Reform UK has opened up a seven-point lead over Labour in the latest polling for the Wales-wide Senedd election, with Plaid Cymru trailing by a single point, according to an exclusive Beaufort Research survey for Nation.Cymru.

The poll places Reform on 30%—up five points since the previous Beaufort poll in June—while Labour sits on 23%, down four points. Plaid Cymru stands at 22% (+1), the Conservatives at 11% (-2), the Green Party at 9% (+3), the Liberal Democrats at 4% (no change), and other parties at 1% (-1).

A seat projection using software developed for Cavendish Consulting suggests Reform would emerge as the largest party with 37 seats, followed by Plaid Cymru with 25, Labour with 24, the Conservatives with 7, the Green Party with 2, and the Liberal Democrats with 1. If the projection proves accurate, First Minister Eluned Morgan would not be re-elected to the Senedd.

Despite Reform’s lead, the party would not command enough seats to form a government outright. Analysts suggest the most likely outcome would be a partnership or agreement between Plaid Cymru and Labour. Constituency-level projections are detailed at the end of this article.

Regional and demographic variations

Support for parties varies significantly across Wales, with differences according to region, gender, age, social grade, and Welsh language ability.

For polling purposes, Wales was divided into three regions: North and Mid Wales; South West Wales and the Valleys; and Cardiff and South East Wales.

• North and Mid Wales: Reform 27%, Plaid Cymru 25%, Labour 16%, Conservative 13%, Green 13%, Liberal Democrat 5%, other parties 1%.
• South West Wales and Valleys: Reform 28%, Labour 26%, Plaid Cymru 25%, Conservative 10%, Green 7%, Lib Dem 3%, other parties 1%.
• Cardiff and South East Wales: Reform 37%, Labour 26%, Plaid Cymru 16%, Conservative 9%, Green 8%, other parties 0%.

Gender Differences
Men were slightly more likely to back Reform than women, with 32% of men supporting the party compared to 29% of women. Among women, the Green Party enjoyed stronger support at 12%.

Age breakdown
Support also varied across age groups. Among 16 to 34-year-olds, Labour led on 29%, Plaid Cymru on 26%, and Reform on 17%. In the 35–54 bracket, Reform led with 33%, while Labour and Plaid Cymru each had 21%. For voters aged 55 and over, Reform was on 34%, Labour 22%, and Plaid Cymru 22%.

Social grade influence
Social grade strongly influenced voting patterns. Among more affluent ABC1 voters, Labour and Plaid Cymru each polled 26%, with Reform on 22%. In contrast, among C2DE voters, Reform commanded 39%, far ahead of Labour on 20% and Plaid Cymru on 18%.

Welsh language impact
Welsh speakers overwhelmingly favoured Plaid Cymru at 45%, with Reform on just 19% and Labour 16%. Among non-Welsh speakers, Reform led on 33%, Labour on 25%, and Plaid Cymru on 16%.

Comparisons with other polls
The Beaufort Research figures contrast with last month’s YouGov poll for ITV Wales, which showed Plaid Cymru narrowly leading on 30%, followed by Reform on 29%, Labour 14%, and the Conservatives 11%.

Seat Projections

• Afan, Ogwr, Rhondda: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
• Bangor, Conwy, Mon: Plaid Cymru 2, Reform 2, Conservative 1, Labour 1
• Blaenau Gwent, Caerffili, Rhymni: Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 2, Reform 2
• Brycheiniog, Tawe, Nedd: Reform 3, Labour 1, Plaid Cymru 1, Lib Dem 1
• Caerdydd Ffynon Taf: Labour 2, Reform 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Green 1
• Caerdydd Penarth: Labour 2, Reform 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Green 1
• Casnewydd Islwyn: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
• Ceredigion, Penfro: Plaid Cymru 3, Reform 2, Conservative 1
• Clwyd: Reform 2, Conservative 2, Labour 1, Plaid Cymru 1
• Fflint, Wrecsam: Reform 2, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Conservative 1
• Gwynedd, Maldwyn: Plaid Cymru 4, Reform 2
• Gwyr, Abertawe: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
• Pen-y-bont, Bro Morgannwg: Reform 2, Labour 2, Conservative 1, Plaid Cymru 1
• Pontypridd, Cynon, Merthyr: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
• Sir Fynwy, Torfaen: Reform 2, Labour 2, Conservative 1, Plaid Cymru 1
• Sir Gaerfyrddin: Plaid Cymru 3, Reform 2, Labour 1

Polling Methodology
The headline figures are based on responses from 533 adults across Wales, interviewed online between 22 September and 12 October. Only those aged 16 and over who expressed a party preference and rated their certainty to vote in a Senedd election as 9 or 10 out of 10 were included. Respondents who were undecided, unlikely to vote, or less than fully certain were excluded.