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Social mobility stalls in Wales

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Limited: Upward mobility in Wales

FOLLOWING the publication in late 2017 of its State of the Nation 2017: Social Mobility in Great Britain report, all four members of the UK Government’s Social Mobility Commission decided to stand down from their roles on the Commission, citing concerns about the lack of progress towards a ‘fairer Britain’.

The State of the Nation report warned that: ​”​​Britain is a deeply divided nation. Those divisions take many forms. Class, income, gender, race. In recent years, each has been the subject of much scrutiny. But one form of division that has received far less attention is that based on geography.​”​

Almost a quarter (23%) of all individuals in Wales live in poverty – ‘higher than in all regions in England and Great Britain, except London and the West Midlands’.

While the Joseph Rowntree Foundation’s UK Poverty 2017 report, explains that of the four UK nations, Wales consistently has the highest levels of poverty, and these levels are only slightly lower than London, and similar to those of England’s North East.

Looking at early years’ education, west Wales fares conspicuously well, with over 80% of children in receipt of school meals in Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion meeting and exceeding the targets set for their personal development.

However at Key Stages 2 & 3, while Carmarthenshire retains mid table status and Ceredigion tops the attainment table, Pembrokeshire slides down the table to 16th out of 22 Welsh local authorities.

A more worrying underlying trend across all Welsh local authority areas is that in no Welsh local authority area do more than half of pupils eligible for free school meals attain the equivalent to A* to C grades at GCSE level.

According to the Joseph Rowntree Foundation’s UK Poverty 2017 report, the attainment gap between children from richer and poorer backgrounds at the age of 11 years old has fallen in recent years from 26% to 14%. However, by the age of 16 years old (Key Stage 4) the attainment gap is 31%. A huge amount depends on how well a young person does at school in year 11. Whether they can go on to study A levels or even do an apprenticeship often depends on getting the golden ticket of 5 A*-C GCSEs.

Yet the latest 2016/17 GCSE Examination results show that a huge proportion of our young people are not getting to this level, with those who are eligible for Free School Meals (FSM) doing much worse.

The cohort sitting their GCSE exams last year were the first to take the new versions of GCSE Maths and English. The overall proportions of year 11’s achieving 5 A*-C GCSEs including maths and English/Welsh first language have dropped from 60.3% in 2015/16 to 54.6% in 2016/17. There is also a dramatic drop in students achieving any 5 GCSEs A*-C, from 84% to 67%.

Many more young people who are eligible for FSM are leaving school without the qualifications they need. The proportion of year 11’s that were eligible for FSM who achieved 5 A*-C GCSEs including maths and English/Welsh language dropped by 7 percentage points since 2015/16, and more worryingly have dropped by 30.3​% for any 5 A*-C GCSEs, compared to 5.8% and 15.4% for those who were not eligible.

The State of the Nation report explains that at Key Stage 4 the biggest attainment gaps are to be found in some of the least deprived areas of Wales. Monmouthshire has the lowest concentration of deprived areas in Wales but has an attainment gap for disadvantaged pupils of over 41%. But even if good educational outcomes are achieved, across west Wales the opportunities to earn more than the Living Wage are limited.

Over a quarter of people employed in Carmarthenshire earn below the Living Wage and the figures for Ceredigion (29%) and Pembrokeshire (32%) is even worse. While the unemployment rates across Wales are falling, increasing employment – often insecure, seasonal, or low-paid – is not creating greater prosperity.

In addition, the ratchet effect of low wages over a longer period of time combined with poor education outcomes at Year 11 for those from the poorest families suggests that low-earning is likely to continue.

As increasing numbers of workers fail to earn a basic living wage, the gap between those who have and those who have not is both wide and getting wider.

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Campaigners urge Welsh Government to adopt proportional representation for Local Elections

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CAMPAIGNERS are calling on the Welsh Government to introduce the Single Transferable Vote (STV) system for local elections, following moves by two councils to shift away from the First Past the Post (FPTP) system being blocked on technical grounds.

