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Health

More patients, less funding: ‘inverse workload law’ hitting GPs in poorest areas

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GP PRACTICES serving the most deprived parts of Wales are under-resourced, overworked and facing collapse despite experiencing the greatest patient need, a committee heard.

Adrian Edwards, a professor at Cardiff University, gave evidence to a Senedd health committee inquiry on the future of general practice today (November 6).

Prof Edwards, who retired from practice in May, reminded Senedd members of the inverse care law – a term coined by Julian Tudor Hart, a GP in Glyncorrwg, Afan valley, in 1971.

It states the availability of good medical care tends to vary inversely with the need for it in the population served, so those who need health care most often have the least access.

Prof Edwards warned the UK is lagging behind other countries, with 45 GPs per 100,000 population compared with Australia (121), Canada (103) and New Zealand (74). He added that Wales was bottom of the UK table, according to latest statistics.

The academic, who was a GP partner for 25 years at a practice which handed back its NHS contract in 2020, said the number of partners has declined every year for a decade.

He told the committee the number of patients per full-time GP has increased in that time, with the total number of consultations also rising since 2019.

Prof Edwards said: “What we also have is an inverse workload law. In the affluent areas of Wales, the average number of patients per GP is 2,100 and in deprived areas it’s 2,400. And, by the way, those practices get 7% less income to provide those services.”

He explained doctors in the poorest areas have more patients to start with, who present about twice as often as those in more affluent areas.

Prof Edwards said the number of GPs has been largely flat since 1947, with resources being funnelled into hospitals “trying to do cure and not doing prevention”. He said the proportion of NHS spending on general practice in Wales has fallen from 11% to 7.6% over 20 years.

He cautioned that focusing on reform of the Carr-Hill formula used to allocate funding to GPs is a zero-sum game: “If you help someone, you’re taking away from someone else.”

Prof Edwards said 10% of GPs aged under 40 left the workforce in 2023, warning: “We’re haemorrhaging, we’ve got to do something about it immediately.”

Deep End Cymru, a network of GPs working to improve care in the most deprived areas, warned practices in less well off parts of Wales are “quietly drowning”.

Jonny Currie, a GP partner at Ringland surgery in Newport, said for every 10% increase in patients from the poorest areas – practice income falls by an average of 1%.

Jonny Currie, a GP partner at Ringland surgery in Newport
Jonny Currie, a GP partner at Ringland surgery in Newport

Dr Currie, policy lead at Deep End Cymru, told Senedd members: “We’re looking at tens of thousands less money coming into general practice,” despite greater demand.

Neil James, chair of Deep End Cymru and a GP partner in the Rhymney valley, added: “What we have seen is practices collapsing, going to the wall in many of these areas.”

Dr James, a GP for 22 years who is from Senghenydd, told the committee: “Inverse care has always affected us… having lived and worked in the valleys… you’ve seen societal disintegration and the effects that has on patient health has been profound.”

He pointed to a lack of training practices in poorer areas as a key problem, with GPs so busy at the coalface that they lack capacity. He said his practice faces ‘wall-to-wall deprivation”.

Prof Edwards raised statistics showing 10% of practices in the poorest areas closed or merged, compared with 2.8% elsewhere, over the past three years.

Deep End Cymru’s evidence laid bare the human cost of such inequalities.

The network of 91 GP practices warned women in the most deprived communities spend an average of 16.9 more years living in poor health. For men, the gap is 13.3 years.

Health

Fresh alarm over life expectancy in Wales as CMO warns of ‘prevention revolution’

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WALES is living sicker for longer, the Chief Medical Officer has warned, as new figures show a worrying drop in the number of years people can expect to live in good health – with women hit hardest.

The findings, published today in Dr Joanne Absolom’s first annual report since taking over from Sir Frank Atherton, have prompted immediate calls for the next Welsh Government to overhaul its approach to public health after the 2026 Senedd election.

Dr Absolom says Wales must now move decisively away from a system that largely treats illness towards one that prevents people becoming ill in the first place. Her report warns that healthy life expectancy is falling across the country and highlights widening inequalities between communities.

Responding to the findings, Darren Hughes, Director of the Welsh NHS Confederation, said the message could not be clearer.

“NHS leaders in Wales welcome the report’s call for a prevention-first approach,” he said. “We have to move from simply treating illness to actively promoting wellbeing, and that means a proper cross-government strategy that tackles inequality and gives people the support to take control of their own health.”

He added that every pound spent on proven public health programmes delivers an average return of £14 – evidence, he said, that prevention “makes moral and financial sense” at a time when NHS budgets are under extreme pressure.

“It is deeply concerning to see healthy life expectancy falling, particularly for women,” he said. “Investment in prevention is vital if we are to make our health and care services sustainable.”

While health boards, councils and community groups are already working on preventative programmes, the Welsh NHS Confederation says Wales needs far greater ambition – and the NHS must be given the tools and flexibility to scale up what works.

The Chief Medical Officer’s report also raises serious concerns about NHS workforce shortages and urges significant investment in digital technology to improve productivity and patient outcomes.

Mr Hughes said all political parties should “take heed” as they prepare their manifestos for next year’s Senedd election.

