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Reform UK surges to seven-point lead ahead of Senedd election

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Reform UK has opened up a seven-point lead over Labour in the latest polling for the Wales-wide Senedd election, with Plaid Cymru trailing by a single point, according to an exclusive Beaufort Research survey for Nation.Cymru.

The poll places Reform on 30%—up five points since the previous Beaufort poll in June—while Labour sits on 23%, down four points. Plaid Cymru stands at 22% (+1), the Conservatives at 11% (-2), the Green Party at 9% (+3), the Liberal Democrats at 4% (no change), and other parties at 1% (-1).

A seat projection using software developed for Cavendish Consulting suggests Reform would emerge as the largest party with 37 seats, followed by Plaid Cymru with 25, Labour with 24, the Conservatives with 7, the Green Party with 2, and the Liberal Democrats with 1. If the projection proves accurate, First Minister Eluned Morgan would not be re-elected to the Senedd.

Despite Reform’s lead, the party would not command enough seats to form a government outright. Analysts suggest the most likely outcome would be a partnership or agreement between Plaid Cymru and Labour. Constituency-level projections are detailed at the end of this article.

Regional and demographic variations

Support for parties varies significantly across Wales, with differences according to region, gender, age, social grade, and Welsh language ability.

For polling purposes, Wales was divided into three regions: North and Mid Wales; South West Wales and the Valleys; and Cardiff and South East Wales.

  • North and Mid Wales: Reform 27%, Plaid Cymru 25%, Labour 16%, Conservative 13%, Green 13%, Liberal Democrat 5%, other parties 1%.
  • South West Wales and Valleys: Reform 28%, Labour 26%, Plaid Cymru 25%, Conservative 10%, Green 7%, Lib Dem 3%, other parties 1%.
  • Cardiff and South East Wales: Reform 37%, Labour 26%, Plaid Cymru 16%, Conservative 9%, Green 8%, other parties 0%.

Gender Differences
Men were slightly more likely to back Reform than women, with 32% of men supporting the party compared to 29% of women. Among women, the Green Party enjoyed stronger support at 12%.

Age breakdown
Support also varied across age groups. Among 16 to 34-year-olds, Labour led on 29%, Plaid Cymru on 26%, and Reform on 17%. In the 35–54 bracket, Reform led with 33%, while Labour and Plaid Cymru each had 21%. For voters aged 55 and over, Reform was on 34%, Labour 22%, and Plaid Cymru 22%.

Social grade influence
Social grade strongly influenced voting patterns. Among more affluent ABC1 voters, Labour and Plaid Cymru each polled 26%, with Reform on 22%. In contrast, among C2DE voters, Reform commanded 39%, far ahead of Labour on 20% and Plaid Cymru on 18%.

Welsh language impact
Welsh speakers overwhelmingly favoured Plaid Cymru at 45%, with Reform on just 19% and Labour 16%. Among non-Welsh speakers, Reform led on 33%, Labour on 25%, and Plaid Cymru on 16%.

Comparisons with other polls
The Beaufort Research figures contrast with last month’s YouGov poll for ITV Wales, which showed Plaid Cymru narrowly leading on 30%, followed by Reform on 29%, Labour 14%, and the Conservatives 11%.

Seat Projections

  • Afan, Ogwr, Rhondda: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
  • Bangor, Conwy, Mon: Plaid Cymru 2, Reform 2, Conservative 1, Labour 1
  • Blaenau Gwent, Caerffili, Rhymni: Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 2, Reform 2
  • Brycheiniog, Tawe, Nedd: Reform 3, Labour 1, Plaid Cymru 1, Lib Dem 1
  • Caerdydd Ffynon Taf: Labour 2, Reform 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Green 1
  • Caerdydd Penarth: Labour 2, Reform 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Green 1
  • Casnewydd Islwyn: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
  • Ceredigion, Penfro: Plaid Cymru 3, Reform 2, Conservative 1
  • Clwyd: Reform 2, Conservative 2, Labour 1, Plaid Cymru 1
  • Fflint, Wrecsam: Reform 2, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Conservative 1
  • Gwynedd, Maldwyn: Plaid Cymru 4, Reform 2
  • Gwyr, Abertawe: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
  • Pen-y-bont, Bro Morgannwg: Reform 2, Labour 2, Conservative 1, Plaid Cymru 1
  • Pontypridd, Cynon, Merthyr: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
  • Sir Fynwy, Torfaen: Reform 2, Labour 2, Conservative 1, Plaid Cymru 1
  • Sir Gaerfyrddin: Plaid Cymru 3, Reform 2, Labour 1


