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Social mobility stalls in Wales

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Limited: Upward mobility in Wales

FOLLOWING the publication in late 2017 of its State of the Nation 2017: Social Mobility in Great Britain report, all four members of the UK Government’s Social Mobility Commission decided to stand down from their roles on the Commission, citing concerns about the lack of progress towards a ‘fairer Britain’.

The State of the Nation report warned that: ​”​​Britain is a deeply divided nation. Those divisions take many forms. Class, income, gender, race. In recent years, each has been the subject of much scrutiny. But one form of division that has received far less attention is that based on geography.​”​

Almost a quarter (23%) of all individuals in Wales live in poverty – ‘higher than in all regions in England and Great Britain, except London and the West Midlands’.

While the Joseph Rowntree Foundation’s UK Poverty 2017 report, explains that of the four UK nations, Wales consistently has the highest levels of poverty, and these levels are only slightly lower than London, and similar to those of England’s North East.

Looking at early years’ education, west Wales fares conspicuously well, with over 80% of children in receipt of school meals in Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion meeting and exceeding the targets set for their personal development.

However at Key Stages 2 & 3, while Carmarthenshire retains mid table status and Ceredigion tops the attainment table, Pembrokeshire slides down the table to 16th out of 22 Welsh local authorities.

A more worrying underlying trend across all Welsh local authority areas is that in no Welsh local authority area do more than half of pupils eligible for free school meals attain the equivalent to A* to C grades at GCSE level.

According to the Joseph Rowntree Foundation’s UK Poverty 2017 report, the attainment gap between children from richer and poorer backgrounds at the age of 11 years old has fallen in recent years from 26% to 14%. However, by the age of 16 years old (Key Stage 4) the attainment gap is 31%. A huge amount depends on how well a young person does at school in year 11. Whether they can go on to study A levels or even do an apprenticeship often depends on getting the golden ticket of 5 A*-C GCSEs.

Yet the latest 2016/17 GCSE Examination results show that a huge proportion of our young people are not getting to this level, with those who are eligible for Free School Meals (FSM) doing much worse.

The cohort sitting their GCSE exams last year were the first to take the new versions of GCSE Maths and English. The overall proportions of year 11’s achieving 5 A*-C GCSEs including maths and English/Welsh first language have dropped from 60.3% in 2015/16 to 54.6% in 2016/17. There is also a dramatic drop in students achieving any 5 GCSEs A*-C, from 84% to 67%.

Many more young people who are eligible for FSM are leaving school without the qualifications they need. The proportion of year 11’s that were eligible for FSM who achieved 5 A*-C GCSEs including maths and English/Welsh language dropped by 7 percentage points since 2015/16, and more worryingly have dropped by 30.3​% for any 5 A*-C GCSEs, compared to 5.8% and 15.4% for those who were not eligible.

The State of the Nation report explains that at Key Stage 4 the biggest attainment gaps are to be found in some of the least deprived areas of Wales. Monmouthshire has the lowest concentration of deprived areas in Wales but has an attainment gap for disadvantaged pupils of over 41%. But even if good educational outcomes are achieved, across west Wales the opportunities to earn more than the Living Wage are limited.

Over a quarter of people employed in Carmarthenshire earn below the Living Wage and the figures for Ceredigion (29%) and Pembrokeshire (32%) is even worse. While the unemployment rates across Wales are falling, increasing employment – often insecure, seasonal, or low-paid – is not creating greater prosperity.

In addition, the ratchet effect of low wages over a longer period of time combined with poor education outcomes at Year 11 for those from the poorest families suggests that low-earning is likely to continue.

As increasing numbers of workers fail to earn a basic living wage, the gap between those who have and those who have not is both wide and getting wider.

 

News

Game of Thrones star urges voters to back anti-DARC parties

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ACTOR Jerome Flynn has urged voters in Wales to back parties opposed to the proposed DARC radar scheme at Cawdor Barracks, saying the issue could be decided by the next Welsh Government.

The Pembrokeshire-based Game of Thrones star, also known for Soldier Soldier and Robson & Jerome, made the appeal in a video released by PARC Against DARC on Tuesday (May 5), just two days before polling day in the Senedd election.

Radar row enters election campaign

Flynn urged voters in Ceredigion Penfro and across Wales to support Plaid Cymru or the Green Party, saying both parties had pledged to oppose the project.

The Ministry of Defence has submitted a planning application to Pembrokeshire County Council for 27 radar antennas and associated infrastructure at Cawdor Barracks, near Brawdy.

The scheme forms part of the Deep Space Advanced Radar Capability programme, linked to the AUKUS defence partnership between the UK, US and Australia.

