Politics
14,000 job losses or 22% tax hike: The stark choice facing Welsh councils
WELSH councils have warned plugging a £436m budget gap for next year would require an average council tax increase of 22% or the loss of 14,000 jobs.
The Welsh Local Government Association (WLGA), which represents Wales’ 22 councils, said local authorities face £560m of pressures in 2026/27 – £100m more than expected.
Councils warned a 2% settlement in the Welsh Government’s “roll-over” draft budget would be “extremely damaging” for services and leave a £436m shortfall. Ministers have proposed an average 2.5% increase, with a funding floor to ensure no council receives less than 2.3%.
Bridging the £436m gap would require “unconscionably high” council tax rises of about 22% or the equivalent of around 14,000 job cuts across Wales, according to the WLGA.
The stark warning was echoed by Wales’ outgoing auditor general who said some councils are “very close” to having to issue a formal section 114 (effective bankruptcy) notice.
Adrian Crompton told the Senedd’s finance committee that councils – which are forecasting a £184m overspend in 2025/26 – are struggling to balance their books.
He said: “There are undoubtedly a few authorities that are very close to having to issue a section 114. Our assessment at the time of publishing our report was that none were about to, so they all had sufficient grip on their in-year position, so it wasn’t imminent.
“But some are right at the edge and they are all facing some very significant demand-led pressures in areas like children’s services, additional learning needs, temporary accommodation, which are very hard to predict.”
Mr Crompton, whose eight-year term as auditor general ends in July, added: “When you’re right at the edge of financial sustainability, if you get hit with a couple of significant cases that you have to deliver against, that could be sufficient to tip authorities over the edge.”
He warned their fragile financial state means councils would be the “most immediately and severely hit” sector if the Welsh Government’s budget fails to pass.
The financial pressures facing councils were detailed in the WLGA’s written evidence on the draft budget which showed how demand-led services are spiralling.
For example, the net cost of homelessness and temporary accommodation has exploded nearly eight-fold in a decade – from £12.8m in 2016/17 to £100.8m budgeted for this year.
The WLGA also warned of “unsustainable” pressures on school finances, with children’s care and education accounting for the majority of the forecasted £184m overspend.
One council said 33 primary and six secondary schools – nearly 70% of all schools in its area – were projecting a deficit budget.
Another reported its schools had “completely eroded a £15m surplus balance into a £2m deficit” and projected a £9m in-year overspend. Others warned of job losses, reserves running dry and class sizes rising above legal limits.
The financial strain is so severe councils are failing at their basic accounting duties, with many missing deadlines to file their accounts – a situation Mr Crompton described as a “slippery slope” for bodies “so close to financial sustainability”.
He argued spiralling demands are a symptom of a wider failure to shift spending to prevention. The auditor general said his recommendation for the Welsh Government to “embed prevention into the budget-setting process” had been rejected.
“It’s disappointing that it’s been rejected because it seems so fundamental,” said the auditor general, who added: “I don’t fully understand why.”
Councils’ evidence echoed this, stating while policy “increasingly references the importance of prevention, this is not often reflected” in funding. The WLGA said this has forced councils to cut non-statutory services such as leisure, transport and community facilities.
Mr Crompton’s warning about councils was part of a wider assessment that Wales’ entire model of public service delivery is “unsustainable on its current trajectory”.
Giving evidence on November 5, he told Senedd Members demand is “outstripping” funding and critical areas have been “hollowed out” after two decades of tight budgets.
Mr Crompton warned this “unsustainable” model was not unique to local government, with all seven health boards in Wales breaching their statutory duty to break even over three years. The finance committee heard the NHS is forecasting a £191m deficit this year.
Business
Cwm Deri Vineyard Martletwy holiday lets plans deferred
CALLS to convert a former vineyard restaurant in rural Pembrokeshire which had been recommended for refusal has been given a breathing space by planners.
In an application recommended for refusal at the December meeting of Pembrokeshire County Council’s planning committee, Barry Cadogan sought permission for a farm diversification and expansion of an existing holiday operation through the conversion of the redundant former Cwm Deri vineyard production base and restaurant to three holiday lets at Oaklea, Martletwy.
It was recommended for refusal on the grounds of the open countryside location being contrary to planning policy and there was no evidence submitted that the application would not increase foul flows and that nutrient neutrality in the Pembrokeshire Marine SAC would be achieved within this catchment.
An officer report said that, while the scheme was suggested as a form of farm diversification, no detail had been provided in the form of a business case.
Speaking at the meeting, agent Andrew Vaughan-Harries of Hayston Developments & Planning Ltd, after the committee had enjoyed a seasonal break for mince pies, said of the recommendation for refusal: “I’m a bit grumpy over this one; the client has done everything right, he has talked with the authority and it’s not in retrospect but has had a negative report from your officers.”

He said the former Cwm Deri vineyard had been a very successful business, with a shop and a restaurant catering for ‘100 covers’ before it closed two three years ago when the original owner relocated to Carmarthenshire.
He said Mr Cadogan then bought the site, farming over 36 acres and running a small campsite of 20 spaces, but didn’t wish to run a café or a wine shop; arguing the “beautiful kitchen” and facilities would easily convert to holiday let use.