Polling Methodology
The headline figures are based on responses from 533 adults across Wales, interviewed online between 22 September and 12 October. Only those aged 16 and over who expressed a party preference and rated their certainty to vote in a Senedd election as 9 or 10 out of 10 were included. Respondents who were undecided, unlikely to vote, or less than fully certain were excluded.

 

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Welsh Labour accuses Plaid Cymru of ‘reviews over delivery’ on housing

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Labour says urgent action is needed as Plaid Cymru outlines plans for housing and town centre reform

WELSH LABOUR has accused the Plaid Cymru-led Welsh Government of relying too heavily on reviews and task forces rather than taking immediate action to tackle housing pressures and struggling high streets across Wales.

The criticism came after comments from Welsh Labour spokesperson for Housing and Communities, Jayne Bryant MS, who said Plaid Cymru had failed to match ambition with delivery.

In a statement issued on Tuesday (June 9), Ms Bryant said Labour supported efforts to improve access to housing and revitalise town centres, but argued that progress was being slowed by further assessments rather than concrete policies.

She said: “We all want to see better access to housing and thriving high streets across Wales. But yet again today, we hear of reviews and task forces from Plaid Cymru, but no immediate actions.

“The Welsh Labour Government delivered almost 20,000 homes in five years, protected Help to Buy Wales when it was scrapped in England, and improved renters’ rights. When will we see tangible action from Plaid Cymru?”

She added: “This is now a running theme from this Plaid Cymru government – discussion over delivery, reviews over rollout.”

The comments follow recent announcements by the Plaid Cymru-led administration indicating that housing access and regeneration will be subject to further assessment, with ministers signalling new reviews into how communities can be supported.

Housing remains one of the most politically sensitive issues in Wales, particularly in rural and coastal areas such as Pembrokeshire, where rising house prices, second homes and shortages of affordable housing continue to place pressure on local residents.

Town centres across Wales have also faced increasing challenges in recent years, with changing shopping habits, business closures and economic pressures prompting calls for renewed investment and reform.

Plaid Cymru has previously defended its approach, arguing that long-term structural problems require careful planning and evidence-based policy rather than short-term fixes.

The political row comes as housing affordability and local economic regeneration are expected to remain key battleground issues in Welsh politics over the coming months.

 

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Plaid MPs back motion against single-sex services code

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Welsh Government says it will apply the law following Supreme Court ruling on definition of sex

ALL FOUR Plaid Cymru MPs have backed a Westminster motion opposing the UK Government’s draft Code of Practice on services, public functions and associations.

The code follows the UK Supreme Court ruling that, for the purposes of the Equality Act 2010, the terms “sex”, “woman” and “man” refer to biological sex.

Early Day Motion 240, tabled at Westminster on June 1, states: “That the draft Code of Practice for Services, public functions and associations, a copy of which was laid before this House on 21 May, be disapproved.”

The four Plaid Cymru MPs listed as supporters are Liz Saville Roberts, Ben Lake, Llinos Medi and Ann Davies, who all signed the motion on June 3.

The issue has sparked criticism from Conservatives and Reform, who argue the guidance is needed to protect women-only spaces such as domestic abuse refuges, hospital wards and changing rooms.

Natasha Asghar MS, Welsh Conservative Member of the Senedd for Casnewydd Islwyn, said: “Women in Wales deserve clarity, dignity and safety. That means having the right to single-sex spaces enshrined and protected in law.

“Plaid Cymru’s MPs have just voted against the guidance designed to make that a reality.

“Plaid needs to explain why they are siding against women-only spaces. These are not legal technicalities. They are refuges for domestic abuse survivors, hospital wards and changing rooms. Real spaces where real women have a right to privacy and safety.”