The MOD says DARC would help detect, identify and track objects in Earth orbit, supporting military and civilian satellite security.

Opponents claim the radar would industrialise part of the Pembrokeshire countryside, damage the setting of the national park, and increase the area’s military significance.

Flynn says project ‘not a done deal’

In the video, Flynn described the election as “probably the most crucial vote we’ve made in 25 years”.

He claimed the next Senedd could play a decisive role in the future of the project, saying: “I’m here to say, it’s not a done deal because Plaid Cymru and the Greens have both made party-led decisions to say no to Westminster.

“We’re not having such a thing on our beloved coast.”

Flynn also described St Davids as “the spiritual home of Wales” and criticised what he called “the most unspeakably abominable planning application” on the edge of the Pembrokeshire Coast National Park.

Campaign steps up pressure

PARC Against DARC said it welcomed Flynn’s intervention and said it had distributed 22,000 leaflets around Pembrokeshire in recent weeks.

The campaign group said First Minister Eluned Morgan’s recent comments on the scheme did not go far enough.

A spokesperson said: “While Eluned Morgan has come out in the final hour to call for DARC to be halted, we fear this does not go nearly far enough.

“Plaid Cymru and the Green Party have both made it their national party policy to oppose and stop DARC, so we have no doubt of the authenticity of their commitment.”

The group is also urging residents to submit objections to Pembrokeshire County Council before the current publicity period ends on May 20.

Welsh Government role

Campaigners say the next Welsh Government could intervene by “calling in” the planning application, meaning Welsh ministers would take responsibility for deciding it rather than leaving the final decision with Pembrokeshire County Council.

That possibility has made DARC a significant local election issue in Ceredigion Penfro, where Eluned Morgan is Labour’s lead candidate, Elin Jones leads the Plaid Cymru list, and Amy Nicholass heads the Green Party list.

Under the new Senedd voting system, voters will elect six Members of the Senedd for the constituency using a proportional list system.

PARC Against DARC said this meant there was “far less need for tactical voting” and argued that voters opposed to the radar could support either Plaid Cymru or the Greens.

Wider concerns

Campaigners have repeatedly claimed that the radar would make Pembrokeshire a potential military target and draw Wales further into US military strategy.

They also say the project raises environmental, health, democratic and security concerns.

Supporters of the scheme argue that space monitoring is becoming increasingly important as satellites are used for communications, navigation, defence and emergency infrastructure.

Flynn ended his video by saying: “Vote with your heart because we can make a difference here, we could put in a government that cares about our land, our people and our environment.”

Whatever the outcome of Thursday’s election, the intervention by one of Pembrokeshire’s best-known residents is likely to keep the DARC controversy high on the political agenda.

 

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Landlords in Wales face new anti-discrimination laws

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New rules from June 1 will make it unlawful to refuse renters because they have children or receive benefits

LANDLORDS in Wales are being warned to prepare for new anti-discrimination laws which come into force at the beginning of June.

From Monday, June 1, it will be unlawful for landlords and letting agents to discriminate against prospective contract-holders because they have children or receive benefits.

The change follows the Renters’ Rights Act 2025, which mainly reforms renting law in England, but also extends key anti-discrimination protections into Wales.

The Welsh provisions will be incorporated into the Renting Homes framework and will apply to occupation contracts. Unlike the civil penalty regime used in England, breaches in Wales may amount to a criminal offence, with enforcement handled by local authorities and cases dealt with through the courts.

What landlords cannot do

From June 1, landlords and agents must not deter people from applying for a property because they have children or receive benefits.

They must also not refuse or restrict access to viewings, prevent prospective tenants from receiving information about a property, or exclude them from entering into an occupation contract on those grounds.

The measures are aimed at ending blanket “no children” or “no benefits” policies, which campaigners have long argued unfairly shut families and low-income households out of the private rented sector.

Landlords will still be allowed to carry out affordability checks and assess whether a property is suitable. For example, a landlord may still decide that a particular room or property is physically unsuitable for children, but the decision must be based on the property itself rather than a blanket ban.

Paperwork deadline

Under the new rules, landlords will need to issue either a new occupation contract or a statement of variation to reflect the changes.

The statement can be served up to fourteen days after the rules take effect, meaning landlords should act by June 14.

Leading North Wales estate and lettings agent Cavendish, which has offices in Mold and Ruthin, says it has been advising landlords ahead of the deadline.

Nicola Blake, Operations Director at Cavendish, said: “While much of the focus in recent months has been on the introduction of the Renters’ Rights Act in England, some of the changes are also impacting Wales.

“As of June 1, landlords in Wales will be subject to stringent anti-discrimination laws and failure to adhere to the new legislation could result in a criminal prosecution.”