Yesterday (Nov 14), Ceredigion Council voted narrowly, with an 18 to 17 majority, in favor of adopting STV. This follows Gwynedd Council’s decision last month, where 65% of councillors backed the move. However, both councils have been prevented from implementing STV due to a requirement for a two-thirds majority under the Local Government and Elections (Wales) Act 2021.

In recent consultations, public support for STV has been overwhelming, with over 70% in Gwynedd and 67% in Ceredigion favoring the change. Only Powys Council rejected the proposal, despite 60.5% of its respondents supporting STV. Campaigners argue that the current system deprives voters of representation, citing that over 100,000 people were denied a vote in the 2022 elections due to uncontested seats.

The Electoral Reform Society Cymru (ERS Cymru) highlights the contrast with Scotland, where the introduction of STV for local elections in 2007 has significantly reduced uncontested seats. According to ERS Cymru, Scotland has had fewer uncontested seats in the last four elections combined than Gwynedd Council recorded alone in 2022.

Jess Blair, Director of ERS Cymru, said:

“Decisions made in council chambers affect everyone in those areas, so every vote should count. It’s absurd that councils choosing STV are blocked by a technicality, leaving them stuck with an outdated system that denies representation to thousands. The Welsh Government must act to avoid repeating the undemocratic outcomes of the last elections.”

Campaigners are now calling on the Welsh Government to introduce STV across all councils in Wales, ensuring representation that reflects the electorate’s wishes.

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Politics

Alarm over Wales’ domestic violence ‘epidemic’

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DOMESTIC violence against women and girls is the scourge of Wales and a national emergency, Senedd Members warned.

Mabon ap Gwynfor said Welsh police reported more than 45,000 cases of domestic abuse in 2022/23 and almost 10,000 sexual offences the previous year, with many more unrecorded.

Leading a Senedd debate, the Plaid Cymru politician challenged a tendency to believe rural Wales is an exception, with domestic abuse “limited” to urban areas only.

“The evidence shows otherwise,” he said. “Rates of domestic abuse in north Wales are higher than those in the city of London.

“North Wales even faces the same level of sexual crimes as Greater Manchester, which has a population five times the size.”

Mr ap Gwynfor added: “I am afraid the election of President Trump in the US is going to make things much worse as he makes misogynistic attitudes acceptable again.”

He said victims wait a year for support in Cardiff or Merthyr but four months in Swansea, asking: “How can we justify someone’s trauma being dependent on a postcode lottery?”

He told the Senedd that 16 children per 1,000 in north Wales are being seen by sexual assault referral centres compared with a rate of 2.9 per 1,000 in London.

Mr ap Gwynfor said the NSPCC found one in five children have experienced domestic violence, with Childline Cardiff holding 4,000 counselling sessions in the past year.

Calling for urgent devolution, he warned that prosecution statistics suggest sexual violence has effectively been legalised, with victims let down and public trust eroded.

Labour’s Joyce Watson said a vigil will be held outside the Senedd on November 25 to mark White Ribbon Day, the international day for ending violence against women and children.

Ms Watson highlighted her party’s pledge to halve violence against women and girls over the next decade, calling for funding from Westminster to further the aim in Wales.

She told the Senedd: “It is a national threat and it is an epidemic. There’s no getting away from that. It’s deep-rooted, it’s wide-reaching.”

Sioned Williams raised the NSPCC’s calls for sustainable long-term funding for specialist support for children and young people who are survivors of domestic violence.

Her Plaid Cymru colleague Luke Fletcher warned of the “corrosive” effect of social media, calling for a crackdown on misogynistic content targeted at young men.

Responding to the debate on November 13, Jane Hutt pointed to progress made in tackling violence against women and girls but she recognised “so much more needs to be done”.