Laura Anne Jones MS also raised the issue in the Senedd, accusing Plaid MPs of a “complete betrayal of women and girls.”

She challenged Deputy First Minister Sioned Williams over women’s refuges, girls’ changing rooms and other protected spaces.

Ms Jones said: “It is shocking that all four of your Plaid MPs in Westminster backed a motion this week opposing single-sex services for women.

“This is nothing short of a complete betrayal of women and girls right across Wales.”

Responding in the Senedd, Sioned Williams accused Reform of trying to turn a sensitive legal issue into a culture war.

She said the Welsh Government had a duty to implement the law and was already applying the Supreme Court judgment.

Ms Williams said: “As a Government, we have a duty to implement the law, and as I said, we are already applying the current law, including the judgment of the Supreme Court.

“We have made clear that we will fully abide by our legal obligations. If the code of practice is approved, we will apply it lawfully in line with our legal duties.”

She added that Westminster MPs of all parties had the right to scrutinise whether the guidance “gets the balance right.”

The Welsh Government has now issued a further statement to The Herald.

A Welsh Government spokesperson said: “We are committed to tackling discrimination and supporting women and girls, in a respectful and inclusive way that upholds the rights and dignity of all people.

“We respect the Supreme Court’s decision and are carefully reviewing the draft Code and its implications for Wales.

“We will lawfully and fully apply the EHRC Code of Practice in a way that continues to support inclusive services and work with public bodies and service providers to ensure the Code is implemented consistently, while maintaining dignity and respect for everyone.”

The issue remains politically sensitive, with opponents of Plaid’s position saying the draft code is necessary for clarity over single-sex spaces, while the Welsh Government says it will apply the law while maintaining dignity and respect for all groups.

 

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Community

Charity champion praised for years of quiet community work

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Pembrokeshire Care, Share & Give highlighted at Haverfordwest River Festival

A LONG-RUNNING Pembrokeshire charity that has quietly helped thousands of people over more than a decade was given recognition during the Haverfordwest River Festival.

County councillor Thomas Tudor met with charity founder Amanda Absalom-Lowe during Saturday’s (June 13) event at the Riverside Shopping Centre, praising the work of Pembrokeshire Care, Share & Give.

Cllr Tudor said it was “lovely to catch up” with Amanda, describing the organisation as a charity that does “amazing work in our community.”

Founded in 2009, Pembrokeshire Care, Share & Give has spent more than 13 years helping vulnerable people across Pembrokeshire and beyond by combining environmental recycling projects with practical community support.

The charity, based in Haverfordwest, helps redistribute surplus food, unwanted household items, clothing and essential goods to people struggling financially, homeless people, hospitals, charities and community groups.

Its work also includes providing “Rainbow Emergency Packs” for patients unexpectedly admitted to hospital, Christmas toy donations for children, emergency household support for families affected by fires or hardship, and aid for animal rescue centres.

The group says it has helped divert tonnes of waste from landfill through its recycling initiatives, encouraging residents to donate items rather than throw them away.

Amanda Absalom-Lowe, founder and chairperson of the charity, has received a string of honours for her work over the years, including the Radio Pembrokeshire Local Hero Green Award, the Haverfordwest Town Council Award of Merit, and the Pembrokeshire Association of Voluntary Services Volunteer of the Year Award.

In 2020, she was also recognised nationally after being named in the BBC Radio 4 Woman’s Hour Power List, celebrating inspirational women making a difference.

The charity has supported numerous causes including Patch Charity, Wales Air Ambulance, Paul Sartori Foundation, Blood Bikes, Greenacres Rescue, Bristol Children’s Hospital, children’s wards across Wales and homeless support initiatives.

Pembrokeshire Care, Share & Give operates from Kiln Road in Haverfordwest and relies heavily on donations and community support.

The charity’s message remains simple: “Recycle4Charity — don’t throw it away, donate it.”

Community support: Amanda Absalom-Lowe with County Councillor Thomas Tudor at the Haverfordwest River Festival (Pic: Supplied).

 

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