He said a “common sense approach” showed a septic tank that could cope with a restaurant of “100 covers” could cope with three holiday lets, describing the nitrates issue as “a red herring”.
He suggested a deferral for further information to be provided by the applicant, adding: “This is a big, missed opportunity if we just kick this out today, there’s a building sitting there not creating any jobs.”
On the ‘open countryside’ argument, he said that while many viewed Martletwy as “a little bit in the sticks” there was already permission for the campsite, and the restaurant, and the Bluestone holiday park and the Wild Lakes water park were roughly a mile or so away.
He said converting the former restaurant would “be an asset to bring it over to tourism,” adding: “We don’t all want to stay in Tenby or the Ty Hotel in Milford Haven.”
While Cllr Nick Neuman felt the nutrients issue could be overcome, Cllr Michael Williams warned the application was “clearly outside policy,” recommending it be refused.
A counter-proposal, by Cllr Tony Wilcox, called for a site visit before any decision was made, the application returning to a future committee; members voting seven to three in favour of that.
Climate
Fishguard ‘battery box’ scheme near school refused
PLANNERS have refused a Pembrokeshire ‘battery box’ electricity storage unit near a Pembrokeshire town school, which has seen local objections including fears of a potential risk to nearby school children.
In an application recommended for approval at the December meeting of Pembrokeshire County Council’s planning committee, AMP Clean Energy sought permission for a micro energy storage project on land at Fishguard Leisure Centre Car Park, near Ysgol Bro Gwaun.
The application had previously been recommended for approval at the November meeting, but a decision was deferred pending a site visit.
The scheme is one of a number of similar applications by AMP, either registered or approved under delegated planning powers by officers.
The battery boxes import electricity from the local electricity network when demand for electricity is low or when there are high levels of renewable energy available, exporting it back during periods of high demand to help address grid reliability issues; each giving the potential to power 200 homes for four hours.
The Fishguard scheme, which has seen objections from the town council and members of the public, was before committee at the request of the local member, Cllr Pat Davies.
Fishguard and Goodwick Town Council objected to the proposal on grounds including visual impact, and the location being near the school.
An officer report said the scheme would be well screened by a Paladin Fence, with a need to be sited close to an existing substation.
Speaking at the December meeting, Ben Wallace of AMP Clean Energy conceded the boxes were “not things of beauty” before addressing previously raised concerns of any potential fire risk, saying that “in the incredibly unlikely” event of a fire, the system would contain it for up to two hours, giving “plenty of time” for it to be extinguished, an alarm immediately sounding, with the fire service raising no concerns.
“These are fundamentally safe, the technology is not new,” he said, comparing them to such batteries in phones and laptops.
One of the three objectors at the meeting raised concerns of the proximity to homes and the school, describing it as “an unsafe, unsustainable and unnecessary location,” with Cllr Jim Morgan of Fishguard Town Council, who had previously raised concerns of the “nightmare scenario” of a fire as children were leaving the school, also voicing similar issues.
Local county councillor Pat Davies, who had spoken at the previous meeting stressing she was not against the technology, just the location and the potential risk to pupils, said the siting would be “a visual intrusion,” with the school having many concerns about the scheme, adding it had been “brought forward without any dialogue of consultation with the school”.
Cllr Davies added: “It is unacceptable that a micro-storage unit should be proposed in this area; someone somewhere has got it wrong.”
Following a lengthy debate, committee chair Cllr Mark Carter proposed going against officers in refusing the scheme; members unanimously refusing the application.
Climate
Fears Sageston wind turbine scheme could affect bats
AN APPLICATION for a wind turbine nearly 250 foot high on the road to Tenby, recommended to be turned down due to a lack of information on how it could affect bats, has been put on hold.
In an application recommended for refusal at the December meeting of Pembrokeshire County Council’s planning committee, Constantine Wind Energy Ltd sought permission for a 76-metre-high wind turbine at Summerton Farm, Sageston.
Back in 2024, an application to replace a current 60.5m high turbine on the site with one up to 90 metres, or just under 300 foot, at the site was refused on the grounds its height and scale would have a detrimental impact on the visual amenity of the locality, with the additional clause of failing to comply with supplementary guidance.
A report for committee members on the latest application says the smaller turbine than previously proposed, representing a 16-metre increase in height from a previously granted turbine “would not be sufficient for it to become an overbearing feature in the landscape,” with no objections from either the Council Landscape Officer or Natural Resources Wales.
However, concerns were raised by the council ecologist that the applicant’s Preliminary Ecological Appraisal Report was incomplete.
“The Council Ecologist questions why the response received in relation to myotis bat records were not included within the initial PEA. As such, he considers that the PEA does not present enough information on the possible presence of bats within the application site area.
“Whilst there may be negligible foraging and commuting potential, there are records of foraging on grassland within two kilometres which have positive identification of myotis bat foraging, along with greater and lesser horseshoe bat foraging. He also notes that the application site is in close proximity to a wooded area.”
It was recommended for refusal on the grounds that appraisal report, and technical note, “do not adequately address the impact of the proposed wind turbine on bat activity in the area”.
At the committee meeting, members heard the scheme had been temporarily withdrawn to deal with issues raised, the application expected to return to a future meeting.
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