Ms Hutt, who is Wales’ social justice secretary, highlighted horrifying statistics from July showing that two million women in the UK are victims of male violence every year.

She described domestic violence as a national emergency, with one woman killed by a man every three days and the number of recorded offences up 37% in the past five years.

She hailed the 20th anniversary of the Live Fear Free helpline, a free 24/7 service run by Welsh Women’s Aid and funded by the Welsh Government.

Ms Hutt said she raised evidence of failures in the justice system with Jess Phillips during a meeting with the UK minister

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Politics

Senedd debates Eluned Morgan’s first 100 days as First Minister

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SENEDD members debated Eluned Morgan’s record following her first 100 days, with the First Minister rejecting claims she has failed to stand up for Wales.

Andrew RT Davies led a Conservative debate on the eve of November 14, which marks Eluned Morgan’s hundredth day in office.

He accused the First Minister of letting the country down, pointing to the withdrawal of the universal winter fuel allowance for pensioners and warnings of 4,000 premature deaths.

The leader of the opposition also criticised Labour’s decision to raise national insurance contributions for employers, with unemployment in Wales at 5.3% and rising.

Mr Davies said 4,000 patients have been added to NHS waiting lists since the First Minister took office in August, with a total of 614,000 people now waiting for treatment.

He told the Senedd: “That is a damning indictment of government failure here …. That is not standing up for patients here in Wales, it’s not standing up for clinicians, and it’s not standing up, importantly, for the workforce.”

Rhun ap Iorwerth said Baroness Morgan’s first 100 days have shown little evidence of a change in direction from the Welsh Government.

The Plaid Cymru leader said: “By any objective measure, nothing has fundamentally changed in those 100 days.”

He said Baroness Morgan has no plan to grow the economy nor tackle a crisis in the NHS.

Mr ap Iorwerth accused the First Minister of failing to make the case for replacing the Barnett formula, devolving the Crown Estate, and compensating Wales for HS2 spending.

He said: “I’m afraid that what we’ve seen is Labour in Welsh Government, under the new First Minister, shifting into the mode of defending their masters at Westminster….

“A fundamental difference between Plaid Cymru and Labour is that we will never let Westminster diktat hamper our ambitions for Wales.”

Labour’s Hefin David was unconvinced by the 100-day measure of success, which was coined by former US President Franklin Roosevelt in the 1930s.

He said: “It worked for him; I’m not sure it’s going to work so much across modern politics, which moves so quickly and so differently.”

He suggested the next Senedd election in 18 months will be a much better yardstick.

The Caerphilly Senedd Member pointed out that Wales’ first female First Minister, from Ely, Cardiff, one of the poorest parts of the UK, succeeded against the odds.

Describing Baroness Morgan as a “listening First Minister”, Dr David joked: “She’s the only First Minister who gives me a cwtch every time I see her. I can see Mark Drakeford getting a little worried there. I’m not expecting anything, finance minister.

“But I do think it demonstrates the warmth of Eluned Morgan.”

Responding to the debate, Eluned Morgan reeled off a list of achievements including £28m to cut waiting times, £13m on better end of life care and a new north Wales medical school.

She said £7.7m has been invested in a specialist burns and plastic surgery centre at Swansea’s Morriston Hospital, serving ten million people from Aberystwyth to Oxford.

Baroness Morgan lauded a “landmark” £1bn investment in the redevelopment of Shotton Mill, Deeside, protecting 137 jobs and creating 220 more.

She claimed the Labour Welsh and UK Governments also secured a better deal for Tata steelworkers, accusing the Tories of failing to budget for a £80m transition fund.

“This is a lengthy list,” she said. “But it could be longer and it will be longer as we continue to deliver…. The first 100 days demonstrates how Welsh Labour is delivering real investment, real jobs, real support for communities – not promises and pledges but delivery.

“I am so proud of everything this government has already delivered since I became First Minister and I’m optimistic about what we can achieve as we move forward.”

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