
Most Welsh voters unclear on new Senedd voting system, study finds
TWO-THIRDS of people in Wales do not properly understand major changes to the Senedd voting system ahead of next week’s election, new research has found.
Initial findings from the Welsh Election Study 2026 show widespread confusion about the expansion of the Senedd, the creation of new constituencies and the way votes will be counted when Wales goes to the polls on Thursday (May 7).
The study, led by researchers from Aberystwyth University and Swansea University, is based on responses from 10,001 adults aged 16 and over in Wales who were surveyed by Ipsos UK between February 26 and April 7.

From this election, the Senedd will increase from 60 to 96 Members. Wales will be divided into 16 larger constituencies, each electing six Members. Voters will have one vote, choosing a political party or an independent candidate, rather than voting separately for a constituency candidate and a regional list as in previous elections.
But the survey found that public understanding of the new system remains low.
Researchers said 88% of respondents either gave an incorrect answer or did not know how the new closed list electoral system will work. Just under 12% were able to answer correctly.
The findings come despite a majority of respondents saying they are interested in politics. Around 59% said they were interested in the forthcoming Senedd election, but the study found that many voters remain unclear about both the voting system and the division of powers between Cardiff Bay and Westminster.
Around half of respondents were either wrong or did not know that the Senedd has responsibility for the NHS, agriculture and economic development in Wales. Only 40% knew that policing remains a UK Government responsibility.
The survey also revealed a significant generational knowledge gap. Only 28% of respondents aged 16 to 25 knew that the Welsh Government is responsible for the NHS, compared with 62.7% of those aged 65 and over.
The research also points to a wider crisis of trust. More than two-thirds of respondents reported limited or no trust in the UK Government. Trust in the Welsh Government was slightly higher, but almost half of respondents still said they mistrusted it.
Many people also felt powerless to influence political decisions. More than 60% said they had no influence over decisions made by the UK Government, compared with 52% for decisions affecting Wales and just over 40% at local level.
When respondents were asked to describe the forthcoming Senedd election in one word, 83% expressed negative emotions, compared with 17% who gave positive responses. The most common themes were disappointment, frustration and worry.

Dr Anwen Elias, of Aberystwyth University, who authored the analysis and co-leads the study, said: “These findings provide an important insight into how people in Wales understand and engage with politics at a crucial moment ahead of the Senedd election.
“They highlight gaps in awareness of major electoral reforms and raise important questions about democratic participation, trust in government, and how well-informed people feel when making political decisions.
“Overall, these findings suggest a Welsh electorate that is generally interested in politics, including the upcoming Senedd election. However, understanding of how democracy works in Wales is mixed, and knowledge of the electoral reforms in place for the next election is limited.”
Dr Elias said knowledge of the reforms was “generally very low”, with slightly more awareness of the number of Members to be elected and the fact that each voter will cast one vote.
She added: “There is relatively less knowledge of the number of MSs representing each constituency, and even less of the operation of the closed list system of proportional representation, with barely over one in ten understanding it.”
Dr Bettina Petersohn, of Swansea University, said the findings showed that people in Wales had generally positive attitudes towards key democratic processes and were interested in the election.
She said: “The responses show that people have generally positive attitudes towards key democratic processes in Wales, are interested in the upcoming election, with a majority thinking that it makes a difference who will win the Senedd election.
“At the same time, the level of knowledge about the new electoral system was low at the start of the electoral campaign. Overall, people also expressed the feeling of not having much influence over decisions made for the UK, but also for Wales or the local area.”
The findings are published in the briefing paper A Snapshot of Democracy and Society in Wales: Initial Findings from the Welsh Election Study, April 2026.
The Welsh Election Study 2026 is a four-year research project funded by the UKRI Economic and Social Research Council.
The project brings together Dr Anwen Elias, of Aberystwyth University, Professor Matt Wall, Dr Bettina Petersohn and Dr Mohsin Hussain, of Swansea University, working with the Wales Institute of Social and Economic Research and Data.
News
Rhun ap Iorwerth greeted by supporters at Carmarthen campaign stop
PLAID LEADER BRINGS MESSAGE OF ‘NEW LEADERSHIP’ TO TOWN SQUARE
PLAIDCYMRU leader Rhun ap Iorwerth was welcomed by supporters in Carmarthen this afternoon as the party continued its campaign ahead of the Senedd election.
The party leader addressed a gathering on Carmarthen town square, where supporters said his message of “new leadership” for Wales was met with loud applause.
The visit was highlighted on social media by former Carmarthen mayor Alun Lenny, who described the speech as “positive and exciting” and said Mr ap Iorwerth had been welcomed by a large crowd.
Writing in Welsh, Mr Lenny said: “Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth was welcomed by a large crowd of supporters in Carmarthen today. His positive and exciting message for new leadership in Wales was greeted by loud applause.”
The Carmarthen appearance comes as Plaid Cymru seeks to build momentum in the final stages of the Senedd campaign.
Mr ap Iorwerth has repeatedly argued that Wales needs a change of government after more than two decades of Labour-led administrations in Cardiff Bay.
Plaid Cymru is hoping to position itself as the main alternative to Labour, while also facing pressure from the Conservatives, Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats in what is expected to be a closely watched election.
Carmarthen is likely to be an important battleground in the wider contest, with parties placing increasing emphasis on west Wales as polling day approaches.
The Senedd election takes place on Thursday, May 7.
Cover image:
Campaign stop: Rhun ap Iorwerth addresses supporters in Carmarthen town square this afternoon (Pic: Alun Lenny/Facebook).
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