“Those seeking to form the next Welsh Government have a clear blueprint here. We cannot keep doing the same things and expect different results. Prevention, workforce and digital transformation have to be top priorities.”

The Welsh NHS Confederation — which represents all seven health boards, the three NHS trusts, HEIW and Digital Health and Care Wales — has already outlined its detailed priorities in its own election document, Building the health and wellbeing of the nation.

With the Senedd election just over a year away, today’s report adds fresh, authoritative evidence that Wales needs a radical shift in how it approaches health if it is to secure a healthier future for all.

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Health

Government orders clinical review amid sharp rise in mental health diagnoses

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4.4 million working-age people now claiming sickness or incapacity benefit, up by 1.2 million since 2019, many because of a mental health condition

A CLINICAL review into how mental health conditions are diagnosed across the UK is expected to begin this week, following concerns within government over rapidly rising sickness-benefit claims linked to conditions such as autism, ADHD and anxiety.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting has commissioned leading clinical experts to examine whether ordinary emotional distress is being “over-pathologised” and to assess why the number of people receiving sickness and incapacity benefits has grown to 4.4 million – an increase of 1.2 million since 2019.

According to reports in The Times, ministers are particularly alarmed by the surge in the number of 16- to 34-year-olds now out of work because of long-term mental health conditions.

Streeting said he recognised “from personal experience how devastating it can be for people who face poor mental health, have ADHD or autism and can’t get a diagnosis or the right support,” but added that he had also heard from clinicians who say diagnoses are “sharply rising”.

“We must look at this through a strictly clinical lens to get an evidence-based understanding of what we know, what we don’t know, and what these patterns tell us about our mental health system, autism and ADHD services,” he told the newspaper. “That’s the only way we can ensure everyone gets timely access to accurate diagnosis and effective support.”

The review is expected to be chaired by Prof Peter Fonagy, a clinical psychologist at University College London specialising in child mental health, with Sir Simon Wessely, former president of the Royal College of Psychiatrists, acting as vice-chair.

Prof Fonagy said the panel would “examine the evidence with care – from research, from people with lived experience and from clinicians working at the frontline of mental health, autism and ADHD services – to understand, in a grounded way, what is driving rising demand.”

The move comes as the UK Government faces mounting pressure over the rising welfare bill. Ministers earlier this year pulled back from proposed changes to disability benefits, including those affecting people with mental health conditions, after opposition from Labour backbenchers.

Speaking on Monday, the Prime Minister said a fresh round of welfare reform was needed.

Keir Starmer said: “We’ve got to transform it; we also have to confront the reality that our welfare state is trapping people, not just in poverty, but out of work.”

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Health

NHS Trust CEO ‘forced out’ after raising concerns — Welsh Govt denies wrongdoing

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A CONSERVATIVE MS has pressed the Welsh Government for answers after the sudden departure of the Velindre University NHS Trust’s chief executive, amid media reports that he raised concerns about alleged governance failures within NHS Wales Shared Services.

During Health Questions in the Senedd today, James Evans MS asked Health Secretary Jeremy Miles to explain why former CEO David Donegan left his post after just a year. Reports circulating in recent weeks suggest Mr Donegan had raised issues relating to governance, and in some accounts, possible criminality. These claims have not been substantiated publicly.

Velindre’s own 2024/25 annual report notes that the Trust “escalated concerns to Audit Wales and Welsh Government about the current governance of Shared Services, which hadn’t been reviewed since 2012.” No details of the concerns have been published.

Welsh Government response

Jeremy Miles MS confirmed in the chamber that correspondence relating to the issues does exist, but said it would not be appropriate to release sensitive material while internal processes are ongoing. He did not comment on the circumstances of Mr Donegan’s departure, citing employment confidentiality rules which are standard across the NHS and public sector.

A Welsh Government spokesperson has previously said that they expect all NHS bodies to follow “proper governance and HR procedures,” and that they “do not comment on individual employment matters.”

Velindre NHS Trust position

Velindre has not publicly stated that Mr Donegan was removed because of whistleblowing activity. The Trust has described his departure simply as a “change in leadership” and says it continues to engage with Audit Wales and the Welsh Government on governance matters.

Opposition criticism

After the exchange, James Evans MS — the Welsh Conservative Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Health — criticised the Health Secretary’s “lack of transparency”.

He said:

“I am extremely disappointed with the Health Secretary’s refusal to provide clarity on the circumstances surrounding Mr Donegan’s departure, or to release the correspondence relating to governance concerns within Shared Services. The public must be able to trust that millions of pounds of NHS funds are being managed properly.”

Mr Evans said he will write to the First Minister and Cabinet Secretary formally requesting the publication of correspondence “in the interests of full accountability.”

Context: What is NHS Shared Services?

The NHS Wales Shared Services Partnership (NWSSP) manages national procurement, payroll, recruitment, estates services and other core functions for health boards and trusts. It sits within Velindre University NHS Trust but operates independently of its operational healthcare work. Governance arrangements for NWSSP were originally set a decade ago and are subject to periodic review by Audit Wales.

There is no evidence at present of wrongdoing by the Welsh Government or NWSSP, beyond the concerns referenced in Velindre’s annual report.

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