She added: “This is a significant change for landlords in Wales, and we are helping our clients to be ready well ahead of the deadline, completing the required paperwork and ensuring they are fully compliant.”

Landlord seminar

Cavendish will hold a seminar later this year for landlords in Wales, covering legislative changes and advice on managing and improving property portfolios.

The event will take place on Monday, October 26, at Theatr Clwyd. Cavendish recently became a Gold Member of the Mold arts venue.

Cavendish was established in 1993 by Julian Adams, the firm’s chairman, and his then business partner Robert Ikin.

The company now employs more than thirty people across estate agency and lettings, with offices in Mold, Ruthin and Chester. It says it helps more than 600 homeowners move each year and manages around 650 properties.

 

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Academics warn voters need clear reporting ahead of historic Senedd election

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Cardiff University experts say misinformation, coalition arithmetic, public finances and devolved powers are among the key issues facing Wales

CARDIFF UNIVERSITY academics have warned that clear reporting and proper scrutiny will be vital as Wales prepares for one of the most significant Senedd elections since devolution.

The intervention comes ahead of polling day on Thursday (May 7), when voters will elect a larger 96-member Senedd under a new voting system.

Professor Stephen Cushion, from Cardiff University’s School of Journalism, Media and Culture, said UK-wide or English-produced news remained the main source of political information for many people in Wales.

He warned that reporting on devolved issues such as health, education and law and order did not always explain clearly which government was responsible.

Professor Cushion said this could leave people confused about what applies to Wales, particularly when audiences increasingly see political headlines on social media without reading the full context.

Dr Maxwell Modell, a research associate at the same school, said some political news items presented parties arguing with each other without enough independent assessment of their claims.

He said broadcasters sometimes set out several party positions side by side, leaving viewers to make sense of them without journalistic scrutiny.

Dr Keighley Perkins said turnout could be higher than at any point since devolution began, given the possibility of political change.

She said coverage should focus less on perceived disengagement and more on the issues facing the next Welsh Government and scrutiny of party policy positions.

Misinformation warning

Dr Bethan Davies, based in Cardiff University’s Security, Crime and Intelligence Innovation Institute, warned that there was significant scope for misinformation and disinformation to spread during the campaign, particularly with the rise of AI-generated content.

She said inauthentic accounts sometimes used the logos of reliable news outlets on videos to make audiences believe they were genuine.

Professor Martin Innes, co-director of the same institute, said foreign interests seeking to influence or interfere in politics remained a persistent problem.

He said there should be clear ministerial and senior official accountability for combating foreign online political interference, with resources matching the scale of the challenge.

Economy and public finances

Professor Melanie Jones, of Cardiff Business School, said the future performance of the Welsh economy should be a key focus for the next Welsh Government.

She said improving living standards depended on addressing Wales’ productivity gap with the rest of the UK, which would require long-term commitment and investment in people and infrastructure.

Professor Robert Huggins, of the School of Geography and Planning, said Cardiff was developing as a hub for creative and high-tech industries, but regeneration was less obvious in the South Wales Valleys.

He said the next Welsh Government would have “much work to do” to improve prospects for people living in those areas.

Guto Ifan, from the Wales Fiscal Analysis programme, said difficult choices over spending and taxation were likely after the election.

He warned that if the UK Government sticks to its current spending plans, growing NHS spending alongside manifesto commitments on childcare, education, transport, social care and taxation would require significant cuts to some public services or tax rises.

He said manifestos were largely silent on how those trade-offs would be managed.

Welsh identity and coalition arithmetic

Professor Richard Wyn Jones, of the Wales Governance Centre, said Wales was becoming “less British”, with younger voters increasingly identifying as Welsh only or moving away from national identity altogether.

He said those who felt Welsh but not British tended to be more left wing and socially liberal than those who felt both Welsh and British, which he said was good news for Plaid Cymru.

Professor Laura McAllister said the expanded Senedd would need sharper scrutiny and the ability to challenge government if the increase in members was to be justified.

She said Wales also needed to avoid a “race to the bottom” in political behaviour if public trust was to be rebuilt.

Dr Jac Larner said the general polling trend showed the race to be the largest party remained between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, with other parties competing for third place or below.

However, he said finishing first could matter less than it appeared.

He said whichever party led on seats would face coalition arithmetic, adding that Plaid Cymru had more credible potential partners in Labour and the Greens, while Reform had fewer options.

The Herald has carried detailed election coverage in recent weeks, including candidate interviews, graphics, explainers on the new voting system, and analysis of the Ceredigion Penfro contest.

Cardiff University said the experts were available for further comment throughout the campaign.

 

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